MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 131 - Rivera vs Moraes

UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera vs. Moraes

You’ll notice that we have taken a different format for this preview, and I think you’ll find it more useful and digestible. I usually breakdown every fight on the card and it produces close to 20 pages of content. I find it hard to believe that there are many people who would read the details of all of the fight breakdowns, so what I’ve done is focus on highlighting only the fighters that I see value in and would consider rostering. I have separated them based on their salaries: Top-Tier, Mid-Tier, and Live Dogs. As you can imagine the Live Dogs are the fighters who are not favored in their fights, but have a chance at outright victory. The most important thing when creating a UFC DK roster is finding those Live Dogs that will win their fights outright, and then layer in the high upside big favorites alongside them. There’s 3 Live Dogs I really like, and a 4th that I would consider on this card, so I think there’s definitely some opportunity to get creative and also roster the top-tier studs as well.

The UFC circus heads into Utica, New York for UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera vs. Moraes. A solid card with some up and coming fighters mixed in with some long time UFC vets. It’s a well matched card that is very top heavy but also gives us 3-4 Live Dogs that we can focus on and combine with the top end talent. This is definitely a card that you want to use a “Stars & Scrubs” type of approach, as I don’t see much value in rostering many mid-tier fighters. It’s just a VERY shallow mid-tier card, so you’d have to get very creative in order to roster fighters priced in the mid-tier. There are 3-4 top end talents that I want on my roster, but we’ll have to roll the dice with the low-end guys in order to make this happen.

Below is a breakdown of each fight, each fighter’s odds, their odds of finishing Inside the Distance, and their DK salaries. Below this table you’ll find the fighters that you should target when creating your rosters, and at the bottom of this article you’ll find a few “example lineups” that you should consider when creating your own lineups. Without further ado, let’s dig in to who you should target for UFC Fight Night 131.

Top Tier

Fighters to target in with a salary greater than $8,500

Gregor Gillespie ($9,500) (-478) 

Gregor Gillespie is a stud. There, I said it. The guy is a stud! He’s scored 107, 128, and 133 DK points in his last 3 fights. He has the perfect style to rack up points, and he’s doing it against a very beatable opponent in +356 underdog Vinc Pichel. Gillespie will be fighting in front of his home crowd, and will have his way with Picel wherever this fight goes. GG has some of the best wrestling pound for pound in the UFC, and is a 4 time D1 All-American and National Champion. He will dictate where this fight takes place, and because of that he has a very high ceiling. I foresee many takedowns and Pichel getting rag dolled about the cage as GG racks up 110 – 125 points for our lineups, and this is the reason why he is my top play on the card – incredible upside, especially when taking his DK history into account. Make room for him on your rosters for both Cash and GPP’s. He will be very popular, but we can’t leave these potential points on the sideline, as he most likely will be on the optimal lineup.

PICK: Gillespie

Cash: 9/10     

GPP: 9.5/10

Walt Harris ($9,300) (-312)

By my numbers, Harris is the 2^nd best DFS fighter on the card from a potential point perspective (Gillespie is #1). He’s got very heavy hands, and he’s facing a fighter, Daniel Spitz, who has proven to have no chin, and is very hittable – not a great combination to have as a MMA fighter. Big Walt has the best Inside the Distance prop line on the card at a pretty awesome -164! Spitz will go down, and he will go down hard! Spitz has be known to stand in front of his opponents with very little head movement, and when you’re facing a man the size of Walt Harris, with the type of power that he has in his hands, it usually doesn’t end well. Let’s be candid, he won’t score 120+ points, because he probably wins by TKO in the 1^st, scoring a solid 100-120 points. This is a score we want to be a part of, and this is why I really like Walt Harris in all formats. Harris is quicker, more athletic, trains at a top camp (ATT), and has impressive power. This won’t be something that Spitz can even closely handle. Harris will be popular just like Gillespie, but he’s pretty much a 100+ point lock for your lineups, and we need to take advantage of those opportunities.

PICK: Harris, KO, 1^st

Cash: Harris 8.5/10

GPP: Harris 8/10

Julio Arce ($8,800) (-203)

28 year old Julio Arce is 14-2 in his pro MMA career, and he’s a (-210) favorite over Daniel Teymur (+175). Arce is very quick, and has very good boxing. Teymur is known to throw winging bombs that don’t often land, and as the fight presses on he often gases and becomes less effective on the feet. This seems like a very predictable fight. Teymur comes out hungry, throwing heavy, winging punches that land sporadically. Arce throws the shorter, quicker punches that are landing at a better rate, but the 1^st round is a very close one between these two. Teymur will become less effective in the 2^nd and start to get pieced up by Arce. Julio uses his quickness and more technical boxing to land whenever he wants as Teymur gases in the later rounds. This fight will either end by TKO in the 3^rd due to Teymur not being able to defend himself, or Arce will score a 100 point decision victory 29-28 on all 3 judges’ scorecards. I like Arce’s upside for his price tag. He’s $8,800, but I think he scores close to 100 points in a decision victory due to Teymur being very hittable in the 2^nd and especially the 3^rd rounds.

PICK: Arce, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: Arce 8/10

GPP: Arce 7/10

Mid-Tier

Fighters between $7,800 - $8,400

Jimmie Rivera ($8,200) (-105)

Rivera is taking on Marlon Moraes in a pretty awesome main event scrap in Utica, NY! This fight will be razor thin, and I wouldn’t be upset with rostering Moraes either, but when I boil it all down, I truly believe that Rivera is just a little bit better in his wrestling and striking, allowing him to very narrowly outpoint the extremely game Moraes. This would be another replay of Till vs. Thompson - super close striking battler - but I’m willing to gamble on Rivera as the only mid-tier play that I really like on this card. I like Rivera’s cardio more than Moraes, and I also think Rivera has one of the best Fight IQ’s in the game, and you know how much I love fighters with high Fight IQ’s! I wouldn’t force Rivera into your lineups, as I do think that this is a very close 5 round decision where the winner scores maybe 85-90 points. A little lower ceiling than I like when it comes to GPP’s, but I wouldn’t mind rostering Rivera in Cash games. Proceed with caution, but if you need a mid-tier guy, don’t overlook Rivera.

PICK: Rivera, Decision, Split

Cash: Rivera 7/10

GPP: N/A

Live Dogs

Fighters with a salary below $7,800, and have a shot at stealing victory

Ben Saunders ($7,600) (+160)

Ben “Killa B” Saunders has been a UFC stalwart, but his best years are behind him. This is obvious, and I normally would not be investing in someone at this point in his career, but when said person is fighting 19 fight UFC vet, Jake “No Chin” Ellenberger, then you have to consider him a favorite, right? Well, technically Saunders is the dog here at +162, and he has a pretty inexpensive DK salary of $7,600. If Saunders can keep his distance, and strike from the outside, then he’ll either eventually catch Ellenberger and his non-existent chin, or he’ll out point him on the judges’ cards. I’ll assume the former happens because I’ve seen just way too many Jake Ellenberger KO loses to have any faith in his chin whatsoever. When scanning the card for Live Dogs, Saunders is one who stands out due to his opponent. No, Saunders doesn’t have a great chin either, but it surely is much better than Jake Ellenberger’s is. I would look for a 1^st round KO for Saunders here, earning us a solid 100 point DK night as a slight dog, and saving us some salary in all formats. Saunders is definitely a risk here, but when looking at his odds of stopping his opponent, I feel good about that happening. Ellenberger doesn’t throw, is very hittable, and likes to get KO’ed. You do the math!

PICK: Saunders, TKO, 1st

Cash: Saunders 7/10

GPP: Saunders 7.5/10

Jared Brooks ($7,500) (+145)

Jared Brooks is priced at $7,500 as he takes on Jose Torres who is making his UFC debut, but he is currently undefeated at 7-0. The former Titan FC bantamweight and flyweight champion is one of the top prospects in the sport and took this fight on short notice when Hector Sandoval got hurt.Torres is priced at $8,700, and yes, he is a stud, but I would not look too far beyond Brooks in this one. Brooks has a very solid wrestling game, and he’s had early success in the UFC getting takedowns and controlling his opponents from top position. His striking hasn’t been anything to write home about, and this one-dimensional MMA game isn’t going to get you too far in today’s UFC. Torres has been pegged by many to be a top notch UFC fighter, regardless of not having had a fight in the organization yet. He’s got some serious slams, and has solid pop in his punches that seems to surprise a lot of his opponents. Odds are that Torres is able to stuff the majority of Brooks’ takedowns and keep the fight standing, outpacing the limited striking of Brooks on the feet, and winning a predictable decision with his superior striking game. So why do I have Brooks as a Live Dog then? DraftKings scoring format is setup for a wrestler with solid takedowns, and when you have an opponent who is athletic and can get back to his feet, which I think Torres can, then it opens the door for the wrestler to rack up takedown upon takedown upon takedown, scoring a solid amount of points even if they lose a decision. I think this may be a good matchup for Brooks to do that. The fact that Torres is also taking this fight on 2 weeks notice is also important when looking for some value in their salaries. Brooks is one of the 3 Live Dogs I do like on this card, as he’s got a solid wrestling game and may have an outside shot of outpointing Torres through top control, but judges are putting much more emphasis on damage today than control, so he will have to throw and land on Torres to really make an impression. Brooks is worth the gamble here! Torres’ salary is too high to roster here, in my opinion.

PICK: Brooks, Decision, Split

Cash: Brooks 7/10

GPP: Brooks 8/10

Gleison Tibau ($7,200) (+265)

I won’t get into too much detail here, but if you need another Live Dog beyond the others outlined within this section, than look no further than Tibau at a mere $7,200. I really don’t love Des Green, and Tibau has been a warrior over the years, but he may be shot as a fighter. Tibau is a solid PUNT play, but I’d rather have Eduardo or Brooks than Tibau. Proceed with caution, but he does have an outside shot at winning this one over the younger and fresher Green.

PICK: Green, Decision, Unanimous

Cash: N/A

GPP: Tibau 6.5/10

Johnny Eduardo ($7,000) (+240)

Yes, I like one more Live Dog here. Not as much as the other ones listed above, but I think there is value here in Eduardo’s $7,000 salary. He’s got a ton of experience and has proven to be super durable in his fights. Eduardo has 39 pro MMA fights under his belt, but has only fought a mere six times over the past 7 years while being on the UFC roster. He’s got a solid Muay Thai game, and he’s incredibly experienced on the feet. He’s seen pretty much everything in his career, and I like investing in guys who have experience like Eduardo and who have a high Fight IQ, which I believe he does. He’ll definitely have his hands full with Wood, as Nate only has 2 decisions amongst his 13 victories. Wood is a lethal striker, but I won’t put him on such a high pedestal against a craft striking vet like Eduardo. I don’t think Eduardo is at the end of his rope just yet, but he’s getting very close. For all we know this could be his last fight, and he gets absolutely dominated by Wood, but I think he’s still got some gas left in the tank. For a mere $7,000 I will definitely be rostering Eduardo in GPP’s and possibly in Cash as well. I love investing such a small amount of salary on a guy with the experience that Eduardo has. Wood has proven to have some holes in his striking defense, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Eduardo starts to figure them out by the 2nd and 3rd rounds and could sneak out a victory, and any victory with a $7k salary is one we’ll take in any format! A limited ceiling, but a Live Dog, and that’s all we’re looking for!

PICK: Eduardo, Decision, Split (this will most likely be a Wood victory though, but worth the gamble)

Cash: Eduardo 7.5/10

GPP: Eduardo 8.5/10

OTHER LOW OWNED FIGHTERS TO CONSIDER:

• Belal Muhammad                  $9,400
• Gian Villante                          $7,700

Example Lineups

GPP

*Pivot to Jared Brooks ($7,500) if you’d like.                                           

Cash

**Pivot to David Teymur if you want to mix it up.