MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou

UFC 220 comes strolling…… storming into Boston like a February ‘Noreaster! The first UFC PPV card of the year is a killer card from top to bottom, with great matchmaking and the 2 heaviest weight classes in the organization are both putting their belts on the line, so if you like to see the big boys throw down, then this is definitely the card for you! 

There are at least 6 fights on the card that could realistically go either way, and this is what makes this card so difficult to handicap, but I also think it gives us plenty of opportunity to construct a variety of different lineups that will differentiate you from the rest of the large GPP’s. Even the 2 main events could go either way, especially with the power these 4 fighters have using 4 ounce gloves. 

When a UFC card drops below 12 fights due to fights being scraped (often due to injuries and crappy weight cutting techniques), I often get concerned about the number of lineups that will be duplicated within these large GPP’s. Less than 12 fights can often lead to only a few realistic options for our GPP and Cash lineups, but this card was matched so well that this really isn’t the case. By my count, there are 6 “LIVE DOGS” on this card, and this supplies us with plenty of options to construct our LU’s, and differentiate ourselves enough to not tie with 752 other DFS cats in these larger GPP’s. 

Without further ado, let’s get into the fight by fight preview with a serious DraftKings angle. Enjoy the fights, and lets make it rain! 

Undercard 

Snapshot: 

The first fight of the night should be an entertaining one. Tibau hasn’t fought in over 2 years due to a PED suspension, and I think this will be a factor in this fight. Tibau is 34 years old, but he has a TON of mileage, and is probably more like 54 in fight years. He has a lot of question marks coming into this one, so it’s tough to put much faith in what he can bring to the table. It’s a roll of the dice to bet on or against Tibau, and that’s what makes this little thing we call “gambling” - fun! 

Makhachev trains with Khabib Nurmagomedov, and he has a similar game to his training partner, and this style of MMA game plays very well with the DraftKings scoring format. If Makhachev can get his way, and test Tibau’s cardio, then it could be a very lucrative DFS day for the Russian wrestler. Mak’s aggressive pace, diverse takedowns, and age advantage makes him a very intriguing DK play for me. Part of me says, “be careful of Tibau’s awesome takedown defense (92% over 26 UFC fights), but then there is another part of me that thinks the 2 years off at 34 years old will be a bigger factor than with all think. 

It’s a risky play, but if Makhachev can have his way when it comes to the control of the fight, then I could see him piling up 120+ DK points. His style is about aggression, takedowns, advances, and possibly a submission or two:) This could stylistic align perfectly for a big scoring day in our lineups, but it’s a significant risk, because Tibau is such a question mark at this point in his career. If he can stuff Mak’s takedowns, then it will be an interesting fight that anyone can win, but if the Russian’s aggression starts to become too much to hold off, then good night, and he’ll be on the winning GPP lineup. 

This is an interesting one, and I’d say use your best judgement here, but Makhachev has a very high ceiling, but also a low floor. A big transition from top to bottom, making him a risky play. If you like to gamble, then throw Mak in your LU, but don’t come crying to me when he score 70 points in a boring decision victory. 

PICK: Makhachev, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Makhachev (7.5/10)

GPP: Makhachev (8.5/10)

Snapshot: 

Fight #2 of the night has Matt Bessette making his UFC debut, but he did lose an appearance on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender reality show. He was KO’ed, and was actually planning on retiring after his next fight; instead he got a call as a late replacement to fight close to home in Boston. Bessette is a Bellator and CES vet, and is one of the most experienced fighters who is not in the UFC in the entire country! The guy is good, and he’s got a ton of experience. This could bode well, and a quality that I don’t mind gambling on. Bessette’s chin has been fading of late though, and if he gets clipped early, it could be the end of the fight. His chin scares me. 

Barzola is an aggressive wrestler who likes to push the pace of the fight, and look for grappling exchanges and takedowns wherever he can find them during the course of scrambles that he usually entices. Barzola’s striking is nothing to write home about, but he is improving, and his aggressive wrestling style, combined with his solid chin, make for a solid UFC fighter. 

This is a really interesting fight, and I could see myself rostering both these guys. I like Bassette as a Live Dog, as he has a tremendous amount of experience, and besides the KO loss on the Contender Series, Bassette had won his last 5 fights, without any of them going to a decision. He’s got a legit chance at winning this fight, and possibly doing it within the 1st round. I will definitely have a solid share of Bassette. His experience is something I’m willing to roll the dice on. I’ll also have a few lineups with Barzola as well, as his game is one that has a high ceiling and can easily be on the winning lineup. Great fight to target from a Live Dog perspective, and a high upside perspective!

PICK: Bassette, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Barzola (7.5/10)

GPP: Bassette (8/10)

Barzola (7.5/10)

Snapshot: 

The 3rd fight of the night pits two fighters who are making their UFC debuts after winning their respective fights on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Dancing with the Stars…...I mean...Contender Series. Arce is taking the fight on 3 weeks notice, and is replacing an injured Charles Rosa. 

This is a really close fight, and I could see it going either way. I do think it’s a fight to target for GPP purposes as well. I’ll have exposure to both of these fighters come Saturday night. Ige is a solid wrestler, and definitely has the edge in that department, but if you watch Arce’s recent fights, you’ll notice that he has improved his takedown defense significantly. Arce also has a solid boxing game, and if he can stuff Ige’s takedown attempts, then I could see him racking up a shit-ton of points on the feet. 

I think Ige is a really good risk as well, especially for a discount price of $7,600! If Ige can dictate where this fight takes place (on the mat), then he could easily win a high scoring DFS decision. He’s definitely worth rostering if you are entering multiple GPP lineups in certain events. I’ll have exposure to both fighters, as this fight could go either way, and regardless of the winner - will be a high scoring affair. In the end, Arce is able to keep the fight standing, and ultimately out points Ige on his way to a high scoring decision victory. I don’t hate Ige from a DFS perspective though. 

PICK: Arce, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Arce (6.5/10)

GPP: Arce (7.5/10)

Ige (7/10)

Snapshot: 

Dustin Ortiz is 29 and is 6-5 in the UFC. He’s fought some serious competition during his tenure in the UFC, and he has a style that is calculated and refined. Pantoja is 2-0 in the UFC and has some hype behind him. This is going to be a close fight, and one that is appealing to the eye. Both these guys will be quick, and there will be a lot of scrambles in and out of uniquely athletic positions. 

Ortiz definitely has the experience and well-rounded style to win this fight, but Pantoja has been pretty impressive in his 2 fights in the cage. I don’t think this one ends before the final bell, but I do like to gamble with rostering these Flyweight fighters due to their cardio and their pace. Looking at the odds and salaries, there is one play that sticks out to me here. Ortiz can definitely win this fight, and this donnybrook really should be a coin flip from an odds perspective. With that being said, grabby an upset minded Ortiz at a very reasonable $7,700 price tag makes a lot of sense to me! Will Ortiz finish him? Probably not, but he is a Live Dog, and if we are looking for value in the underdogs on the card, then I’d say Ortiz should be near the top of your list. 

I could also see Pantoja winning this fight too, and that’s what has made this card so amazing so far! This is the 4th fight, and all 4 fights so far could go either way! Great matchmaking by the UFC, and something that is becoming more common with this new ownership group! I will be rostering Ortiz in all formats, and he will most likely be one of my biggest Dog plays within my DFS lineups, but I think he’s worth it. His ceiling might not be incredibly high, but his salary gives us some options when filling our other roster spots, and he’s got an immense amount of experience, and I’m willing to gamble on that. 

PICK: Ortiz, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Ortiz (7/10)

GPP: Ortiz (9/10)

Snapshot: 

The 5th fight is a rematch of a fight that took place on the UFC 218 card on December 2nd of last year. Herb Dean made a stupid appearance in that fight, stopping the bout thinking that Homasi was KO’ed, but in reality it looked like he was trying to get out of a compromising position. The UFC, being the upstanding organization that they are, decided to throw these two right back into the cage a month and a half later, hoping CTE will set in faster so both of these guys will retire, and not remember what happened with Herb’s dumb stoppage. 

Alhassan has electric hands, and I think he’ll ultimately leave the cage with another W. He’s crisper, more technical striker, and he has some heavy hands! This will be the difference in the fight, and I think Alhassan will be a highly targeted fighter in all formats, so we need to take this into consideration when putting together our rosters. Alhassan also has one of the best Inside The Distance (ITD) props on the card at -135. These odds, combined with his reasonable salary of $9k makes him a solid target for me in all formats. He’s a safe play for our Cash LU’s, and his upside is worth rostering in our GPP LU’s also! He will be highly owned, so if you’re looking for a contrarian lineup, you may want to look elsewhere. 

PICK: Alhassan, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Alhassan (9/10)

GPP: Alhassan (8.5/10)

Snapshot: 

Kyle Bochniak is making a homecoming, as he makes his 4th UFC appearance taking on Brandon Davis, who is making his UFC debut. This is a fight that doesn’t have me too excited. I see one possible rosterable fighter, and it isn’t the hometown boy. I don’t think Bochniak is a very good fighter. He’s sound, but he doesn’t do any one thing ‘great’. He’s basic, and will never make a run towards the Top 15 fighters in his division. 

Davis is more athletic, and can strike much more effectively than Bochniak can. Davis has the ability to rack up a lot of points with his striking game, and he’ll even be able to take the fight to the ground if he wants, as Bochniak is not well-versed in stuffing takedowns. Both fighters have pretty poor ITD props, and a high percentage of their fights end in a decision. Not necessarily the type of attributes we are looking for when compiling our rosters, but I do see some value in one of the fighters. 

Davis has the ability to dominate Bochniak, and if he does, it could easily be a 110+ DK points night for him. With his salary being a very reasonable $8,100, he’s a mid-range fighter that has the upside, and a very high floor, and could really help both your Cash and GPP lineups. I like betting against Bochniak here, and Davis is the benefactor of that.  

PICK: Davis, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Davis (7.5/10)

GPP: Davis (8/10)

Main Card

Snapshot: 

Another great matchup in the mid-range here! Thomas Almeida is a slight favorite at -120 with an $8,200 price tag, taking on Boston’s own Rob Font who sports a +100 line with an $8,000 salary. This is an awesome matchup, and is pretty attractive for our DK rosters due to the mid-range pricing of both these fighters. 

Font is a well-rounded fighter who is a product of the famed Sityodtong gym lead by Mark Dellegrotte in Somerville, MA. Font has very good finishing ability, and I expected Font’s ITD prop to be a little lower than the +255 it currently sits at. Font has some nice upside with his $8k price tag, and Almeida hasn’t looked great in his last few fights. If Font doesn’t get caught early by the Brazilian, then I could see him taking over the pace of the fight, and ultimately controlling the center of the cage. 

Almeida is a notoriously slow starter, and usually needs to get clipped a few times before he really inserts himself in the fight. He typically will look to land a heavy counter or two when he’s on the inside, but if Font can clip him early, he may not get a chance to land that counter he needs. 

From a DFS perspective this fight really could go either way, and there is only $200 separating these two on the salary board. I could see Font landing early and winning by TKO, or I could see Almeida weathering the early storm and taking over and landing the more effective shots over the remainder of the fight and winning a decision. Only time will tell, and I will have exposure to both of these guys do to the closeness of this matchup. I’ll save a little salary with Font, and I like the fact that he’s fighting at home, so I’ll most likely have a little bit heftier share of Font than Almeida in this one. 

PICK: Font, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Font (8/10)

Almeida (7.5/10)

Snapshot: 

The 8^th fight of the night is a Light Heavyweight tilt between NY based Gian Villante taking on the 37 year old Brazilian, Francimar Barroso. I won’t spend much time on this fight just for the sole fact that I don’t love it from a DFS perspective, and there are many other better options on this card to target for DFS points. I foresee this being a pretty boring fight all around, as Villante doesn’t have the best gas tank, but will probably still have his way with the Brazilian. Villante’s $8,800 salary will be tough to pay off with his style of fighting, but he also won’t be very highly owned, so if he pulls something quick out of his ass, then he may get to 100 pts, but it’s unlikely. Save your hard earned salary dollars and move on to the next fight. 

PICK: Villante, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: 

Another great matchup on the main card, as Boston’s own, Calvin Kattar, makes his 2^nd appearance in the UFC cage and finds himself as a +165 dog to a very tough competitor in Shane Burgos. The Tiger Shulman striker is a -190 favorite, and has an $8,400 salary attached to him. 

This is an interesting matchup, and I could see either fighter winning this fight. This will most likely go to a decision, as Kattar is a very heady counter-puncher who won’t get himself into much trouble. This also limits his ceiling from a DFS perspective. I think Kattar’s style will see Burgos rushing in with wild shots, as Kattar circles and lands pitter-patter shots while backing up. The winner could easily be determined by who the judges think landed the heavier shots in the fight, and I think that puts the odds for victory slightly in Burgos’ court. The judges won’t give as much credit to Kattar’s punches that land on the retreat, as they do Burgos’ heavier shots that he lands while moving forward. 

With that being said, I don’t love this fight from a GPP perspective, but I can foresee rostering either guy within my Cash lineup. I will most likely will have Kattar in my Cash LU, as he has a pretty high floor, and most likely will not get finished. Kattar’s $7,800 price tag also gives us some freedom to be more creative within our Cash LU also, but I just don’t see the upside of having him in a ton of GPP LU’s. My more conservative GPP LU’s will have Kattar sprinkled in, because I do think he wins this fight in the end , by decision. I am gambling on Kattar’s superior Fight IQ, as you’ve heard me talk about this plenty of times before. I really like rostering guys who have a game plan on going into their fights, and Kattar is one of the best at this. 

PICK: Kattar, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Kattar (8/10)

GPP: Kattar (7/10)

Light Heavyweight Championship Bout

Snapshot: 

Here we go! Onto the 2 big boy fights that everyone wants to see! What a card the UFC put together for it’s first PPV of 2018 in the very historic fight city of Boston. Daniel Cormier is looking to retain the LHW belt, but he’s taking on the very unlikely opponent of Volkan Oezdemir, who has won his first 3 fights in the UFC as an underdog. 

Cormier has the fire to dominate in this fight, and I like the chances of that happening. Volkan is incredibly heavy handed, and has put bigger men away with one punch. Cormier is a very smart fighter though, and he’ll look to use his superior wrestling to outpoint the Swiss fighter, before either locking up a submission, or winning by TKO stoppage in the 2^nd or 3^rd round. 

Volkan has a puncher’s chance though, and I wouldn’t count him out. All he needs to do is land one, and he’s proven to have very heavy, accurate punches that put people to sleep. Can he do this to Cormier and shock the world again? We’ll find out Saturday night around midnight! 

Cormier will be able to avoid the heavy handed Oezdemir in the first 3:00 minutes, and will be able to close the distance, get his hands on the Swiss fighter, and eventually get the fight to the ground where he wants it. The tough part is that every round starts on the feet, and will Cormier be able to avoid the big shots at the beginning of the 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd rounds? I don’t think this one gets into the championship rounds. Volkan could land that ONE shot, and be our new LHW champ, but I am banking on Cormier’s Fight IQ to be too much for Volkan. He hasn’t fought at this level yet, and Cormier will be able to give him a lesson in elite level MMA that he hasn’t ever seen before. 

From a DFS perspective I will have exposure to both fighters. Cormier should win, and with his takedowns and advances, might very easily rack up 100+ points, so he’ll be sprinkled in my GPP rosters, but he will be highly owned. I’ll also have a few contrarian GPP LU’s with Volkan mixed in, as he is the cheapest fighter on the card, and if he does win, it will be quickly, violent, and should get us 100+ points, which would be HUGE for a $7k fighter! 

PICK: Cormier, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game:  Cormier (7.5/10)

GPP: Cormier (8/10)

Oezdemir (7.5/10)

Heavyweight Championship Bout

Snapshot: 

The fight that we’ve all been waiting for! A legitimate UFC heavyweight championship bout that should deliver and match the hype that has been created by the media and the general public! Stipe Miocic is looking to continue his streak of knockout performances inside the Octagon, but this will be the toughest test to date, and that says A LOT once you look at the heavyweights that Miocic has fought in his career. Peep this HW fighters → dos Santos, Overeem, Werdum, Arlovski, Roy Nelson, and Mark Hunt! 4 of the 6 have worn UFC gold around their waste, and when you have spent this much time locked inside a metal cage with this level of talent, you have to be convinced that when Miocic says that he isn’t scared or intimidated by Ngannou, that he’s telling the truth. The level of competition that he has fought in the UFC is incredible, but you can also argue that he has never fought someone with the raw punching power that Ngannou has. When you combine Ngannou’s surreal punching power with the fact that he is a very good athlete, has proven to have some skills on the ground, and has a significant speed and reach (3 inches) advantage over the champ, then I think you have a recipe that could easily see the belt change hands. 

Miocic is attempting to break the UFC record of heavyweight title defenses with a measly three! Yes, if Miocic can find a way to weather the Cameroonian fighter’s stupid power and athleticism and retains the UFC heavyweight belt, then he will be the sole record-holder of UFC HW title defenses at 3. This probably catches a lot of people by surprise, but it really shouldn’t. The sport of MMA is all about the finish, and when you put 2 mammoth men in a cage with 4 ounce gloves on, and give them the opportunity to jump on top of a fallen opponent and continue to reign down incredibly heavy shots with fists and elbows, the odds of a heavyweight defending his championship and retaining the belt becomes less and less with each passing successful title defense. These guys don’t get an 8 count, and aren’t absorbing blows with 12 once mittens on their opponent’s hands. A recipe for KO’s like no other combat sport out there. 

Miocic can arguably be classified as the most successful heavyweight fighter in UFC history after he retained the belt. After taking the belt from Fabricio Werdum (one of the nest HW fighters in MMA history) back in the spring of 2016, he then went on to KO Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos. Combine those 3 KO victories in the UFC cage with KO wins over Andre Arlovski in January of 2016 and another KO victory over Mark Hunt in May of 2015, then you have a guy who has 5 KO victories in a row, and is on one of the best runs a UFC HW has ever seen! 

Miocic is a very good wrestler with dynamite in his hands, but that doesn’t mean anything when Francis Ngannou comes in as the World-Record holder as the most powerful puncher by any man ever in the world! The 31 year old fighter is approaching the perfect age to reach his peak. He is 6-0 in the UFC with 5 knockout wins and 1 submission victory over the past 2 years, but beyond these freakish stats, he has improved tremendously every time he has stepped foot in the Octagon! This is a testament to his elite level athleticism and the fact that he is very coachable, and is willing to sacrifice everything in his life to become champion. This man grew up in western Africa in some of the harshest conditions that you could ever imagine. Granted Ngannou has never been dragged into “deep waters” and tested, but knowing how his upbringing was, I don’t think these deep waters will affect him in any way, shape, or form. His seen much worse things in his life than being KO’ed in the middle of a cage, and his mental fortitude will prevail and become a big benefit for him if the fight does become one that challenges the will of each fighter. 

From a DFS perspective this fight will be very popular! Both fighters will be highly owned, and with the current champ being a +151 underdog and only carrying a $7,300 price tag, you will see most of the general public hopping onto the Miocic train to save salary, and hope that he can survive Ngannou’s crazy punching power. The difficult part with this matchup is that Ngannou loves to fight in close, and this is where Miocic will have to venture in order to land strikes on the Cameroonian fighter who has a 3 inch reach advantage over him. This plays right into Ngannou’s hand. Miocic will eventually be forced to get inside on Ngannou to land the strikes that he’d like to, but to also attempt at taking him to the ground, which I assume is where Miocic will want to take this one. Ngannou lands HEAVY uppercuts that often put his foes to sleep, but he also has stupid power in his short hooks. If Miocic gets into a clinch position with Ngannou, look for the African fighter to land powerful hooks and uppercuts that will eventually put the champ to sleep. 

Avoiding this fight altogether isn’t a bad idea when creating our lineups, because even if you do predict the winner of this fight, you’ll be matching the same prediction of probably close to half the field if Miocic wins, and at least a third of the field if Ngannou wins. If you are only putting together one LU for GPP’s, then it isn’t a bad idea to avoid this one all together due to the huge popularity of both of these fighters. If you are creating 5 or more GPP lineups, then I would definitely have exposure to both of these fighters. I like Ngannou in Cash LU’s, as I think he will KO Miocic if he can keep the fight standing, but if you do roster Miocic and he pulls an Ace out of his sleeve, then you are positioned very well for a big night. 

This is one of the best heavyweight championship fights that we have seen in the last decade or so, and it will live up to the hype! Incredible power will be locked in the Octagon, and someone will be snoring by the end of it. 

PICK: Ngannou, KO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Ngannou (8.5/10)

GPP: Ngannou (8/10): very popular, which limits his value. 

Miocic (8.5/10): I like him more than Ngannou in GPP’s, just due to the salary savings you get with him, but he will be probably the highest owned fighter on the card. 

LIVE DOGS

Optimal Lineups

GPP 1 -- More Popular Lineup

GPP 2 -- Less Popular

GPP - Contrarian

Cash 

* Pivot to Almeida ($8,200)