Vitality (World rank: #12) vs. DBL PONEY (World rank: #36)
Moneyline Odds: Vitality (-370) | DBL PONEY (+285)
Map Handicap: Vitality -1.5 (-105) | DBL PONEY +1.5 (-120)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+140) | Under 2.5 (-175)
- This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Flashpoint 3
- Vitality - Rating past 3 months: ZywOo 1.27 | shox 0.99 | apEX 0.97 | misutaaa 0.96 | Kyojin 0.89
- DBL PONEY - Rating past 3 months: Lucky 1.12 | body 1.09 | afro 1.09 | Djoko 1.06 | NBK- 1.05
H2H Data:
These French teams have never faced each other. Vitality’s recent match history has been against Tier 1 opponents, while DBL PONEY has been facing Tier 2 teams, but both teams faced ENCE in the past two months. Vitality got swept 2-0 by ENCE during ESL Pro League Season 13, losing Nuke 16-10 and Dust2 16-9. DBL PONEY faced ENCE as part of the Flashpoint 3 Closed Qualifier, and they beat ENCE 2-1, winning 16-10 on Train and 16-14 on Nuke despite losing their map pick of Dust2 16-9.
Projected Maps:
DBL PONEY removes Mirage
Vitality removes Train
DBL PONEY picks Nuke
Vitality picks Dust2
DBL PONEY removes Vertigo
Vitality removes Inferno
Overpass is left over
DBL PONEY consistently bans Mirage and Vitality almost always bans Train, so those two maps should be removed. Nuke is DBL PONEY’s most played map and they usually pick it. Vitality should still pick Dust2, although DBL PONEY has won that map 16 out of 20 times, so perhaps Vitality think twice about their own pick.
Vitality - Key stats on Nuke with Kyojin (4 maps): 2-2 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 81.8% round win percent after getting first kill
Vitality - Best performers on Nuke with Kyojin (4 maps): ZyWOo +39 K/D Diff, 1.45 Rating | apEX +6 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating | shox +10 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
Vitality - Key stats on Dust2 with Kyojin (1 map): 0-1 W/L record, 50% pistol round win percent, 64.3% round win percent after getting first kill
Vitality - Best performers on Dust2 with Kyojin (1 map): ZyWOo +2 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | shox +2 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
DBL PONEY - Key stats on Nuke with NBK- (18 maps): 12-6 W/L record, 52.8% pistol round win percent, 74.4% round win percent after getting first kill, 54.5% T round win percent.
DBL PONEY - Best performers on Nuke with NBK- (18 maps): afro +71 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating | Lucky +46 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | Djoko +31 K/D Diff, 1.13 Rating
DBL PONEY - Key stats on Dust2 with NBK- (18 maps): 15-3 W/L record, 44.4% pistol round win percent, 74.9% round win percent after getting first kill.
DBL PONEY - Best performers on Dust2 with NBK- (18 maps): afro +95 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | Lucky +76 K/D Diff, 1.21 Rating | body +54 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating
Analysis:
This series could be a lot closer than some people might think. DBL PONEY has had several strong performances against solid Tier 2 opponents since adding NBK- back in early March 2021. NBK- originally thought he was done playing with this roster but was given the opportunity to continue with DBL PONEY for Flashpoint. On the other side, Vitality has been on the decline. In the last 3 months, Vitality has only won 13 of their 32 maps played. The roster has changed recently with RpK being replaced by Kyojin, and it seems as though this team may need more time to figure things out. Kyojin is absolutely cracked though he hasn’t really showed it yet with Vitality, and there is upside with him for DFS because sooner or later he put up a strong performance at a value price. I do not have much faith in Vitality right now, so I would consider making a play on DBL PONEY here. Vitality has the more talented roster of course, but I think we should see a close series between these French teams. For DFS, you will probably still want ZyWOo in your lineup even if you think DBL PONEY could win.
Astralis (World rank: #3) vs. OG (World rank: #12)
Moneyline Odds: Astralis (-110) | OG (-115)
Map Handicap: Astralis -1.5 (+235) | OG +1.5 (-300)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+110) | Under 2.5 (-135)
- This is a best-of-three series for the opening round of Flashpoint 3
- Astralis - Rating past 3 months: dupreeh 1.03 | Magisk 1.03 | Bubzkji 1.03 | gla1ve 0.95 | Xyp9x 0.94
- OG - Rating past 3 months: valde 1.15 | mantuu 1.15 | flameZ 1.12 | niko 1.04 | Aleksib 1.03
These two rosters have not faced each other yet. This new OG lineup with niko and flameZ did face Astralis just under a month ago at the BLAST Premier Spring Showdown 2021, but at that time dev1ce was still on Astralis. OG took that series 2-0 with a 16-7 win on their map pick of Inferno, and a 19-17 overtime win on Dust2. Bubzkji played Inferno for Astralis but was substituted for Xyp9x on Dust2.
Projected Maps:
OG removes Vertigo
Astralis removes Mirage
OG picks Inferno
Astralis picks Nuke
OG removes Dust2
Astralis removes Overpass
Train is left over
Vertigo and Mirage should be the two bans. Both teams like Inferno, and both have been good on Nuke. The decider map is less clear, but this is the way I see it playing out. Astralis had an awful T side Train against G2 last week, but I imagine that they’ve worked on it since, even though the map will be out of the competitive pool soon.
Astralis - Key stats on Inferno with Bubzkji, no dev1ce (2 maps): 1-1 W/L record, 50.0% pistol round win percent, 68.8% round win percent after getting first kill
Astralis - Best performers on Inferno with Bubzkji, no dev1ce (2 maps): Magisk -6 K/D Diff, 1.06 Rating | Bubzkji -4 K/D Diff, 1.02 Rating | dupreeh 0 K/D Diff, 1.01 Rating
Astralis - Key stats on Nuke with Bubzkji, no dev1ce (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 72.1% round win percent after getting first kill
Astralis - Best performers on Nuke with Bubzkji, no dev1ce (3 maps): Magisk +31 K/D Diff, 1.48 Rating | Bubzkji +10 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating
OG - Key stats on Inferno with niko & flameZ (4 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 25.0% pistol round win percent, 80.0% round win percent after getting first kill
OG - Best performers on Inferno with niko & flameZ (4 maps): valde +27 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating | Aleksib +6 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating | mantuu +18 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | flameZ +3 K/D Diff, 1.15 Rating
OG - Key stats on Nuke with niko & flameZ (3 maps): 2-1 W/L record, 33.3% pistol round win percent, 73.3% round win percent after getting first kill
OG - Best performers on Nuke with niko & flameZ (3 maps): flameZ +31 K/D Diff, 1.37 Rating |mantuu +28 K/D Diff, 1.34 Rating | valde +19 K/D Diff, 1.24 Rating
Analysis:
I really feel as though OG should be a bigger favorite in this spot. Their current lineup has an incredible amount of firepower and continues to find success. They have a 9-2 record across 11 maps played so far, and as a team they have had a +222 K/D Diff and a 1.26 K/D Ratio during that time. The current Astralis lineup is only 4-4 across 8 maps played. They have shown some signs of promise, but their -26 K/D Diff and 0.96 K/D Ratio so far has not been as dominant. Astralis did face this OG lineup recently, so gla1ve and his team probably have a game plan ready to go for this series, which is something to consider. Still, I think Astralis is not on the same level as OG right now and I will gladly take OG moneyline.
*Favorite Stacks: OG with ZywOo
*Favorite Captain Plays: flameZ, mantuu, valde, zyWOo
*Favorite Value Plays: niko, Lucky, afro