MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 125

**UPDATED: Saturday, Feb 3 @ 1:35pm ET**

The UFC makes a weekend trip to Belem, Brazil for the 125th Fight Night installment. The 2018 season is in full swing, and man is this is a difficult card to handicap! Last week’s card had an incredible amount of high-scoring lineups littered throughout every GPP on DraftKings! Within the MMA Fantasy Championship league we averaged 510 points over 80 league members! Prior to the 510 being the new high water mark when it came to average score, 437 was the previous high! Last week basically had 8-10 fighters that should be considered for rosters, and everyone and their brother had very similar lineups, making for an incredible amount of ties!

This week is completely different, as there are many different ways that you can construct your lineup. Last week there were very few mid-range fighters that were rosterable, especially if you didn’t roster any of the fighters from the 3 women’s fights on the card, which pretty much everyone did. This week we have a number of mid-range options that allow us to get very creative when constructing our Cash and GPP rosters. 

Keep in mind, my fight by fight breakdown below gives you the info and the tools to construct your own lineups, so don’t feel like you need to rely on my optimal lineups only. Use your creativity, and the info and insight that I provide for each fighter to construct your own lineups. 

Please feel free to follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA, as I’ll be commenting on LU construction, the fights, and anything else MMA related! Let’s make it rain! 

Undercard

Snapshot: 

Here we are! Back for another week of blood, sweat, and tears! This is a difficult card to handicap from a DFS perspective, as the mid-range is very difficult to predict. The first fight we have to look at is a comical matchup that really shouldn’t be taking place in the UFC! Maia Stevenson is UFC vet’s, Joe “Daddy” Stevenson,  wife, and I’m curious if the only reason why she is in the UFC is because Joe “Daddy” called in a favor or something. Maybe he has some dirty pics on one of the new execs…..who knows, but Maia should not be fighting at this level. She is 35 years old, and here’s the crazy stat of the week: out of her 6 wins, those 6 opponents have a combined record of 0-23! Yes, you read that correctly. The combined record of the 6 fighters that she has beat during her professional MMA career is zero wins and twenty three loses! This gives you a pretty good idea of the level of competition the she has fought during her pro MMA career. 

This is a HUGE mismatch on paper, and an even bigger mismatch in the cage! Polyana Viana is 25 years old, 10 years younger than Stevenson, has a very good grappling game, and has earned 9 stoppage victories out of her 9 total victories. She has only found herself competing outside of the 1st round twice before during her 10 fight pro career! She’s a finisher, and her grappling game is on another level than Stevenson’s. 

This one is pretty basic if you ask me; Stevenson will do all she can to hold Viana at bay, but the pressure will be too much, and she’ll eventually get Stevenson to the ground. Once on the mat, Viana will have her way, and will get advances and eventually submit Stevenson within 2:30 minutes of being on the ground. The one factor we need to be concerned about is if she’ll be able to payoff her salary or not. If she gets Stevenson to the ground quickly, then it could be a quick 95-100 point night, but I don’t think this is the case. Stevenson will get som licks in, will execute some advances on the mat, and will eventually lock up a submission for the win, and will have a DK score somewhere in the 110 - 120 range. I like Viana in all formats, especially GPP’s. I think she’ll be popular, but there is a possibility that she will fly under the radar due to her minimal popularity. The jury is still out on her ownership level. 

PICK: Viana, Sub, 1st

Cash Game:  Viana (8/10)

GPP: Viana (9/10)

Snapshot: 

The 2nd fight of the night is a great matchup of 2 undefeated prospects in the flyweight division, as 30 year old Deiveson Figueiredo (13-0) takes on 23 year old Team Alpha Male prospect, Joseph Morales (9-0). I almost wish that this fight wasn’t taking place, as I’d like to see the UFC build up these two fighters with a few more wins before matching them up. Regardless of the timing, this will be an awesome fight, and could easily be the FOTN based on both fighter’s style, skills, and cardio levels. 

Morales has an aggressive game that pushes forward consistently. While his wrestling game isn’t “elite”, he is an effective scrambler, and often finds himself in advantageous positions once a scramble has concluded. Mix in a heavy right hand and the ability to strike on the way in or on the way out, and Morales has the skills and pedigree to be a future champ, but it all depends on how he reacts to fighting upper-level competition like Figueiredo as an underdog. 

From a DFS perspective we have some value in this fight, as both fighters aren’t scared to mix it up, and their defensive skills are still evolving, and when you have two fighters who have question marks when it comes to striking defense, then that typically means DK points will be scored at a higher pace than a matchup with two defensive oriented fighters. This makes this a fight to target in my book. Morales brings in a salary of $7,800, but is only a slight underdog at +125, so there is definitely some value here in his salary. I’m considering Morales a “Live Dog” this weekend, and I’ll have him littered throughout my GPP LU’s, and he may also have a presence in my Cash LU as well. I’ll also have a little exposure to the Brazilian in a few GPP LU’s as well, but ultimately, the scrambling advantage that Morales brings to the table, combined with Figueiredo’s questionable defensive skills, and this fight sets up nicely for Morales, but you never know what will happen when you have a 23 year old KID traveling to Brazil to take on one of their own. Will the butterflies be too much to handle? Only time will tell. 

PICK: Morales, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Morales (7/10)

GPP: Morales (8/10) - LIVE DOG

Figueiredo (6.5/10)

Snapshot: 

Soto (18-6) is 30 and he’s 3-4 in the UFC. The American is a solid gatekeeper at 135 and can beat most of the lower-level guys in the division but he doesn’t react well when he steps up in competition. He’s an overall well-rounded fighter with a good submission game but his striking isn’t great and he’s been finished numerous times in his career. He is a finisher though, with 15 career stoppage wins, so he can’t be taken lightly. 

Alcantara (35-9, 1 NC) is 37 and he’s 9-6, 1 NC in the UFC. The Brazilian is a gatekeeper himself at this point of his career but he’s still a dangerous fighter. He has finishing power in his hands and submission prowess on the ground, though his takedown defense and cardio are poor. Alcantara has some serious mileage on his body, and he’s been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career. He’ll look like a world-beater one fight, and the next fight he’s getting KO’ed by the bouncer at the bar across the street from the arena. You just can’t trust the guy. 

I will be avoiding this one for the most part due to the number of question marks surrounding both fighters. At this weight class, with these two track records, I just don’t have confidence in rostering either of these guys and feeling good about it. I will have minor exposure in some mass-entry GPP’s, but I won’t have either of these guys in a single entry GPP lineup or my Cash LU. Just too many unknowns. 

PICK: Soto, Decision, Split

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Soto (6/10)

Snapshot: 

Vera (10-4-1) is 25 and he’s 4-3 in the UFC. The Ecuadorian is one of the best fighters to emerge from TUF Latin America and has put together a solid run in the UFC with three finishes including a stoppage win over Brad Pickett in his retirement fight. Vera is a solid striker who is lanky and uses his range well. He’s lost a few fights in the UFC by being outwrestled, but I don’t think de Andrade has that type of game to expose Vera’s subpar wrestling game. Vera continues to improve every time he enters the UFC cage, and with him only being 25 years old and entering the UFC Octagon for the 9th time, I truly believe that we’ll continue to see Vera improve, and has an opportunity to crack the Top 15 in his division within the next year or two. 

De Andrade (24-2, 1 NC) is 32 and he’s 2-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian is an excellent striker with big finishing power and he has 19 career knockout wins, but his striking game has become somewhat exposed as he has made the leap to UFC competition. DeAndrade throws looping punches that can put people to sleep, but he has found a tougher time landing these looping punches as he’s stepped up in competition. If he hasn’t improved his boxing, and tightened up his punches, then Vera will be able to easily read the telegraphed punches, get out of the way, and counter punch. This could easily be the recipe for victory for Vera, as his quickness and Octagon experience will allow him to outpoint de Andrade as the fight wears on. 

I’ll be avoiding this fight for the most part from a DFS perspective, but I am leaning towards a bet on this one. This matchup has a stalemate written all over it, as Vera will need to avoid the looping power punches from de Andrade, stay on the outside, and outpoint the Brazilian with jabs, low kicks, and selective surges into the pocket. Vera should also be open to taking this one to the mat, as I do believe that he has the advantage on the ground in this one. 

With Vera needing to avoid the big punches, this fight is looking like it could be a low scoring DFS affair without much volume being thrown from either fighter. The recipe for victory here is for Vera to avoid de Andrade’s big, looping punches, stay tight in the pocket, and land those counter jabs and crosses to outpoint his foe on the judge’s scorecards.The only opportunity for a big DK score here is if Vera starts landing some strikes, gets a takedown, and locks up a submission late in round 1. If that doesn’t happen, then it should be a pretty low scoring affair where Vera wins a ho-hum decision, and scores maybe 85 DK points. I’ll have a small exposure to Vera in mass-entry GPP’s, but I’ll be avoiding for the most part in single-entry GPP’s and Cash as well. 

PICK: Vera, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A - Feel free to roster Vera knowing that he has a pretty low ceiling and floor here. 

GPP: Vera (7.5/10)

De Andrade (7/10)

Snapshot: 

The Brazilian, Alan Patrick, enters this fight as a -237 favorite with a $9,000 DK salary. He hasn’t fought in about a year and a half, so ring rust may be an issue, but his style isn’t one that relies on timing and flow in the cage. He is a grinding, wrestling based fighter that has a lot of success once he gets his opponent to the mat, and is able to overwhelm him with top control and GNP. 

Damir Hadzovic comes into his 3rd UFC fight as a +194 underdog, and has a pretty cheap $7,200 price tag. Hadzovic is heavy-handed, and can put pretty much anyone to sleep in the division, but his wrestling is sub-par, and he hasn’t found a way to keep his fights standing, or a get up off of his back once he’s put there. Hadzovic will need to close the distance and dirty box Patrick from the clinch and up against the cage in order to have a chance at winning this one. But this also means that he will be opening himself up to getting taken down by Patrick, who has a much better wrestling game than the Bosnian does. This is a situation where in order for Hadzovic to win, he’ll need to enter the lions den and be able to hold his own and not get put on his back. Easier said than done when you are talking about a fighter like Alan Patrick who has an aggressive, smothering top game. 

This is an interesting matchup from a DFS perspective. I could see Hadzovic landing that one, sleep-inducing punch on the Brazilian, but he’ll need to land it early on in the fight, or he’ll have to prove to us that he can stuff Patrick’s takedown attempts, and keep the fight on the feet where he’ll eventually land that punch that he needs to KO the Brazilian. Hadzovic’s upside is great when you consider his $7,200 salary, but in order for him to achieve this upside potential, a lot of things will need to fall into place for him, and that’s tough to imagine. 

Patrick has a great style for DraftKings’ scoring system, as he’ll look for takedowns early and often. If he does get the TD, then he’ll look to advance on the ground, deliver ground N pound when appropriate, and look to lock up a submission when it presents itself. This is a recipe for a high-scoring bout in a victory, and I think he’ll pay off his $9,000 salary, but I do think the $9k price tag is a little high, especially when factoring in the odds and possibility of Hadzovic being able to stuff the TD and keep the fight standing. I also see value in the Bosnian, as his price tag is just too low to ignore. He could easily land that fight-ending punch, and if he does, he’ll easily payoff his cheap $7,200 salary. 

I’ll have exposure to both of these guys, as I could see it going both ways. I’ll roster Hadzovic in a few contrarian focused GPP lineups and hope that he can keep the fight standing, land some heavy punches, and end the fight with a KO - ultimately paying off his cheap salary easily! Hadzovic’s ceiling is probably in the 105 range, whereas, Patrick has a ceiling in the 120ish range due to his wrestling based attack that incorporates advances, ground N pound, and hopefully a submission. I got a feeling that the winner of this fight will be on the roster of many winning GPP lineups. 

PICK: Patrick, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Patrick (8.5/10)

GPP: Patrick (8.5/10)

Hadzovic (7.5/10)

Snapshot: 

Tim Means (27-9-1, 1 NC) is 33 and he’s 9-6, with 1 NC in the UFC. The American is one of the most accurate, powerful strikers in the welterweight division and also one of the most exciting as he’s consistently involved in wars. When he opens up and allows his striking to flow without concern of being KO’ed, then his striking is on another level. But we’ve also seen Means fight conservatively with a low volumed striking attack that just doesn’t fit well with his game. Typically the fights where he sits back, counter-strikes, and allows his opponent to dictate the pace of the fight, are the fights that he usually loses by decision or eventually gets taken down and submitted. Means’ inconsistent performances make him difficult to roster with confidence. If you could guarantee me that we’ll get the Means that throws aggressive combinations with all limbs, then I’ll be the first in line to sign him up on my roster. If he is going to sit back and allow Moraes to have a say on where the fight takes place, and what the pace of the fight will be, then I would be very concerned that he will lost the fight either on the judges’ scorecards or by getting submitted. 

Moraes (12-3-1) is 35 and he’s 6-2-1 in the UFC. The Brazilian has been one of the best gatekeepers at 170 for a few years now but the one-sided loss he had to Kamaru Usman his last time out shows he’s not a true contender. Still, he has a strong wrestling game and his submissions are excellent so he can’t be taken lightly. I like this matchup between two gatekeepers but every fight starts standing and Means will have a huge advantage on the feet if he fights with the aggressive striking style that has made him a popular fighter to watch in the welterweight division. 

I will be leaning towards Means on this one, but I don’t have the utmost confidence in this selection. Means seems to be weak when it comes to his mental preparation, and if he doesn’t impose his will, and fight with a high Fight IQ, then I could easily see this one going to the hometown Brazilian by decision. Keep in mind that there will be Brazilian judges who are scoring these fights, and Brazilian judges have developed a reputation of scoring fights very inconsistently, and often times for their hometown boy when it is a close fight. This could very easily be the determining factor in this one. 

I’ll have a good amount of exposure to Means on this fight card, and here’s why. Watching Moraes last fight against Usman, he didn’t absorb Usman’s strikes very well at all. Usman utilized a low-kick that really bothered Moraes and became a factor very early in the match. On top of that low-kick, Moraes also did not like getting punched in the face. Yes, not many people enjoy getting punched in the face, but this was different. Moraes was covering up dramatically when Usman entered the pocket, and even when Usman landed less than powerful punches, Moraes reacted like he was getting hit with the butt of a shotgun. He did not react well to the low-kicks or the lighter than normal face punches. Yes, Usman has some power, but so does Means. If means can land some early low-kicks, and start picking apart Moraes with his long jab, then he should make short work of Moraes. In the fight against Usman I also noticed that Moraes’ punches became much more loopy once he started to take some damage from Usman. Means is too good of a striker to get caught by one of these looping hooks, so he’ll easily move out of the way, then eventually land a counter cross or hook and put Moraes to sleep. Look for a 1st or 2nd round KO here for Means. 

PICK: Means, KO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Means (7.5/10)

GPP: Means (7.5/10)

Main Card

Snapshot: 

The 7th fight of the night is one that you don’t want to miss! Hold your bladder. Load up on beers. Ignore the wife for 15 minutes. Whatever you do, make sure you’re in front of the TV for this fight, as it will not go the distance, and most likely will end with someone sleeping in the middle of the cage. Over each fighter’s last 3 fights, all 6 of the combined opponents have been left unconscious in the middle of the cage at the end of the fight! Something has to give when it comes to who is going to win, but not necessarily the unconscious part. 

Thiago Santos (16-5) is 34 and he’s 8-4 in the UFC with seven knockouts. The Brazilian is a powerful striker and is coming off of three-straight knockout wins. Not many fighters at 185 can stand with Santos, but his ground game is something that needs work. If Smith wants to give himself the best shot at victory, then he’ll look to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and work for a submission, as this is Santos’ biggest weakness in his game. If Santos can prevent the takedown, keep his distance from Smith, and has the gas tank to go hard for three rounds, then Santos should be able to end this one violently with his hand raised. 

Anthony Smith (28-12) is 29 and he’s 4-2 in the UFC with three-straight knockout wins. The American is a powerful striker and has a lot of momentum coming into this bout with 11 wins in his last 12 fights. Smith’s game has improved greatly over the past few years, and he’s gone from gatekeeper to potential contender if he can string together 2-3 more wins. Smith will need to utilize his head movement, counter striking, and active footwork in order to not get walked down by Santos. If Santos can get Smith cornered with his back against the cage, then there will be plenty of opportunity for Santos to land that one big shot that is needed to put Smith to sleep. Smith will need to circle away from Santos’ powerhand, keep his back off the cage, and look to score from the outside, or get the fight to the ground and lock up a submission. A lot of things need to be accomplished in order for Smith to pull out a victory, and it will be difficult for all of them to fall into place, but I don’t think the betting odds should be +250 for Smith! +180 - +200 seems like a more accurate line, so I may put a small bet on Smith due to the perceived line value here. With that being said, the upside that Smith brings to the table with a $7,000 salary is significant, especially knowing his few paths to victory will most likely involve a pretty high scoring fight for him. He’ll either win by getting a takedown, advancing position, and eventually locking up a submission, or by landing some heavy shots on Santos and putting him to sleep. Both of these (the former more so) will result in a solid night in the DraftKings’ cage, so he is worth the gamble if you need a Live Dog in your roster! 

This one could go either way, so it’s difficult to have much confidence in who you roster here, but when considering their salaries and their respective paths to victory, Smith provides the most bang for our buck, even if it is a long shot for him to win. If he can pull this one out, then he will be on the winning GPP roster! 

PICK: Santos, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Smith (7.5/10): I like the contrarian nature of this play, but it will be an unlikely result, but this is what we need to do in order to win GPP’s. 

Santos (7/10)

Snapshot: 

Marcelo Golm (6-0) is 25 and he’s making his 2nd appearance in the UFC cage. The Brazilian is undefeated with all of his wins coming by stoppage and looks like he could be a future heavyweight contender, but he still has a lot of question marks surrounding him. He’s only 25 years old, and he has a lot to learn, but take this all with a grain of salt, as the UFC heavyweight division is pretty damn shallow. He continues to improve each time out, and it’s been fun to watch this progression. He’s also fighting in front of his home crowd, and the fact that he doesn’t have to travel, is fighting in front of friends and family, and has a good amount of confidence that continues to build behind him. 

Tim Johnson (11-4) is 32 and he’s 3-3 in the UFC. The American is a solid heavyweight fighter who is fairly well-rounded and durable but he doesn’t really excel in any area of the game. He’s also coming off of a knockout loss which is a concern. Johnson is not very pretty to watch, but he is big, tough, and has a solid wrestling background. 

 All signs are pointing to this being a set-up fight from the UFC to help build another Brazilian star, and I see Golm taking this one. The question becomes whether or not Golm can KO Johnson or not. How tough will Johnson be, and will he fold when Golm starts to swarm and look for the finish? 

There are way too many question marks surrounding this fight, and this is the type of fight that I like to avoid from a DFS perspective, but I will have a small amount of exposure to this one. I’ll have Golm in a few GPP lineups, but he won’t be in my top few GPP LU’s. He’ll be in a few multi-entry GPP LU’s, but I also think he’ll be highly owned, as this is the only HW fight on the card. I may have one or two LU’s with Johnson mixed in because if he can impose his wrestling, then it could be a very long night for Golm on his back. 

PICK: Golm, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Golm (7/10)

Johnson (6.5/10)

Snapshot: 

Michel Prazeres (23-2) is 36 and he’s 7-2 in the UFC. He comes in as a -140 favorite with an $8,600 salary. The Brazilian is currently riding a five-fight win streak and is on the verge of contending at 155. He is one of the strongest grapplers in the division and has proven he can take down most of his opponents and control them on the ground. He also has a very good submission game. His striking needs work and his cardio isn’t great, but he’s still a very solid and underrated fighter overall. 

Des Green (20-6) is 28 and he’s 1-1 in the UFC including a notable win over Josh Emmett. He is a +116 underdog with a $7,600 DK salary. The American is the former Titan FC featherweight champion and is a strong grappler with good cardio. His striking is not great but it is improving and he’s also durable. I have judged a few of Des Green’s fights earlier in his career, and he definitely has talent, but I don’t love this fight from a DraftKings perspective. Green has a very good defensive game, and he can often take his opponent out of his game. Green may be able to slow this fight down, and cause Prazeres to push the pace in order to get the fight to the ground, ultimately where he wants it. 

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. I don’t like this matchup from a DFS perspective. Green’s game is not built for DraftKings, and it can actually cause his opponent’s game to look awful from a DFS perspective as well. This reason alone has me running for the hills when it comes to this fight. If you are considering rostering either of these fighters, then I’d only look to possibly roster them in your Cash LU’s, as both have a pretty low ceiling. I’d move on, and look elsewhere for points. 

PICK: Prazeres, decision, unanimous

Cash Game: Prazeres (7/10)

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: 

This line is pretty laughable here! Valentina Shevchenko is close to a -1000 favorite in this one, and she has a $9,600 salary. Yes, you read that correctly; -1000! I have no idea why the UFC put this fight together, but regardless, we need to watch this one and possibly consider Shevchenko in all formats. The real question becomes whether or not she can pay off her $9,600 price tag or not? If this fight goes beyond the 2nd round, then there is no way that Shevchenko pays off her salary. Then the question becomes whether or not it makes sense to punt with Cachoeira, and roster whomever else you want to? Maybe Cachoeira lands a fluky punch, and becomes one of the biggest underdogs to ever win inside the Octagon. Highly unlikely, but you never know. 

Shevchecnko’s Inside the Distance prop is very attractive at -160, and he diversified game gives us many paths to victory, but we need Cachoeira to battle and not fold. If she folds, then Shevchenko won’t have enough time to rack up the necessary points to payoff her salary. If Cachoeira battles and takes a beating, then Shevchenko might be able to earn the necessary points to payoff her $9,600 price tag. This is a tough one to handicap, and I’ll be most likely avoiding this one due to the salaries and unknowns surrounding this fight. I may have a lineup or two where I punt with Cachoeira and roster some of the other big dogs. This would most likely be in Cash and not GPP. 

PICK: Shevchecnko, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Cachoeira (6.5/10) - PUNT

GPP: Shevchenko (7.5/10)

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Dodson vs Munhoz has been cancelled

Snapshot:  

The co-main event of the night is a great matchup! John Dodson has never been finished in his career, and he’s only lost to super stars with the names Johnson (twice), Lineker, and Moraes. He has some seriously quick hands, has great footwork, and is incredibly athletic. He has little to no kicking, and this hurts his game at the top end, but he has a very high Fight IQ, and often finds himself in some of the most entertaining wars that you can imagine. 

The Brazilian, Munhoz, has been on a roll, winning four in a row in the cage (3 by submission), most recently executing an impressive submission win over the highly touted Rob Font. Munhoz brings in a salary of $7,700, which is definitely reasonable, but Dodson has some of the best defense in the division, which may cause Munhoz to have to slow his offensive pressure down, and fight a more tactical fight. This doesn’t bode well for the DK scoring system. 

This should be a 3 round war that is entertaining to watch, but I’m not very confident that it will be a high scoring affair from a DFS perspective. Munhoz is worth the gamble from a punt perspective to some degree, but like I said, Dodson’s elite defense could slow this one down to a point where very few DK points are accumulated. Munhoz also gives us an opportunity to save some cash, and possibly pull out a decision win, and if we are just looking for a win by a dog, then Munhoz isn’t a bad spot to look, but just note, both fighter’s ceilings in this one are pretty low, so I would proceed with caution if rostering in your GPP LU’s. 

PICK: Dodson, Decision, Split

Cash Game:  Dodson (7.5/10)

GPP: Dodson (7/10)

Munhoz (7.5/10)

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Snapshot: 

Here we are….on to the main event of the evening! MMA legend, Lyoto Machida, is coming off a brutal KO loss to Derek Brunson back in October, and now who does the UFC have him taking on? Another heavy-handed KO artist. This is not a good recipe for the 39 year old Brazilian legend. Brunson didn’t land squarely, and he still KO’ed Machida, and from what I’ve seen in Machida’s most recent bouts, his chin and ability to take punches has faded drastically. He’s 39 years old, and is no longer performing at the level that he needs to in order to compete with the elite level of UFC fighters. I wouldn’t necessarily call former Alabama linebacker, Eryk Anders, “elite”, but his heavy-handedness is definitely elite, and this is not a good recipe for the Brazilian. 

Machida should not have taken this fight, and I assume it was only taken due to the fact that it was being held in Brazil and the UFC threw some nice coin at him. I am concerned for his health. He was just completely KO’ed 4 months ago, and his chin is no longer even close to what it used to be. This one will end within the 1st round and it will end violently. Hopefully Machida will hang them up after waking up in the cage staring at the ceiling. 

I like Anders in all formats here, as he’ll get us our 100+ points that we are looking for, and I see very little risk of him losing at this point in his career. Lock N load Anders in all formats. 

PICK: Anders, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Anders (9/10)

GPP: Anders (9.5/10)

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

* With Dodson refusing to take the fight against Munhoz with him being 5 lbs over, the fight was scrapped. This throws a kink into our Cash LU. Vera & Prazeres are both solid alternatives, but keep in mind, Prazeres missed weight also. Prazeres is a beast, and has a style that could be very conducive to scoring very highly in the DK scoring system, but he’s also fighting a very solid defensive fighter in Des Green. Green is a very good wrestler, is quick and athletic, and may have enough to keep his distance from Prazeres and not get taken down. If Green keeps his distance, and keeps the fight standing, then he may be able to test Prazeres’ gas tank, which I don’t have much confidence in, especially after missing weight. Prazeres has a higher ceiling than Vera, but he is more of a risk. Roster accordingly. 

Cash 2 (just added)

*Has a little more risk than Cash 1. Smith gives us some more upside and overall ability to win over Cachoeira, but Means’ inconsistency makes him a downgrade over Anders. Anders also has a 5 round fight, although I don’t suspect it to get to the 4th and 5th rounds. 

GPP 1

GPP 2