MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 222 Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya

UFC 222 returns home to Las Vegas as Cyborg defends her belt against a UFC newcomer in Invicta veteran Yana Kunitskaya in a 5 round bout. The odds are insane in this one, as the betting masses currently have bet Cyborg to a -1,400 favorite, but the line was as high as -1,600 at one point! This one should be pretty cut and dried, by this is MMA, and anything can happen (see Rousey, Rhonda vs. Holm, Holly). The co-main event of the night features Frankie “The Answer” Edgar taking on Brian “T-City” Ortega to determine who will be the next in line to take on Max Holloway for his belt once he is healthy! A big risk for Edgar, as he could have just sat around waiting for Holloway to heal up and then he would have gotten his shot at the belt, but he was a man of the people and wanted to stay active (oh, and probably wanted the half million or so dollars that he’ll make to, but I’m sure that was an afterthought). Ortega is taking the fight on short notice and helping saving this card, because without that fight this is a pretty weak card for a PPV - top to bottom. The Ortega/Edgar fight will be an awesome one to watch as a fan, and don’t overlook the Andre Soukhamthath vs. Sean O’Malley fight that pops off right before the Edgar/Oretga fight! This fight will also be an interesting one to watch, as these two hyped prospects look to stake their claim in the bantamweight division.

This is a DraftKings card that has plenty of options for you to construct your lineups for both Cash and GPP, and these are the fun cards to handicap and create lineups for! With that being said, lets jump into it and see what we can put in the bank account at the end of this event! As always, you can follow me on Twitter to read my fight by fight commentary, analysis of how the fights are playing out and how they affect our FantasyAlarm.com Nation optimals that can be found at the bottom of this article! You know the rule, don’t just plug and play my optimal lineups at the bottom of this preview article, as you’ll be sharing the pot  with quite a few other people (and we don’t mean “sharing the pot” like we all would have done during our college days)! Use my fight by fight analysis and ranking system to put together your own creative lineups. Be creative - don’t be a follower :)
 

Undercard

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night pits undefeated Jordan Johnson (8-0) vs. 8-1 Adam Millstead. Johnson is 29 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The American is a well-rounded fighter who has a nice attack featuring takedowns and solid boxing. Johnson’s wrestling is his strongest attribute, and he should look to use this to his advantage in his fight against a fragile Millstead. He hasn’t gotten any finishes yet in the Octagon but prior to the UFC Johnson had quite a few submissions so they’re coming eventually. Either way Johnson is someone that you should be targeting in all formats.

Milstead (8-1, 1 NC) is 30 and he’s 1-0, 1 NC in the UFC. The American had won eight-straight fights by knockout, including a KO of Chris de la Rocha in his UFC debut, but in his last fight was brutally finished by Curtis Blaydes. He tore his knee apart like a cheap piece of string cheese in the fight and was lucky to escape with a No Contest when Blaydes tested positive for marijuana. Milstead is a very big, strong fighter and definitely has finishing ability but the loss to Blaydes is one of those fights where you wonder how it will affect a fighter’s career going forward. I’ve been nothing but impressed with Johnson so far in the UFC and I have no idea what Milstead will look like at 205.

From a DFS perspective I do like this fight as one to target. Johnson has a solid style for DFS, especially when you consider Millstead’s most recent loss to Curtis Blaydes where he was taken down 8 times in that fight before being brutally finished. Johnson should look to replicate this performance and expose the weakness that has been made evident. Millstead’s knees are not great either, and this doesn’t typically bode well for the Pennsylvanian. Johnson will probably be highly owned due to this quality DFS matchup. He’s pricy at $9,100, but he’s got a great ceiling for our GPP lineups, and I don’t think he has much of a chance at losing this one, so I’ll be rostering him in my Cash LU’s as well.

PICK: Johnson, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:   Johnson (8.5/10)

GPP: Johnson (8/10): His high price and high ownership limits his GPP appeal to some degree, but still a nice DFS fighter Saturday night.
 

Snapshot:

Fight #2 has $8,500 Cody Stamann (16-1) taking on $7,700 Bryan Caraway in this 135 lb bout.

Stamann is 28 and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The American is on a nine-fight win streak and has looked terrific so far in the UFC. He has a very well-rounded game and good cardio and he looks like he could become a future contender at 135lbs.

Caraway (21-7) is 33 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. The American has long been a top-15 bantamweight in the UFC and is coming off of back-to-back wins over Aljamain Sterling and Eddie Wineland. He’s a talented grappler and durable fighter and overall has been underrated in his UFC career. But has not fought in nearly two years which is a concern heading into this fight. Regardless of the layoff, I could see Caraway pulling off an upset here and he’s the first LIVE DOG on the card!

From a DFS perspective I think that Stamman will be pretty highly owned, as he is a high volume, active striker that will most likely have a pretty solid advantage on the feet. If Caraway can’t find a way to wrap up Stamman and get this fight to the ground, then it could be a long night for him, but Caraway has a lot of experience and he’s proven to be a game fighter when his backs against the wall and he’s being doubted. This is a very similar position that he’ll be presented with come Saturday night. I’ll be invested in Caraway as one of my Live Dogs that we’ll need to hit with in our rosters, regardless of the format. He’s not a great Cash play because I think he’s got a pretty low ceiling if he can’t get this one to the ground. Stamman is a solid Cash play, and will be highly owned in GPP’s, so roster with care.

PICK: Caraway, Sub, 2nd → LIVE DOG

Cash Game:   Stamman (7.5/10)

GPP: Caraway (8/10): His cheap salary, possibility for getting a fight-ending submission, and low ownership increase his ranking here.

Stamman (7/10): Could be a high scorer if Caraway can’t get the fight to the ground.
 

Snapshot:

Ottow (15-5) is 31 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American is a technically sound fighter who incorporates a well-rounded wrestling and striking game. However his lack of stopping power has led to three decisions for him, and in his last fight he showed durability concerns in a KO loss to Li Jingliang. Ottow’s chin is a big concern for me, and with that being said, I won’t be touching him in any format. Hopefully this one isn’t an “Ottow Pyle-up”! Haha - get it? Not auto pile-up, but an “Ottow Pyle-up”! Oh man….what a line!

Talk about a shitty chin….well, let me introduce me to Mike Pyle (27-13-1). Pyle is 42 and he’s 10-8 in the UFC. Pyle is one of the oldest fighters on the UFC roster and he’s lost four of his last five fights including brutal knockout losses his last two times out. He still has the potential for a knockout as he has excellent muay Thai, and we saw his vicious knees and elbows in his fight against Sean Spencer, but his chin cannot survive any trauma anymore. Pyle has already announced he’s retiring after this fight win or lose.

I may roster Pyle as a punt play in a few of my LU’s, as there is a potential for Pyle to clip Ottow and test his highly questionable chin and pain tolerance. If that happens, then you just bought yourself a 85+ point WIN with a $7,300 fighter who has a glass jaw! Pyle allows for a lot of roster creativity if you mix him in with say Caraway, but both are pretty big risks. I won’t call Pyle a Live Dog, but I would feel comfortable calling him a solid Punt play in your GPP LU’s, especially with Ottow’s recent durability concerns.

PICK: Ottow, KO, 1st

Cash Game:   Ottow (8/10): I like his chance of winning, but he’s got a low ceiling with his durability concerns.

GPP: Pyle (7/10): Punt play alert!

Ottow (7/10): I think he’ll be highly owned, and with his own chin issues, I don’t feel comfortable with Ottow mingling in the locker room.

Snapshot:

Lombard (34-8-1, 2 NC) is 40 and he’s 3-6, 1 NC in the UFC. The Cuban was once one of the most feared middleweights on the planet but he has been a huge disappointment overall in the UFC. He’s lost four-straight fights and has been knocked out in three of them, including a surprising KO loss to Anthony Smith in his last fight. Lombard is a powerful middleweight and still has power in his hands and explosiveness in his takedowns, but he only has about five minutes of cardio and gets wrecked once the fight passes the first round. At 40, he looks like he’s pretty much done, and I’ll be on playing him in a few longshot GPP LU’s. He may be able to catch DOlloway and end the fight within the first 3:00 minutes, but if Dolloway is able to avoid Lombard early on, then he should be able to win the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Dollaway (16-8) is 34 and he’s 10-8 in the UFC. Dollaway is still a solid wrestler and grinder and has improved his striking over the years. He doesn’t have a great chin but he has decent cardio and is still a tough out for most at 185. He could easily win this fight, and with a $7,800 price tag, I’d definitely consider him a LIVE DOG - the 2nd of the night!

Lombard hasn’t looked good in a long time and I’m pretty sure he has nothing left in the tank, but man does he carry a crazy pace the first round! Dolloway could easily succumb to Lombards power and pressure before the end of the 1st round, but if he can find a way to survive and just get to the 2nd round, then he has a very good chance at being a solid dog that puts up a W in your GPP LU’s. I’ll have exposure to both, but I do like Dolloway as a LIVE DOG here - baking on the fact that Lombard is shot and over the hill.

PICK: Dolloway, 3rd, Sub → LIVE DOG

Cash Game: Dolloway (7/10)

GPP: Dolloway (8/10): Survive early and it’s his to win!

Lombard (7.5/10): He needs to make quick work of him, or it won’t be a fun 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Snapshot:

John Dodson (19-9) is 33 and he’s 8-4 in the UFC. The 33-year-old American is one of the best bantamweights on the roster and prior to his run at 135 was one of the best flyweights on the roster. He packs a huge punch for a little guy and also has terrific takedown defense and athleticism. His flaws are that he tends to fade the later the fight goes and he’s also one-dimensional on the feet with his boxing-based attack. Still, Dodson’s a great fighter and a tough out for anyone in the division.

Pedro Munhoz (15-2, 1 NC) is 31 and he’s 5-2, 1 NC in the UFC. The 31-year-old Brazilian is currently riding a four-fight win streak including a submission win over a very tough Rob Font in his last fight. Munhoz has a legit ground game, but Dodson also has a very good takedown defense. It will be difficult to get Dodson to the mat, and with Dodson’s speed it will be a long night for Munhoz following Dodson around the cage.

I will be keeping my distance from this fight when it comes to DraftKings, as a combination of their styles could make for an unappealing striking battle that goes to a decision. Takedowns will not be part of this fight, as Dodson will be able to keep this one on the feet, striking at his pace. Not a high scoring affair. Save your precious salary dollars for another fake fighter to put on your fake team.

PICK: Dodson, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:   N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:

Beneil Dariush (14-3-1) is 28 and he’s 8-3-1 in the UFC. The Iranian is a top-15 lightweight in the UFC and still has the potential to make a top-10 run. He’s a very talented grappler and on the feet has underrated punching power. Dariush is a well-rounded fighter and after going 0-1-1 in his last three fights he badly needs a win, and he has a good opportunity to do it here against a short-notice opponent. Dariush comes in as a big -391 betting favorite with a $9,200 DK salary. He is by far a superior fighter to Hernandez, and I’d expect him to end this one within the first two rounds by submission.

Hernandez (8-1) is 25 and he’s making his UFC debut. The American is on a six-fight win streak including a win in LFA in his last outing. He has shown really strong finishing ability on the regional circuit but he only fights once a year and I think he needs to fight more often. He has the foundation to build upon, but he’s in an impossible position in this one, taking on a legit 155 pounder in 11 fight UFC vet, Dariush, on short notice. Not a great recipe for success. I may have one LU with Hernandez in at, but for the most part, I’ll be avoiding this $7,000 fighter come Saturday.

Dariush will be highly owned, and I’d suspect that he’ll rack up a 100+ point win against his short notice opponent. Dariush will be able to pay off his $9,200 price tag with the performance that he puts on Saturday night, but there are so many options in this price range that will produce similar results, and who have a slight higher ceiling. By my numbers, I have Dariush ranked as the 3rd best DraftKings option on the card, and I think this is pretty accurate, but we’ll need to pay up to roster him. I’ll definitely have exposure to Dariush in all formats, but I will also temper my excitement for him knowing how popular he will be on Saturday night. I like him a lot in my Cash LU, and am lukewarm for him in my GPP’s.

PICK: Dariush, Sub, 1st

Cash Game:   Dariush (9/10): Guaranteed win, high floor, high ceiling. I like it for Cash.

GPP: Dariush (8/10): I like him in GPP’s as well, but his ownership level makes me a little concerned, but I’ll own him in my 50/50’s, Double Ups, and Single Entry GPP’s.

Snapshot:

The first women’s fight of the night pits grappling ace, Mackenzie Dern, versus Ashley Yoder in this 115 pound fistacuffs. Dern (5-0) is 24 and she’s making her UFC debut. The American is an incredible grappler and enters the UFC with a ton of hype. She grew up in her dad’s gym and was able to get her BJJ Black Belt at the age of 19, which is super young to achieve that accomplishment! She’s looked incredible since making her MMA debut in 2016 and is one of the top MMA prospects on the planet right now regardless of gender. She obviously still has a lot of work to do in regards to her striking, but once she gets her opponents down the fight is over! Period. Her striking is pretty raw, and she’ll run into some fighters that will be able to control the fight on the feet, stuff her takedown attempts and either KO her or outpoint her on the feet. Yoder is not this fighter, so Dern has quite a bit of value in this fight.

Yoder (5-3) is 30 and she’s 0-2 in the UFC. The American earned a number of submission wins on the regional circuit and in Invicta FC but has not looked good so far in the UFC, losing both her fights in the Octagon by decision. She is a durable fighter but if she cannot implement her submissions she is likely going to lose her fights, and on paper this is a brutal matchup for her. This is not the fight where I’d expect Yoder to be able to implement her grappling game, as Dern is just a much better grappler than she is. Her striking is not advanced enough to threaten Dern on the feet either, so this is not going to end well for Yoder.

This is a showcase fight for Dern, but it should also represent a decent step up in competition for her so it makes sense. I fully expect Dern to win her UFC debut, and she’ll likely do so by stoppage. From a DFS perspective I like Dern in all formats, as she’ll eventually get this fight to the ground and get some solid grappling points with her advances. Hopefully Yoder has enough fight in her to keep the fight going for 3:00+ minutes on the ground, and allow Dern to rack up some points for our rosters, but that’s a big “IF”. That’s the crazy thing about DFS - you don’t want your fighter to go out and dominate too quickly, as it limits the number of DK points that they’ll earn. The perfect scenario is having your fighter kick the shit out of their opponent on the feet and the ground, and then get a knockdown and TKO finish at 4:59 into the 1st round. I don’t think Dern gets the TKO, but she will lock up a sub in the 1st round, I just hope Yoder can put up a fight to allow Dern to get some serious points for us.

PICK: Dern, Sub, 1st

Cash Game:   Dern (9.5/10): Love her in this spot for our Cash LU!

GPP: Dern (9/10): A lot depends on how much fight Yoder has in her, but I suspect a 1st round stoppage her from Dern!
 

Main Card

Snapshot:

Vieira (9-0) is 26 and she’s 3-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian has shown tremendous improvement every fight since joining the UFC and in her last outing picked up a huge submission win over Sara McMann. She has the potential to be a title contender in the women’s 135 lbs division and a win over Zingano would shoot her into the top-five. A lot of folks are hyping the hell out of Vieira, and this concerns me. I am not as high on Vieira as a lot of others are. She doesn’t hasn’t shown the cage awareness and Fight IQ that I like to see within my rosterable fighters. This line continues to swing in Vieira’s favor as well, as her $8,300 salary should be much less than the current -185 betting line! She actually has an incredible -5 Rank Value (ranked 6th in betting line, and 11th in DK!), and this isn’t something that we can just ignore, but I do think this line is off a bit, and this is why I’ll be putting a 2 unit bet on Cat Zingano. Zingano should be closer to +125 and not +160, so there’s definitely some betting value in Zingano here.

Zingano (9-2) is 35 and she’s 2-2 in the UFC. The American was undefeated until running into Ronda Rousey a few years ago and losing by submission. She has dealt with numerous injuries and personal issues and has barely fought since, with a decision loss to Julianna Pena being her only fight in the last three years. But when she is fully healthy she has the potential to be a real title contender and we’ve seen flashes of greatness with her wins over Amanda Nunes and Miesha Tate. I am concerned with what Zingano we will see in the cage. Do we get the monster that we’ve seen before, or do we get an underwhelming has-been who’s not mentally focused on fighting anymore? This is the big question, and tempers my excitement for her to some degree.

Vieira has looked pretty good so far in the UFC, but she is getting too much hype right now, and this has artificially pushed her betting line up to a point that I have to put some money down on Zingano. You know I love Rank Value, and Vieira’s -5 Rank Value is one of the best I’ve ever seen, but I think this is a factor of the line being pushed up beyond where it should be, so I’m taking this Rank Value with a grain of salt. I’ll have Vieira rostered in one of my Cash LU’s, and I’ll have some exposure to Zingano in some larger GPP tourneys, but I will be careful with these two fighters, and make sure I’m not over-exposed to either of them.

PICK: Zingano, Decision, Unanimous → LIVE DOG

Cash Game:   Vieira (7/10): I’ll have some exposure to her in my Cash LU’s due to her Rank Value, but I’ll be cautious.

GPP: Zingano (7.5/10): I don’t love Zingano’s upside, but I think she’ll be low owned, and should be considered a LIVE DOG!

Snapshot:

Here we go (in the voice of former UFC commentator Mike Goldberg)! The big boys are stepping into the cage to put on a brawl for the fans (hopefully).

Struve (28-9) is 30 and he’s 12-7 in the UFC. The Dutchman is one of the tallest fighters in MMA history and has an incredibly-long reach but he’s never been able to put it all together and become a contender. Though he’s a well-rounded fighter with knockout power on the feet and submission ability on the ground, he has a really poor chin and can’t take much punishment before folding up. Struve’s durability has been in question for years now, and knowing what we do about Arlovski’s striking abilities, Struve’s poor chin could be exposed pretty early in this one.

Arlovski (26-15, 1 NC) is 39 and he’s 15-9 in the UFC. The Belarusian is a legend of the heavyweight division but at his advanced age is over the hill. He did pick up a huge win in his last fight over Junior Albini but prior to that had lost five-straight fights. Like Struve, he can’t take punishment to his chin, and he also has poor cardio. But he does have knockout power and can surprise at times. Arlovski will need to get inside of Struve’s 7 inch reach advantage, and not let the Dutchmen strike from the outside. If Arlovski sits back on his heels, and doesn’t get inside Struve’s advantageous reach, then I foresee this one ending pretty quickly, as Arlovksi has to avoid getting hit in the head, as his chin is next to nothing at this point in his career, and giving Struve the time and space to use his reach to his advantage will ultimately lead to Arlovksi laying face down in the middle of the Octagon with his 6th loss in 7 fights. Arlovski will have to be unpredictable on when he pressures Struve and makes his move to get inside the pocket. If Arlovski becomes predictable on when he will pressure Struve, then the 6’11” Dutch striker will be able to use his striking to his advantage as Andre moves into range, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a basic jab or cross is landed on Arlovski’s chin, and putting him out.

This is a really difficult fight to predict, as both guys have similar glaring flaws. Both fighters have a lengthy past in the UFC’s most shallow division (probably the reason that they’ve been able to hang around so long), and with Struve having 37 professional MMA fights (19 in the UFC) and Arlovski holding 41 pro MMA fights under his belt (24 in the UFC), you know that both of these guys are worn down with very few fights left in them. Their chins have been tested for years, and it has caught up with both of them. With that being said, and striking being a variable that is difficult to predict, this fight becomes a really tough one to accurately predict who will win. I wouldn’t even be surprised if this fight goes to a decision! Both guys know their achilles heal (their poor durability), and if they both use their Fight IQ to their advantage, then they should be ultra cautious when striking with the other. This could lead to an overly cautious fight, and a gross, low-scoring decision, and that’s exactly what we would hope for if we don’t any shares of these two.

These guys won’t come close to sniffing my Cash LU’s, but I do see some value in Arlovski’s salary at $7,400. I truly think this fight should be closer to a pick ‘em than where the lines currently stand at (-175 Struve, +155 Arlovski), and with that being said, I think the DK salaries should be close to the mean of $8,200, so there is definitely some value in Arlovski at $7,400. All we need is one punch to land flush on Struve’s chin, and it’s the end of the fight. I’d consider Arlovski a solid PUNT play, and a small LIVE DOG! Regardless of who you feel will win this one, it’s a highly risky pick both ways, and one that I would not normally consider when looking for fighters to target, but with the value that I see in Arlovski’s DK salary, I think there is some space in a few GPP lineups.

PICK: Arlovski, TKO, 1st → small LIVE DOG & a solid PUNT play

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Arlovski (7.5/10): I don’t love this one, and it will take me all the energy in the world to be able to click the “Draft” button for Arlovski. We need to find some LIVE DOGS who we can roll the dice on, and I think Andre is the man to consider in this battle.  
 

Snapshot:

In the 3rd to last fight of the night we have a really great matchup and you have to give props to Sean Shelby for putting this one together. Andre Soukhamthath (12-5) is 29 and he’s 1-2 in the UFC. The American lost his first two fights in the Octagon by split decision but picked it up with a knockout win over Luke Sanders in his last outing. In both of his losses he had hurt both of his opponents and was close to ending the fight, but wasn’t able to close either of them out. He could easily be 3-0 in the UFC with some serious hype behind him and a big betting favorite coming into this fight, but the 2 losses put his betting line and DK salary in a different spot then I think his talents show. In his 3rd fight that could have seen him cut from the organization if he lost it, he looked great against Sanders who many thought would roll right through Souk, especially considering that Souk was a +215 underdog in the fight. Well, yours truly saw Souk’s line against Sanders and jumped on it, making for a very lucrative night! I’ve judged some of Souk’s fights back in the day, and I can assure you, this kid is athletic, smart, and is a very hard worker. He has the abilities to put together a run and sneak into the Top 15, and who knows, maybe even battle for a title some day. There’s still a long road ahead before he can get to that point, but his drive, desire, and abilities are all there for him to take advantage of. Lets see if he can execute now!

Sean O’Malley (9-0) is a 23 year old millenial with the confidence of someone who’s been knocking people out for 25 years. Problem is that he is only 23 years old, and I’m pretty sure that he hasn’t been KO’ing people since he was -2. I don’t love his cockiness, as I think he may be taking Souk lighter than he should, but we’ll only be able to tell if this is the case once the fight starts Saturday night. O’Malley is a creative, effective striker that is super fun to watch, and often catches many of his opponents by surprise. The MMA Lab product is a really solid striker and showed his striking technique off on Dana White’s Contender Series with a spinning back fist KO. He still has to show he has a complete game but there’s no denying this kid can strike.

O’Malley’s been in Vegas since last Tuesday, and this concerns me a little bit, as I hope that the 23 year old has been able to stay focused on the task at hand, and not chasing tail around Vegas in his spare time. I’m hoping he’s spent most of his time in his hotel room playing Fortnite, like the UFC reality show “Embedded” showed him doing a few days ago. Souk’s been training with ATT for a few years, but originated in the Northeast, cutting his teeth with one of the best regional promotions in the country in Classic Entertainment Sports (CES). He fought all but one of his regional fights under the CES banner, so he isn’t a stranger to being broadcast around the country and the pressure that comes with it.

This has the potential to be the show-stealer on the card and get honored as the fight of the night. Both of these guys can strike, and like a battle! They won’t sit back and be overly strategic, putting their defense first. No, these guys want to go in and throw down to not only win some bonus cash, but they are looking to entertain the fans, build a fanbase, and start making a serious run at the top of the division! O’Malley has a little more time than Souk, as he’s only 23 years old, while Souk is an old man at the ripe old age of 29! His peak is approaching quickly, but he’s ready to pounce, so don’t be surprised if he blows O’Malley out in this one.

From a DFS perspective this is an interesting fight. We got the ever-illusive mid-tier fighters ready to throw down for a reasonable price tag. I think you’ll see this line tighten up and end up settling close to a pick ‘em. I really like O’Malley’s striking style, as it is suited well for DK and it’s scoring format because he throws in volume, and lands at a high rate as well.  I see value in both of these fighters, but I have more faith in the older fighter who has fought at a very high level while on the regional scene, and has shown that he belongs in the UFC with his impressive TKO of Luke Sanders as a more than 2:1 underdog a few months back. Souk has moved to South Florida from New England to get the best coaching in the world, and this shows you his commitment to this sport, and to making a serious run at becoming the best possible MMA fighter that he can be.

Don’t underestimate O’Malley though, because he also comes from a very good camp in the MMA Lab in Arizona, and his striking is definitely UFC level, but I haven’t seen much of his clinch game or his ground game, and this is a little concerning. Regardless of the direction that you lean, I see value in either way that you want to go. This fight should be targeted in GPP’s, as it will be high-paced, aggressive, and has a very good chance of racking up a lot of points for the winner (and the loser as well). I’m leaning towards Souk due to his regional experience, and I believe his a more well-rounded fighter than O’Malley who seems to be purely a striker at this point.

PICK: Soukhamthath, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:   Don’t love either in Cash due to how tight this one will be. We like more of a guarantee than this one provides.

GPP: Souk (8/10): I like his chances here, and his well-rounded game will allow him to rack up some serious DK points for our GPP rosters, and I don’t think he’ll be too highly owned. O’Malley (7.5/10): This one is tight, so don’t feel bad about rostering both these guys in different GPP LU’s. I like Souk a little bit more

Snapshot:  

Speaking of awesome matchups - wow, I love this Edgar vs. Ortega fight! Huge amounts of props to both fighters here, as Edgar was originally scheduled to fight Max Holloway for the belt, but Max had to pull out due to injury. Edgar could have easily said bummer, not accepted a replacement, and then just waited for Holloway to heal, and finally take his title shot against the Hawaiian champ down the road. The Answer didn’t do this though, which is an awesome move for the fans! He wants to stay active, make some dough, and make sure he keeps the fans on his side, and he’ll be successful on all fronts come Saturday. The downside is that if Edgar loses to Ortega, then it causes him to have to win some more fights before given a shot for the title again. If he wins, then there is not issues for him, and he’ll be politely waiting for Holloway to heal up. Mad props to Edgar for this move and keeping the card intact!

Edgar (22-5-1) is 36 an he’s 16-5-1 in the UFC. The American is one of the greatest lighter-weight fighters in UFC history and even in his late 30s continues to operate at an elite level. His wrestling and boxing are both excellent and he has even shown some improved finishing ability the last few years. In his last fight he destroyed Yair Rodriguez with a TKO (doctor’s stoppage). Edgar’s ground and pound is the best in the division, and maybe the best pound for pound in the UFC as well, and this is exactly what allowed him to abuse the highly touted Rodriguez, and bust up his eye to the point that he looked somewhat like an alien. Edgar’s well-rounded fight game, high Fight IQ, and cardio for days makes him an awesome DK play in pretty much every fight he’s in!

Ortega (13-0, 1 NC) is 27 and he’s 5-0, 1 NC in the UFC. The American has looked amazing in the UFC with finishes in all of his fights including a ridiculous submission over Swanson in his last fight. Ortega is the future of the division and has championship potential but this fight against Edgar might be too much for him right now. Edgar is just so polished and well-rounded. I feel like Edgar will use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing and outbox Ortega for a decision win. Edgar’s decision wins often score very well in DK though, so don’t be concerned about the decision part of “decision win”. Ortega is supe dangerous on the ground, as he’s a BJJ black belt under the Gracie family lineage. His striking has improved though, so Edgar cannot overlook the power and accuracy that Ortega possesses in his striking arsenal. Edgar’s awesome boxing game will probably be too much for Ortega to handle, but he needs to avoid the big punches that Ortega will throw his way in this bout. Ortega isn’t a bad punt play here, as he definitely has the skills to beat Edgar, but I don’t think he is experienced or refined enough at this point in his career to overcome the incredibly well-rounded strengths that Edgar brings to each one of his fights. Edgar’s cardio is insanely awesome as well, and Ortega’s isn’t bad either, but on short notice Ortega’s gas tank may be limited more than it usually is, so you have to give Edgar the nod when it comes to cardio, and the way that this fight will go down will make each fighter’s gas tank BIGLY important in this battle. I’ll have some serious exposure to Edgar in all formats, and I’ll have a small exposure to Ortega in GPP’s. Ortega will be very highly owned due to the low price tag, ability to end a fight, and the fact that he’s never lost a fight. Many common fans will see that Ortega has never lost, and he’s currently the underdog, and many of the common fans will jump on Ortega without much research put behind it. Great fight all around though!

PICK: Edgar, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:   Edgar (8/10): I’d rank him higher, but this “W” isn’t a lock, as Ortega is a stud, and is improving each and every time he fights.

GPP: Edgar (8.5/10): One of the higher ceilings on the card, and we love that in GPP’s, right? But will Edgar want to shoot for takedowns knowing that Ortega is very dangerous on the card. If he abandons the TD’s due to wanting to avoid Ortega’s ground game, then it reduces Edgar’s GPP value, but his high Fight IQ, awesome cardio, great boxing, and incredible wrestling will continue to make him one of (if not) the BEST DFS oriented MMA games in the sport.

Ortega (8/10): He isn’t a slouch by any means, but he is facing an absolute monster on short notice! I still will have some exposure to him in GPP’s, but i’ll definitely be more heavily invested in Edgar.

Snapshot:

On to the main event of the evening! Cyborg is taking on a no-namer to the casual UFC fan. This is a good example of the issue with having Cyborg fighting within your promotion. People just don’t want to fight her, especially if it isn’t for a significant amount of money. Kunitskaya was the Invicta champ before being signed by the UFC for this fight. Is she a sacrificial lamb? Good chance, but hey, Cyborg needs someone to fight!

Cyborg (19-1, 1 NC) is 32 and she’s 4-0 in the UFC. The Brazilian is one of the most devastating finishers in the sport and has won her last nine fights via finish. She has devastating knockout power on the feet and a powerful grappling game to boot. She has looked incredible in the UFC with three knockouts and then a “Fight of the Night” decision win over Holly Holm. It’s just hard to picture her losing anytime soon.

Kunitskaya (10-3, 1 NC) is 28 and she’s making her UFC debut. She won her Invicta FC debut to shock Tonya Evinger and take the bantamweight belt but had it overturned on appeal and she was then tapped out by Evinger in the rematch. She won her last fight to get back in the win column and took this fight up a weight class on short notice to get her shot in the UFC. Credit to her for stepping up but I can’t see how this fight goes well for Kunitskaya. This is just a massive mismatch and the odds reflect that. Justino is the most dominant pound-for-pound female fighter on the planet and I don’t see her losing to anyone. I expect her to steamroll Kunitskaya in the fight, and win the match via first-round TKO.

From a DFS perspective I don’t like either side here. The salary for Cyborg is just too high to make it a smart play in any format. I could see a stack here with both Cyborg & Kunitskaya in your Cash LU, but even that is risky because if Cyborg doesn’t get that 110+ DK night, then she’s underperformed in my eyes. You can’t expect much from the HUGE underdog here, but why not use her as a big punt play in your Cash LU’s? I wouldn’t roster Cyborg in many GPP LU’s, as things need to work out perfectly for her in order to pay off her salary of $9,700, which is by far the biggest on the card, and maybe one of the biggest ever! I mean, just look at her betting odds (-1,600) - haha! Be smart here. If I were you I’d most likely avoid this one for the most part, and maybe have one GPP roster with Kunitskaya in it, and maybe 10-15% of my GPP LU’s will have Cyborg in them. If either one of them get a sniff of my Cash LU’s, then you’ll most likely see both of them in the LU, as stacking isn’t a bad option with this matchup.

PICK: Cyborg, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:   Possible Stack - sure, why not!

GPP: Cyborg (7.5/10): Just too much salary to put on one fighter. Things need to go perfectly for her to pay it off.

Kunitskaya (6.5/10): Simply a contrarian with one LU with her in it.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

*PIVOT → Ortega ($7,500)

Cash 2

GPP 1

GPP 2