MMA DFS Playbook: UFC on Fox 28: Stephens vs. Emmett

UFC on Fox 28: Stephens vs. Emmett

The UFC rolls into Orlando on Saturday night with an awesome main event fight between Jeremy Stephens and Josh Emmett! Many fans would look at this fight and laugh that it is headlining a card, but I really like this matchup from a style perspective! These guys are going to throw down like a back-alley brawl! It will be fun to watch. 

There are some interesting opportunities to build both Cash and GPP lineups here, and I feel really good about my optimals at the end of this article, but as usual, do not just plug and play my lineups, as you’ll end up splitting it with the rest of the subscribers within FA Nation. Use my fight by fight breakdowns to formulate your own lineups and differentiate yourself from the rest of the DFS MMA wannabes. Without further ado, lets get right into the fights! As always, please follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA, as I’ll be live Tweeting during the event. I’ll also be in the Fantasy Alarm forums, giving out some pointers here and there. If you have any questions about your lineups, or anything else that has to do with this event, don’t hesitate to send me an email or send me a DM through Twitter! I’m here to help, and there is nothing more than I love than helping the FA Nation win money over the other wannabe services out there! Let’s make it rain! 

Undercard 

Snapshot: 

Manny Bermudez is making is long awaited UFC debut, and if you aren’t from the northeast, you probably haven’t heard of Bermudez before. He is fought 10 times in just over two years, and most of his wins have come by submission in the first minute or two of the first round. He has fought only for Cage Titans and CES, both prominent regional promotions in New England, and he has absolutely torn through his competition in his 10 pro victories! 

Her’s taking on 5 fight UFC vet Albert Morales who has only found one victory in his 5 UFC fights, so he’ll need to figure it out against this top prospect in order to have a chance at sticking around the UFC ranks. Bermudez has an awesome submission game, but his striking hasn’t been tested yet, and many think that his wrestling may be his downfall, but with that being said, Morales doesn’t have much of a wrestling game, so Bermudez probably doesn’t have much to worry about when it comes to Morales stuff takedowns and keeping this one standing. 

I like Bermudez from a DFS perspective, especially in our Cash LU’s, as I think he’s pretty much a guarantee for a 100+ point first round victory here. I had the pleasure of seeing Bermudez fight recently, and the kid is a grappling stud! He’s quick as hell when transitioning on the ground, and I don’t see Morales being able to keep Bermudez from getting him to the ground, and eventually sinking in a choke to end the fight. I don’t mind having a few shares of Morales, because you never know, Bermudez hasn’t fought the toughest of competition, but from what I’ve seen, this kid should run through a very basic Morales. 

PICK: Bermudez, Sub, 1st

Cash Game: Bermudez (10/10) 

GPP: Bermudez (9/10); Morales (7/10)

Snapshot: 

Alex Perez (19-4) is 25 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. He comes in as a slight favorite at -135 with a DK price tag of $8,700. The Team Oyama product is currently riding a six-fight win streak and has a number of slick submission wins in that period. He is a very solid young flyweight prospect and continues to improve every time he steps in the cage. For such a young fighter he has a ton of experience and if he can work on his submission defense he has the potential to move up the flyweight ranks. He’s a dangerous fighter, and has the ability to really frustrate the more experienced Shelton if he is able to control where this fight takes place. 

Eric Shelton (11-4) is 27 and he’s 1-2 in the UFC. The American is a well-rounded fighter and after losing his first two UFC bouts by split decision came through with a nice bounceback win over Jenel Lausa in his last outing. The problem I have with Shelton is while he is a well-rounded fighter he doesn’t really excel in any area. 

This is a pretty close match on paper but I think Perez has more upside and I like his submission game. Shelton is very durable but I think Perez will be able to grind him out and take home a decision. With that being said, I don’t like this fight from a DFS perspective. Neither fights with an urgency to their game that would warrant a high scoring outing within our DraftKings rosters. Low volume striking is an attribute of both, and these cerebral fighters tend to fight in a style that just isn’t conducive to a high scoring DraftKings fight, so for this reason I’ll be passing on this fight in all formats. I don’t think either will be very highly owned, so if you like to play the contrarian style of DFS roster building, then feel free to roster either of these fighters. I’d take Perez with a gun to my head.  

PICK: Perez, Decision, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: 

An interesting fight here for our 3rd fight of the night. Rani Yahya (24-9, 1 NC) is 33 and he’s 9-3, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian has long been one of the most underrated bantamweights in the UFC despite having a fantastic record in the Octagon. He has one of the best ground games in the division and has the ability to pull off some incredible submissions. His striking is rudimentary and needs work, but for the most part he’s able to get his opponents to the ground and work them there. His price tag is one of the highest on the card at $9,300, and this should keep people away from him, as you can pay up a $100 more and get the ever-appealing Platinum Mike Perry. Yahya’s low ownership makes him an interesting consideration for our rosters, as we are always looking to differentiate ourselves when we are putting together our multi-entry GPP tourney rosters. I wouldn’t touch Yahya in Cash, as my level of confidence in him winning this one does not match up to his $9,300 salary in my opinion. 

Russell Doane (15-7) is 31 and he’s 3-4 in the UFC. The Hawaiian is an exciting fighter to watch and has the capability to pull off some nice finishes but his takedown defense is very poor and he has been submitted numerous times in his career. I feel like Yahya has a huge advantage on the ground and the line reflects that. I fully expect this fight to hit the mat, where I think Yahya will get into a dominant position and latch onto a submission for the victory. Rostering Doane allows you to do some pretty creative things with your roster, so I’ll definitely have some GPP shares of him for this reason. His striking is better, but I don’t think he has the wrestling chops to keep this fight on the feet. Even if he does keep it on the feet, it won’t be the type of fight that scores big in DraftKings. Regardless of this, we aren’t too picky with victory scoring when we are only paying $6,900 for a fighter on our roster. We’ll take whatever we can get, and for this reason, I’ll have some shares of Doane - throwing a hail mary in my GPP lineups! I’ll also have some shares of Yahya, as he definitely has the ability to rack up 100+ points, but with such a high price tag he makes it incredibly difficult to roster. 

PICK: Yahya, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Yahya (8/10); Doane (7.5/10)

Snapshot: 

I’m going to keep this one quick because you really shouldn’t be investing in any fight from a DFS perspective that Sam Alvey is involved in. Alvey has recently had a style that will put you to sleep, and he often lulls his opponent into a similar fighting style. I’ll either take a nap, a dump, or run to the store to grab some beer while this fight is going on, as I won’t be rostering either of these fighters in any format. A gross DFS fight, but if I had to pick one of these guys, it will be the debuting UFC fighter - Prachnio. If you are looking to really differentiate yourself, then roster Alvey and pray to whatever god that you pray to. Alvey has been slumping, and I don’t see anything changing here. 

PICK: Prachnio, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: 

Alan Jouban (15-6) is 36 and he’s 6-4 in the UFC with three finishes. The Californian is a very exciting fighter to watch as he has excellent striking technique and knockout power. However he is getting up there in age and his durability is a question mark as he’s been brutally finished in his last two fights. His chin is a big question mark, and at $9,100, it’s a hefty price to pay for a guy who might not be able to take many punches. He’s a high volumed striker, averaging over 5 SLpM, and we definitely love guys with this attribute in our DFS lineups! 

Ben Saunders (21-8-2) is 34 and he’s 8-5 in the UFC with six finishes. The American has an excellent striking attack and also a slick submission game on the ground. He’s a 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu student, but so is Jouban, so I don’t think he’ll surprise Jouban on the ground at all. But like Jouban he has durability issues and is coming off of a knockout loss too. 

This is a good fight on paper here between two guys with similar styles and similar flaws. Ultimately, it’s tough to trust either of these fighters in our DFS lineups, but it’s a fight that we should definitely target in our GPP lineups. Both these fighters have similar upsides, similar floors, similar flaws, and in my opinion, this line (and DK salary) should be much closer to a pick ‘em than the betting lines currently show. With that being said, I see some value in Saunders, and here’s why. Jouban’s chin has come into question as of late and he hasn’t been able to rally back from getting rocked like many fighters can. This scares me. Although Saunders hasn’t proven to be much more durable. In a vacuum I probably am taking Jouban, but considering the DK salaries at hand, I see value in Saunders, so I’ll have a larger exposure to him than Jouban in my GPP’s, but don’t be hesitant to roster either of these fighters in your LU’s. I’ll be avoiding for the most part in my Cash LU’s due to the unpredictability of both of their chins, but I may use Saunders as a punt play in a Cash LU or two. 

PICK: Saunders, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  N/A - Maybe a Saunders punt if I need to create some cap space. 

GPP: Saunders (8/10): Similar upsides, similar floors, and very similar MMA games all-around, so I’ll take the cheaper, less popular fighter in Saunders. Jouban (7.5/10): Combine his durability issues with his $9,100 price tag, and he becomes a very high-risk play in DFS.

Snapshot: 

Angela Hill (7-4) is 31 and she’s 2-4 in the UFC. She initially made her debut on the biggest stage in the sport with only a 1-0 record - a rarity in terms of lack of experience, but as the UFC builds out their women’s divisions they will have to take chances on fighters that they sign. Hill competed on TUF 20 and proved that she was worthy of competing at the highest level, but there was going to be A LOT of work that needed to be done before she could start racking up wins in the UFC. Her first stint with the organization saw her go 1-2 (not including TUF 20 “exhibition” matches), but her 2 loses came at the hands of two legit competitors in the women’s division - losing  a unanimous decision to the “Tiny Tornado”, Tecia Torres, and also the current belt holder, Rose Namajunas, via rear-naked choke. During these two fights you could tell that she was pretty raw and needed proper coaching to refine her MMA game. She has improved on this, but she still continues to rack up the decisions. 7 of her 11 pro MMA fights have gone to a decision, while 4 of her 7 victories have been determined by the judges, and 3 of her 4 UFC loses have been determined by the dorks in the ties sitting cageside. We don’t love decisions on our rosters, although the new DK scoring format doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be a worthless point tabulation. 

The American doesn’t have a great record in the UFC but to be fair to her she’s fought high-level competition the entire time she’s been in the UFC and when she fought opponents more on her level in Invicta FC she became a champion. Hill is a high-volume striker and she has some finishing ability. Her striking defense, however, is quite porous as is her takedown defense. She has a lot of flaws in her game, but she’s definitely a lot of fun to watch on the feet, so long as she lets go and takes some chances. Otherwise her pace slows, her finishing ability diminishes, and her DK scoring ceiling becomes much lower. These are not the type of qualities that we want on our roster, especially for large entry GPP’s.

Moroz (8-2) is 26 and she’s 3-2 in the UFC. The Ukrainian has some solid striking skills and some sneaky-good submissions on the ground but her takedown defense is also quite poor and she can be outstruck as well. Her last 4 fights have gone to a decision, and in many way she’s a similar fighter to Hill, which makes this an intriguing fight on paper. Out of her 5 UFC fights, 4 of them have gone to a decision - boasting a 2-2 UFC record when the judges have a say. Considering this, her goal should be similar to Hill’s to keep the fight standing. 

This is a solid matchup between two quick, crafty strikers that most likely will most likely go to a decision. These 2 are mid-tiered in terms of their price-range, which we like to target, but I’m not incredibly intrigued with the ceiling of either of these fighters if this fight goes to a decision. I won’t be targeting this fight for my GPP LU’s, but I may have a share or two of both fighters because if the striking volume stays high, then we should see the winner of this fight scoring 85+ points. Not a DK GPP home run, but a fight that could produce some solid results for our lineups if it plays our perfectly, but this is a BIG IF! Proceed with caution.   

PICK: Hill, Decision, Split

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Hill (7/10): A risky proposition, but there is some upside if it plays out perfectly. Moroz (6.5/10): Basically the same fighter as Hill, but a little slower and a little riskier. Tough one to call! 

Snapshot: 

Sara McMann (11-4) is 37 and she’s 5-4 in the UFC. The American is one of the most powerful wrestlers in the division and has a solid grappling game, or at least she came into the UFC with an uber-hyped ground game. I for one think that her ground game isn’t as good as people make it out to be. She has not adapted her wrestling game for MMA, and this has limited  her potential. Submissions and ground-and-pound are her path to victory. I would have hoped to have seen her striking to have improved after 9 fights competing at this level, but this really hasn’t come to fruition. She also has shown some cardio issues and she doesn’t have the greatest durability which has kept her from competing as an upper-echelon female fighter in the 135 pound division. 

Marion Reneau (8-3-1) is 40 and she’s 4-2-1 in the UFC. The American is a very solid striker and has finishing power that accompanies her unique ground game. But she can also be outstruck in her fights and she has been taken down by some pretty mediocre grapplers which is a big concern when taking on someone with McMann’s grappling credentials. I think the biggest difference in this fight is McMann’s takedowns. I can’t see Reneau stopping McMann’s aggressive takedowns, but I am worried about McMann getting caught in a submission, so I will proceed with caution when considering both of these fighters. The upside here is that we know that Reneau will get taken down by McMann, but can Reneau get back to her feet, or will she feel content sitting on her back and looking for a submission to lock up? It’s a tough question to answer, and if we did know the answer, then we’d have a much clearer picture of who we should roster in this one. 

I think McMann takes Reneau down at will and works her over for a dominant decision that is based around heavy GNP. If Reneau sits in guard and doesn’t work to get back to her feet, then it may be a pretty low scoring decision victory for McMann. If Reneau is able to pull something out of her ass, and get back to her feet at will, then McMann will be presented with takedown after takedown, and these are the fights that can really rack up the points. It is a huge IF, and I tend to lean towards McMann getting one takedown and working a heavy GNP for a middle of the road DK scoring night that the judges give to her. If McMann is assigned a ref that is known for standing fighters up who aren’t active when on the ground, then this could be the best recipe for McMann when it comes to DK scoring. Unfortunately we do not not who is assigned to ref this one. This may also be a factor that I start taking into consideration when handicapping fights in the future, especially with fighters who like to get TD’s and work a GNP game.   

PICK: McMann, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: McMann (8.5/10)

GPP: McMann (7/10): Great upside if Reneau can get back to her feet and McMann can rinse and repeat for 15 minutes (or if they are assigned a ref who doesn’t allow fighters to work the ground game and wants to see the fight on the feet). 

Main Card

Snapshot: 

Oh man. If you told me to handicap this fight 4 years ago, then I wouldn’t even think twice about this one, as Barao would walk through Kelleher without any hesitation. Fast forward to 2018 and we have seen a faded, weakened Renan Barao who is on his last legs. Renan Barao (34-5, 1 NC) is 30 and he’s 9-4 in the UFC. The Brazilian was the longtime bantamweight champ and was one of the best fighters in the world for years but has really struggled in recent years and is only 2-4 in his last six fights. He was once a deadly striker and submission artist but has looked like a shell of his former self in recent fights and his lack of durability is a huge concern. He’s also bounced between weight classes and going back to 135 should hurt his durability again. 

It’s sad to see the demise of one of the all-time greats, but I guess everyone gets old sooner or later. Is Barao mentally not there any more, or is his chin and cardio just not there? I don’t know if its an issue with desire to compete, or if its the physical limitations that have grown to be a big issue for Barao, or maybe it’s a combination of the two, but regardless, it is an extremely difficult fight to handicap, because you really don’t know what you are going to get with Barao in 2018! 

Brian Kelleher (18-8) is 31 and he’s 2-1 in the UFC. The American has won eight of his last nine fights and in his career the majority of his wins have come via stoppage. Kelleher has been a regional stud for much of his professional MMA career, and when he finally got the call to make the leap up to the UFC, he took full advantage of the opportunity placed in front of him. He was a +310 underdog to Iuri Alcantara back in June of 2017 at UFC 212, and he shocked the MMA world when he locked up a Guillotine only 1:48 into the very first round! This didn’t surprise me, as I’ve seen Kelleher fight many times in person, and the guy has skills! He has the heart of a warrior, and knowing his drive to compete, he wasn’t going to let this opportunity pass him by. 

On the flip side, he is a pretty inconsistent fighter, and this was on display when he lost his next time out under the UFC banner to Marlon Vera as a -225 favorite! Talk about 2 drastically different performances for Kelleher within a 1.5 month time span! He then bounced back 3 months later with a TKO victory over Damian Stasiak as a -105 pick ‘em at UFC FN 118: Cerrone vs. Till.

Including the weird submission loss to Marlon Vera back in July, Kelleher is 8-1 dating back to November of 2014. He’s been on a roll during this timeframe, and though his early career makes his overall record look poor, it’s clear he is a very good fighter and is well-rounded by today’s MMA standards. I think Barao is completely shot at this point and while I don’t think Kelleher will ever be the bantamweight champ, I do think he can win this fight, and I see him finishing Barao for the biggest win of his career. 

It’s a difficult fight to call, but at this point in both their careers you have two fighters heading in opposite directions. Kelleher is at the pinnacle of his career, and one could argue that he is peaking at the right time (right after he got the call from the UFC), while one of the all-time greats in Renan Barao is on the downside of his career with only a few fights left before he should hang it up. With that being said, I like Kelleher here as a live dog! He’s a $7,700 fighter, which makes him a great buy, and his finishing abilities and paths to victory are varied, which really makes for an attractive Live Dog! Yes, Barao still may have some drive left in him to win this one, but I think he’s shot; mentally and physically, so I’ll roll the dice in rostering Kelleher here. Don’t come crying to me if one of the all-time greats puts it together one more time and demolishes Kelleher, but based on both fighters’ recent results, I’m confident that Kelleher will use his Fight IQ to his advantage and TKO Barao in the 2nd after he touches up Barao before landing a big shot that ends the night! 

PICK: Kelleher, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Kelleher (8/10): Punt? Kinda….I guess. 

GPP: Kelleher (9/10): Low owned, low price, and high upside. Sure. Why not! 

Snapshot: 

Platinum Mike Perry (11-2) is 26 and he’s 3-2 in the UFC. The American is one of the biggest power punchers in the welterweight division and all of his career victories are via TKO including a brutal elbow KO over Jake Ellenberger. His two losses have come against solid fighters in Alan Jouban and Santiago Ponzinibbio where he was outstruck by more technical strikers and gassed out. Perry is still young and getting better and if he can work on his grappling could continue to climb the welterweight ladder. He is a stupidly fun fighter to watch, and don’t leave the room when he grabs the mic to talk after his victory. I would ear-muff the kids, but man, what a fun fighter to watch strike! He’s a raw street fighter who has found his way to a MMA gym and has found great success within the MMA cage! Heavy hands is an understatement! 

Griffin (13-4) is 32 and he’s 1-2 in the UFC. The American has a lot of power and showed that in his win over Erick Montano, but he has some flaws in his game. Against Colby Covington he showed a lack of takedown defense and against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his last fight he was outstruck. Griffin is a very robotic striker who doesn’t let his hands fly, and doesn’t use his athleticism when chaining his strikes together. Perry should be able to slip his basic combinations, land some heavy combinations of his own, and find himself with his hand raised in the middle of the Octagon! Don’t blink, as this could be a quick one! 

This should be an exciting fight but I believe Perry is the better striker and has the better chin. I think it’s going to be fun for as long as it lasts, but at some point I see Perry catching Griffin on the chin and finishing him. During his fight with Ponzinibbio, Perry showed all of us that he has the durability to stand in the pocket and deliver his patented haymakers, and if he can stand and trade with the likes of Santiago, then Griffin shouldn’t pose any threat to him whatsoever! He’s got a high price tag in $9,400, but you shouldn’t be concerned about him not paying off his high salary, as he’ll end this one within the first 10 minutes, and rack up 100+ points mostly through striking and knockdowns!  

PICK:Perry, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Perry (9.5/10)

GPP: Perry (9/10): He’ll be highly owned, and when you combine this with his high price tag, it reduces his ranking somewhat. He also doesn’t have the ground game which can often rack up points for us too. We’ll have to rely solely on his striking and knockdown and KO power to come through for us. 

Snapshot: 

OSP (22-10) is 34 and he’s 10-5 in the UFC with eight finishes. The former Tennessee Volunteer football player is currently riding an impressive three-fight win streak that includes two Von Flue Chokes and also a head kick KO over Corey Anderson in his last fight. OSP has a ton of experience and while he does have a few losses in the UFC he’s only been defeated by elite fighters (Jon Jones, Manuwa, Volkan Oezdemir). Even at 34, he continues to improve every time we see him fight, and he could fight for the title if he picks up a few more wins. The guy is definitely athletic, and has continued to impress us with his evolution as a MMA fighter, but his timing is limited knowing how old he is and the fact that he got a pretty late start in the sport. One could say that this is good as he hasn’t been worn down through the training and regional wars that he avoided, but keep in mind he played football at the highest level in this country, and that often means concussions, bad knees, and just an overall beating that your body as taken, so he hasn’t avoided shit. 

Latifi (13-5-1) is 34 and he’s 6-3 in the UFC with four finishes. The Swede is a physically strong light heavyweight who has tremendous takedowns and wrestling ability and also knockout power on the feet. However he has been knocked out a few times and going up against a striker with power like OSP could prove to be disastrous for him. Both guys are solid light heavyweights and are coming off of wins. He’s made some huge strides in his game and I think he’ll continue to show improvements in this fight, but OSP doesn’t have a MMA game that is well-suited for scoring highly in DraftKings. 

From a DFS perspective I really don’t see much here that I like. I’ve been lulled to sleep too many times by OSP, and I won’t let him do it to me again! He’s got a coach who is fine with watching his fighter slowly outpoint his foe, and not aggressively attacking his opponent. This is great for the wins and losses for the most part, but it is a bad recipe when you are trying to impress Mr. Dana “Fucking” White! In the game of MMA you do have to win your fights, but you also need to be an entertaining fighter that puts asses in the seats. If you are not a fighter who has a fanbase and gets a solid draw every time out, then your leash when you put together a few losses is much smaller than a fighter that losses like a Joe Lauzon. J-Lau goes out there every single time and puts on a show - win or lose, and this keeps the UFC knocking on his door, even if he’s lost 3 fights in a row. This style also plays well when it comes to scoring in our lineups. I’ll be avoiding this one for the most part, as I could easily finds myself lulled to sleep by OSP a few minutes into this fight, and that doesn’t bode well for DFS points. 

PICK: OSP, Boring Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: OSP (7/10)

GPP: N/A

Snapshot:  

Jessica Andrade (17-6) is 26 and she’s 8-4 in the UFC. The Brazilian has looked exceptional since moving down to 115 with a 4-1 record including a huge win over Claudia Gadelha in her last fight. Andrade is a physically strong fighter with a high-volume striking attack and also some deadly submissions on the ground. She’s a very exciting fighter and continues to improve, making her an intriguing title contender going forward. She has an AWESOME style for racking up DraftKings points! Her ceiling is the highest on the card, and her floor is probably the highest on the card as well! 

Torres (10-1) is 28 and she’s 6-1 in the UFC. The American is a very technical striker with a strong wrestling game and knows what it takes to win. She has been criticized for a lack of finishes and that’s a fair criticism but there’s no doubt she’s a talented fighter who has very few flaws in her game, and she’s a darkhorse title contender in the strawweight division. 

Many people think that this fight’s odds should be closer, but I think they are correct. I have loved Andrade since day one! Her style is aggressive, high-paced, and violent. She’s incredibly fun to watch, and she’s been able to win big fights as an underdog, not letting the public hype of other fighters effect her - mentally or physically. I will be rostering Andrade in all formats, as she is one of the few fighters on the card who has the ability to throw up 120+ DK points. On the flip side, I like Torres in Cash game LU’s as well, as I think she is tough as nails and has a pretty high floor because of that! I won’t be scared to stack these two in my Cash LU’s, but it does suck that this isn’t the main event where they’d have 5 rounds for both of them to rack up those points for my Cash LU’s. With that being said, I am not 100% convinced that I’ll be stacking these two in Cash. I will definitely have shares of Torres in my Cash LU’s, as I do think she has the highest floor of most of the fighters on the card, but I wouldn’t go so far as considering her a “Live Dog”, as I think Andrade will have her way with her and will score 120+ points in a decision victory! 

PICK: Andrade, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Andrade (10/10); Torres (9/10): High floor - exactly what we are looking for when it comes to our Cash LU’s! 

GPP: Andrade (10/10): A perfect style for DK!; Torres (7/10): Not really a Live Dog, but a high floor makes her appealing on this card with the options that we have. 

Snapshot: 

I really like this matchup! It should be entertaining as hell, as these guys will stand and bang without any hesitation. Watching tape on Emmett has really lead me to consider him as a Live Dog, and there really aren’t too many Live Dogs on the card this weekend.

Jeremy Stephens (27-14) is 31 and he’s 14-13 in the UFC. He is one of the best knockout artists in the featherweight division and is coming off of a devastating KO win over Doo Ho Choi. I’m a little concerned with him, as he just fought on January 14th, and he did take some damage in that one, so turning around and fighting that quickly again is concerning to me. 

He is a blast to watch fight, as he uses his punchers, kicks, elbows and knees in an all-out MMA attack to finish his opponents. He’s also an incredibly durable fighter and has solid takedown defense as well, but will his durability be put into to question due to his quick turnaround? This is the 3rd or 4th time that the new UFC brass has put a fighter right back in the cage after a quick turnaround. I’m not liking this trend, and hopefully it doesn’t come back to bite him in the ass. 

Most of Stephens’ losses have come in close decisions. He is not one to back down from anyone, regardless of weight class. He’ll push forward, looking for the heavy-handed KO, but he isn’t as wild and out of control as he used to be, and this has allowed him to elevate his game to a championship caliber level fighter.  

Josh Emmett (13-1) is 32 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC. The American is coming off of a massive KO win over Ricardo Lamas though he missed weight for that bout which is a concern going forward. There’s no doubt though that Emmett has big power and he also has solid takedown defense, making him an intriguing fighter at 145 going forward. I love Emmett’s style here, and it will make for an awesomely entertaining fight, regardless of who the victor is! Emmett’s cardio is great, and his heart may be his best attribute at this point in his career. He knows that at his age he basically has one shot at making a run at the belt, and he doesn’t take that opportunity lightly. 

Both guys are really well-rounded fighters with big power. I think it’s a really intriguing matchup and I’m curious to see how it goes down. While the win over Lamas was eye-opening, and it caught many folks by surprise, if you watch Emmett’s training regiment at Team Alpha Male, then it really shouldn’t have surprised you at all. I’ve been extremely impressed with Stephens in his last few fights. He’s the more diverse striker and he’s more experienced, but that doesn’t always mean you’ll win. I like the opportunity that Emmett presents to us here with his $7,600 price tag. I’ll have a heavy exposure to him due to his recent KO win over Lamas, as I believe that confidence is a huge factor in how well Emmett does in his fights. I have not seen his chin tested to the degree that Stephens will though, and that’s the only thing that concerns me about Emmett. If he can get through the 1st round and prove to us that he can eat a few heavy punches from Stephens, then I think you’ll see Emmett’s confidence grow and will allow him to aggressively march forward and walk Stephens down until he connects with the one that ends the fight! 

I’ll have exposure to both of these fighters, but I really do like Emmett here when you take everything into account (price, paths to victory, striking prowess, cardio, and confidence)! Everything seems to be aligning well for Emmett right now, and I’ll be the first to hop on his bandwagon! 

PICK: Emmett, TKO, 4th

Cash Game: Emmett (8/10): It’s a risky play knowing how heavy-handed and experienced Stephens is, but it’s worth the risk when you take everything into account with Emmett. 

GPP: Emmett (8/10): See above. One of the few Live Dogs here with some serious upside, but a low floor, which we really don’t care to much about in our GPP LU’s.; Stephens (7/10): His price tag and popularity concern me, but I’ll have some exposure to him. 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Cash 2 - Stack 

GPP 1

GPP 2