Heroic (World rank: #3) vs. Sprout (World rank: #30) 

Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-685) | Sprout (+485)

Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (-180) | Sprout +1.5 (+145)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+195) | Under 2.5 (-250)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Flashpoint 3
  • Heroic - Rating past three months: cadiaN 1.16 | TeSeS 1.13 | sjuush 1.10 | stavn 1.09 | refrezh 1.08
  • Sprout - Rating past three months: faveN 1.18 | -slaxz 1.12 | kressy 1.04 | Spiidi 0.98 | denis 0.97

H2H Data

  • These rosters have never faced each other. These teams did face in October 2020, but the rosters have both had multiple changes since then. Heroic & Sprout both faced Complexity in the past 3 months, with Heroic winning Mirage 16-12 & Nuke 16-14 while losing Train 10-16 and with Sprout winning Dust2 19-16 but losing Mirage 6-16 and Vertigo 10-16.

Projected Maps

    Sprout removes Overpass

    Heroic removes Dust2

    Sprout picks Mirage

    Heroic picks Nuke

    Sprout removes Inferno

    Heroic removes Vertigo

    Train is left over

  • Overpass & Dust2 should be the first two maps removed. There are not any maps that Sprout will feel comfortable on against Heroic outside of maybe Dust2, but perhaps they go for Mirage first. I believe we will see Heroic pick Nuke, but they might be looking at this series as a chance of practicing another map. Heroic has a very strong map pool and Sprout should not have a chance, especially once Dust2 is removed.

Heroic - Key stats on Mirage past three months (8 maps): 7-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 78.3% round win percent after getting first kill

Heroic - Best performers on Mirage past three months (8 maps): stavn +51 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | refrezh +40 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | cadiaN +34 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | sjuush +16 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating

Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past three months (7 maps): 6-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 77.8% round win percent after getting first kill

Heroic - Best performers on Nuke past three months (7 maps): TeSeS +35 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | refrezh +38 K/D Diff, 1.23 Rating | stavn +5 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating

Sprout - Key stats on Mirage past three months (14 maps): 7-7 W/L record, 60.7% pistol round win percent, 70.8% round win percent after getting first kill

Sprout - Best performers on Mirage past three months (14 maps): faveN +82 K/D Diff, 1.31 Rating | kressy +20 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating | slaxz- +7 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating

Sprout - Key stats on Nuke past three months (20 maps): 9-11 W/L record, 47.5% pistol round win percent, 68.6% round win percent after getting first kill

Sprout - Best performers on Nuke past three months (20 maps): faveN +18 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating

Analysis

  • Sprout is currently on a 10-map losing streak against Tier 1 opponents, so it should come as no surprise that I am predicting a 2-0 victory for Heroic. They are a heavy favorite, but I still like taking Heroic -1.5 at (-180) odds. Heroic has won 32 of their 41 maps played with this new lineup in the past three months, and they have only dropped series to elite teams: NAVI & Gambit. Sprout has had mixed results in the past three months, with wins on 50 of their 96 maps played during this time. They have been playing against solid Tier 2 opponents, but Heroic has certainly been facing tougher competition while also winning more consistently. I think the 10-map loss streak increases to a 12-map loss streak on Wednesday in a series that should be an easy 2-0 for Heroic. It is difficult to say who will have the biggest day for Heroic for DFS because their entire roster is capable of top fragging. I probably like TeSeS the most since he has had the highest ADR for this team in the past three months and he plays very aggressively especially on the T side.

G2 (World rank: #5) vs. FaZe (World rank: #19) 

Moneyline Odds: G2 (-155) | FaZe (+125)

Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+185) | FaZe +1.5 (-230)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Flashpoint 3
  • G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.14 | huNter- 1.14 | JaCkz 0.98 | AmaNEk 0.97 | nexa 0.96
  • FaZe - Rating past three months: Twistzz 1.14 | broky 1.08 | coldzera 1.03 | rain 1.00 | karrigan 0.86

H2H Data

  • These rosters have faced each other twice in the past three months, with G2 winning both series. The first series on March 17th during ESL Pro League Season 13 was a 2-0 sweep for G2, 16-9 on Nuke and 16-13 Inferno. The most recent series on April 28th during IEM summer 2021 Qualifiers was a 2-1 win for G2 with a 16-11 win on FaZe’s pick of Train, a 5-16 loss on their own map pick of Mirage, and a 16-14 win on Dust2 as the decider map. 

Projected Maps

    FaZe removes Vertigo

    G2 removes Overpass

    FaZe picks Nuke

    G2 picks Inferno

    FaZe removes Train

    G2 removes Mirage

    Dust2 is left over

  • Vertigo & Overpass should be removed right off the bat. Nuke makes the most sense for the map pick of FaZe and Inferno seems likely for G2 with Dust2 as the decider map. However, none of these maps are set in stone and we could always see something else. Perhaps FaZe go for a map like Mirage that they have played more and have had more success on. Just last week, we saw G2 pick Train against Astralis and win 16-7, so the maps could depend on what these teams have been working on as well as the match-up. Both teams made changes to their roster in the past few months, so I will be focusing on the stats with just the current roster.

G2 - Key stats on Nuke past three months (6 maps): 4-2 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 77.9% round win percent after getting first kill

G2 - Best performers on Nuke past three months (6 maps): NiKo +12 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | huNter- +15 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating | AmaNEk +17 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating

G2 - Key stats on Inferno past three months (9 maps): 7-2 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 73.8% round win percent after getting first kill

G2 - Best performers on Inferno past three months (9 maps): huNter- +21 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | NiKo +20 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | AmaNEk +5 K/D Diff, 1.03 Rating

FaZe - Key stats on Nuke past three months (5 maps): 1-4 W/L record, 60.0% pistol round win percent, 59.6% round win percent after getting first kill

FaZe - Best performers on Nuke past three months (5 maps): broky +12 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Twistzz -2 K/D Diff, 1.00 Rating

FaZe - Key stats on Inferno past three months (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 74.5% round win percent after getting first kill

FaZe - Best performers on Inferno past three months (4 maps): Twistzz +26 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | broky +32 K/D Diff, 1.28 Rating | coldzera +26 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | rain +1 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating

Analysis

This new FaZe lineup has struggled since bringing karrigan in as IGL and they have only won 12 of their 29 maps played. I still have faith that karrigan can help lead this team to success, but we have not really seen any of that yet. Meanwhile, G2 has been consistently winning with victories on 21 of their 32 maps played in the last month. There is some obvious history between these teams with the star player for G2, NiKo, having left FaZe Clan at the end of 2020 to join G2. The introduction video for Flashpoint even shows a cartoon version of NiKo ripping off his FaZe jersey with a G2 jersey underneath, so this storyline is still relevant as ever. Last time these teams played each other, NiKo had the most kills on the server with 73 and his next closest teammate was JaCkz with 50, so it is safe to say NiKo carried in this recent ‘revenge’ spot. G2 does not have as strong of a map pool as some of the other top CS teams in the world and FaZe will feel like they have a chance on any of the maps played. Still, I have to favor G2 here based on recent history. I like G2 moneyline at (-155), but I do not see this being a clean series for them necessarily. They may still win 2-0, but I think these maps will play out competitively regardless. NiKo & huNter- should be great plays for DFS, but broky and Twistzz look like good options on the other side as well, so you could go a few different ways with this.

*Favorite Stacks: Heroic

*Favorite Captain Plays: TeSeS, cadiaN, stavn, huNter-, NiKo, broky, Twistzz

*Favorite Value Plays: stavn, refrezh, nexa, AmaNEk, coldzera