MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 126 - Cowboy vs. Medeiros

Another weekend, another UFC card. This time the traveling blood circus pulls into Austin, Texas for a date. It’s a free card on FS1, but there are some solid matchups to be seen. There aren’t many Live Dogs available to us on this card, so there may be a lot of overlap that occurs in big GPP’s. There are 2-3 Live Dogs that we need to build our lineups around so we can roster some of the bigger favorites that have big upside.

The main event of Cerrone vs. Medeiros will be a high scoring affair, and the big question is rather or not Donald Cerrone has been through so many wars that his chin and durability have faded. If this is the case, then Medeiros is a great play, but regardless, I like a stack of Cerrone and Medeiros in my Cash LU’s. I’ve given you 2 Cash LU’s and one GPP at the bottom of this preview, but feel free to mix and match other fighters that I like within my write-ups. The optimal lineups aren’t designed for you to plug and play, as you’ll be splitting the pot with many other people. Try to differentiate yourself to some degree, and get out of the situation where you’ll be splitting the pit with 40 other people. Without further ado, let’s get into the fight by fight previews!

Undercard

The first fight of the night pits the grinding Tim Williams, who hasn’t fought in a year, against a grappling ace in Oskar Piechota. Williams had made two attempts at cracking the UFC roster in the past, both through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF 17 & TUF 19), but both were not successes. Since then he’s gone on to string 5 wins in a row with victories over UFC vets Nah-Shon Burrell and Jay Silva. Piechota on the other hand has made his debut on the UFC stage when he faced Jonathan Wilson back in October, taking home a decision victory in his first attempt at stardom on the sport’s biggest stage.

Williams is a grinding fighter who prefers to get top position, and use his ground ‘N pound and grappling chops to win his fights. Piechota is a Polish grappling stud who has beaten BJJ stud Vinny Magalhaes in a grappling match, all-the-while his striking game has improved immensely as he has become a well-rounded fighter with a solid physique and mental sharpness to back it all up.

Williams really doesn’t have a clear cut path to victory here. Piechota is a better striker than he is, and Williams would typically want to get this fight to the ground, but he really doesn’t want to venture to the mat with Piechota, as it will most likely result in a pretty short night for the “South Jersey Strangler”. In Piechota’s Octagon debut he did go the distance for the first time in his career, but he had Wilson dead to rights at both the end of the 1st round and the end of the 2nd round. If either round was :30 seconds longer, than Piechota would have left the cage with his first UFC stoppage victory.

With all this considered, it completely makes sense while Piechota is a -299 betting favorite, and has a $9,100 price tag (the 3rd highest on the card). Piechota should end this one before the final bell, and I’d be surprised if this one makes it to the 3rd round. You’ll have to pony up to roster Piechota, but he most likely will pay off his price tag, as he has a well-versed MMA game that should showcase some takedowns, advances, and a stoppage victory. All are great for the DK scoring format, and will pay off nicely for us in our lineups.

I wouldn’t be scared to roster Piechota in any DFS format due to his versatility, physical presence, and ability to control the fight. We haven’t seen a lot of Piechota, but his game lends itself to a high scoring DFS outing. I’ll have a good amount of exposure to Piechota, as I think he’ll be lower owned than he should be due to the common fan not knowing much about him, the fact that he isn’t an American and we haven’t seen much of him in the minor leagues, and that biggest fact of all; Williams has nowhere to take this fight to have a chance at victory. My algorithm also has Piechota as the 3rd ranked DFS fighter on the card, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the top 2 in terms of DFS scoring on the card.

PICK: Piechota, Sub, 1st                                        

Cash Game: Piechota (9/10): High ceiling with a high floor - we likey a lot! is odds of victory are great, and he will most likely rack up some solid points for us. I h

GPP: Piechota (8.5/10): I love his game for DFS! Well-rounded, and the ability to outmatch Williams in every facet of the game. Still unsure about his ownership level, but I’m thinking he’ll get overlooked by many due to his Polish ancestry, and that he’s only had one fight in the UFC.                                         

In the 2nd fight of the evening, 12-4 Alex Morono takes on 28-16 Josh Burkman. Burkman made his UFC debut way back in November of 2005! For those of you counting at home, that’s more than 12 years of competition at the highest level of the sport. Yes, he did spend a short amount of time fighting on the regional circuit and for World Series of Fighting before making his way back to the UFC, but the guy has 17 fights in the UFC! That’s pretty incredible, and what’s even more incredible is the fact that he is 0-4 in his last 4 bouts in the UFC, and he’s 1-7 in his last 8 bouts with the organization! How the hell is he still in the UFC? It makes no sense, but whatever. Send him out there as another sacrificial lamb for Alex Morono.

Morono is 10 years the junior to Burkman (37 vs. 27), and he’s shown that he is capable of winning hard fought battles that require grit, tenacity, and a will to win. He overcame being a 3:1 underdog to Kyle Noke in his UFC debut, and then pulled off another upset over James Moontasri before starting the skid that he is currently on. He was knocked out cold by Niko Price, and was beaten by Keita Nakamura in Japan.

Morono is nothing to write home about, and his ceiling is pretty low in terms of overall potential in the UFC, but he’s competing against a guy who hasn’t done anything impressive in the UFC cage since 2013 when he submitted Jon Fitch. He really should have retired 5 years ago, as his chin is completely gone, and his striking and grappling are sub-par for the upper-echelon of MMA. Morono most likely wins a unanimous decision, but I don’t see it being a fight that is overly entertaining, or impactful from a DFS perspective.

The results spectrum for Morono in this fight is very wide, as it could be a ho-hum, boring decision that scores him 75 DK points, or he could show off his volume striking and Burkman’s depleted chin by laying him out on the canvas in the 1st round and score 110 points. It’s too tough to call which direction this Morono victory will head, and due to this reason I will have limited exposure to him in DFS.

I’ll have no exposure to Burkman. If I had more faith in Morono’s skill set and what he’ll bring to the cage, then I’d definitely have a bigger share of him throughout my GPP lineups, but he’s just too unpredictable to have much confidence in him delivering what we’d hope to be a 100+ point night. With that being said, I will have Morono in probably 20-30% of my GPP LU’s just in case he lands at a high volume and gets that late 1st round KO, because that will be a fighter in winning GPP lineups, and we wouldn’t want to miss out on that, would we?

This will be Burkman’s last fight in the UFC, and most likely, the last fight in his MMA career. If he was smart this would be it if he lost, and with that we do need to tip our caps and respect the fact that Burkman has had a pretty incredible run in professional MMA! Not many can say that they have fought at the highest levels of MMA for than 12 years, and with that in mind, congrats Mr. Burkman, but please retire before you permanently damage yourself by fighting over your head.

 PICK: Morono, Decision, Unanimous                              

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Morono (7/10): He’s got a high ceiling, but the odds of that result pulling through are highly questionable. I don’t love rostering guys that have a wide variance to the results that they can produce within the DK scoring system. I’d rather bank on some guys that are more predictable in what their outcome will be.

This is not a fight that I initially had much interest in, and deep down inside, I still don’t, but the more that you look at this cards “Live Dog” prospects, the more you need to keep Moras in your rostering thoughts. I don’t have faith in either of these fighters, especially in my DFS lineups, but like they say, when god gives you Lemons, make Lemon Morang pie with them…… or something like that. This fight should teach us all a lesson when it comes creating DK MMA lineups; don’t throw a fighter in the trash until you’ve had an opportunity to assess the entire card. What do I mean by this?

Check it out - at first glance, this fight looks like a dumpster fire that should be avoided in all formats. Once you’ve had a chance to evaluate the entire card and it’s ability to produce underdogs that have a chance at winning, then it is time to start to consider rostering the top 2-5 fighters on this “Live Dog” list, as these are the fighters that you really should be building your rosters around. This card is a perfect example, as there aren’t many Live Dogs that I think are worthy of rostering, and taking this into consideration, all of a sudden Sarah Moras becomes a fighter who may be worth rostering, as she does have an outside chance of beating Pudilova, especially if she can get the fight to the ground. So, at first glance this is a gross fight, but once you’ve had a chance to evaluate all of the Live Dogs on the card, and how limited they really are, then it’s time to consider Moras as someone who could save you salary cap space and possibly pull out a win.

A win is a win when it is an underdog getting that win for you. You don’t need them to score 120 points (although that would be really nice). You just need them to win. Moral of the story, don’t judge a card’s Live Dogs until you’ve had the chance to evaluate all of the Dogs and which one’s have a legit chance at victory. Some cards give you very few options when it comes to Live Dogs (like this one). Others are plentiful in their production of Dogs that can win…..and those are the fun cards that open up the possibilities when it comes to roster creation. For UFC Austin, we just need to take what the fight card gives us, and not get too greedy.

Pudilova is 1-1 in the UFC and has landed a very impressive 5.07 Strikes per minute, while the ground specialist that is Sarah Moras has only averaged 1.1 SLpM! If the fight stays standing, then Pudilova will score well and win, but if she tires and can no longer defend the takedown or prevent Moras from getting her to the ground, then Moras has a legit shot at victory via submission. That is her only path to victory, and we don’t love rostering fighters with only one path to victory, but like I said, this card necessitates us considering Moras than we’d necessarily like to. 

PICK: Pudilova, Decision, Unanimous                 

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Moras (7.5): The only reason that she is ranked so high is due to the lack of legit underdogs that can win on the card. She has a better chance at Dog victory than many other options on the card. Ugly, but necessary. 

This is Joby Sanchez’s 2nd stint with the UFC after winning two fights in front of Dana White in his Contender Series. Roberto is a solid grappler with legit submission skills. This is a really tough fight to call, and could go either way. Joby has fought tougher competition and has been on a solid streak since he last fought in the UFC, and I think this should ultimately be the determining factor in this one, but I don’t feel confident enough in this to roster either of these guys. I may have less than a 10% ownership level for Joby, but I wouldn’t invest heavily in either of these guys.

There are just too many unknowns in this one to invest heavily. With a gun to my head I’d pick Joby, but I don’t see enough value in either one of their salaries to take the leap of faith needed to roster either of these guys. Proceed with caution.

PICK: Joby, Submission, 3rd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

The 5th fight of the night is a welterweight battle between Brian Camozzi, who is 0-2 in the UFC, and Geoff Neal, who’s making his UFC debut. Camozzi is a slight underdog at +169 (I think he should be closer to +220) and owns a $7,300 DK salary, whereas Neal is a 2:1 favorite with an $8,900 DK salary. Camozzi is the brother of longtime UFC gatekeeper, Chris Camozzi, and like Chris, Brian is a jack of all trades, master of none. He doesn’t do anything great, and that typically is a cause for concern when you are fighting in the UFC. If you can’t be great in one aspect of MMA, then you really shouldn’t be fighting in the UFC, and in my opinion Brian Camozzi should not be fighting in the UFC.

Neal is a solid boxer with a stiff jab, solid lead hook, and likes to end his fights with his heavy left hand, and this is how this fight should end. Neal is the better striker, but is not a great defensive wrestler. What’s great for Neal is that Camozzi doesn’t have a wrestling game to expose Neal’s weakness. Camozzi is long, and may be able to outstrike Neal from range, but as soon as Neal gets inside, then Camozzi’s long limbs become a liability.

In DFS MMA there are a few things to take a long hard look at when analyzing a fighter and a matchup. I don’t like to give away my secrets, but here are a few things that you should take into consideration when handicapping a DFS MMA contest: 1) a fighter’s ability to end the fight (strikes or subs) (2) each fighter’s chin combined with the striking power of their opponent (3) each fighter’s cardio (4) the stylistic matchup between the two fighters - does one’s strength matchup well with the other’s weakness. Now these are just a few of the important things to consider when analyzing a MMA fight from a DFS perspective.

When you look at Camozzi vs. Neal you’ll notice that Neal is a strong striker and Camozzi’s chin is constantly in question. This is not a good recipe for Camozzi, and this is where the fight will be decided. Neal will win via TKO in the first or 2nd, but he will not rack up those ever elusive takedowns and advances on the ground that we always like to see, but I do think that Neal has the potential to be on the winning GPP lineup, so roster him if you don’t mind his $8,900 salary.

PICK: Neal, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Neal (9/10): I don’t think he has a chance at losing this one, and he’s got a pretty high ceiling as well as a relatively high floor. All good for a Cash LU.

GPP: Neal (9/10): For all the reasons one above

Gordon vs. Ferreira. Probably the best fight on the card, and a fight that is most likely to put someone’s jaw on the floor. The end results that could occur in this fight are numerous, and that’s what makes this one so interesting to analyze and to watch!

Gordon has a really cool story to tell, and he’s turned out to be a hell of a fighter to boot! A one time heroin addict, Gordon found his way to MMA and he credits it with saving his life. A pretty powerful story, especially one that can resonate with many people all over the US in our communities. A sickness that he overcame, and used his ability to beat addiction and transfer it to a demanding sport; MMA. I guarantee you that the struggles and effort that it took Gordon to beat the demons of addiction do not compare to the behemoth of an opponent that he found in beating opioids. When he is drug (no pun intended) into deep waters during an MMA fight he most likely looks at his current position as a walk in the park compared to overcoming an addiction the size of heroin. Gordon has used this experience to fuel his fire, and his has become a tremendously exciting fire and one that carries a pace and aggression that is tough to match in the UFC, the highest level of the sport of MMA.

Gordon carries a crazy pace, and his style sets up perfectly for DFS….I mean perfectly! He strikes with crazy volume (6.89 SLpM), has a legit wrestling game, delivers GNP in volume like I’ve never seen before, and has an awesome gas tank! He has become one of the highest scoring fighters that you can roster, and DraftKings has noticed. He has the highest salary on the card at $9,300, and he may be worth it.

Ferreira hasn’t fought in 2 years after getting nabbed by the big bad USADA. This came after the biggest win of his career when he beat Canadian stud, Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He is a BJJ black belt and is a grappling stud, but he isn’t too shabby on his feet. If he had been competing over the past 2 years, then I’d probably have him as a slight favorite in this one, but with ring rust being a real thing and cardio, preparedness not where it should be, and his body running without illegal chemicals will all play a big factor in this one. Gordon’s cardio and pace will be too much for the Brazilian to handle, and it will eventually weigh too heavily on him, forcing him to succumb to the relentless pressure that Gordon applies. He’ll either get a 2nd or 3rd round TKO once Ferreira’s cardio has disappeared, or he’ll win a dominant decision.

From a DFS perspective this all sounds great, and we should roster Gordon, right? Well, not so fast. The best part of Ferreira’s game is his submission game, so I’d suspect that Gordon will most likely avoid trying to get this one to the ground. If Gordon wanted to reduce the risks in this fight, and Ferreira is dangerous, he’d keep the fight on the feet or against the cage, but not on the mat. With that being said, Gordon’s value diminishes to some degree, as he won’t be accumulating the takedown, advance, and ground and pound points that he normally would. Let’s admit, striking is great in DFS but its the takedowns and grappling that get you those 120+ point nights. I still like Gordon, but it makes rostering his $9,300 salary much more difficult. It is tough to build lineups when you include Gordon’s high salary, but he definitely should get some attention, especially in Cash LU’s.

PICK: Gordon, Decision, Unanimous       

Cash Game: Gordon (9/10): Great odds, high floor, and fun to watch. What more could you ask for?

GPP: Gordon (8.5/10): He’s tough to roster, but if you can afford to do it, roster him. He won’t win without scoring 100 points.

Main Card

I’ll be quick here, as I don’t see where we should invest in either fighter in this one. Sage is a huge favorite and could very easily end this one in the first, which will pay off his salary, but I just can’t trust him. I’d rather have Gordon over Sage at this price range. I wouldn’t touch Gouti with a 10 foot pole in any format.

Sage is a risk, as he could finish Gouti in the first round and score 110 points, or I could see him going into the 2nd or 3rd round with a wrestle heavy approach. He’s training at Team Alpha Male now, so he should have a solid game plan, but his cardio is always been questionable, and that’s one thing that keeps me from jumping in head first and rostering Sage everywhere. Have some shares, but don’t get over-invested because if he does go into the 2nd or 3rd round then he could blow up your lineup. I do think the UFC is setting him up here to look very good - they need to build him up more - and this is usually a good thing. Roster him if you prefer his style over Gordon’s but I see similar upside in both of them with their respective matchups, but there is more risk in Sage.

PICK: Northcutt, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Northcutt (8/10): Perfect opponent for him to win big, but a big price tag too.

GPP: Northcutt (7/10): His risk is higher than Gordon’s, so I’ll most likely lean more towards Gordon than Northcutt.

Davis is making a quick turnaround after fighting on the UFC 220 card in Boston in mid-January. In Boston he lost a decision to Kyle Bochniak who happened to be an awful stylistic matchup for him. Bochniak would not engage with Davis and it totally killed his UFC debut. This fight lines up much better for Davis from a style perspective. Davis is taking this on a week’s notice, but with his recent bout in Boston you’d hope that he is still in fighting shape and could easily go 15 minutes.

Peterson is a 135er who is moving up to featherweight to fight Davis. He’ll give up some height and a 1 inch reach advantage, but the size may be a much bigger factor if and when they are against the cage and fighting for dominant position. Peterson’s striking defense is pretty poor and this will allow Davis to tee off, eventually winning a high volumed striking affair on the judge’s scorecards.

From a DFS perspective I really like Davis here. He’s got solid striking, is a 2:1 favorite, and has a much sturdier chin than what Peterson has displayed. For a reasonable price of $8,700, I think the upside that Davis delivers is worth considering in all formats, especially GPP’s. I won’t be touching Peterson, but I’ll have some shares of Davis in a good percentage of my GPP’s.

PICK: Davis, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Davis (8/10): Solid upside and a reasonable floor too.

GPP: Davis (8/10): I like his upside here, especially less than $9k!

Alves has been fighting forever and he really has changed or adapted his game at all. Still the same old Alves. Big, predictable puncher who likes to get inside on his opponents and use his punches and knees to wear down his opponents. He also has a great low kick to his opponent’s lead leg, and this could play nicely in this fight.

Millender is a kicker, and only a kicker. He’ll have a huge 8 inch reach advantage, but he really won’t use his boxing at all. He’ll pressure forward, keeping range, and kicking his foe over and over, looking to land the right headkick to end the fight in devastating fashion, but this is much easier said than done. Alves has only been stopped twice in his 33 fight pro MMA career, and I don’t expect Millender to be the guy to stop him.

Alves will block Millender’s kicks, get inside, and use his heavy handed boxing to tag Millender and eventually win an interesting fight to watch by decision. I don’t foresee Alves trying to get this one to the ground, so we won’t earn points from takedowns or advances, somewhat limiting what the ceiling is for Alves in this fight. He’ll land his shots, but he’ll need to be careful not to get caught with a high kick, so his pace will be measured and cautious. This will cause a lower volume of strikes than what you’d like to see out of one of your rostered fighters.

Alves is still worth rostering, as I don’t foresee him scoring less than 85 points in this one, even if it does go to a decision, which it should especially when you take into consideration the pretty high Inside the Distance props for each fighter. Millender most likely won’t land that fight-ending headkick, but the headkick is that wild card strike that can easily end a fight if it lands cleanly, so a lineup or two with Millender in it won’t hurt.

PICK: Alves, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Alves (7.5/10): High floor and reasonable price. Definitely consider him for your Cash LU’s.

GPP: Alves (7/10): Not one of the best GPP players on the card, but safe.            

          Millender (6.5/10): Hey, we need to go after at least a few dogs on this card, right? Why not throw a dart?

This lightweight matchup is a great one, and we truly be interesting to see how this fight unfolds as it progresses. Both of these guys are well-versed in every aspect of the fight game, and we could very easily see a round of high-level stand up and then the next round we could see both these guys on the ground transitioning from submission to submission. It really could take place anywhere, and this is what makes this fight so interesting to me.

Vick is a rangy 6’3” striker who will hold an 8 inch reach advantage over the Brazilian, and he will use this to his advantage, attempting to employ a strike from range game plan that should either KO Trinaldo or out point him over the course of 3 rounds. Trinaldo will look to get inside on Vick and strike inside where Vick’s range advantage is present, and if he can get beyond the strikers perimeter, then he may very easily find himself on the mat delivering some heavy GNP while Vick looks to lock up a submission from the bottom, which he is well versed in.

From a betting and DFS perspective this fight seems to be off a bit, or at least in my humble opinion. If you were to ask me to handicap this fight right now, I’d say that Vick should be a -180 favorite at best and not the -250 favorite that he is on Saturday morning. I also would price him at about $8,700 from a DK perspective as well. I see some value in Trinaldo here, and with so few Live Dogs to choose from on this card, I’ll definitely have some exposure to Trinaldo in this one. He has the striking ability and the ground chops to win this one using either facet of his game. I think that Vick will ultimately pull this one out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the 39 year old Brazilian pulled this one out either.

Find some room for Trinaldo, but don’t avoid Vick completely. Having to choose from few dogs who have a chance at victory, Trinaldo is one of the best options on the card, and as you know we need to find a salary saver or two somewhere, right?

PICK: Vick, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: I like both these guys in Cash. If you need to save some salary, feel free to go after Trinaldo.

GPP: Trinaldo (8.5/10): I like him as one of the few Live Dogs on the card. We need to find salary savings somewhere and this is one of our best bets. 

Snapshot:

The big boys step into the Octagon during the co-main event of the evening, as hometown boy, Derrick Lewis, is takes on slight favorite, Marcin Tybura. As you know these heavyweight fights can be a significant point generator for your lineups, as the fights can end at any point in time, usually via a vicious stoppage. The downside of these heavyweight fights is that is they don’t get the early stoppage, it can often turn into a fight that hits the ground and is pretty sluggish and unappealing to watch. I’m a little concerned that this is where this fight is headed.

Lewis has made statements that he wants to retire, and he then lost to Mark hunt in a pretty poor performance. I question whether Lewis’ heart is still in this game, and if it isn’t, that’s not the type of fighter that you want to roster. I also feel that Tybura has more paths to victory than Lewis, and it’s important to note that Tybura has only been stopped once in his 19 fight pro MMA career, and that was by doctor stoppage, so it will be tough for Lewis to end this one before the final bell.

I’ll have some exposure to both of these fighters, but I’ll be leaning towards Tybura more so than Lewis in this one. Both these guys are in the mid-range, and can help with your roster construction. I like Tybura more than Lewis, but these guys have similar value when it comes to DraftKings, so don’t be ashamed to roster Lewis.

PICK: Tybura, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: N/A - Too close to call with confidence

GPP: Both guys (7.5/10): You can’t go wrong with either fighter, but I’ll lean towards Tybura due to his durability and multiple paths to victory.

Snapshot:

One of the most exciting and successful fighters in the UFC for years, winning fights at both lightweight and welterweight, Donald Cerrone is a UFC icon that has a huge fan base and a fighting style that can excite anyone. He’s an incredibly well-rounded fighter with terrific striking and submission skills to go along with underrated wrestling and really good cardio. While moving up to 170 looked like a great move after he racked up four-straight wins, Cerrone has now hit a rough patch and has lost three-straight fights, including knockout losses to Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till. Cerrone has always had a good chin but it seems like his ability to take a punch is finally starting to go and that’s concerning for someone who is willing to get involved in slugfests.

The big question in this one is how much has Cerrone’s chin and durability faded over this 3 lose stretch? He was once the most durable fighter in the UFC, but he has been in some serious wars, and this would eventually catch up with him and it looks like it has. If Cerrone’s durability has faded like I think it has, then I think he has a very tough road to victory against a worthy opponent in Medeiros.

Medeiros (15-4,1 NC) is 30 and he’s 6-4, 1 NC in the UFC. The American was nothing more than an exciting gatekeeper at 155 but since moving up to 170 he’s looked like a contender with three-straight wins including an incredible finish over Alex Oliveira in his last fight. Medeiros has really good striking, really good submissions and he’s very durable. It looks like moving up to welterweight was the right move, and now it will be interesting to see how he performs in this big step up in competition against Cerrone. If you asked me a year ago this time, I would have picked Cerrone to win this fight, but he’s taken a bad turn in his career while things have been looking way up for Medeiros. Medeiros is the most refined fighter in the world and his striking footwork is pretty poor, but his momentum and proven durability is the big differentiator in this one.

I think Medeiros is the more durable fighter and in a bout I see being a slugfest, I think Medeiros takes Cerrone’s best shots and eventually finishes him with a TKO in this five-round main event. Cerrone is past his prime and Medeiros is approaching his. A durable chin is huge in this game, and this is what will carry him to victory.

From a DFS perspective you can roster either of these mid-range fighters. Medeiros will be more popular in rosters due to his $7,800 salary and Cerrone’s questionable durability, and with that in mind, it might not be a bad idea to roster Cerrone in GPP’s, or at least have a share or two of him. Ultimately Medeiros gets the better of Cerrone, but this will be a high scoring affair and is a very good fight to target in GPP’s. I also won’t be scared to stack this fight in Cash games either.

PICK: Medeiros, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Medeiros (7/10): Tough one to call, and we really want to have confidence in victory with our Cash LU fighters, so proceed with caution.

GPP: Medeiros (8/10): It’s a gamble, but I like his chin better than Cerrone’s, and it will be a high scoring fight.

          Cerrone (7/10): His low ownership is appealing, so have some shares of Cerrone too.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Cash 2

GPP 1

*Pivot - Sage Northcutt ($9,200)