CS:GO DFS Playbook - DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 Semi-Finals 05.08.2021 (2 Series)
By: Tony Lavender - @TonyLavenderML
Gambit (World rank: #1) vs. G2 (World rank: #8)
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-245) | G2 (+195)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+130) | G2 +1.5 (-160)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three semi-final match for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021
- Gambit - Rating for event: sh1ro 1.34 | Hobbit 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.16 | nafany 1.09 | interz 1.01
- Gambit - Rating past 3 months: sh1ro 1.26 | Hobbit 1.21 | Ax1Le 1.20 | nafany 1.06 | interz 0.98
- G2 - Rating for event: NiKo 1.16 | huNter- 1.16 | nexa 1.01 | AmaNEk 0.99 | JaCkz 0.96
- G2 - Rating past 3 months: NiKo 1.13 | huNter- 1.14 | nexa 0.97 | AmaNEk 0.98 | JaCkz 0.98
H2H Data:
- These rosters have faced each other only one time with Gambit winning the series 2-1 with a 16-8 win on G2’s map pick of Mirage and a 16-4 win of the decider map, Dust2. G2 did manage to win 16-13 on Gambit’s map pick of Train. This series took place earlier in the event during the Upper Semi-Finals of the Group Stage.
- Gambit Notable Performers (3 maps): sh1ro +26 K/D Diff, 1.40 Rating | nafany 18 entry kills, 1.20 Rating | Hobbit 87.4 ADR, 80.8% KAST
- G2 Notable Performers (3 maps): nexa +1 K/D Diff, 0.97 Rating | huNter- 73.6 ADR, 0.87 Rating
Projected Maps:
G2 removes Overpass
Gambit removes Nuke
G2 picks Inferno
Gambit picks Mirage
G2 removes Train
Gambit removes Dust2
Vertigo is left over
- It can be difficult to predict the map pool at this stage of the playoffs. For example, we saw G2 pick Train against Astralis in the Quarter-Finals on Thursday, which was not at all expected. We will likely see G2 remove Overpass and Gambit remove Nuke, but from there it becomes more speculative.
Gambit - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (13 maps): 9-4 W/L Record, 69.2% pistol round win percent, 82.3% round win percent after getting first kill
Gambit - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (13 maps): Ax1Le +94 K/D Diff, 1.30 Rating | sh1ro +81 K/D Diff, 1.47 Rating | Hobbit +40 K/D Diff, 1.19 Rating
Gambit - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L Record. 50% pistol round win percent, 81.1% round win percent after getting first kill
Gambit - Best performers on Mirage past 3 months (11 maps): sh1ro +117 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | Ax1LE +39 K/D Diff, 1.22 Rating | nafany +6 K/D Diff, 1.12 Rating | Hobbit +9 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating
G2 - Key stats on Inferno past 3 months (11 maps): 9-2 W/L record, 72.7% pistol round win percent, 75.3% round win percent after getting first kill
G2 - Best performers on Inferno past 3 months (11 maps): huNter- +43 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | NiKo +18 K/D Diff, 1.10 Rating | AmeNEk +12 K/D Diff, 1.08 rating
G2 - Key stats on Mirage past 3 months (15 maps): 9-6 W/L record, 66.7% pistol round win percent, 75.0% round win percent after getting first kill
G2 - Best Performers on Mirage past 3 months (15 maps): huNter- +50 K/D Diff, 1.17 Rating | NiKo +25 K/D Diff, 1.11 Rating
Analysis:
- 2-0 Gambit makes the most sense here. I think that Gambit should beat G2 on any given map. Both teams have been in great form recently, but Gambit is still the best team in the world and G2 has not yet faced such a difficult test with their current lineup. Gambit moneyline feels really safe to me, and Gambit -1.5 map handicap seems like a terrific bet at +130 odds.
Heroic (World rank: #2) vs. NAVI (World rank: #4)
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-165) | NAVI (+135)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+175) | NAVI +1.5 (-220)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three semi-final match for DreamHack Masters Spring 2021
- Heroic - Rating for event: TeSeS 1.39 | sjuush 1.29 | refrezh 1.26 | cadiaN 1.25 | stavn 1.15
- Heroic - Rating past 3 months: TeSeS 1.13 | sjuush 1.10 | refrezh 1.08 | cadiaN 1.17 | stavn 1.08
- NAVI - Rating for event: s1mple 1.38 | electronic 1.06 | Perfecto 1.06 | Boombl4 1.04 | B1T 1.03
- NAVI - Rating past 3 months: s1mple 1.33 | electronic 1.06 | Perfecto 1.01 | Boombl4 0.99 | B1T 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have yet to play each other. NAVI did beat Heroic twice during ESL pro League Season 12, but that was back in Fall 2020 when niko and b0RUP were in the lineup instead of sjuush & refrezh. Heroic has been in much better form since these roster changes were made, so I do not think there is much to gain from looking closely at these past performances.
Projected Maps:
NAVI removes Vertigo
Heroic removes Dust2
NAVI picks Nuke
Heroic picks Overpass
NAVI removes Train
Heroic removes Inferno
Mirage is left over
- Again, it is tough to predict the maps when we are this deep into the playoffs. NAVI should remove Vertigo and Heroic should remove Dust2. Both teams like to play Nuke, but the rest of the map picks are not as clear
Heroic - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (8 maps): 7-1 W/L record, 62.5% pistol round win percent, 77,2% round win percent after getting first kill
Heroic - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (8 maps): refrezh +39 K/D Diff, 1.27 Rating (6 maps played) | TeSeS +26 K/D Diff, 1.25 Rating | cadiaN +33 K/D Diff, 1.16 Rating
Heroic - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (11 maps): 3-1 W/L record, 37.5% pistol round win percent, 80.4% round win percent after getting first kill
Heroic - Best performers on Overpass past 3 months (11 maps): TeSeS +8 K/D Diff, 1.14 Rating | sjuush +8 K/D Diff, 1.08 Rating | cadiaN +7 K/D Diff, 1.02 rating
NAVI - Key stats on Nuke past 3 months (7 maps): 5-2 W/L record, 64.3% pistol round win percent, 82.0% round win percent after getting first kill
NAVI - Best performers on Nuke past 3 months (7 maps): s1mple +78 K/D Diff, 1.50 Rating | electronic -3 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating | Perfecto +6 K/D Diff, 1.04 Rating
NAVI - Key stats on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): 2-4 W/L record, 58.3% pistol round win percent, 73.6% round win percent after getting first kill
NAVI - Best Performers on Overpass past 3 months (6 maps): s1mple +33 K/D Diff, 1.29 Rating | Perfecto +8 K/D Diff, 1.07 Rating
Analysis:
- I like NAVI as an underdog a lot here. This new Heroic roster has been on fire and has only lost 1 series to Gambit since forming, but I think NAVI will prove to be a difficult match-up for them. We know that Heroic will not go down without a fight and that NAVI never typically win in the cleanest fashion possible, so I do expect a tight series. I look at this series as a 50/50, so I will gladly take NAVI moneyline at +130 odds.
*Favorite Stacks: Gambit, NAVI
*Favorite Captain Plays: sh1ro, s1mple, Ax1Le, electronic
*Favorite Value Plays: Perfecto, nafany, electronic