MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 225 Whittaker vs Romero

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero

UFC 225 comes rolling into Chicago with the best top to bottom card of the year so far. The main event is a rematch of a great fight from last year as Yoel Romero looks to get even with Robert Whittaker but because Romero missed weight the title is no longer on the line! This fight card is stacked, and to give you a sense as to how stacked it is, consider this; the #1 ranked (next fighter in line behind the belt holder) Flyweight in the world, Joseph Benavidez is taking on the #5 Flyweight in the world, Sergio Pettis, and these two aren’t even fighting each other on the main card! Hell, they aren’t even fighting each other on the FS1 Prelim card! The are the 3rd fight of the night which is taking place on the Fight Pass Prelims Portion of the card! Ha! 

It’s a very evenly matched card with a solid mix of long time UFC vets (Arlovski, Guida, Evans), and prospective up and comers (Bektic, Tuivasa, Punk). We should get a good mix of ground fighting as well as striking, and hopefully we should see a healthy amount of blood mixed in with it all!

This is an interesting card from a DFS perspective, as there are about 4-5 “LIVE DOGS”, but in my opinion, their really aren’t any “LIVE DOGS” that I truly like and have confidence in, but I guess that’s why they call them “dogs”. When compiling DFS rosters there are a few different routes you can take; a traditional middle of the road approach is doable this weekend, but if you do work hard enough you can put together a solid “Stars & Scrubs” lineup or two! One thing that I did notice when putting together some example lineups is that there are plenty of options when it comes to lineup construction this weekend, and maybe that’s just because it’s a PPV card and we know quite a few of the fighters, but regardless, there are plenty of different roads to take when compiling rosters for this event. This should allow for some solid variance within GPP’s, and not so much overlap, but who knows….only time will tell! Without further ado, let’s jump into an overview of the matchups, the betting lines, DK salaries, and some other useful info provided directly below here. Below the matchup breakdown you’ll see that I highlighted a number of fighters that I am targeting within the 3 different price ranges (Top-Tier, Mid-Tier, and Live Dogs). Feel free to use this info as you see fit, and use the example lineups for…..well…...an example as to how to build lineups. As always, please feel free to follow me on Twitter during the event as I’ll be giving my commentary, opinions, and some wagers that I feel confident in. You can follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA

CHEERS!

Top Tier

Fighters to target with a salary of $8,600 and greater!

Claudia Gadelha ($9,400) (-405)

Claudia Gadelha (15-3) is 29 and is one of the top 115lbers in the UFC and is just a notch below championship level. She is a very well-rounded fighter with good striking and a really good ground game and should continue to be a top-five strawweight for years to come. But she is coming off of a decision loss to Jessica Andrade and will need a win here to keep her name in the title picture. I could see Gadelha bounce back nicely here and rack up some serious points so long as Esparza is game and is willing to take a beating without quitting. This is what we need in order to score those 110+ DK nights; you need one fighter who is willing to throw strikes with a high volume, will take the fight to the ground by using wrestling, advance positions while on the ground, and also throw strikes while on the mat. On top of your selected fighter having a great offensive output, you also need their competitor to be tough, willing to take a punch and a beating, is able to get back to their feet when taken down, and able to do this cycle over and over again. If you have this recipe that I laid out here, then you could easily have a fighter who could score 120+ points for you and your LU’s. We may have this recipe with this matchup - so long as Esparza is willing to tango and take a beating. We’ll have to wait and see!

PICK: Gadelha, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: Gadelha 10/10

GPP: Gadelha 9/10 (will Esparza tango and take the beating or not? That’s the question)

Joseph Benavidez ($9,000) (-226)

This is an incredibly stacked card, especially when you have Joseph Benavidez (ranked 1st in the Flyweight division) taking on Sergio Pettis (ranked 5th in the Flyweight division) and its hidden, buried on the FightPass Prelims and the 3rd fight on a 13 fight card! Damn! I guess the UFC isn’t messing around with this card! Benavidez is one of the best pound for pound, all-around fighters in the organization. The Team Alpha Male fighter is the second-best flyweight in the world next to champion Demetrious Johnson and has proven it time and time again with a ridiculous record in the Octagon (12-2), and an insane record overall (25-4). The only fighters he’s lost to in his professional MMA career that spans over 12 years (his 1st fight was 6/3/06) are Dominick Cruz (twice) and Demetrious Johnson (twice). That’s pretty incredible when you take a step back and just think about how god damn good Cruz and Johnson are! Both are future UFC Hall of Famers, but Johnson will most likely go down as pound for pound, the best UFC fighter of all time! Benavidez is an absolute stud who can handle his own wherever the fight goes. He can strike with the best of them, and he’s got a ground game that is elite! He is currently riding a six-fight win streak and defeated Henry Cejudo in his last fight. Benavidez is a very well-rounded fighter and is “Mighty Mouse” did not exist then there’s no question he would be the champion.

I really like Benavidez when it comes to my Cash LU’s, especially for a mere $9,000! He’s someone you can rely on to score you 95+ points due to his activity, and keen ability to win. Looking back at the last 5 fights for each of these two talented fighters, Sergio is 4-1 with 4 decision victories while Joseph is 5-0 with 5 decision victories. You typically will not find me investing in fighters who have a recent history of finding their way to the judges’ scorecards to determine the result of their fights, but with the high volumed striking, impressive Fight IQ, and Benavidez’s track record of success, he isn’t one who I’ll turn my back on in a situation like this. For $9k he is a sure fire 85+ point fighter, and we’ll take that in our Cash LU’s all day and night. GPP…….well, that’s another story. If we are looking to take down those large format GPP’s, then we are hunting for the fighters who are going to rack up 100+ points for us, and I think Benavidez’s ceiling is a little lower than we’d like to see. ROster up Joey in your Cash LU’s, and don’t hesitate to take a risk in those smaller GPP formated tourney’s as well by rostering the Team Alpha Male stud who may go down as the best UFC fighter to never hold a belt - no joke!

PICK: Benavidez, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: Benavidez 10/10        

GPP:  Benavidez 8/10

Anthony Smith ($9,200) (-282)

Smith (28-13) is 29 and he’s 4-3 in the UFC. The American had won three-straight fights by knockout including a huge win over Hector Lombard but was knocked out by Thiago Santos in his last outing and decided to move up to 205lbs. Now at light heavyweight, Smith won’t have to cut as much weight and he should have more energy to show off his striking chops. The fact he has been knocked out eight times in his career is concerning as is his historically-poor submission defense, but to be fair to Smith he has shown improvements in recent years on the mat.Smith’s taking on a UFC stalwart in Rashad Evans (19-7) who’s 14-7-1 in the UFC over the course of his 13 year UFC career! Yes, 13 years Rashad Evans has been getting his brain smashed in for the enjoyment of fans like you and I! November 5th 2005 was when Rashad took on Brad Imes during The Ultimate Fighter 2 Live Finale! The rest was history! And unfortunately, Rashad is nearing the end of his rope, while Smith is 29 on paper, but after being KO’ed 8 times, his mind, body, and spirit are probably closer to Rashad’s age of 38! So why am I leaning towards Smith here? Well, it’s pretty simple; Rashad is just not the fighter that he used to be, and I’m banking on Smith’s youth and athleticism being more than what Evans can handle at the ripe old age of 38! Smith also has a pretty big size advantage to boot, and I think this will allow Smith to dictate where the fight takes place and won’t allow Evans to press him against the cage and effectively dirty box and use his elbows in close. This is a big advantage for Smith. Rostering Smith is a risk due to his penchant for being KO’ed, and this is a reason while I’ll be rolling the dice by rostering Rashad Evans in a few of my large GPP lineups, because for $7,000 if Rashad lands that one shot on Smith’s fragile chin, then you just saved yourself a shit-ton of salary and most likely just scorted yourself 100+ DK points as well!

PICK: Smith, TKO, 3rd

Cash: N/A

GPP: Smith 7.5/10

Mirsad Bektic ($8,800) (-240)

Bektic (12-1) is 27 and he’s 5-1 in the UFC. The Bosnian was the hottest prospect in the featherweight division as he ran through his first four opponents in the Octagon only to lose in shocking fashion by late knockout to Darren Elkins in a fight he was dominating. He bounced back from that loss with a TKO win over Godofredo Pepey but still has a lot to prove after that loss to Elkins.I really like Bektic’s fighting style, as it produces a very high ceiling with a lot of upside. He’s well versed in a way that is perfect for the DraftKings scoring system, and these are exactly the guys the we like to focus on when building our rosters! He’s got a hammer of a right hand, powerful takedowns that are extremely difficult to stuff, and has a ground-and-pound game that is vicious and demoralizing when you’re on the receiving end of it! He’s well-versed in his takedowns, and does a great job in advancing position all the while delivering stupidly powerful ground-N-pound to his foes who find it nearly impossible to find their way out from the bottom, eating heavy punches and elbows from the Bosnian. I love Bektic’s game here, and I think it matches up nicely with Lamas’, and could be a situation that produces the highest DK point total on the night, therefore, I’ll have a heavy ownership of Bektic come Saturday night! Lamas is coming off of a VICIOUS KO loss at the hands of Josh Emmett 6 months ago. It was one of those KO losses that you see on highlight reel footage that has you cringing and turning away when the hook clips his chin, rendering Lamas completely out cold! These types of KO’s have me questioning whether or not Lamas is coming back too soon or not - even after taking 6 months off! Lamas is 36 years old and has had 24 pro MMA fights - 13 of them in the UFC. You can’t overlook this, as the damage that Lamas has taken in these fights has to be taken into account, whereas, Bektic is 9 years younger than Lamas, has only 13 pro MMA fights and only 6 of those have taken place in the UFC! Bektic is the much fresher, younger, and crisper fighter when you are comparing the two fighters, and this is a big deal when analyzing fighters. Combine this with the other stylistic factors that I had mentioned earlier in the fighter analysis. We also have some great odds value on Bektic too, as he is ranked as the 7th highest DK salary on Saturday night’s card, but when looking at the current betting lines, Bektic has the 4th best best betting line on the card at -240, ultimately giving us an odds value of -3, and any time that you are better than an odds value of -2, you are doing very well! All of these stats are great, but when you also take into account his fighting style, and how it aligns perfectly with the DK scoring format, then you have a killer prospect in Bektic! I have Bektic at the top of the heap when it comes to potential for scoring, and I’ll be rostering him in all formats come Saturday night!    

PICK: Bektic, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: Bektic 9.5/10

GPP: Bektic 9.5/10

Mid-Tier

$7,900 - $8,500

Charles Oliveira  ($8,400) (-143)

Here comes Chucky!! The man that completely perplexes all of us die-hard MMA/DFS enthusiasts! The Brazilian has most of the tools to be a title challenger, but for some reason he just doesn’t have the skills to tie them all together and wear that gold around his waist. He’s a killer on the mat, holding 9 submission victories within the UFC cage, while his only other UFC win came by way of decision over the current stud in Jeremy Stephens back in December of 2014. “Do Bronx” is only 28, but feels like he should be closer to AARP age, as he made his UFC debut at the ripe old’ age of 20 against Darren Elkins, pulling off an impressive armbar victory only :41 into the very first round. Oliveira is tough to trust though, as he’s been stopped numerous times, both due to strikes and submissions. Over his last 6 fights in the UFC dating back to August of 2015, Oliveira is 2-4 with 2 losses due to strikes, and 2 loses due to guillotine chokes, while he’s also mixed in 2 victories by way of submission! He’s inconsistent, and tough to predict, as you really don’t know what version of Chuck that you’re going to get when that cage door closes behind him. Taking on Clay “The Carpenter” Guida on Saturday night makes this a very difficult fight to predict!

Guida himself also has an impressive resume within the UFC chain-linked fence; holding a 14-11 record within confines of the UFC cage  with 2 KO victories, 4 submission wins, and 8 decision W’s. Guida has a pace that is unlike any other that you’ll see in the UFC - continuing to push forward, mixing in high-volumed striking attacks with a relentless wrestling game that saps the energy from his foe, putting them in a position that has them questioning whether or not they can continue at said pace. Guida can take a punch, and is willing to eat whatever strikes his opponent can throw at him in order to mentally break him. This can often work, and I’m concerned that this matchup with Oliveira may provide Guida with just that opening.

Guida recently took it to Joe Lauzon, punishing him on the feet before winning via ref stoppage back in November of 2017 only 1:07 ino the first round. I wouldn’t give Guida too much credit for this win over Lauzon, as I was questioning J-Lau’s chin, heart, and abilities before entering his fight with Guida. Lauzon should have retired before his fight with Guida, and hopefully he’ll now consider retiring before injuring himself to a point where it could be permanent. Anywho, enough about Lauzon’s sterioration in the cage. Let’s focus back on Oliveira and what we need to do with him in our rosters. I’m not going to beat around the bush here with “Do Bronx” and the risk he poses to our rosters. He’s got a solid upside, as he most likely will end this fight via submission in the 2nd half of the first round. Guida will over-extend himself, opening himself up to strikes in the clinch, which Oliveira is very effective with, and eventually will get taken down before Chuck will be able to lock up a submission and collect his 110 points for our rosters in both GPP’s and Cash games. Sorry for the length of the analysis here, but Oliveira is a unique fighter that constantly has his owners pulling out their hair when watching his fights, as he’s incredibly inconsistent and unpredictable. For example; I had solid ownership of Oliveira when he took on Max Holloway (wish I knew then what I know now about Holloway) back in August of 2015. Chuck ended up crumpling to the floor due to a mysterious esophagus injury that no one saw occur, losing in pretty embarrassing fashion to the future champ. Other times Oliveira has looked like a monster with his killer strikes from the clinch, and elite submission game once he’s able to get his opponent to the ground. This is definitely a risk here, but I think he’s got too much for Guida to handle, especially with The Carpenter now closer to the age of 40 rather than 30. You’ll be rolling the dice, but I like the upside that Oliveira brings to the table.  Another thing to note → Oliveira is taking this fight on short notice, but I don’t think this is a big deal, as Chuck always goes hard early, so I think this one will end pretty quickly.

PICK: Oliveira, Sub, 1st

Cash: N/A

GPP: Oliveira 7.5/10

Curtis Blaydes  ($8,500) (-178)

Blaydes is a solid wrestler who has put up some serious numbers his last few fights out! Against Mark Hunt Blaydes was able to get 10 takedowns, 10 advances, land 56 SS, and score a robust 138 DraftKings points! Solid night to say the least. The fight before against Oleinik was a similar performance where “Razor” landed 4 TD’s, 1 advance, 39 SS, and 1 knockdown, tallying 123 DK points! I have to favor Blaydes again here against a very tough Alistair Overeem, as I’m quite confident that Blaydes will be able to have his way with Overeem, and get the fight to the mat where it is in his world. So long as Blaydes can get inside the striking game of Overeem and not get KO’ed, then he should have a pretty good chance of racking up another 110+ DK points for his owners, which I intend to be one! The $8,500 price tag is very reasonable when you look at his recent performances, and who he is taking on on Saturday night. Some serious upside here at a very reasonable price. I just hope he doesn’t lose all of his teeth in the process, or get completely KO’ed.

PICK: Blaydes, TKO, 3rd

Cash: Blaydes 8.5/10

GPP:  Blaydes 9/10

Colby Covington  ($8,000) (-140)

Covington is an awesome wrestler who loves to push an almost unsustainable pace. So here is a snapshot of what CC has done over his past 4 fights in the UFC from a DraftKings perspective:

• Last fight against Maia he only scored 74 points because it made no sense to go for TD’s and try to fight Maia on the ground.
• Against Kim on 6/17/17 he was able to get 8 TD’s, 1 advance, land 47 SS, and scored 97 points
• Against Barberena CC was able to land an incredible 12 TD’s, secure 3 advances, and land a legit 76 SS, racking up 137 points! Killer night for CC!
• Against Max Griffin he landed 6 TD’s, had 12 advances on the ground, and landed 26 SS, all while scoring 124 DK points!

The line has shifted in CC’s favor since it opened, and this is going to push many people over to CC’s side of things since you can now get a favorite for only $8k in DK dollars! Not a bad deal, but we need to keep CC’s popularity in mind when building our LUs now. CC’s pace is stupidly high, and is really fun to watch!He averages just under 6 TD’s per 15 minutes (5.98) of fight time! His SLpM is averaging 3.09, and his striking defense is really good, and is the 2nd best on the card at only 1.71 SApM. Covington stuffs 88% of TD’s thrown his way, and when you factor all of this in together, you have a fighter who throws and average amount of strikes, has really good striking defense, pushes a stupidly high TD pace, and dictates where the fight will take place. Yes, CC will be highly owned, but I think we need to have a piece of him, as I do believe that he will be on the optimal lineup!

PICK: Covington, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: Covington 8/10

GPP:  Covington 8.5/10

Live Dogs

Fighters with a salary below $7,900, and have a shot at stealing victory

Clay Guida ($7,800) (+118)

You’ll notice that I had Guida’s opponent listed as a rosterable mid-tier fighter above, but I also wouldn’t count Guida out on the flip side as well. He may go down to the elite ground skills of Oliveira, but I wouldn’t count Guida out, as he’s a grinder with a heart the size of his hair. The will and determination that Guida displays is incredible to watch, and you can’t count him out of any fight he’s in, and with Oliveira’s track record of looking for ways out of tough, grinding fights, this could be the perfect match up for Guida to impose his will, mentally break the Brazilian, and take home a TKO or submission victory within the 1st 2 rounds. Don’t be surprised if this happens. And if you have Guida rostered at a palatable $7,800, then you’re going to be laughing all the way to the bank! Guida’s high-intensity offensive game is also a great style to rack up some solid DK points as a LIVE DOG! Guida does a great job of stringing together takedowns with strikes, advances, and fight finishing sequences that keeps his opponents scrambling to stay alive in their fight. Let’s see if Guida’s pressure and mental toughness can overcome the raw athleticism and talent that Oliveira brings to the table. You also need to keep in mind that Guida is fighting in front of his hometown crowd of Chicago, so the place will be rocking for Guida come Saturday night! Combine this with Oliveira’s questionable mental state, and this could easily cause the Brazilian to look for an easy way out come Saturday night. Keep an eye on this, as there may be a great opportunity to win some money by betting  on Guida at +120(ish). Should be fun to watch, regardless the outcome!

PICK: Guida, TKO, 2nd

Cash: Guida 7/10

GPP: Guida 8/10 - a serious roll of the dice, but this could pay off if Guida breaks him mentally

Rashad Evans ($7,000) (+226)

This is a gamble, but I actually really like this gamble. Yes, I have Smith as a fighter to target when it comes to Top-Tier fighters, so why would I have Evans listed as a LIVE DOG to target down here? That seems impossible, right? Well, not so much, as I’ll have a few GPP rosters with Smith included in them, and others with Evans included in them. When it comes down to it, I think that Evans will provide more of an upside for us and our entire roster, as he’s only $7k, so we’ll be able to roster some of the higher priced studs if we include Evans within our roster! On top of that, Smith has been KO’ed quite a few times, so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he could get clipped by Evans and go to sleep in in the middle of the cage! If that comes to fruition, then we’d be sitting pretty with one of our LIVE DOGS racking up 100+ points for us while also saving us a shit-ton of salary and allowing us to roster some of the other high-priced studs. I like Evans here! He’s worth the gamble in my eyes, and is one of the LIVE DOGS I’ll be targeting on Saturday night. I will also throw a small bet on Evans at +226 too, as you know he’s professional and will come prepared and ready for battle. He isn’t one to brush off a difficult fight.

PICK: Smith, TKO, 3rd 

Cash: N/A

GPP:Evans 8.5/10 - I don’t think he’ll be popular, Smith has a weak chin, and Evans is a professional! I like all of these things combined!

Chris De La Rocha ($7,500) (+118)

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. This is a heavyweight fight with an Inside the Distance prop line of -550, which is by far and away the most aggressive odds on the card when it comes to the likelihood of this fight not going to the judges’ scorecards! The next closest Inside the Distance prop line to the -550 for this fight is -320 -- the Arlovski/Tuivasa fight. The line continues to tighten up for De La Rocha, which makes his $7,500 price tag more and more attractive as the fight grows closer! De La Rocha only has 6 pro MMA fights under his belt, while Coulter only has 11, so these two are still feeling out the rhythm of the fight game, and let’s be honest, they’re big boys who like to throw some leather, so the odds are that one of them will be taking a nap in the middle of the cage while the other one parades around a lifeless body with their hands raised screaming to the crowd! Taking a gamble on De La Rocha isn’t a bad idea at all, but let’s make sure that we recognize that this is a “gamble”. It’s an educated gamble, but when you are rostering big guys like this without much experience or footage to review of previous fights, you truly are gambling on De La Rocha, and hoping he lands before Coulter does. If you are comfortable with this, then feel free to roster CDLR, as his upside is solid with a pretty low salary. I tend to like gambling with Rashad Evans over the likes of CDLR, as his salary is $500 cheaper, and Rashad’s floor is higher than CDLR’s in my opinion.

PICK: Coulter, KO, 1st

Cash: N/A

GPP: De La Rocha 7.75/10

Andre Arlovski ($6,900) (+226)

I like Arlovski here for a few reasons:

• He’ll be low owned
• His price tag is stupidly low (too low IMO)
• He’s got a wealth of experience and knowledge in the cage fighting top competition
• Tuivasa is traveling from halfway around the world to fight in the country where Arlovski lives
• Arlovski still has quick, heavy hands that can end a fight quickly!

Don’t get me wrong here, this is a long shot, but because of all of the factors mentioned above, AA is a solid gamble with such a crazy low salary!

PICK: Arlovski, TKO, 1st

Cash: N/A

GPP: Arlovski 7/10

Yoel Romero ($7,100) (+204)

The prior fight between Romero and Whittaker had Romero priced at $7,900, and for some reason this time around the Cuban is priced at $7,100! I don’t think there is much of a change from the 1st fight to this fight, so I don’t really understand why the salary is changing so drastically, but hey, we’ll take it! The first fight between these two had Whittaker winning 3 out of the 5 rounds, so it was a SUPER close fight. It can’t get any closer than that, so why the hell should the salaries head in the opposite direction? Makes no sense. I think that we’ll have a similar result as of the first fight, with Whittaker taking home a decision victory. Romero may land that one devastating punch, knee, or elbow, ending the fight, and if that happens while we’re rostering the Cuban wrestler, then it will be a very joyous night for all of us! I don’t foresee Romero being very highly owned, so I definitely see some value in rostering Romero for $7,100! I won’t have a ton of exposure to Romero, but I’ll have 2-4 of my 12-20 GPP LU’s with Romero included. I may have one or two with Whittaker included, but for the most part I’ll be avoiding this fight as I think it will be rather boring. I’ll focus on Romero as one of my interested Live Dogs, but he isn’t one of my favorites at the top.             

PICK: Whittaker, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: N/A

GPP: Romero 7/10

OTHER LOW OWNED FIGHTERS TO CONSIDER:

• CM Punk                    $7,600 (you never know:)
• Mike Jackson            $$8,600

Example Lineups

GPP

Cash