MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 128 - Lee vs. Barboza

 

  

Snapshot:

This Light Heavyweight matchup is an interesting one to consider for our lineups, and a fight that scares the hell out of me. A fight I’d like to avoid from a DFS perspective, but one that I don’t think we can due to both fighters having questionable chins...ugh… Anyway, let’s take a look at this one and see which fighter we should back and

 

Corey Anderson (9-4) is 28 and he’s 6-4 in the UFC. The American was considered a future light heavyweight contender for a while but he’s lost three of his last four fights including back-to-back KO losses in his last two outings. He’s an athletic fighter with decent striking and grappling but his chin is something that will hold him back from ever reaching the top of this division. Not only is his chin highly questionable, but he also doesn’t like to get punched in the face, and this often prevents him from effectively rolling out his striking game. Yes, no one likes to get punched in the face (unless you’re Diego Sanchez or Justin Gaethje), but Anderson REALLY doesn’t like to get punched in the face! The threat of eating a punch in the grill seems to put Anderson on his heels, and negatively affects how he rolls out his own offensive plan, and ultimately this is where his game begins to crumble around him.

 

He’s mentally not prepared to be rocked on the feet, and this causes him to focus most of his attention on defense and not transitioning his defense into offense. A fighter can really never improve their chin and enhance their ability to take a punch and stay on their feet, but a fighter can improve their striking defense and improve the way that they transition from striking defense to offense. If “Beastin 25/8” doesn’t figure it out soon, I have a feeling his UFC career could be nearing an end. His fighting style doesn’t have fans lining up at the doors to get into the arena. His less than average marketability keeps him on a list that no UFC fighter wants to be on. The deadly “not exciting style” list and the “not likeable” list are two fighter groupings that you don’t want to be associated with, and as soon as you slip up while being on one or both of these lists - it’s a pretty quick call that you’ll be receiving from Sean Shelby, the current UFC Matchmaker and Grim Reaper.  

 

Cummins (10-4) is 37 and he’s had an up and down career in the organization. He broker into the UFC as a short notice replacement taking on Daniel Cormier back in February of 2014. He went on to win his next 3 fights, a complement to the favorable matchmaking as he was a solid favorite in all 3 of the matchups, although he did pull off a decision victory over currently #15 ranked Middleweight, Antonio Carlos Junior back in late 2014. Don’t let the Junior Victory fool you, as this was only the 5th fight for the Brazilian grappling wiz. He’s a completely different fighter now.

 

Cummins is 6-4 in the UFC, but 4 of his 6 fights have been won by decision, and he’s been known to look for a takedown and claim victory through positional superiority on the ground. Not a great strategy to employ if you’re looking to get on Dana’s good side. More recently he’s become more aggressive, and more of a risk-taker, but that still does not bury the fact that he is “chinny”, and like I said, this isn’t a characteristic that you can improve on as time goes by. It actually works just the opposite as a matter of fact.  

 

“Durkin” has shown some very good wrestling in the UFC such as in his last two wins over Gian Villante and Jan Blachowicz, but his striking is not good and when you combine this with a weak  chin, then you have a fighter that you’d like to target for an opposition to your rostered fighter! He’s been knocked out four times in the UFC, and he’s a very tough guy but he just doesn’t have the chin to really make a run for the belt. He’s a solid gatekeeper at 205lbs, but from a DFS perspective he’s a wildcard. His toughness can carry you through to a win, and if employs his solid wrestling game, then you could see a pretty high DFS score, but it’s a BIG question mark! His chin exposes him to quick loses, and that’s the absolute worst attribute to have on a DFS lineup, regardless of format!

 

I don’t trust Anderson at all, but I trust Cummins even less. Though Cummins has very solid takedowns, Anderson should have the defensive wrestling to thwart most of Cummins’ takedowns and on the feet Anderson should have a speed and power advantage. I think Anderson outstrikes Cummins in this one and either wins a decision or maybe gets the knockout, but based on how poor his own chin has held up as of late I wouldn’t be rushing to go and bet on him here. There’s just too much risk on both ends to have confidence to lay any money down on either guy. Now from a DFS perspective, you have to target this fight in large entry GPP’s, as either guy could easily put up a 100+ point night and find themselves on the optimal lineup. I’ll have shares of both guys, as they are in that mid-tier that could produce us a solid night of points and we definitely want a taste of that! There’s significant risk, but the upside is too attractive to ignore for a mid-tiered fighter. Come join me at the edge of our seats for this one!

 

PICK: Cummins, Decision, Split

 

Cash Game: Cummins (7/10): A risk, but he’s worth the risk in the mid-tier.

 

GPP: Cummins (8/10): If he can win he’ll score nicely, and hopefully Anderson shows up with his usual glass jaw.

        

   Anderson (7/10): I’ll have a few shares of Anderson too. Definitely more on Cummins, but not going to ignore “Beastin 25/8”!

  

Snapshot:

 

An awesome matchup in the 5th fight of the evening has me drooling a little bit! Siyar Bahadurzada is an Afghani who has transplanted to Jackson-Wink in New Mexico, clearly displaying his desire and commitment to the sport, as he seeks the best coaching and all around lifestyle that their is in the most prominent MMA country in the world. The days of Brazil, Japan, and Russia being known as a hotbed for fighters being born and training full-time is a thing of the past. Most elite level fighters (probably 75% or more) now reside and train in the United State, and most of the best coaches have followed these fighters stateside, or have transitioned from fighting to coaching and stayed in the US. “The Great” is no different, and he’s sought out the top coaches in the game, relying on Greg & Mike to show him the path to success. Greg & Mike in the Morning 101.5 FM, Slammin’ the Hottest Top 40 Hits from Coast to Coast!! No? It was worth a shot at least.

 

Bahadurzada (23-6-1) is 33 and he’s 3-2 in the UFC. The Afghan fighter is an extremely dangerous striker who possesses huge knockout power and he has at times looked great in the UFC. He hasn’t fought in two years, and has only fought twice in 4 years, and this concerns me. Ring rust and an untested gas tank makes me think twice about rostering the Baha Man, but I’ll definitely have shares of him due to his KO power in both hands.

 

Chagas (15-2, 1 NC) is 9 years younger than Siyar, but he also lacks a gas tank that we should have confidence in. Chagas is built like a brick shithouse and has the power to back it up. He’s most effective and powerful with his hands, but I wouldn’t completely sleep in his kicks. He’s reaching the prime ages for a fighter, and the fact that he’s been more active than Bahadurzada in the recent past nudges me closer to the Chagas corner.

 

These two fighters have the lowest Inside the Distance prop bet lines at +178 for Baha and +163 for Chagas, and the overall odds of the fight not going to the judges scorecards is also the lowest on the card at -245! The next closest is the main event at -170! All of these odds tell me that there will be fight-ending fireworks taking place early and often in this one. The fact that the cardio of both of these fighters is questionable at best, also points to a fight ending before the 3rd and final round starting. I’d actually be surprised if we get to the first break between the 1st and 2nd round. I’ll be investing pretty heavily in Chagas here, but I think many people will be, and this will limit my ranking of Chagas in GPP’s. He’s got a high ceiling, especially taking on Bahadurzada who throws with reckless abandon and has little to know cardio. Chagas has never seen any of his 17 fights go to the scorecards if you can believe that, and I don’t suspect that this will change with this fight.

 

PICK: Chagas, Submission, 1st

 

Cash Game: Chagas (8.5/10): A good opportunity to save some salary, and I also feel good in

Chagas’ odds of victory here. He’s definitely a high target of mine on this card.

GPP: Chagas (8/10): His low(ish) salary, and high ceiling is very attractive in any GPP format, but his predicted high ownership level is a little concerning to me and limits his ranking in GPP’s for me, but he very well could be in the optimal lineup, as he realistically could score 120+ points.

 

 

Snapshot:

Ryan LaFlare (13-2) is 34 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. The American is an effective grinder as all of his UFC wins have come by decision, but he is coming off of a brutal KO loss to Alex Oliveira which exposed his striking. He’s a great wrestler, but his standup needs a lot of work. His price tag of $8,600 is way too high in my opinion. He definitely has a chance at winning this one, and his -150 betting line tells me that the bookies expect Garcia to not being able to stuff LaFlare’s takedown attempts, or get up off the ground when LaFlare inevitably hits his takedown. I don’t agree with this assessment, and this is why I see Garcia as probably the hottest LIVE DOG on the card at +130

 

Garcia (15-4) is 5-3 in the UFC. The Dominican native is a dangerous fighter who has at times looked amazing in the UFC, such as his last outing when he submitted Muslim Salikhov. But he’s also had fights where he gassed and lost fights that went into the later rounds. Garcia’s got a solid wrestling game, but not at the same level as LaFlar, so he’ll want to avoid getting taken down by the New Yorker, and if he does get taken down he’ll want to get back to his feet as soon as possible.

 

Garcia’s paths to victory aren’t abundant, but their pretty clear in this one. One of his two paths to victory that he brings to the table is out-wrestling his opponent and using his superior strength to his advantage. Yes, he may be stronger than LaFlare, but he’s not as good of a wrestler as LaFlare is, so he will not want to play in this world come Saturday night. This limits him to one path to victory, and I think ultimately this will be what he relies on if he implements the proper Fight IQ, and I’m pretty sure he will since he’s coming from a great camp known for their intelligence inside the cage. Tristar Gym in Montreal is Garcia’s current home, and it’s leader, Firas Zahabi is a wizard without a cape when it comes to putting together gameplans that will put his fighter in the best possible position to win based on the tools and attributes that he brings to the table. Anyway, back to the 2nd path to victory - Garcia has stupidly heavy hands, and he’s been known to put grown men to sleep without their permission! This will be the path to victory that he will want to pursue, and he should find success in it.

 

This is a fight that could easily have 2 distinct flows to it. Garcia will look like a man fighting a boy based on his strength advantage and powerful striking game, but like most guys why an incredibly muscular physique, if LaFlare can stay conscious beyond the 1st 8:00 minutes, then he’ll have a very good chance at winning by decision, or dragging Garcia into deep cardio waters, and having him succumb to a submission as he looks for a way out late in the 2nd round or anytime in the 3rd round. LaFlare will want to keep the fight in tight during the 1st frame because the more distance that LaFlare gives Garcia to get off, the better opportunity Garcia will have to connect with one of his powerful strikes on LaFlare’s button. If LaFlare can get halfway through the 2nd round, then look for LaFlare to start taking over, completing his takedowns, and out pointing him in the 3rd, and possibly a majority of the 2nd. If it goes to the cards the 2nd round will be the deciding round, and it will all depend on how the judges value wrestling, takedowns, and rabbit punches on the ground versus some heavy punches that land but aren’t abundant.

 

I really like Garcia here from a DFS perspective. Like I said, he has some serious upside, but he could easily let us all down if he can’t stop LaFlare within the 1st half of the fight! I’ll gladly take the risk of scoring 100+ points by rostering Garcia’s $7,600 salary, but don’t come crying to me when LaFlare walks through a couple heavy punches, is able to impose his will, and avoids Garcia’s fight-ending strikes, eventually taking this one into deep waters and winning a very close split decision.

 

I have no interest in LaFlare in any format due to his low ceiling, over-priced salary, and questionable chin. The risk in rostering Garcia makes a lot more sense to me than LaFlare. I’ll have ownership of Garcia in a high percentage of my GPP rosters, but he will be very popular, so be warned that you’ll be kissing your sister with many other entrants in these large GPP’s, but he has a very good chance of being in the optimal lineup if he KO’s LaFlare, which there is a very good chance of happening.

 

PICK: Garcia, KO, 1st    

 

Cash Game: Garcia (9/10): I like his odds of victory, his ability to save us some salary cap space, and his very attractive price tag.

 

GPP: Garcia (8.5/10): A nice high ceiling is very attractive here, but he’ll be one of the highest owned fighters on the card, so buyer beware.

 

Main Card

  

Snapshot:

 

An interesting fight here, and if Miller is able to get takedowns and get top position, this won’t be the first and last time that Jim Miller is found on top of a Hooker…… da dum, tssss….! I couldn't resist! Just kidding obviously. Full disclosure, I have no familiarity of Jim Miller’s private life, or the hooker’s in the New Jersey area. My apologies for offending Jim Miller or the New Jersey based hookers!  

 

Dan Hooker (15-7) is 28 and he’s 5-3 in the UFC. The New Zealand native has quietly turned into one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division, finishing Ross Pearson and Marc Diakese since moving up in weight. Hooker’s move up in weight has allowed him to absorb more damage and to continue to push the pace while having confidence in his cardio and strength

 

Miller (28-11, 1 NC) is 34 and he’s 17-10 in the UFC. The New Jersey native will be fighting in front of his home crowd, and his “people” are known to be very loyal, so expect a wild and loud crowd for possibly Miller’s last fight! If Miller loses, I wouldn’t be surprised if he leaves his gloves in the middle of the cage, which has become the tradition for any long-time MMA vet who decides to retire and wants the spotlight. Miller has long been a top contender at 155lbs but in recent years has settled into his role as a gatekeeper in the lightweight division. He is currently riding a three-fight losing streak and the UFC is doing him no favors matching him up with Hooker.

 

I like Hooker here a lot, as his lanky frame will give Miller serious issues in the striking game. The upside to Hooker’s DFS game is that he will rack up serious striking points at distance, and knowing that Miller is incredibly durable, this bodes well for Hooker to continue to layer punch upon kick, upon punch, upon kick, and if Miller does happen to get inside on Hooker I don’t think he’ll have long term success in there. If the fight goes to the ground, Hooker will have no problem eventually getting back to his feet, using his length and torque to work his way back to his feet, land knees and elbows on the break, and go back to work striking from a distance that gives him a serious advantage. Look for Hooker to have a breakout performance in Miller’s last fight. He’ll be popular, and you’ll have to pay up for him, but his well-rounded game combined with Miller’s durability makes for a high ceiling that Hooker could easily exploit!

 

PICK: Hooker, Decision, Unanimous

 

Cash Game: Hooker (9.5/10): He should be a staple of your Cash game LU’s, but you’ll need to dig deep to pay for him.

GPP: Hooker (9/10): He’s got a high likelihood of walking away with a dominant victory, and Miller’s durability will allow for Hooker to score significant points standing and on the ground, but he’ll be highly owned and will cost you a pretty penny. His ceiling might be one of the highest on the card though. Know the risks, but he is worth it in my eyes.

 

 

Snapshot:

 

Fight #8 is an interesting matchup that is difficult to predict, and has me waffling between both fighters. These is why I’ll be avoiding this one for the most part. I’ll be targeting this fight in DraftKings, but not significantly, as I just don’t have a great feel for this one. When creating my rosters, I like to have confidence in the results of the fights that I’m targeting, and I just don’t have that confidence in this one, so I’m going to tread lightly. The problem is that I could see both these fighters scoring pretty high, I just don’t know which one will get the 100+ points, and which one goes home with the 35 - 50 point tally in a losing effort.

 

Brett Johns (15-0) is 26 and he’s 3-0 in the UFC, and the Welshman is an incredible prospect who is well-rounded and dangerous everywhere the fights go, particularly on the ground as he has an incredible submission game. In his last fight, Johns picked up a rare win via calf slicer over veteran Joe Soto. Now that he has his weight cut perfected, Johns looks like a guy who could be a future title contender, but he’s taking on a fighter who often lulls you into a fighting style that is slow and not exactly what you had dreamt of the night before when you tried to visualize your victory. And this is often why I don’t love to roster fighters who are taking on Sterling. He’s the exact opposite of rostering fighters who are taking on Jim Miller. Analyzing your targeted fighter’s opponent for the strength of his chin, how good his cardio is, the volume of strikes he throws, his well-roundedness, and the overall pace with which he fights, has become a serious component to handicapping attractive DFS fighters on the card. Not exactly something that you need to focus on when handicapping from a betting perspective right?

 

Aljamain Sterling (14-3) is 6-3 in the UFC, and he lost his last fight back in December by a knee delivered by Marlon Moraes, and before that he was 2-2 in his last 4 fights with all 4 fights going to a decision. You know how I feel about decisions, but they aren’t all that bad with the new(ish) scoring DK scoring system, unfortunately Sterling doesn’t have a style that will lend itself to scoring 100+ points a decision victory. In order to pull that off you need a well-rounded fighter who can rack up strikes, get takedowns, advances, and reversals, and has an opponent that can get back to his feet if your fighter does take him down. I think Johns will be able to get back to his feet after Sterling takes him down, but I feel that Johns is more dangerous in pretty much every facet of the game, and this will cause Sterling to proceed with caution, and not accumulate the number of points that we’d like to see for an $8,100 salary.

 

Johns still has plenty of room to improve, especially from a Fight IQ perspective, whereas Sterling has capped out in my opinion. With both fighters being $8,100, and the betting lines pretty much being a coin-flip, I think you need to listen to your gut on this one, but I am leaning towards Johns on this one. There is good reason why the lines and salaries are so close on this one, but I’m sticking my flag in the ground on Johns’ side, as I think it’s his time to shine, while Sterling is on the downside of his career. Touch one to call, but my gut is telling me that Johns is the guy to back here.

 

PICK: Johns, Decision, Unanimous

 

Cash Game: Johns (7.5/10): I don’t mind rostering Johns in my Cash LU’s, but I’d be more comfortable if this fight was taking place in Europe and not in Sterling’s back yard

GPP: Johns (8.5/10): He’ll be popular, but his upside is very attractive for this price tag! That is a stat that I’m thinking of developing - analyzing upside with salary taken into account. Its difficult to put a figure on, as upside is a more subjective factor to take into account, but an important one at that.

 

 

Snapshot:

 

Thiago Santos has been a pleasant surprise in the Octagon as he’s turned into a legitimate title contender and is coming off of four-straight knockout wins. He’s a guy who has some flaws in his defense but offensively he might be the best fighter in the division right now. While David Branch (21-4) is 36 and he’s 2-3 in the UFC, but only 1-1 in his most recent call up to the UFC. Branch’s first cup of coffee with the organization  The Renzo Gracie BJJ Black Belt is a solid wrestler, and has an ever-improving striking game. The New Yorker was a two division champion in WSOF, stringing together 10 straight wins against some pretty tough competition before getting the call from the UFC and extended an offer from the UFC to return to the organization to kick some ass.

 

I just feel like Santos is going to be tough to take down early and as long as this fight is on the feet he has a chance for the knockout. He is fighting with a ton of confidence right now and I think he catches Branch on the chin and knocks him out early in this fight. Branch’s most likely path to victory is with a takedown, and ultimately a submission, but I think Santos will have success in stuffing Branch’s takedown attempts, and will keep this fight on the feet, beating up Branch over the course of the 1st half of the 1st round before landing a fight-ending blow, and causing Branch and his manager to start thinking more deeply about what fights they accept moving forward, as I do believe accepting fights with Rockhold and Thiago Santos back to back is not the smartest career move in the world. He should take a step back and get a fight on the books that gives him a better than 50/50 shot at winning. He needs a confidence builder that will see Branch end the fight by submission or ground N pound, and hopefully this is taken into account!

 

I’ll be rostering Santos in one of my Cash lineups, and I’ll find some space for him in my GPP’s for the most part, but he might be the highest owned fighter on the card from a GPP perspective, so this will be in the forefront of my mind, especially considering he isn’t the cheapest fighter at a smooth $8,900 salary. I’ll mix in some GPP lineups with Branch planted firmly in the lineup as well, as he could very easily find his hand raised in the center of the cage when it’s all said and done if he can get the fight to the ground and patiently await the opening he needs to lock up a submission.

 

PICK: Santos, TKO, 2nd

 

Cash Game: Santos (8.5/10): He’s pricy, but I have a very good feeling he’ll continue his momentum, putting Branch to sleep within the 1st half of the fight.

 

GPP: Santos (8/10): He’s got a nice upside, but you’ll have to compete with the rest of the general MMA DFS population who wants a piece of him too. His ceiling isn’t as high as I’d like it to be for someone who will be this highly owned.

 

Branch (7/10): I don’t mind throwing Branch into a handful of lineups (if I’m putting together 20-30 lineups), as his low ownership goes nicely with his low salary, and he has a very good chance at winning this one in the first round if Santos can’t stuff Branch’s takedown attempts.      

 

 

Snapshot:

 

The 10th fight of the night is a heavyweight bout that has the very popular Chase “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sherman taking on Justin “Big Pretty” Willis. This is one that you should definitely target in all formats. As you know, the big boys have a penchant for putting up big numbers when they end the fight in the 1st round, but DraftKings somewhat leveled the playing field with the new(ish) scoring system. Volume, fight pace, and being well-rounded (especially with takedowns, advances, and groundwork) have become just as important as a fighter who ends his fights quickly. Ideally you’d love a fighter to land a number of significant strikes, get a few takedowns and advances on the mat before the opponent gets back to his feet, and your fighter gets another takedown (aka rinse & repeat) before eventually landing a big shot that gets him a knockdown within the final 30 seconds of the first round before locking up the submission or the ref stopping the fight due to a TKO. This would be the perfect 125+ point night, and these only come about once every 5-10 cards!

 

Justin Willis (6-1) is 30 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The American has a wrestling background but showed off his improving striking in his last fight when he knocked out Allen Crowder. A training partner of Daniel Cormier and Cain Velasquez, Willis looks like he’s part of that next wave of heavyweight contenders emerging. Knowing that he is learning from two of the best heavyweight fighters of all time leads me to believe that Willis will know his way around the cage. There’s something to be said for a fighter who is surrounded by greatness on a daily basis, and is learning the intricacies of the fight game at the highest level! Don’t sleep on this training situation! It will have a bigger impact on the result in the cage than you think, and I’m willing to roster Willis in all formats because of this.

 

Sherman (11-4) is 28 and he’s 2-3 in the UFC. The American is a crowd favorite as he always puts on fun fights and is fun to interact with on social media, but he just hasn’t lived up to expectations in the UFC so far. Coming into the UFC he looked like a knockout artist but so far has just one knockout win in the Octagon, and he himself has been knocked out twice. He has some offensive talent for sure but is too flawed defensively to go far in the heavyweight division. He also doesn’t exhibit the level of power that I’d expect out of a heavyweight at the UFC level. He likes to jab his way into the pocket, and doesn’t throw night-ending punches for the most part. It seems like he’s trying to outpoint his foe more than put his lights out, but maybe he’s realizing something drastic has to be done or he will find himself unemployed pretty soon. Fighters in this position are often the most dangerous, as they are fighting for their job. Desperation can bring out the best in people, and when this person is 6’3” and weighing close to 265 lbs, then this desperation can be very scary!

 

I think Willis fights with a smart game plan here and utilizes his wrestling advantage to take Sherman down and grind him out for either a decision win, or possibly even a finish via ground-and-pound or a choke if Sherman tires out. This ground game combined with ground and pound on the mat often makes for a very high DK scoring technique, and this is why I’ll have a significant ownership of Willis in all formats!

 

PICK: Willis, KO, 2nd

 

Cash Game: Willis (8.5/10): I like betting against Sherman here, but I also love betting with Willis, Cormier, and Velasquez more than anything!

 

GPP: Willis (9/10): I’ll be riding this horse all the way home, as he’ll be able to implement a smarter, more effective game plan than what Sherman will bring to the table! HIgh ownership and a high price tag though, but I see him being in the night’s optimal lineup.         

 

                  

 

Snapshot:

 

Here we go, a fight that could easily be the main event on the card, and will be an awesomely entertaining fight in my opinion! I’m concerned for Edgar’s turnaround after being knocked out for the first time in his professional MMA career! Edgar only has a 7 week turnaround from when he was KO’ed, and not only is this a very short timeframe to have an effective fight camp, but its a very short timeframe to let his brain heal from being knocked unconscious. Many of the experts have said that it is critically important to let the brain fully heal after being knocked unconscious, or receiving a 2nd concussion is much more likely and can have a much greater lasting negative effect on the brain. I’m not sure why Edgar is jumping right back into the cage, but this scares me to some degree, and I wouldn’t trust his chin to be as strong as we’re used to seeing it in years past.

 

He’s been through some wars, and Swanson is quick enough and aggressive enough to get in the pocket, and land the shots that may not have ended the fight during their first fight back in November of 2014, but could possibly end this fight due to the weakness of Edgar’s chin caused by the quick turnaround and the Toms River, New Jersey native never have experiencing a KO strike like he did against Brian Ortega 7 weeks ago. Only time will tell, but as an organization, this isn’t a fight that the UFC should have looked to book or have approved. This reminds me of a similar fight that they booked recently, as Michael Bisping jumped back in the cage quickly with Kelvin Gastelum after going through a war with GSP and being TKO’ed. The UFC should be more cautious with returning fighters to competition after brain trauma, but having the commissions involved throws a wrench into things. If the UFC simply managed things on their own and only delivered an equal to or longer suspension that the commissions deliver, then there should be no issues, just a thicker layer of protection for the fighters IMO.

 

Cub Swanson has reeled off four-straight wins but suffered a submission defeat to Ortega in his last fight. Ortega has ran through both these guys, and a good reason as he stands where he currently does. Edgar beat down Swanson the first time these two fought, when he finished him in the fifth round via neck crank. Edgar was riding high before the first KO loss of his career 7 weeks ago, and how he rebounds from a loss like this - something he’s never experienced before - will determine if Edgar is within 3-5 fights of retirement, or if he has the ability to make a run at the belt again. It’s an interesting question, but I’ll proceed with caution and take a wait and see approach with Edgar.

 

You know that I like to bet against a fighter’s weak chin, and having no idea how Edgar bounces back from the first and only loss of his career is something I see value in, both from a Vegas perspective and a DFS angle. For a salary of $7,200, Swanson is well worth the investment knowing his upside if he does win. It’s not like Swanson is/was a gatekeeper! The guys been battling the best, and winning, for more than a decade! He’s worth the risk.

 

PICK: Swanson, Decision, Unanimous

 

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Swanson (7.5/10): I’d consider Swanson a LIVE DOG in this one. There’s just too many obstacles for Edgar to overcome for him to be this big of a favorite.

 

 

Snapshot:

 

Here we are, the main event -- Kevin Lee vs. Edson Barboza! Barboza (19-5) is 32 and he’s 13-5 in the UFC. The Brazilian is arguably the greatest striker in UFC lightweight history as we’ve seen him land vicious leg kicks and knock opponents out with all eight of his limbs during his UFC run. Barboza’s issue has been his defense as he can get caught and hurt but offensively there just aren’t many fighters who can hang on the feet with him. Barboza doesn’t fare well when the fights gets into deep waters. I just don’t see the “win at all costs” mentality when he gets in to harry situations. This always keeps me from going “all in” on Barboza because his striking is next level! He’s got a great style to watch as a fan, but from a DFS perspective he can be unpredictable, and this isn’t a great attribute to have when consider to roster you as a DFS owner.

 

Kevin Lee (16-3) is 25 and he’s 9-3 in the UFC. The American went all the way to the top of the title picture after winning four-straight fights but he lost via submission to Tony Ferguson in his last fight and needs to bounce back here with a win. Lee has very good wrestling and submissions but his striking isn’t at the level of the top guys, such as Barboza, but his striking has improved greatly since his first few fights in the UFC. His strength still lies on the mat, draped all over his opponents back, but he’s proven to be effective on the feet, and continues to improve.  

 

Though Barboza was taken down by Nurmagomedov in his last fight, I don’t think that’s a fair representation of his takedown defense. I think Barboza actually has really solid takedown defense in general, and I think it will be good enough to stop Lee’s takedowns in this fight. When the fight is standing, though Lee’s striking has looked better as of late there’s no question Barboza is the superior striker, and likely the best striker in the entire lightweight division.

 

I think Baboza stops enough of the takedown attempts by Lee to keep this fight standing for the majority of it and will find his way back to his feet if Lee does prove successful in his TD attempts. Barboza’s experience, pinpoint striking, and takedown defense will keep this fight where Barboza wants it, and he’ll either take home a 5 round decision victory, or will stop Lee in the 3rd or 4th via TKO, or strikes into a submission.

 

With that being said, I really like Barboza here! His one of the best strikers in the Lightweight division, and to get him for $7,800 and pissed off due to his embarrassing loss to Khabib, is a deal you can’t ignore! I’ll be throwing a few units on Barboza as well. This will be a great fight, and this is some awesome matchmaking - you have to give Sean Shelby credit here. It’s a great fight to target, and I’ll have ownership of both fighters, but I like the value and upside I see in Barboza over Lee. We’ll see come Saturday night!

 

PICK: Barboza, TKO, 4th

 

Cash Game: Barboza (7.5/10): Don’t mind if I do. Not a guarantee but a solid bet.

 

GPP: Barboza (9/10): Great upside, cheap price, but ownership is a concern.

                    

  Lee (7/10): Solid upside with his wrestling and finishing game.

 

Optimal Lineups

 

GPP 1

 

 

GPP 2

                

 

CASH 1