MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 221 Romero vs. Rockhold

UFC 221 rolls into the Land Down Under with a PPV card that really is more like a Fight Night card, but on the brightside DraftKings has been continuously increasing the amount of money up for grabs for UFC events, and is a solid amount of cash up for grabs this weekend!

There aren’t many Live Dogs on this card, so there will most likely be a repeat of two cards ago where basically everyone had the same lineup, causing log jams all over GPP’s. There is a little more diversity on this card, and there are 3-4 fighters who have serious upside with perfect fighting styles that truly compliment the DK scoring format. These are the guys that you want to focus on when building your GPP lineups, so be sure to read carefully.

This is a long one, but a good one! I’ve included the Fighter’s Twitter handles, as you can often find some inside info by taking a look at their Twitter accounts in the weeks leading up to the event. I also embedded some charts and stats that help prove my point and strengthen my reasoning for certain selections.

As always, feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions about this card, my lineups, or anything else that has to do with DFS MMA! You can reach me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA, or you will also find me on the new FantasyAlarm.com chat function before and during the event! It’s super user friendly, and an easy way to ask questions before or during the event. I’ll be live Tweeting and also hanging out on the FantasyAlarm.com chat during the event Saturday night! Let’s make it rain… again!!!

Undercard

The first fight of the evening has New Zealander, Luke Jumeau (12-4), taking on Daichi Abe (6-0), who hails from Japan and has a solid Judo game. Jumeau is 1-1 in the UFC with both fights going to a decision, and if you look at his Inside the Distance prop of +505, it is one of the worst on the card, and these typically aren’t the guys that we are looking to roster.

Abe made his pro MMA debut back in 2016 in Pancrase, and won it’s welterweight title a little more than one year later. He ended up beating Korean tough guy, Hyun Gyu Lim in his UFC debut by decision, and he showed an impressive will to win after weathering a serious eye poke from Lim before eventually getting the nod from the judges once the final bell rang. Abe’s Judo is definitely his strength. Both fighter’s stand up skills are about equal, but where Abe has the advantage is in the clinch when he can execute his Judo game and get the fight to the ground. Once on the mat, Abe will have an advantage, especially if he has top position.

The DraftKings pricing is pretty much equal, as are the betting odds, but I feel like Abe has a stronger all-around MMA game, especially on the ground. Abe also presents some solid Rank Value at -3, as he ranks 11th on the fight card with his $8,200 DK salary, and 8th on the card with his -152 betting odds. This presents a solid -3 Rank Value that we are getting with Abe, and as astute DFS players, we are always looking for value that is presented in the DraftKings salary, and we have definitely found some value here in Abe.

I don’t have a robust amount of confidence in Abe, but I have a lean on him over Jumeau in this matchup. I could see it going to a decision that isn’t all to exciting for the fans, but with Abe’s solid Judo game we could see plenty of takedowns if Jumeau can continue to get back to his feet, which may be more difficult than we’d like to see. Keep in mind though, these guys do like to stand and bang on the feet, as they are always looking to impress the bosses and the fans. Both guys are counter punchers too, so it could make for a slower pace on the feet than we’d like to see when it comes to DK point accumulation.

I will have some exposure to Abe if I am looking to roster some mid-range fighters, but this is a close fight on the feet, and it most likely will unfold there versus on the mat. Yes, we have some value in Abe here, but this most likely will be a close decision that takes place mostly on the feet. Roster with caution.

 PICK: Abe, Decision, Split                                     

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Abe (7/10): Not extremely confident in Abe’s ability to win here, but we are getting some solid Rank Value at -3, and this me ranking him higher in GPP’s than he probably should be.

Quinonez (6-2) is 27 and he’s 3-1 in the UFC. The Mexican has a game that is significantly below average from a striking perspective, but he has been training sporadically with Eric del Fierro at Alliance MMA in San Diego, so you have to assume that his striking has improved to some degree. His striking style is usually described as “awkward”, and this isn’t always a bad thing when competing at the highest level of the sport (more on this a little further down). Quinonez has had 4 UFC fights, winning the last 3 (2 by decision) over Morales, Gomez, and most recently, Diego Rivas back in August. He was a slight underdog vs. Gomez and Morales, but ended up pulling out the victories, while he was a -230 favorite in his UFC debut against Alejandro Perez that he ended up dropping by decision.

Wrestling is definitely his strong suit, averaging 3.15 takedowns per 15:00 minutes of action inside the UFC cage, and that’s a solid number. When you combine this stat with Ishihara’s abysmal takedown defense of 16%, it gives you some insight as to how this fight may playout, or at least the way that Quinonez would like to see it unfold. Although Quinonez’s striking has been described as “awkward” and far from “UFC-caliber”, he has shown some impressive power in his hands over the course of his career. The problem is that he is technically a poor striker, and is incredibly awkward on the feet. This awkward striking style could play in his favor though. When MMA fighters reach the upper-echelon of the sport (i.e. UFC, Bellator, PFL, etc....) they are often training and preparing for fights with other fighters who are of a similar caliber. These guys typically are technically sound strikers who have refined skills with both their hands and their feet. This often means that they are somewhat predictable with their combinations, technique, and footwork. This prepares the fighter to defend against a striker with a high level of skill, and the look that said fighter sees on a daily basis in training, as it pertains to the striking aspect of the game, becomes very consistent and familiar. When this fighter is presented with an opponent with an “awkward” striking style (different angles, footwork, combinations, etc…) that is unlike anything they have seen or trained with before, then they may find themselves with a more porous striking defense then they normally have. Defending “awkward” strikes can often put themselves in a position where they are taking strikes and damage from angles and combinations that they have not prepared for. Awkward striking doesn’t always mean “bad”, and can actually be a benefit for a fighter facing a well-trained defensive striker, as they may not be prepared for the unorthodox footwork, angles, and combinations, and could lead to a KO loss, or getting outpointed on the judges’ scorecards. This is a very good reason why judges should not be critiquing the striking technique on display, but focus solely on the accuracy and power delivered from the strikes, and not the form and technique behind the strikes.

Ishihara (10-4-2) is 26 and he’s 3-2, 1 NC in the UFC. The Japan native has been training full-time with Team Alpha Male in Sac-town, so his all-around game should have improving with leaps and bounds. Now is about the time that we should see Ishihara turning the corner, and heading one of two ways; either upping his game to a level that will put him on a trajectory to compete for a belt, or we’ll quickly see that he does not have the will and mental fortitude to reach the level of the sport needed to compete for a belt. Only time will tell, but I think this is a defining fight for Ishihara, and should give us a glimpse into which path he is heading down. Ishihara has proven to be inconsistent so far in his UFC career as he’s shown brutal KO power at times while at other times getting dominated by fighters like Gray Maynard. However I do like this move down to 135 for him and from what I’ve seen from training footage he looks like he’s a solid fit at this weight.

Style matchup favors Quinonez due to his wrestling game and grinding mentality. Ishihara has a solid stand up game with adequate power in his hands, but his success is all predicated on the matchup that the UFC gives him, and this isn’t the optimal formula for long-term success in the UFC. I do see value in Ishihara’s $7,500 salary when you consider his Inside The Distance prop odds (ITD) are +248, and Quinonez’s ITD odds are +380. This is a pretty big gap when you consider the betting odds and DK salary of each fighter. I don’t mind taking a flyer on Ishihara with his low salary and reasonable betting odds and ITD prop odds. We know his path to victory is most likely on the feet by KO, so if he can keep it standing and unleash the power in his hands, then his odds of victory increase immensely. That is a big “IF” though. There aren’t many “Live Dogs” on this card, and because of this there should be quite a few lineups that look the same or very similar. We’ll need to take a flyer on a few fighters that I normally wouldn’t want to back because of this, and Ishihara will be one of these flyers. I wouldn’t classify him as a total “punt”, as I do think he has a legit shot at winning this fight, but he’ll need to show some drastic improvement in his takedown defense over what we have seen in the past, and this is definitely possible since he has been training with one of the best wrestle heavy camps in MMA today.

→ Ishihara dropping to 135 pounds for the first time for this fight. Should this concern us? Based on a picture from yesterday, he is looking thin and cut, so I would not see this as a “concern” for our LU’s now. Faber and the guys at Team Alpha Male have an impressive wrestling background, and if there is one “fighting style” that has experience in cutting weight, its wrestling. This should not be an issue for Ishihara, and should give him an advantage, that is most likely getting overlooked by many, on Saturday night!

 PICK: Ishihara, TKO, 2nd                           

Cash Game: Ishihara (6.5/10): This could be considered a punt play within our Cash LU’s, but we’re saving some serious coin here, and giving us a chance at victory at the same time. We’ll see.

GPP: Ishihara (7.5/10): One of the few “Live Dogs” on the card (in my book, but not others), but we need him to keep it standing. Has his TD defense improved enough through training at TAM? His salary is what we need to build a winner!

         Quinonez (7/10): I like his style, as it plays nicely with the DK scoring format. He should rack up the TD’s, but we’ll need Ishihara to keep working his way to his feet so “Q” can take him down again, and again, and again…..

Pearson (19-14) is 33 and he’s 11-11 in the UFC. The Brit has been fighting in the UFC for nearly a decade now and has bounced around between 145 and 155 as a gatekeeper. Pearson is a solid boxer that is very technical, and does have some power in his hands. His ground game is very limited, and his only path to victory in this one is to catch Hirota on the chin, get a knockdown, and swarm for the finish. He may be able to outpoint the Japanese fighter by boxing him up from the outside, but anything having to do with the clinch or the fight taking place predominantly on the ground will most likely mean the Brit will drop his 5th fight in the UFC, and will most likely be hitting the road.

Pearson has fought the best of the best in both divisions over the years, and his 23 fights in the UFC have seriously worn him down! The mileage that he has racked up in the UFC over the years has got to be at the top of the heap when you start comparing him against the rest of the fighters on the UFC roster, regardless of division. It’s an impressive career that he has had over the past 10 years - not necessarily because of his success and the wins that he has racked up, but just the sheer number of fights, the battles he’s been in, and most impressive, the talent level of fighters that he has squared up with while competing in the UFC. It’s 2nd to none, and I just hope he is recognized by the UFC and the fans for what he has given to the sport over a truly impressive amount of time competing in the most violent sport in the world against the toughest competition  

Hirota (18-8-2) is 36 and he’s 1-3-1 in the UFC. The Japan native is a long-time native of the sport but in the UFC he has been nothing more than a gatekeeper. Like Pearson, Hirota has only fought good competition but he’s never truly impressed at the highest level of the sport because he’s not elite in at least one area of the game. Hirota is a decent grappler but Pearson has solid takedown defense and on the feet Pearson should have the advantage. I don’t see many paths to victory for Hirota either.

So now we have 2 fighters who are in their mid 30’s, but are closer to being in their mid 60’s when it comes what their likely “fighting age” is. Both of these guys are MMA weathered and have very few fights left in them, especially at the elite level of the sport. Pearson has seen 45% of his fights finish in a decision, and Hirota has seen 58% of his fights going to the judges’ scorecards. Their Inside the Distance props aren’t very impressive either, with Pearson at +429 and Hirota at +400 - ranked 20th and 18th respectively on the card (out of 24 fighters). 

One final stat for you guys; you probably have all heard about my in-depth algorithm that I created a few years back called Weighted Point Total (WPT). A fighter’s WPT takes into account 10-12 different stats, odds, and other factors that are centered around the DraftKings scoring system, making it a highly relevant algorithm that is weighted based on the importance of the factor as it pertains to the DK scoring format. Below is a listing of each fighter’s WPT, their WPT ranking (1-24), the difference from the highest ranked WPT fighter on the card, the WPT gap between them and their opponent, and their DK salary and betting odds. As you can see, Pearson and Hirota accurately rank last and 2nd to last (24th and 23rd) when it comes to their WPT! This isn’t a good thing from a DFS perspective! 

With all of these factors taking into consideration, I don’t see either of these guys being “targetable” (yes, I just made up that word, and I like it) in any format. I’m surprised that Pearson is a -150 betting favorite, and carries an $8,600 DK salary! I would never pay that for Pearson in any format, even if I was given free entry into any and every contest that I entered with him on my roster! I’ll tread very lightly here, and I’ll have maybe a small hint of Hirota in a GPP or two because he is cheap, and who knows - maybe Pearson gets caught and folds. I don’t think either will be very highly owned, so if Hirota can pull off a scummy victory at this price tag, then it’s definitely a solid DFS victory for our LU’s. If you have a head on your shoulders, then I’d save your money and look elsewhere.

PICK: Pearson, Decision, Unanimous                 

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A (Hirota in a GPP or two if I’m entering 10 or more lineups)

Here we go, a true “mid-range” fight! We love those mid-range fights, as it gives us plenty of options when it comes to constructing our lineups. Formiga is 32 and 6-4 in the UFC, and the Brazilian is one of the most talented grapplers in the flyweight division! The guy is legit! Formiga has probably the best backmount in the entire sport. If he can get you to the ground and he eventually gets your back, then you might as well tap before he even gets a choke on you because it is basically inevitable that he will get the choke and it’s over. Can he get it to the ground though - that is the question.  

Formiga is coming off of an impressive submission win over Ulka Sasaki. He has had some hiccups in his UFC career that have prevented him from reaching the title level but he also has an impressive resume where he has fought the best of the best in the flyweight division. Before the win over Sasaki he lost a decision to Ray Borg, beat Dustin Ortiz by decision, lost to Henry Cejudo by decision, and won a decision over Wilson Reis. Over his last 5 fights where he has alternated wins and losses, he has landing the following number of DK scorable significant strikes; 9, 30, 8, 25, and 21. He obviously is not a very active or effective striker, so if you are going to roster Formiga you are basically looking for a back-take and a submission victory, otherwise you can pretty much chalk up a decision loss, or a gross decision win that is decided by position and submission threats, but not a victory that would rack up many points. 

Nguyen is 29 and he’s 4-1 in the UFC, and the American is a dangerous flyweight with a lot of upside that is coming off of a huge submission win over Tim Elliott where he was a +175 underdog to a fighter who was on a roll. He has a ton of finishing ability on the feet and is a very active striker, averaging 4.54 SLpM whereas Formiga is only averaging 1.25 SLpM, the worst on the card. Nguyen will obviously want to keep this one standing and utilize his aggressive, high-volumed attack on the Brazilian. If Formiga does get the fight to the ground Nguyen still is capable of defending himself, as he holds a brown belt in BJJ himself. He’ll want to get the fight back to the feet as soon as he can, and be sure not to give up his back to Formiga.

From a DFS perspective, this is definitely a fight to target in my eyes. Nguyen has the 8th ranked WPT on the card, while Formiga is only ranked 22nd. This is a little deceptive, as Formiga’s game is completely predicated on whether he can get the fight to the ground or not, and if he can’t, then it is typically a slow paced striking affair from the Brazilian who doesn’t take many chances on the feet. Nguyen’s game is much more suited for DraftKings and it’s high-volume scoring format.

This is a difficult one to call, because if Formiga does get it to the ground, then I think he has a legit chance of ending the fight quickly thereafter. Nguyen is the younger, quicker, and more athletic fighter with a more diverse MMA game than Formiga who predominantly banks on his BJJ game to earn him victories in MMA. Formiga’s 20 MMA victories are spread out with 11 wins by way of decision, and the other 9 coming by submission. That’s right - zero wins by TKO/KO! 56% of his fights have gone to a decision, where Nguyen has only had 14% of his 22 fights have gone to decision! I will have most of my exposure to Nguyen due to his diverse MMA game, high-volumed striking attack, his ability to keep the fight standing (70% TD defense), and even if Formiga does ge the fight to the ground Nguyen has the ability to get it back to the feet, or weather the storm that is Formiga’s ground game.

PICK: Nguyen, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Nguyen (8/10): I like his chances of victory due to having more paths to victory, and his high-volumed striking game.

GPP: Nguyen (8.5/10): His ceiling is much higher than Formiga’s, and his output is much more attractive than Formiga’s, and I can get him for a reasonable $8,100? Sign me up!

          Formiga (7/10): I’ll have a little bit of exposure in the multi-entry GPP’s, but the majority will be on Nguyen.

Volkanovski (16-1) is 29 and he’s 3-0 in the UFC. The Australian is one of the best featherweight prospects in the UFC currently. He’s a physically strong fighter with an excellent grappling game and vicious ground-and-pound! Volkanovski is fighting in front of his home crowd, and he will definitely feed off of this energy, just like he did back in November against Shane Young.

Kennedy (11-0) is 25 and he’s 3-0 in the UFC. The Canadian has been on a tear since beginning his MMA career and has looked great in the UFC, particularly in regards to his grappling skills. However he hasn’t shown much in the way of finishing power or striking and that could hurt him as he continues to fight better competition. Kennedy also has to travel halfway across the world for this fight too, and this could play a factor, as Volkanovski is fighting in front of his home crowd!

Both of these guys have bright futures in the UFC, but Volkanovski is the more aggressive, effective striker that will prove to be the difference in this one. Volk averages 5.53 SLpM in his 3 UFC fights so far, while Kennedy only averages 2.53 SLpM! The Australian also has more power in his hands, and has proven to have a chin as well. Both have 2 of the lower Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM) on the card, but I don’t necessarily think this is due to their effective striking defense. It most likely has more to do with their poor level of competition that they’ve seen in the UFC so far. They have been coddled so far, which is fine, as the UFC should be investing in these two and trying to create stars out of them, but when it comes down to it, Volkanovski is the better all-around fighter, and has a high ceiling to boot. His -205 betting line seems a little low to me, as I think a -250 to -300 seems more appropriate. I’ll be putting a small bet down on the Australian as well.

PICK: Volkanovski, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Volkanovski (9/10): I like his odds of victory, and his floor is pretty high, as I don’t see him getting run over by Kennedy in any facet of the MMA game.

GPP: Volkanovski (9/10): He may be pricey at $8,900, but he has a high ceiling, and shouldn’t have a problem paying that salary off based on his output and his previous performances in the cage.

Israel Adesanya (11-0) is 28 and he’s making his UFC debut. The Nigerian is a kickboxer by trade and has put together an impressive start to his MMA career by winning all of his fights by knockout so far, including a recent KO win over Melvin Guillard. Questions remain about his grappling but as far as his striking goes it’s clear he’s an elite kickboxer, and a promising addition to the UFC middleweight division. Rob Wilkinson (11-1) is 25 and is 0-1 in the UFC with a TKO loss to Siyar Bahadurzada. The Australian is a finisher and 10 of his victories have come by stoppage but the knockout loss to Bahadurzada is concerning, especially going up against the striker of Adesanya’s caliber.

We really don’t know much about either of these guys, but what I can tell you is that Adesanya is highly hyped and looks very impressive when you look at his kickboxing highlights, and his recent MMA bouts against a bunch of tomato cans including the has-been former UFC vet, Melvin Guillard, whom he beat viciously in the 1st round back in July of last year. Adesanya is beatable though. If you put an experienced wrestler in the cage with him, he most likely loses. I also could see a striker who closes the distance and doesn’t let Adesanya throw at distance, like he likes to do, and dirty boxes him against the cage, beat him either by decision or by eventual TKO once IA realizes that he doesn’t get to breath and recover with a standing 8 count. Wilkinson does not have any of these attributes, so Adesanya will not be getting his first loss this weekend. He will walk out with a KO victory within the first 2 frames, but will he be able to pay off his salary of $9,200? If he wins in the 1st round, yes, most likely, as he should get a knockdown before standing over his foe and raining down punches before the ref pulls him off for the TKO victory. If that happens in the first minute or two, then the Nigerian kickboxer should earn anywhere from 100 - 115 points. If he plays with Wilkinson for the first few minutes, racking up some significant strike points before eventually going in for the kill late in the 1st round, then he could easily earn 110-125 points, which will most likely see him on the GPP winning lineups. I like Adesanya a lot here, even if he is unproven yet. The UFC is setting him up for an impressive victory, and that is exactly what he gets here.

PICK: Adesanya, TKO, 1st 

Cash Game: Adesanya (9.5/10): He’s worth paying for, but clear some cap space in order to roster him.

GPP: Adesanya (8/10): His ceiling is pretty high here, so long as Wilkinson can take a little bit of a beating before succumbing to the vicious striking of the Nigerian. Hopefully Mario Yamasaki is reffing his fight, then I’ll feel really good about this one!

Fight #7 of the night could be the show stealer. Dong Hyun Kim is a pressure fighter who always likes to be moving forward, while Damien Brown prefers to counterstrike while retreating, looking to catch his foe with his hands down and chin exposed. It’s proven to be a successful style for him, but he’s bound to take some damage if he wants to execute his gameplan. As he’s aged and his chin has started to fade, this style will become less and less effective. Both fighters have pretty porous striking defense, each right at about 5.0 SApM - two of the worst ratios on the card from a defensive striking perspective. Oh yes, strikes will land, but whos chin will hold up the longest?

Kim (15-8-3) is 29 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The South Korean native has proven to be a very exciting fighter so far in his UFC career and is coming off of a big TKO win over Takanori Gomi. Kim’s chin has cost him two knockout losses in the UFC so far but there’s no doubt he’s an action-packed fighter with the ability to finish fights on the feet and on the ground. He presses forward with his offensive attacks and he does so without a thought of defending the strikes that will be thrown at him as he pushes the action. His cardio isn’t anything to write home about, but damn is he fun to watch for a round and a half! The thing with Kim’s style is that if it does go to a decision he has a very good chance at winning a decision. Judge’s often looking at a fighter pressing forward as someone who is looking to end the fight, and that always resonates well on their scorecards, regardless if they are eating more shots on the way in than they’re delivering. The odds of a Kim victory if it does go to a decision are pretty high due to his aggressive, moving forward style. Brown does not want this one to go to the scorecards.

Brown is reentering the UFC cage only 2.5 months of losing an absolute war to Frank Camacho! He definitely took some serious damage in that fight, and for him to jump right back in there is somewhat concerning. With the recent concussion research showing that someone who receives another concussive blow not long after an initial concussive blow is more prone to being concussed the 2nd time, and could possible cause long term effects on their brain’s health. With this in mind, and knowing Brown’s age and the fights that he’s been involved in, I question whether his chin will be able to hold up under Kim’s onslaught. I’m expecting a really exciting fight here, and it really could go either way, but if it does go to a decision, I give Kim and his fighting style the edge in the judges’ eyes.

This is a pretty solid fight to target from a DFS perspective, especially for your GPP lineups. Both fighters throw a good amount of strikes, and both fighters have pretty shitty striking defense. There gas tanks aren’t great, and tired fighters tend to absorb more strikes and get taken down more often than fighters who have solid gas tanks. Kim’s aggressive style gives him a very solid chances at spoiling Brown’s homecoming, and his $8,500 price tag is reasonable, but I am concerned that if this gets into the 2nd or 3rd rounds that it will be tough for him to payoff his salary, especially if he doesn’t get any takedowns and advances on the ground. I’ll have some exposure to Brown in some of my GPP’s due to his reduced salary of $7,700, and he also sports a -3 Rank Value - ranking 14th in betting odds and 17th from a DK salary perspective. I wouldn’t cash the check just yet, but Brown isn’t a bad dog play, although I think he’ll probably lose this one, he does present some nice value, especially fighting in front of his home crowd and not having to travel.

PICK: Kim, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Brown (7.5/10): We need to roster a few dogs, and Brown isn’t a bad option, especially for Cash LU’s, as his floor is pretty high. He’s a tough dude who won’t go easy, and these are the guys who can rack up some points even in a loss.

GPP: Brown (8/10): A Live Dog? Ehhh….not really, but close enough. This one is more betting on his heart, fighter’s will, Fight IQ, and the fact that he’s fighting at home.           

          Kim (7/10): His higher price tag make him less attractive in GPP’s, although I think they both have a good opportunity to score well in your GPP LU’s.

Main Card

The UFC is working hard to develop some stars in the Land Down Under, and they have a solid stable of prospects to choose from, and the first fight of the main card features one of those heralded prospects - Tyson Pedro. Pedro (6-1) is 26 and he’s 2-1 in the UFC. The Australian finished the first six fights of his career by stoppage before running into Ilir Latifi in his last bout and losing a decision. Pedro is a well-rounded fighter with solid submission skills and an evolving striking game that uses effective strikes from the clinch. His top game on the ground is deadly, and this is ultimately where Pedro would like to end up, but it’s a risky play. If Safarov gets top position, then Pedro may find himself in the only position where he could possibly lose this fight - on the bottom.

Safarov (8-1) is 31 and he’s 0-1 in the UFC. The Russian is primarily a striker and the majority of his wins before coming into the UFC came via TKO. In his UFC debut he was knocked out by Gian Villante in a back-and-forth war and while it was an exciting fight it was definitely concerning how much damage he took in the fight and that his cardio didn’t hold up. I’m expecting a fun standup contest to open the PPV card, and Pewdro’s well-rounded game will end up being too much for the tough Russian to handle.

We like betting on fighters who have a well-rounded game and are taking on an opponent who is tough, can take a punch, and will put up enough of a fight to allow our fighter to rack up points by landing strikes, getting takedowns, advances, and ultimately finishing him late in the first round. This could be the exact situation that we are looking at here, so I’ll definitely have some shares of Pedro in all formats, so long as I can afford him. I wouldn’t be scared to roster him, as he should be able to payoff his salary when combining his style with Safarov’s. For what its worth, Pedro looks like he is in the shape of his life for this fight! 

PICK: Pedro, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Pedro (9/10): You’ll have to pay for him, but I think he scores highly and has a huge chance at victory.

GPP: Pedro (8.5/10): I like Pedro in GPP’s as well, but he will be highly owned, so keep that in mind when rostering him.

Li Jingliang (14-4) is 29 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC with five knockouts. The China native is the best fighter from his country currently in MMA. He has a ton of knockout power and is currently riding a four-fight win streak in the UFC including a brutal knockout of Zak Ottow in his last bout. His grappling still needs to improve but as far as his striking goes, not many welterweights can stand and bang with this guy. He looks like someone that you’d see in a modern day Street Fighter movie, and his striking backs that thought up!

Jake Matthews (11-3) is 23 and he’s 5-3 in the UFC. The Australian is a big young kid and was looking like a very promising lightweight prospect but after losing fights when he stepped in competition decided to make the move to welterweight and won in his 170 debut against Bojan Velickovic. He has a solid grappling game including submission skills but I’m still worried the UFC has given him too difficult a matchup here against a dangerous striker like Jingliang. Matthews was uber-hyped at one point in his career, but he has been pretty disappointing recently, as his game has plateaued over the past few years. Matthews has been trained by his father throughout his career, and I think this has caused him to not evolve as a fighter. Most elite level fighters these days are either hooked up with one of the top 15-20 camps in the US, or they at least travel around visiting these camps to train with the best coaches and training partners that money can buy. 

This is a tough fight to call, and I’ll most likely have some exposure to both fighters, as I see paths to victory for both guys that are realistic. Jingliang won’t be cheap to roster, but he’s got some solid upside, but his ceiling is not one of the highest on the card. With the current DK scoring format it is nice to see some takedowns and advances on the ground, all while mixing in some consistent striking. This is the recipe for a 110+ DK score. You also need a tough opponent who is willing to engage and can find his way back to his feet if he does get taken down. While Matthews could take Jingliang down, I think it’s more likely Jingliang keeps this fight on the feet and outstrikes Matthews for either a decision win or another knockout. I will have some exposure to Matthews in multi-entry GPP’s though, because he will look to get this one to the ground, and if he is successful, then he could easily win a decision from his home country judges that is heavily littered with takedowns and a superior ground game.

PICK: Jingliang, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Matthews (7.5/10): Punt play to some degree.

GPP: Jingliang (7/10): May be tough to payoff his salary if he can’t end this one in the 1st or late in the 2nd.        

          Matthews (7.5/10): I’d consider him a Live Dog, and he’s worth rostering if you like to gamble! His upside is high, but he’ll have a tough time getting the fight to the ground where he wants it, but if he does, the payoff is impressive.

Tai Tuivasa (6-0) is 24 and he’s 1-0 in the UFC. The big Australian is a knockout artist and is quickly emerging as a heavyweight prospect to watch out for. All of his career wins are by TKO including a brutal knockout over Rashad Coulter in his UFC debut. There are obviously still question marks about the rest of his game but the UFC has been giving him favorable matchups and this one against Asker is no different. Tuivasa’s cardio definitely is a concern for me, but I don’t think that Asker will be the one to test it this weekend. He is one of those uber-hyped young Australian fighters that the UFC is trying to build, but he is incredibly raw when it comes to his MMA game. He will evolve and get better over time, and he has the foundation to build a successful heavyweight on, but it will be a learning process that won’t be pretty to watch sometimes. Cyril Asker (9-3) is 32 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The French native has the ability to finish the fight on the feet and on the mat but his chin is not good and he’s already been knocked out twice in the UFC. He’s nothing more than a gatekeeper to the bottom in the heavyweight division and the UFC is matching up accordingly.

The UFC is setting up Tuivasa to get a big knockout victory on home soil and I predict that’s exactly what he will do in this one. Tuivasa is the most expensive fighter on the card, and he will be highly owned (maybe the highest on the card). I will roster Tuivasa in some lineups, but he won’t be in my top 5 GPP lineups, as his upside is somewhat limited, his ownership will be high, his salary is high, and his cardio scares the hell out of me. Just not very attractive in my eyes, so roster accordingly.

PICK: Tuivasa, KO, 1st

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Tuivasa (7/10): HIghly owned with a limited upside and poor cardio.                        

          Asker (6.5/10): Tuivasa will be so highly owned that game theory says that we should have a roster or two with Asker in it. The long shot if he wins and he’s in your LU would be beautiful!                    

Snapshot: 

I really like this heavyweight matchup that is our co-main event of the evening. This fight opened as a pick ‘em, but most of the money has come in on the younger, more athletic Blaydes, who now stands as a -162 favorite. Blayeds has a very reasonable price tag of $8,400, and he has a rank value of -3, which is great, and is tied with Damien Brown and Daichi Abe as the best Rank Value on the card. Blaydes (8-1, 1 NC) is 26 and he’s 3-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The American is a very solid wrestler with devastating ground-and-pound and improving striking skills. The heavyweight division is in dire need of fresh contenders and Blaydes absolutely has the chance to be the next big thing, though he still has some question marks, including his striking defense which Francis Ngannou exploited in his only career loss to date. He has an incredible 8 inch reach advantage too, and if Blaydes can’t get this fight to the ground, like he wants to, then at least he has this going for him.

Mark Hunt (13-11-1, 1 NC) is 43 and he’s 8-5-1, 1 NC in the UFC. The New Zealand native is one of the sport’s all-time greatest heavyweight knockout artists and is coming off an impressive TKO win over Derrick Lewis. Hunt has fought the best of the best at heavyweight his entire career and while he is one of the oldest fighters on the roster he’s still incredibly dangerous. Historically his takedown defense hasn’t been great and in recent years his chin has shown signs of weakness but there’s still no question he has the type of one-punch KO power than can end any fight. This is a really tough matchup to call.

Blaydes is obviously a tremendous wrestler and while he has showed solid striking in his last fight there’s no question Hunt is the superior striker. Hunt is old and his takedown defense has been questionable at times but he still has massive knockout power and almost always performs well in Australia. Time has past Hunt by, and this is Blaydes time! I really like Blaydes’ style and upside for his $8,400 salary. He’ll get the takedowns that he’s looking for and he’ll rack up points with advances and ground and pound, and even if he doesn’t finish the fight before the final bell, he still could easily payoff his salary with his style of fight - takedowns, advances, GNP, and a solid chin with good cardio. I like my chances with this combo. He will be highly owned, which sucks, and it might make sense to take Hunt in a LU or two because of Blaydes high ownership level.

PICK: Blaydes, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Blaydes (8.5/10): Not a guarantee he will win, but his upside is high, his price tag is low, and Hunt doesn’t stuff takedowns very well.

GPP: Blaydes (8.5/10): All the things I mentioned above, although his high ownership has hurt his GPP ranking a little bit.

Snapshot:

Our main event pits all-american Luke Rockhold against Cuba’s hero, Yoel Romero. An interesting matchup that could really go either way. DraftKings has these guys priced in the mid-range with Rockhold holding an $8,300 salary and Romero priced at $7,900. Both these guys are in play in all formats, and I’ll have exposure to both of these fighters in my GPP LU’s, but I need to make a stand and pick a side, right?

Rockhold (16-3) is 33 and he’s 6-2 in the UFC. The American is one of the most talented middleweight fighters in the world and has an extremely well-rounded game as he’s able to finish his opponents on the floor and on the feet. He’s coming off of a submission win over David Branch, bouncing back nicely after his shocking KO loss to Michael Bisping a few years ago. I still think Rockhold is an amazing fighter and despite the question marks concerning his chin I believe he can hoist the middleweight strap once again. If he can effectively use his range, stuff Romero’s TD’s and avoid Romero’s heavy hands, then I don’t think there is a way he can lose.

Romero (12-2) is 40 and he’s 8-2 in the UFC. The Cuban is an elite middleweight with an incredible wrestling pedigree to go along with massive knockout power. He’s one of the best in the world and is deserving of this interim title opportunity while Robert Whittaker, who beat him in his last fight, is injured. One of Romero’s issues is his cardio and that could hurt him here against Rockhold, who has an endless gas tank.

This matchup really is tight, and it could go either way. With that being said, I don’t feel comfortable leaning heavily one way or the other due to how close this matchup is. I won’t be investing heavily in either guy from a DraftKings perspective, as there are numerous other plays on the card that I feel more confident in and would rather roster than either of these two studs. Unfortunately that’s not a very sexy answer, but that’s the reality of the situation. As you all know by now, I don’t like to invest heavily in fighters that are involved well-matched fights that could go either way. I also don’t like to back fighters or fights that have a lot of question marks. I’d rather be confident in my selections, and I’d be lying if I said I know for sure what will happen in this fight. With a gun to my head I’d say that Rockhold avoids the big punches from Romero, strikes from the outside, eventually wears down the Cuban and exposes his gas tank which has been his achilles heel. The fact that this is a 5 round fight bodes very well for Rockhold, and he and his camp have high Fight IQ’s, so I’d assume that they’d be looking to drag this fight into the later rounds to gain a bigger advantage in all aspects of the fight game. Keep in mind that Romero missed weight on his first attempt and came in 3 pounds over. He then grabbed the mic and said it was because it was late notice, and didn’t have enough time to get to the proper weight. If that is the case when it comes to his weight, then how do you think his cardio will be? If he hasn’t had time to get to the proper weight, then he definitely hasn’t had time to improve his cardio or get it to where it needs to be to beat a physical specimen like Luke Rockhold.

I’ll have some exposure to Rockhold in GPP’s and I’ll also have some multi-entry GPP LU’s with Romero in them as well (maybe 65/35 Rockhold). Stacking these two from a Cash perspective is not a bad idea either, so don’t be surprised if you see me with both these guys in my Cash LU’s.

PICK: Rockhold, TKO, 4th

Cash Game: Stack - why not?

GPP: Rockhold (7.5/10): Don’t love it, but I’ll have a 25% exposure to Rockhold most likely.

          Romero (6.5/10): If he doesn’t land the haymaker earlier, it could be a long night for Romero.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

**Pivot → Nguyen $8,100

Cash 2 - Main Event Stack

GPP 1

**Pivot → Can insert Ishihara in either spot

GPP 2