MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 223 - Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta

What. A. Week. Wow! This has been the strangest week in UFC history, and it is having a HUGE impact on DraftKings MMA contests. At this point in time it’s Friday afternoon and we don’t know what DraftKings is going to do. Al Iaquinta has stepped up to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov on stupid short notice. Holloway is obviously out, as his weight cut was going poorly and the New York State Athletic Commission forced him to abort his attempts at making the 155 pound weight limit, and withdrew him from the card all together. The Chiesa vs. Pettis fight is off, as Chiesa was injured by flying glass when Conor McGregor single-handedly ruined the card by throwing a dolly through the window of the bus transporting UFC fighters from the Barclays Center to the hotel. Not only was Chiesa injured, but Ray Borg had issues with glass shrapnel being stuck in his eye, and was subsequently taken to the hospital and scratched from his fight. On top of those two injuries, Artem Lobov was pulled from the card due to his involvement in the fracas. So if you’re counting, that’s two fighters pulled from the main event due to health issues outside of the Conor Chaos, two fighters removed from the card due to injuries sustained in “DollyGate”, 1 fighter removed from the card due to inciting “DollyGate”, and 3 fighters that were scheduled to fight these guys who are now hung out to dry. All because of the stupid actions of the company’s biggest star. Appalling.

At this point, I’ve previewed the fights that we know are happening tomorrow night. We still don’t know what DraftKings is going to do, but they should pull this card, and either re-price the fighters or cancel it all together. Waiting to hear at this point. For now, I have not recommended any lineups, as it’s impossible to do without knowing what’s going on. DK still has Holloway as an eligible fighter, so that tells you their priority of MMA right now. Once DraftKings alerts us as to what they are going to do, then I’ll reassess, and create lineups (if needed) then. More to come!

UPDATE - 5:12 (EST): Looks like DK is rolling with the initial salaries. I’ve included 2 lineups at the bottom of the preview. If I were you I’d save my money for another day. 9 fights on the card is not good for DFS purposes.

Undercard

Snapshot:

In the first fight of the night, Magomedsharipov takes on Kyle Bochniak in a 145 pound contest. Magomedsharipov (14-1) is 27 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The Russian is one of the featherweight division’s most intriguing prospects as he’s won 10-straight fights with his last 2 in the UFC. The organization is definitely bringing Zabit along slowly, as they should if they want to build him up as the next big thing. He’s got the talent to be elite, but this is the fight game, and anything can happen. The UFC is handling him with kid-gloves, and it’s starting to become a bit ridiculous. I don’t know if there has been an easier first 3 fights for any fighters career in the UFC. In Zabit’s 1st fight, he beat Mike Santiago as a -420 favorite, then beat Sheymon da Silva Moraes via 3rd round submission as a -525 favorite! He now enters his 3rd fight in the UFC as a -800 favorite over Kyle Bochniak! Talk about a path littered with cupcakes! 12 of his 14 career wins have come via stoppage. He is extremely well-rounded and dangerous in every aspect of the game, and he is still improving. Keep an eye out for this kid in the next few years, but it’s getting a little ridiculous how bad the organization is babying him out of the gate.

Bochniak (8-2) is 31 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American is a tough, durable grinder who has proven he can go the full 15 minutes in the UFC. However, he lacks the elite athleticism and dynamic game that his opponent Magomedsharipov does. This is just a bad matchup for Bochniak on paper against a younger, faster and more dangerous fighter. As tough as Bochniak is, he just isn’t on the same level as Zabit. Bochniak has proven that he’s a competitor, is durable, and has a solid Fight IQ, and these attributes will be the only intangibles that will allow him to survive a few rounds with Zabit.

Magomedsharipov is the highest priced fighter on the card at $9,500, so you’ll have to pay up to roster him. He should score incredibly well due to his impressive well-rounded game, but also because Bochniak is as tough as a $2 steak, and that’s a good opponent to have for your rostered DraftKings fighters! Bochniak should weather the storm for at least a round, and this will allow Zabit to rack up some points. He’ll be very popular, but you can’t leave his 110+ points on the sideline, so I’ll have a significant share of him. I’ll also have Bochniak at about 5-10% owned in my GPP lineups, as this frees up a lot of cap space, and I don’t mind betting on a dog who likes to compete, isn’t scared, and has proven that he has the cardio and Fight IQ to go 15 minutes in the cage with the best in the world.

PICK: Megomedsharipov, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:   Magomedsharipov (9/10): A big favorite with a BIG salary, but a high level of confidence in a solid score here. That’s what we look for in Cash.

GPP: Magomedsharipov (8.5/10): Has the game to score stupidly high, and Bochniak is tough enough to keep the fight going and the points accumulating. He’ll be popular and he’s expensive - the reason for the tempered rank.

Bochniak (6.5/10): Here’s a long shot that I won’t mind taking a risk with. He’ll save you some serious salary cap, and he’s got heart, and I don’t mind gambling on those type of fighters.

Snapshot:

Devin Clark (8-2) is 27 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American was brutally knocked out in his UFC debut by Alex Nicholson but rebounded with two decision wins where he showed off his wrestling, but was then submitted by Jan Blachowicz his last time out. He has some skills but his durability is a real question mark in my opinion. He doesn’t seem to take a punch well, and his cardio is a weakness at this point in his career. He’s been susceptible to bigger fighters using their size and length against him, and this is the exact matchup that he has with Rodriguez.

Michael Rodriguez (9-2) is 29 and he’s making his UFC debut here. The American is coming off of four-straight knockout wins including a KO on Dana White’s Contender Series. Rodriguez is a Joe Lauzon disciple who’s shown solid striking and athleticism early on in his career, although he hasn’t fought very tough competition to this point. He has some serious potential in a weak 205 pound division. Rodriguez also has a big size advantage over Clark, owning an 8 inch reach advantage over the Sioux Falls, SD fighter. We know that Clark doesn’t handle size well. Add in the fact that he has a suspect chin and poor cardio, and I really like Rodriguez’s chance at throwing up a solid DK score!

Looking at the DraftKings pricing on this fight, we definitely have some value that we should expose. The line on Rodriguez has continued to move closer to a pick ‘em as the week as gone on, and by Thursday afternoon the New Englander was a slight favorite at many books. Being able to lock up a fighter with a $7,800 price tag who may be a -120 favorite come fight time is something we HAVE to take advantage of! Factor in he has the 3rd best Inside the Distance (ITD) line on the card at +131, has heavy hands, and is facing a fighter with a questionable chin and poor cardio, and I really like Rodriguez’s chances of throwing up a 100+ point DK night! Lock it up!

PICK: Rodriguez, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:   Rodriguez (9/10): I like his chances at victory here, and we can save some loot too!

GPP: Rodriguez (9/10): I like him in our GPP’s as well! He’s priced below the average at $7,800, and has a solid upside on top of that! Doesn’t get much better than that. I suspect he’ll be highly owned though. Hopefully the fact that he is making his debut will keep his ownership down somewhat.

Snapshot:

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Not a fight I’m excited about at all, and I don’t think I’m the only one with that opinion. It’s a solid card, and this is by far the worst fight on it! Two mediocre women’s 125 pound division fighters who are struggling to stay employed with the UFC. Neither women has a striking game that is impressive, or that will score a lot of DK points. I could see this one being a stalled fight against the cage, or a pretty boring ground battle that also doesn’t rack up points. If they decide to strike at distance, then I have very little hope that the winner of the fight will score over 75 points, and these aren’t the type of fighters that we should be targeting. The only thing that I’ll leave you with is this: if you really want to be contrarian and gamble on an obscure lineup taking down GPP’s, then feel free to roster either of these ladies. Their ownership levels will be very low, but so is there ceiling with a lot of question marks on who will win. All set. Thanks.

PICK: Rawlings, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game:   N/A

GPP: N/A
 

Snapshot:

Evan Dunham (18-6-1) is 36 and he’s 11-6-1 in the UFC. The American is currently on a five-fight unbeaten streak and has re-emerged as a lightweight contender. A durable fighter who has more heart than talent, and that’s not a bad thing in MMA. His grinding pressure can wear down top competitors. He’s hasn’t lost since 2014, so his confidence is riding high.

OAM (10-2) is 29 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. The Canadian is an improving young fighter who is known for his slick submission skills. His striking is still a work in progress but he continues to show improvements every time he fights. OAM’s top control is impressive when he does get his opponents to the mat. The question becomes whether or not he’ll have that success against a very game Dunham.

This is basically a pick ‘em from a betting and a DFS perspective. It’s an accurate representation of the quality of the fighters involved, but when you boil it down, I like OAM’s attributes more than I like Dunham’s heart. OAM pulls out a late sub or decision victory in this one. I will have a fare share of OAM in my lineups with his price tag being a very reasonable $8,100 - right in that mid-tier that we like to find value in! I’ll have a small share of Dunham in some GPP’s, but I’ll be riding OAM pretty hard.

PICK: OAM, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: OAM (7.5/10): Not a guarantee for victory, but I like his talent level versus Dunham’s.

GPP: OAM (8/10): I like his price tag combined with his upside.

In the next fight of the night, veteran scrapper, Joe Lauzon (27-14) enters his 26th fight with the organization, and is known for taking home performance of the night bonuses. His style is aggressive, in your face, and not pretty, but it’s often effective. Lauzon is 33 and he’s 14-11 in the UFC. However he is slowing down and has lost three of his last four bouts, including a vicious TKO loss to Clay Guida in his last fight. Lauzon has been in some wars over his career, and you can’t help but think that his chin is now fading due to the compilation of competing at the highest level for 10+ years!  

Chris Gruetzemacher (13-3) is 31 and he’s 1-2 in the UFC. Gritz has lost his last two bouts via submission but throughout his career on the regional circuit showed he could finish opponents. His ground defense is porous, and this is where Lauzon will try to attack with his slick submission game. If Gritz can’t keep the distance and gets taken down by Lauzon, then it most likely won’t be a great night for him.

Lauzon has shown that his cardio has faded along with his chin. In the recent past he has gassed in the 2nd or 3rd round, and when he gases his striking defense resembles swiss cheese. Lauzon know he needs to get this fight to the ground, but he has a knack for wanting to put on a show, and he knows this is often done by banging in the center of the cage. He needs to avoid a brawl with Gritz, time his shot properly, and execute before his cardio comes into question.

I really don’t like Lauzon with a price of $8,900. His recent fights have been the worst of his career, and he very well could be 1-2 fights away from retirement. I don’t feel comfortable throwing down close to $9k for J-Lau - in any lineup! I don’t think he’ll be highly owned, and he could end this one quickly and rack up 100+ points, so having a few shares of Lauzon wouldn’t be a bad idea if you can afford it. I hate the value, but he could put up a big number. In fact, I like the value that we are getting with Gritz at $7,300! This is me betting on his opponents weak chin and cardio failing him again. Losing your cardio while having a questionable chin is a horrible combination in the sport of MMA, and this presents some serious value for us with the $7,300 Gruetzemacher. He could get a finish of Lauzon

PICK: Lauzon, Sub, 1st

Cash Game:   Gritz (7/10): His ground game scares me.

GPP: Gritz (8.5/10): Some serious upside here at a stupidly low price! He’ll be highly owned because of this, so be prepared, but he’s a great fighter to target in GPP’s - hell, in all formats!

Lauzon (7/10): He won’t be very popular, and this is one of the only reasons that I’ll have some shares of Lauzon.
 

Snapshot:

The 2nd women’s fight of the night pits Karolina Kowalkiewicz (11-2) vs. the red hot Felice Herrig! Felice is on a 4 fight winning streak, seemingly reinventing herself after her last loss - a decision to Page Van Zandt…..3 years ago! In those 4 fights Herrig hasn’t scored less than 76 DraftKings points, and she’s done all of this without being more than a -115 favorite. The betting lines in her last 4 fights read like this: -115, +130, +315, +115. A pretty impressive run based on these odds alone.

KK is 32 and she’s 4-2 in the UFC. The Pole is a very talented fighter who is known for her striking ability and durability. She even has a split decision win over the current champ Rose Namajunas which looks great in retrospect. She’s a technical striker who enjoys the sport. She needs to keep the fight standing to outpoint Herrig, so you can expect KK to be more cautious with her kicking attack than in previous fights.

Herrig (14-6) is 33 and she’s 5-1 in the UFC. Though she was treated as a gatekeeper in her matchmaking earlier in her UFC career, she keeps beating prospects and the UFC had to finally give her a top contenders bout. Herrig is a very well-rounded fighter who has a solid ground game as well as solid striking skills. Her rebirth as a fighter has been impressive to watch, as she’s been doubted throughout her career with the UFC.

Neither fighter has a knockdown in their UFC careers, and I don’t expect that to change in this fight. If KK is able to keep the distance, and prevent from getting wrapped up along the cage, then she should be able to outpoint Herrig on the feet and earn a decision victory. KK’s ceiling is pretty low from a DraftKings perspective, as the odds of her stopping Herrig are pretty low, and I think she’ll employ a more cautious striking approach against the “Little Bulldog”. For $9,000 I don’t see the upside in rostering KK. The ceiling is too low to justify the risk of losing, and the height of the ceiling. On the other hand, Herrig is an attractive $7,200 fighter, as she’s proven to have some serious heart to go along with her talent, and this has made her into one of the most underrated pound for pound fighters on the UFC roster. I don’t mind Herrig in GPP’s, as her game is well-rounded enough to score well when she physically gets her way. If she can get KK to the mat, then she has the potential to put up a real big DFS number!

PICK: KK, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:   N/A

GPP: Herrig (8/10): Not a bad play here considering the price tag and the potential for a big night!

Snapshot:

Al Iaquinta (13-3-1) is 8-2 in the UFC, although he’s only fought once in the past 3 years. The lack of activity over the last 36 months is mostly due to a spat between the Long Islander and UFC brass. AI opted to start a career in real estate, but was eventually matched up against a wilted Diego Sanchez 12 months ago. The realtor is one of the top lightweights on the UFC roster and is coming off of five-straight wins with four of those coming by knockout. He’s had some trouble with grapplers earlier in his career, and this still is a big question mark for me when assessing AI. With only having fought once in 3 years it’s tough to determine whether or not he’s continued to progress and evolve his game. He has the talent and craziness to be successful in the stacked Lightweight division, but his inactivity has me proceeding with caution.

Philadelphia’s been producing some champions recently, and Paul Felder (15-3) looks to continue the streak for the City of Brotherly Love with a stoppage victory over the hometown boy. Felder is 33 and he’s 7-3 in the UFC. He’s a dangerous striker and is coming off of three-straight knockout wins, re-emerging as a contender in the process. Felder came into the UFC being known for his power striking game that was accentuated by his spinning attacks. In his recent fights Felder has shown a new side to his game that has been impressive! Felder’s close quarters striking game is lethal, highlighted by vicious elbows that are fight ending. Felder’s big for a 155er, and he’s shown an ability to effectively unleash them on his wounded foes against the cage and the mat.

This is one of the best fights on the card and could win “Fight of the Night.” I’m expecting it to be a standup war between two guys not afraid of throwing down. Both of these guys are ranked in the top 5 of projected DraftKings points on this card, and this is a good reason to target this fight for GPP’s. My numbers have AI holding a slight advantage over Felder, but they are both towards the top of the rankings. My numbers aren’t to be used for betting blindly. In order to properly handicap any fight you need to be able to subjectively take into account intangibles, like only fighting once in 3 years. This factor continues to stick out to me. Felder has stayed very active, fighting top flight competition, and you have to give him a leg up because of that. This isn’t a sport that is forgiving. You can’t take your eye off the prize and commitment to training, and I’m concerned that Iaquinta has. This has me leaning towards the Felder camp in this one. He will be able to physically push Iaquinta against the cage and implement his game plan, so long as he can keep from getting laid out by one of AI’s bombs.

PICK: Felder, Dec, Split

Cash Game:   Felder (7/10): I don’t love this play, but I like his upside.

GPP: Felder (8/10): Close fight that could go either way, but Felder has been the more active fighter recently, and that plays a factor here.

AI (7/10): I’ll have some shares of Al as well, but I’ll lean more towards Felder.

Main Card

Snapshot:

Another fight that I really am looking forward to is Calvin Kattar vs. Renato Moicano in a 145 pound battle. Kattar (18-2) is 30 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC, winning his UFC debut against Andre Fili on short notice as a big underdog, and most recently stopping the previously unbeaten Shane Burgos in the 3rd round of their fight back in January of this year. The Boston Finisher is riding a 10-fight win streak at the moment and looks like he could be a featherweight title contender as he’s proven he can beat some of the top fighters in the division early in his career. Cattar has a great Fight IQ, an educated boxing game, and a ground game that is UFC sufficient. The sky’s the limit for the Bostonian making the short ride down from his homeland to continue his path of destruction through the featherweight division.

Moicano (11-1-1) is 28 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian is a very solid fighter in his own right and has shown terrific submissions throughout his career as well as improved striking in recent bouts. Moicano beat Jeremy Stephens in a decision victory that showed he had greatly improved his striking defense along with his effective jab.

This is excellent matchmaking here as both guys are really solid featherweights. But I believe Kattar is a guy who could soon be contending for the belt, and I think he’s going to win this fight. Moicano is tough enough that he likely will be able to survive to a decision, but I am picking Kattar to continue his win streak and land himself a top-10 opponent in his next outing. With that being said, you won’t be seeing much of Kattar in my lineups. The $8,700 salary is way too high for Kattar in this matchup. The betting odds have basically made this a pick ‘em, so there is a ton of Line Value that we are getting on Moicano’s $7,500 price tag! If you are looking to save some salary and give yourself a solid shot at rostering a winning fighter, then look no further than Renato Moicano behind door #2! In my opinion, he’s rosterable in both Cash and GPP formats. I truly think that Kattar’s ability to game plan and effectively implement said plan will be the difference in this fight, but it’s a damn close fight, so rolling the dice on Moicano isn’t a bad play.  

PICK: Kattar, Decision, Split

Cash Game:   Moicano (7.5/10): A legit shot at victory for a reasonable price.

GPP: Moicano (7.5/10): I don’t love his ceiling against a heady fighter like Kattar, but we need to roster a few Live Dogs, and I think we got one here.
 

Snapshot:

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-1) is 30 and she’s 8-1 in the UFC. The Pole was considered the best female fighter in the world before being stopped in upset fashion by Namajunas at UFC 217. Though she looked bad in that fight, otherwise she’s looked terrific in the UFC with her elite striking skills, solid takedown defense, and top-notch cardio. I don’t think we will see Joanna get caught like she did in the first matchup with Rose. She’s too talented not to outstrike Rose, so long as JJ can stuff Thug’s takedown attempts, and continue to circle around the cage on the outside. If she can do that, then she’ll have her way with Rose, and should take an impressive decision win and regain her title!

Rose Namajunas (7-3) is 25 and she’s 5-2 in the UFC. The BJJ ace has always been considered a top prospect but really shocked the world when she beat Jedrzejczyk to win the title. But with her excellent striking skills that have evolved over the past 3 years as she’s fought tougher and tougher competition. If Rose can get this to the ground, then she has a great shot at keeping that gold strap around her waist!

With the incredibly dwindling card, we  are being forced to consider this one when putting our lineups together. I’ll have ownership of both, but I’ll be leaning more heavily in the JJ camp. I think her striking game is too good not to be on top.

PICK: JJ, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A - Too close to call

GPP: JJ (7.5/10): Don’t love it, but hey, we don’t have much to pick from.
 

Snapshot:

What a few days this has been! Conor McGregor single-handedly ruined a card that I guess was plagued from the beginning. Little did we know, but Tony Ferguson pulling out with a torn ligament in his knee (tripped walking in a TV studio, yes, tripped walking) a week before the fight was the least strange thing that would happen during fight week. McGregor’s antics of tossing a dolly through the windshield of a bus carrying UFC fighters directly led to 3 fights not taking place this weekend. Embarrassing and classless are the first few words that come to mind.

Al Iaquinta now gets the unreal opportunity of getting his ass mutilated by Khabib. At least he didn’t have to think about it for months ahead of time. I’ve already gone through my analysis of Felder vs. Iaquinta, so what makes you think Khabib won’t tear him limb from limb. Khabib is a play in all formats - go get him!

PICK: Khabib, Destruction, Round 2

Cash Game: Khabib (10/10)

GPP: Khabib (10/10)

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

GPP 1