MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 130 - Thompson vs Till

UFC FIght Night 130: Till vs. Thompson

Stephen Thompson takes on Darren Till in a highly anticipated Middleweight bout that hangs in the balance, as Till came in over 3 pounds over weight. The commission has stated that if he comes in over 188 pounds at 1:00 PM EST on the day of the fight, then they will call the fight off! This is a 1st that I can recall in the UFC, and it is incredibly important when it comes to our DraftKings lineups. We’ll all need to stay close to this, and make sure we know what’s going on tomorrow morning, as it could force us to adjust our LU’s based on TIll’s weight, and if the fight gets called off or not. Till says that he typically walks around over that weight - significantly, and that he may need to cut some weight in the morning if he is not below the 188 imposed limit! This is a first, where a fighter in the UFC may have to cut weight on the day of the fight! Is this healthy? Probably not, but he’s a fighter, and I’m sure he wants to fight.

With that being said, we have an interesting card to review here. Take a look and make sure you follow my Twitter account through the night, and early tomorrow morning to get the updates on Till’s weight, and if he’ll be fighting tomorrow or not. Later on tonight I will most likely add another LU or two for both GPP & Cash - assuming that Till doesn’t make 188, and we can’t include Thompson within our LU’s. Feel free to DM me on Twitter - @TJ_Scott_MMA , or you can also email me if that works better for you: TJScottMMA@gmail.com . Let’s make it rain!! 

Undercard

The first fight of the night is a women’s bout in the Bantamweight division, as Xtreme Couture fighter, Gina Mazany takes on Swedish beauty, Lina Lansberg.

Mazany (5-1) is 29 and she’s 1-1 in the UFC. The American was a competitor on TUF 18 but lost to eventual winner Julianna Pena on the show. She was signed to the UFC but lost to Sara McMann only to bounce back with a decision win over Yanan Wu in her last fight. Mazany hasn’t fought a very high level of competition as she came up through the Alaskan regional scene, and it showed as she was dominated by McMann in her UFC debut. Mazany likes to wrestle, and this showed in her bout versus Chinese fighter, Yanan Wu, back in November as she secured 5 takedowns on her way to a Unanimous Decision victory. She ended up only scoring 77 DraftKings points in the Decision victory, as she didn’t land too many significant strikes (38) while she had position on the Chinese fighter while on the ground. This is a concern of mine, as in order to score well in the DK scoring format, you’ll need to mix in strikes (punches, elbows, knees, etc…) while taking down your foe inside the cage.  

Lansberg (7-3) is 36 and she’s 1-2 in the UFC. The Swede has been finished in two of her three UFC bouts against Cris Cyborg and Aspen Ladd in her last outing. She came into the UFC with some hype due to her ground-and-pound but has been kind of a disappointment so far. Yes she has taken on the best pound for pound fighter on the UFC roster in Cyborg, and she also got GNP’ed to a rising star in Aspen Ladd. She definitely has seen a much higher level of competition during her short professional MMA career, but will this experience be enough for her to have her hand raised at the end of the match in the middle of the cage?

Both fighters like to work from the clinch, and Mazany especially likes that position as she often gets the fights to the mat from the clinch position. Once to the ground Mazany likes to work her ground and pound, often capturing victory via TKO ref stoppage or decision victory. I don’t think she’ll have the power or skill to beat many UFC caliber fighters on the mat via GNP. Lansberg is a very tough fighter who has been in deep waters before, and some GNP from Mazany will not be enough for her to give up. This one will go the distance, and as of right now the line currently stands at -135 for Mazany, and it opened at +145. We are getting some significant odds value here in Mazany, as she is the 11th ranked fighter on the card from a betting odds perspective, but only the 15th ranked fighter from a DK salary perspective! We are getting a -4 odds value in Mazany here, and that’s great! Anything over -2 is very good odds value, but everyone else and their mom will be looking at this value in Mazany as well, so she most likely will be highly owned.

This is a coin flip of a fight in my opinion, but I think we’ll be seeing Mazany improving by leaps and bounds with every fight, so we should expect to see a better fighter than we did last time out in Mazany, as she is 29 years old and has been training seriously since being signed by the UFC. I like the odds value we are getting here in Mazany, so I’ll be considering her in all formats. The real question is whether or not she can get Lansberg to the mat or not. If she can’t then it might be a long, boring fight that doesn’t rack up many DK points on either side. Mazany is worth the gamble, especially in large GPP contests, as we’ll be able to save some salary and possibly get a W in the process, and we love that combination! This is a very difficult fight to call, and as much as I love the odds value presented here, I don’t want to be too heavily invested in Mazany because if she goes down in flames in the 1st fight of the morning, then it will make for a long and depressing day. Have a good balance of Mazany LU’s and non-Mazany LU’s. Mix in a Lansberg LU or two as well!

PICK:                                                 Mazany, Decision, Split                                           

Cash Game:                                       Mazany (7/10)

GPP:                                                   Mazany (8.5/10): Ceiling is lower than I’d like to see, but if Lansberg can’t stuff the TD’s, then this could be a solid scoring night for Mazany, and allowing us to save some cap space!

Theodorou (14-2) is 29 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. The Canadian won TUF Nations and has gone on to have a solid career in the UFC as he’s currently ranked in the top 15 at middleweight. Theodorou is a tough grinder in the mold of Brad Tavares who just grinds and pressures his opponents and tries to outlast them for decisions. For the most part he’s successful though he’s lost a couple fights against high-level competition. He likes to kick from range and not engage in striking battles that entertain fans. He is like watching paint dry, and one of the worst fighters to watch from an entertaining perspective in the entire organization! I’d rather watch grass grow than watch Elias fight in the UFC. Sorry.

Smith (15-7) is 37 and he’s 5-4 in the UFC. The American has been very inconsistent in the UFC and it’s mainly due to his chin as he’s been knocked out twice in the Octagon. He does have a very good ground game and underrated submissions but overall is a very beatable fighter.

I don’t see any value in this fight, as it will go to a decision with Elias having his hand raised at the end of it. He will rack up very few points in a decision victory, and he definitely isn’t worth $9,400! Move on to buying fertilizer for your grass and leave it at that.

 PICK:                                                 Elias, Decision, Unanimous                        

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   N/A

Robertson (4-2) is 23 and she’s 1-0 in the UFC. The Canadian lost to Barb Honchak on TUF 26 but was signed to the UFC and submitted Emily Whitmire in her debut. She has won three of her last four fights by submission, with the lone defeat in that period coming to top-ranked Cynthia Calvillo. McCann (7-1) is 28 and she’s making her UFC debut. The Brit has won six-straight fights to get signed to the UFC, with her last three wins coming in Cage Warriors. She has finished half of her fights by knockout so she has some power. Though Robertson has some UFC experience I just think McCann is going to be fueled by the hometown crowd and help eliminate any jitter sto take home a decision win.

McCann’s wrestling is not very good, and you know how much I like to target wrestlers in DK. If McCann can keep this fight standing, then I think she’ll have her way on the feet, and will eventually win via TKO. If the fight goes to the mat, then I think Robertson will have the advantage. This is a tough fight to read, and it really could go either way, depending on where the fight tooks place; on the mat or on the feet. I’ll have some exposure to both fighters, but I’ll be leaning a little more twards McCann in this one. It’s tough to have a solid opinion on this one due to the lack of info and tape on these fighters, but I’ll side with the odds on this one, although $8,900 is a little steep of a price to pay.

PICK:                                                  McCann, TKO, 2nd               

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   McCann (7/10)

                                                            Robertson (6.5/10)

Scott (11-3) is 28 and he’s 3-4 in the UFC. The Brit has alternated wins and losses since debuting in the UFC after competing on TUF Smashes. He has not been able to string together any consistency, though at times he has shown his potential wins over the likes of Michael Kuiper and Dylan Andrews. But losses such as getting knocked out by Jack Hermansson in his last fight have hurt him.

Pedersoli Jr. (10-1) is 24 and he’s making his UFC debut on short notice filling in for the injured Salim Touahri. He is moving up from 170lbs to 185lbs for this fight. The American is on a seven fight win streak and recently defeated UFC vet Nicolas Dalby by decision in Cage Warriors. He is a well-rounded fighter and an intriguing prospect. Even though Pedersoli Jr. is taking this fight on short notice I think he can win this fight. I just haven’t been impressed with Scott and would be looking to fade him against anyone good, and I think Pedersoli Jr. has the potential to be a good fighter.

I like Pedersoli here quite a bit. He’s fast, athletic, has a varied striking game that can come from different angles, while also having a solid wrestling game that can help dictate where the fight takes place. I’ll have some shares of Pedersoli here, but I won’t be overly invested due to the fact that he is taking the fight on short notice, and is fighting up a weight class (185 vs. 170) due to this. It’s a gamble to roster Pedersoli, but I really have no faith in Scott here.

PICK:                                                  Pedersoli, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       N/A

GPP:                                                   Pedersoli (7.5/10)

Tom Breese (10-1) is 26 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Brit won the first 10 fights of his career and was looking like a serious prospect but lost a decision to Sean Strickland in his last fight and hasn’t fought in nearly two years since due to weight-cutting issues. Now that he’s back he’ll look to jump back into the mix at 185lbs, and he’s young enough that he can turn things around quickly. Breese has no wrestling skills, but lands at a pretty solid rate on the feet (3.61 SLpM). Breese’s power isn’t what you’d like it to be when you are considering rostering certain strikers in DFS, but he is effective when striking at range.

Daniele Kelly (13-3) is 40 and he’s 6-3 in the UFC. The Aussie went on an incredible run in the UFC at one point and was looking like a darkhorse contender at middleweight after beating Rashad Evans, but he’s lost two-straight fights to Elias Theodorou and Derek Brunson and hasn’t been looking as sharp lately. I feel like Kelly had a really nice peak but I don’t think he gets back to his winning ways here against Breese.

The Brit is the younger fighter with more upside and I think he takes it to the old man in this one and wins a decision, though a TKO is certainly possible. Kelly will have a difficult time getting on the inside of Breese, and I don’t think that Breese has the power to change the outcome of this fight with one punch. It’s a fight that I’ll be avoiding for the most part, but I may have a small share of Breese in GPP’s ,as Kelly is a tough SOB, and I always like to roster strikers who throw with volume who are facing fighters who can take a punch and are tough. elly will be able to eat punch after punch until the final bell, and this could mean a high scoring affair for Breese if he can continue to throw and land effectively. I’ll have Breese rostered in a few of my large format GPP’s for this reason alone, but I won’t be overly invested in him, as I don’t think he has fight ending power, especially against Kelly. I’ll have a roster or two with Kelly in it as well, strictly as a contrarian play.

PICK:                                                  Breese, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:                                       Breese (7.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Breese (7/10): Price is too high for where his ceiling currently lies.

                                                            Kelly (6.5/10): A contrarian play who’ll only see 1 or two lineups. I don’t mind investing in his heart, determination, and toughness.

Nordine Taleb (14-4) is 36 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. The Frenchman has won two-straight fights in the Octagon including a brutal KO win over Danny Roberts in his last fight. He’s an excellent kickboxer who is very tough to finish and he is finally starting to unlock his knockout power, making him a very dangerous fighter at the moment. He has a high Fight IQ fighting at Tri-Star in Montreal under one of the most tactical coaches in the game; Firas Zahabi. Taleb’s physical talent combined with Zahabi’s tutelage is making him a very dangerous fighter currently! He has the potential to make a run at the Welterweight belt if he can keep the momentum rolling this weekend. His striking is accurate, powerful, and educated. His ground game is solid, but not anywhere near the same level as Silva’s. Knowing how well schooled the Tr-Star fighters are under Zahabi, Taleb will not go anywhere near the ground during this fight, so long as it’s up to him. He’ll look to strike from distance, throwing jabs, crosses, and hooks - softening up the Brazilian before eventually finishing him via TKO, KO, or possibly a decision victory if he decides to toy with Silva and not get overly aggressive with his power strikes.

Claudio Silva (11-1) is 35 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian defeated Brad Scott and Leon Edwards in his first two UFC fights but he has not fought since 2014 due to injuries. I think Silva is a good fighter but that long layoff is a killer. You read that right. Silva has not fought since November of 2014! A 4 year layoff! No doubt, this will play a big factor in who we see in the cage come Sunday morning on the east coast of the US. There will be some serious ring rust here, and not having fought since 2014 will show.

This is an interesting matchup that the UFC put together here, and one that I don’t necessarily agree with. Why would you put one of your hottest fighters in the Welterweight division, Nordine Taleb, up against a physically talented fighter who hasn’t fought in nearly 4 years? This is a recipe for disaster, and could be a situation where Silva gets KO’ed and it has an impact on his mental state for the rest of his career. I don’t know but it is an interesting fight to consider when thinking about rostering both of these guys in DraftKings. I’ll have quite a big share of Taleb in all formats, as he’s got a high ceiling due to the nature of his striking capabilities and the momentum that he takes into this fight. I’ll also have a few shares of Silva due to his skills on the ground, and when you have a fighter who is as skilled as Silva is on the ground, anything can happen! Silva’s dirt cheap at $7,100, and if he can find a way to get Taleb to the mat, then he has a very good chance to submit him before the bell rings signifying the end of the round or the end of the fight. Ring rust will definitely be a factor, but crazy things happen in the sport of MMA, and a simple trip along the cage may allow Silva to jump on Taleb’s back, get his hooks in, and sink in a Rear Naked Choke that would change his life forever! Only time will tell, but Silva’s skills on the ground will push me to have a few shares of Silva.

PICK:                                                  Taleb, KO, 2nd         

Cash Game:                                       Taleb (9/10)

GPP:                                                   Taleb (9/10): His popularity limits his ranking to some degree.

                                                            Silva (7/10): Unlikely he’ll pull this one off, but crazier things have happened, and his ground skills combined with his cheap salary makes him a nice play from a contrarian perspective.

The next fight is an interesting one at Middleweight. New England native, Eric Spicely (10-3) is 31 and he’s 2-3 in the UFC. The American is excellent on the ground and has captured seven career wins by sub, including both of his wins in the UFC. He has shown he can submit top-level opponents such as Thiago Santos as a huge +450 underdog. He’s got some of the best BJJ skills in the division, and possibly in the entire organization, regardless of weight class, but he is almost too one-dimensional, making him very predictable to his foes.

Darren Stewart (7-3, 1 NC) is 27 and he’s 0-3, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brit is lucky to get another fight in the UFC as he’s gone winless and was finished in his last two fights. But his last outing against Julian Marquez won “Fight of the Night” so the UFC is going to give him another shot. If they didn’t win FOTN, then Stewart would have been cut. The Brit has some serious pressure on him this week due to the position he’s in, and the likelihood he’ll be cut if he doesn’t win, and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to this pressure.

This is essentially a striker vs. grappler bout, and I favor Spicely in this one. I just feel like he’ll have a huge advantage if he can get this fight to the ground. That being said, I don’t think he has good durability, and if Stewart connects he could finish him. So it’s a pick for Spicely by submission, but I see a path to victory for the dog so would be cautious about playing this one. Stewart’s cardio is trash, and if it gets halfway through the 2nd round, then I’d suspect that Spicely will get the fight to the ground due to a spent Stewart, and a submission will come shortly after that. Spicely’s striking defense is porous, and if he can’t keep his hands up and defend Stewart's heavy-hands, then it could be a short night for Spicely, and a long flight back home to Rhode Island.

I like Spicely in this one, but it definitely is a risky play, so I wouldn’t put all my “spicy eggs” in one basket here. I like Spicely in GPP’s - both large and small format - as he’s got a high ceiling with his ability to end fights quickly. So long as he can avoid getting clipped by Stewart, he should eventually get the fight to the ground and submit Stewart within having him on the mat for 2 minutes. Don’t rule Stewart out, as it only takes one punch, and the fight and all rounds start where??? Not on the mat! Spicely has the 2nd best Inside the DIstance betting odds on the card at +105, with only Neil Magny besting him with those odds at -175! Spicely’s DK salary of $8,700 is reasonable, because if he does end up winning this fight, it will be quickly and he most likely will win with a score somewhere between 100 - 125 points. A high ceiling, and we like cathedral ceilings - right? Stewart also has a high ceiling, because if he wins he most likely won’t see this fight go into the 3rd round, let alone the 2nd round. I can see him landing some heavy shots on Spicely’s chin, ending this one quickly, and racking up 100 - 120 points on his way to a HUGE victory in his MMA career! A great matchup that we should be targeting in all formats, regardless of which way you are leaning in terms of victory! 

PICK:                                                  Spicely, Submission, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Spicely (8.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Spicely (9/10): He has a high ceiling here, but his striking defense is sub-par, and this could be his achilles heel. If he keeps his hands up and avoids getting clipped by the heavy-handed Stewart, then I could see him cruising to an impressive victory. If he gets clipped, then it could be Stewart with his hand raised in the center of the cage!

                                                            Stewart (7.5/10): I consider Stewart a LIVE DOG here, as Spicley’s striking defense isn’t great, and Stewart has some heavy hands.

Main Card

Jason Knight (20-4) is 25 and he’s 4-3 in the UFC. The American was looking like a future featherweight contender as he put together a four-fight win streak over the likes of Dan Hooker and Chas Skelly but in his last two bouts lost to Gabriel Benitez and Ricardo Lamas. He’s a good fighter, but might have settled into a role as a gatekeeper. He’s got some serious heart when it comes to competing inside the UFC cage, and quickly gained a following after being able to take a punch and continue to come forward. 

Knight didn’t look like himself against Benitez, and rumor has it that he had bronchitis during the fight, and if true, I can attest that bronchitis can be debilitating, and would explain why he looked so awful during the fight. Normally a trash-talking pressure fighter who’s willing to eat a punch to deliver one – or two – Knight was reluctant to engage, likely suffering some PTSD from his brutal KO loss to Lamas. Then again, maybe he just had an off night. It happens. When he’s on, Knight has picked up the nickname of Hick Diaz due to his entertaining verbiage in the cage directed at his opponent in combination with his ability to lay on the volume nice and thick. One punch power he does not have, though the continued attack has resulted in some stoppages in the latter half of the contest. His insane pace, combined with his intense volume striking, has caused his opponents to have unknowingly been pulled into deep waters, testing their heart, ability to eat strikes, and their willingness to exchange a win for scars and a concussion.

Makwan Amirkhani (13-3) is 29 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Iranian had a hot start to his UFC career including a seven-second KO over Andy Ogle but lost a decision to Arnold Allen in his last fight. That bout was over a year ago and he hasn’t fought since. Amirkhani is a solid grappler, but I feel like he may have hit his ceiling already, while I think Knight at least has some more upside. I just feel like Knight is super tough and I think he outlasts Amirkhani en route to a decision win, though I could also see a late finish.

Here’s a mid-range fight that we should definitely be considering in all formats. Both guys have cardio “issues” as the fight approaches the late 2nd round and 3rd round. Their pace and ability to rack up DK points in the 3rd round slow, and it typically will be the round that determines the victor when either of these fighters go to a decision. I like both of these fighters in all formats, and I’ll be leaning towards Knight, as I think he has the bigger heart and this will be the difference maker in this fight. This will be an explosive fight from the beginning, and will be an entertaining fight to watch from the jump! Don’t be surprised if both fighters start the fight with dual flying knees, meeting in the middle of the cage, connecting, and knocking both of each other out simultaneously. They will look to entertain the fans, while also being genuinely pissed at each other! This is a great matchup, and I think could be the Fight of the Night.  

PICK:                                                  Knight, Decision, Split

Cash Game:                                       Knight (7.5/10)

GPP:                                                   Knight (8/10): A high ceiling, but one that could go either way.

                                                            Makwan (7/10): Not a bad choice, as they both bring the volume and passion!

Arnold Allen (12-1) is 24 and he’s 3-0 in the UFC. The Brit is a terrific prospect but has had injury troubles and has only fought once a year since making his UFC debut. He’s been under contract with the UFC for 3 years but has only fought once, but this isn’t a bad thing. I think taking it slow as a young fighter is critical to how they develop over the years, and is able to save their bodies (and minds) during their developmental stages. Allen is well-rounded with finishing skills, and if he can stay healthy he could definitely make a run at the 145 lb title! Allen has a solid amatuer boxing pedigree, and he also owns a BJJ Purple Belt. Combine those attributes with an awesome heart, and incredible will to succeed at anything he does in life, and you have the recipe for a 24 year old stud that could be wearing gold around his waist at some point in the near future! Allen’s southpaw striking is legit, and he continues to improve with each passing fight! I love his passion, athleticism, and ability to out grind fighters that think they are better than him. He’s legit all over the cage, and if he can improve his striking game - specifically his kicking game, then he truly has a chance at the belt!

Mads Burnell (9-2) is also 24 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC. Not only does the Dane own the coolest name in professional Mixed Martial Arts, but he also has a BJJ Black Belt and a cheap $7,000 DraftKings salary - making him a LIVE DOG in my humble opinion! The Dane was submitted by Michel Prazeres in his UFC debut but bounced back with a decision win over Mike Santiago in his last fight. He’s a solid grappler, but we’ve seen his flaws exposed before. Burnell really doesn’t have the striking chops to keep the fight standing, and if he doesn’t focus on that part of his game ASAP, he will find his time in the UFC short.

I consider Burnell a “LIVE DOG” due to his grappling chops. If Burnell can keep Allen planted on the mat, and work his ground skills, then he very easily could pull out a decision victory, or a submission win, This is a BIG “IF” though! Allen’s a stud, but he could get submitted by a highly skilled grappler in Burnell. I’ll be owning shares of Allen for the most part, but I’ll have a share or two of Mads just in case. Lean on Allen, but don’t ignore Burnell. Mark my words; Allen could be a future champ at 145!

PICK:                                                  Allen, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:                                       Allen (9.5/10): He’ll cost you, but the guys legit!

GPP:                                                   Allen (9/10): He’ll be highly owned, but he’s got a high ceiling, and the ability to win wherever the fight goes.        

The co-main event of the evening has Neil Magny taking on Craig “The Thundercat” White. White is replacing Gunnar Nelson on 5 weeks notice and takes on the 18 fight UFC veteran Neil Magny. As no surprise, Magny is an almost 6/1 favorite over the Cage Warriors alumni.

Magny (20-6) is 30 and he’s 13-5 in the UFC. The American has blossomed since being an also-ran on TUF as he’s turned into a legitimate welterweight contender who has wins over the likes of Kelvin Gastelum and Carlos Condit. Magny is a very well-rounded fighter and although durability can be an issue with him overall he’s one of the best welterweights out there.

White (14-7) is 27 and he’s making his UFC debut. The Brit has won four-straight fights in Cage Warriors and holds a black belt in taekwondo, so don’t be surprised to see a flurry of spinning kicks. I think he’s a solid prospect but it’s hard to see him beating such a well-rounded fighter in Magny on short notice. I think Magny takes it to White in this one and welcomes him to the UFC with a quick TKO win.

From a DFS perspective I think Magny is a solid target, but you’ll have to pay up for him at $9,500. If he is going to pay off his high salary, then you’ll need Magny to end the fight late in the 1st round, and hopefully he can get a knockdown before the ref has to jump in to stop the pounding that Magny is delivering. Ideally we’d like to see Magny jump on the wounded foe, advance position a few times, get some strikes in, and then the ref steps in, but that’s just in a perfect world.

PICK:                                                  Magny, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:                                       Magny (10/10): May be tough to payoff the high salary here.

GPP:                                                   Magny (9.5/10): A high ceiling, but will be tough to payoff, like I said above. Roster with caution. I don’t love rostering him with everyone else, but you almost have to, as Magny will most likely be on the optimal LU. Maybe have a few contrarian LU’s without Magny in them.                                                                                  

Snapshot: 

The main event has had a little curve-ball thrown into it if you hadn’t already heard. Till was in the process of cutting weight and received an emergency call from his family. He had to stop cutting weight and drive to the hospital to address the situation. He came back and was 3 pounds overweight. They gave him an additional hour to cut the weight and actually came back an hour later 1 pound heavier, which is strange, and tells us that he really wasn’t cutting weight in that last hour. This is what Thompson said, so take it with a grain of salt. The commission has allowed the fight to go on, as of now, but if he weighs more than 188 pounds in the morning, then the fight is most likely off, so we need to monitor this very closely. We may need to change lineups in the morning based off of this news. Stay tuned to my Twitter account for the most up to date info on the situation, and if we need to shuffle any fighters around.

Stephen Thompson (14-2-1) is 35 and he’s 9-2-1 in the UFC. The American is the top striker at 170lbs and has proven time and time again as he’s put together a terrific record with his only loss in the last six years coming against current UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley. Thompson is an amazing striker with great takedown defense and is one of the top contenders in the welterweight division.

Darren Till (16-0-1) is 25 and he’s 4-0-1 in the UFC. After winning a couple decisions against lesser opponents and looking like he had some potential, he went out in his last fight and knocked out Donald Cerrone. The Cerrone fight opened up eyes about Till, and he talked his way into this big fight against Thompson. I think Till is a good fighter, but he may have bitten off a bit more than he can chew with this callout. This is a striker vs. striker bout so it should be interesting to see how things unfold. Although Till has a lot of potential and the win over Cerrone opened up eyes to his KO power, I just feel like Thompson is the best striker in the welterweight division and I can’t see him losing to another striker. Till has no takedown threat so Thompson will be able to stay on the feet in his comfort zone without having to worry about stopping takedowns. Thompson also has five-round fights under his belt while Till has never gone five rounds. Hey, maybe Till is as good as some of his fans think and knocks Thompson out. I doubt it but crazier things have happened. In my opinion, though, this is a favorable matchup for Thompson stylistically, and I see him outpointing Till on the feet en route to a decision win, with a possibility of a knockout once Till gets tired. WIth Till missing weight, there is a good chance that he will not be in the best of shape and may gas towards the end of the bout.

I really like Thompson here. He will be the more technical striker, especially over 5 rounds. Till’s technique will start to fade as the fight gets into the championship rounds, and this is where the American will start to separate himself from the hometown boy! With the “family issues” arising out of nowhere so late in the week, this could be a recipe for Till not performing up to his potential. I just really like Thompson’s skill set more than I do of Till’s. Yes, Till may have more one-punch power than Thompson, but I think when it comes down to it, Thompson will use his Fight IQ to land strikes upon strikes upon strikes, ultimately showing the judges that Fight IQ is much more important than one punch power over the course of 5 rounds! Thompson is smart enough to use his striking defense to his advantage. He’ll avoid Till’s heavy hands by angling off, using his superior footwork, landing punches when appropriate, and eventually showing the fans what 5 pounds of hamburger meat looks like when rested over the face of an Englishman!

From a DFS perspective I think we’ll see Thompson land punches in bunches! Yes, they may not be “fight ending” punches, but they are effective, and there are a lot of them, and the judges like to see them! Maybe next time Darren, but valid attempt in front of your home fans.

PICK:                                                  Thompson, Decision, Unanimous (LIVE DOG)

Cash Game:                                       Thompson (9/10)

GPP:                                                   Thompson (9/10): Not a guaranteed win, but I think he scores 110+ points over 5 rounds.

                                                            Till (8/10): A contrarian play for a LU or two!                                    

Optimal Lineups

GPP 1

*Thompson: His fight may get cancelled depending on what his opponent weighs-in at tomorrow morning. Follow me on Twitter (@TJ_Scott_MMA) to know what’s going on.

**Can also replace with Mazany if you like her better.

Cash 1