BIG (World rank: #8) vs. Complexity (World rank: #10) 

Moneyline Odds: BIG (-105) | Complexity (-120)

Map Handicap: BIG +1.5 (-285) | Complexity -1.5 (+225)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Flashpoint 3
  • BIG - Rating past three months: XANTARES 1.10 | syrsoN 1.08 | tabseN 1.05 | k1to 1.00 | tiziaN 0.92
  • Complexity - Rating past three months: blameF 1.20 | k0nfig 1.13 | poizon 1.04 | jks 1.02 | RUSH 0.89

H2H Data

  • These rosters have faced twice in the past three months, with BIG taking both series 2-0. The map picks were the same each time and BIG won Complexity’s pick of Mirage 16-12 in March and 19-16 in April. BIG took their own map pick of Dust2 16-7 in March and 19-16 in April. As you can see, the most recent meeting between these teams had both maps go to overtime, so it was a very competitive series. 

Projected Maps

    Complexity removes Train

    BIG removes Inferno

    Complexity picks Mirage

    BIG picks Dust2

    Complexity removes Overpass

    BIG removes Nuke

    Vertigo is left over

  • I am expecting the map selections to be similar as last time, which means we should see Mirage and Dust2. Vertigo also makes the most sense to me as the decider map. Complexity may want to switch things up based on their recent history against BIG, but Mirage and Dust2 should be locks.

BIG - Key stats on Mirage past three months (12 maps): 7-5 W/L record, 54.2% pistol round win percent, 75.3% round win percent after getting first kill

BIG - Best performers on Mirage vs. Complexity past three months (2 maps): k1to 75 kills, 38 deaths, +37 K/D Diff | XANTARES 41 kills, 32 deaths, +9 K/D Diff | syrsoN 40 kills, 36 deaths +4 K/D Diff

BIG - Key stats on Dust2 past three months (13 maps): 9-4 W/L record, 69.2% pistol round win percent, 76.6% round win percent after getting first kill

BIG - Best performers on Dust2 vs. Complexity past three months (2 maps): XANTARES 45 kills, 27 deaths, +18 K/D Diff | syrsoN 44 kills, 32 deaths +12 K/D Diff | tabseN 44 kills, 36 deaths, +8 K/D Diff

Complexity - Key stats on Mirage past three months: 11-8 W/L record, 65.8% pistol round win percent, 75.1% round win percent after getting first kill

Complexity - Best performers on Mirage vs. BIG past three months (2 maps): blameF 42 kills, 39 deaths, +3 K/D Diff | k0nfig 46 kills, 48 deaths, -2 K/D Diff

Complexity - Key stats on Dust2 past three months: 3-5 W/L record, 56.2% pistol round win percent, 73.5% round win percent after getting first kill

Complexity - Best performers on Dust2 vs. BIG past three months (2 maps): k0nfig 42 kills, 41 deaths, +1 K/D Diff | poizon 41 kills, 38 deaths, +3 K/D Diff | blameF 38 kills, 37 deaths, +1 K/D Diff

Analysis

  • BIG has looked good as of late, while Complexity has been a bit inconsistent, but I doubt we see another 2-0 for BIG. BIG won Funspark ULTI at the end of April with a reverse sweep over Extra Salt and have been putting up good performances, especially since making some changes to their CT set-ups, which has put XANTARES in more high-impact positions. The H2H stats show that Complexity has struggled recently against this team, but the last series had both maps go to overtime and could have gone either way. With all that being said, I still think this Complexity team has a higher ceiling than BIG and that this is an opportunity to buy low on them. I also think that k1to should cool off relative to the monster performances he put up the last two times. It would be unreasonable to expect k1to to consistently frag at that level. I will have my money on Complexity to win their map pick and I am making a small play on Complexity to win 2-1 at +300 odds, since I do not expect them to beat BIG on Dust2. For DFS, k0nfig is only $5,400 on Draftkings? Sign me up for tons of that. Also, can someone explain to me why RUSH is priced all the way up to $8,200???

 

Fnatic (World rank: #25) vs. mousesports (World rank: #14) 

Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (+160) | mousesports (-200)

Map Handicap: Fnatic +1.5 (-190) | mousesports +1.5 (+150)

Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)

  • This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Flashpoint 3
  • Fnatic - Rating past three months: Brollan 1.05 | Jackinho 1.02 | KRIMZ 0.95 | JW 0.88 | Golden 0.76
  • mousesports - Rating past three months: ropz 1.19 | frozen 1.14 | acoR 1.07 | Bymas 1.02 | Dexter 0.95

H2H Data

  • These two rosters have faced each other one time which was in April 2021 during Snow Sweet Snow 3. Mousesports took that series 2-1 with a 16-14 win on their map pick of Vertigo and a 16-6 win on Mirage, despite losing Fnatic’s map pick of Train 16-12. 

Projected Maps

    mousesports removes Overpass

    Fnatic removes Nuke

    mousesports picks Vertigo

    Fnatic picks Train

    mousesports removes Inferno

    Fnatic removes Dust2

    Mirage is left over

  • This map pool looks so weak for Fnatic. I think we should see mousesports pick Vertigo and Fnatic pick train. The only maps I think Fnatic might win on would be Train and possibly Inferno, so as long as one of those maps gets removed, then the maps should be looking favorable for mousesports.

Fnatic - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): 1-2 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 74.3% round win percent after getting first kill

Fnatic - Best performers on Vertigo past three months (3 maps): Brollan +14 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Jackinho +13 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | KRIMZ 0 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating

Fnatic - Key stats on Train past three months (7 maps): 3-4 W/L record, 42.9% pistol round win percent, 70.7% round win percent after getting first kill

Fnatic - Best performers on Train past three months (7 maps): Jackinho +3 K/D Diff, 1.05 Rating

mousesports - Key stats on Vertigo past three months (13 maps): 7-6 W/L record, 53.8% pistol round win percent, 67.0% round win percent after getting first kill

mousesports - Best performers on Vertigo past three months (13 maps): ropz +49 K/D Diff, 1.18 Rating | frozen +15 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | Bymas +24 K/D Diff, 1.09 Rating

mousesports - Key stats on Train past three months (5 maps): 2-3 W/L record, 40.0% pistol round win percent, 76.1% round win percent after getting first kill

mousesports - Best performers on Train past 3 months (5 maps): ropz +37 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating | acoR +27 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating

Analysis

  • Fnatic has looked better since Jackinho finally took over the role of primary AWP, but I am not sold on this roster. In the last three months, mousesports won 34 of their 63 maps played. In that time, Fnatic have played only 24 maps of which they won seven. I think Fnatic could maybe win on Train and possibly Inferno, but it is unlikely both of those maps make it into the map pool. The map pool is so weak for Fnatic that I think mousesports is close to a lock here. Therefore, I do not mind paying all the way up to -200 for mousesports moneyline. I am tempted by KRIMZ at such a low price on Draftkings, but I just have no faith in Fnatic, so I am all over mousesports.

 

*Favorite Stacks: mousesports, Complexity

*Favorite Captain Plays: ropz, frozen, acoR, blameF, k0nfig

*Favorite Value Plays: k0nfig!!!, Bymas, jks