UFC 212 rolls into Detroit and has a killer card for us to take a stab at. Take a look at my 13 fight preview below with my optimal lineups below! Feel free to follow me on Twitter: @TJ_Scott_MMA, as I’ll be posting any adjustments before fight time with the lineups, and any updates that you’ll need to be aware of! Let’s make it rain! 

 

Undercard 

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

265

Justin Willis

Vs. 

Allen Crowder

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

5

1

Record

9

2

1

0

UFC Record

0

0

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,800 

DK Salary

$7,400 

-224

Vegas Odds

187

33%

% Fights to Dec

9%

180

Inside The Distance Prop

250

Snapshot: 

The first fight of the night pits1 fight UFC vet, Justin Willis, against a UFC newcomer who is getting his chance through a victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. Dustin Willis is a HUGE heavyweight, and has fought as heavy as 290 lbs, so he will be cutting weight to make the 265 lb HW limit. He will have a solid 30 lbs on Crowder, and this will be a factor. Crowder’s cardio is highly questionable, and his camp is not a major, top-tier camp. Willis trains with AKA out of Sacramento, and is one of the best MMA gyms in the world. I put a lot of stock in who these guys train with, and how they are testing their skills on a daily basis. I think this will be the difference in this fight. 

I like Willis in DFS, as he isn’t overly priced, he has a big weight advantage, a big camp advantage, and has the edge in experience as well. These two are not popular fighters, so they probably won’t be very heavily owned, and this is good for us and our GPP lineups. I would definitely have some exposure to Willis in this fight, but maybe have a LU with Crowder in it as well. 

 PICK: Willis, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:  Willis (7/10): I like his chances of victory here, and most likely ends before the final bell. 

GPP: Willis (8/10): He’s got a very good chance of putting up 100+ points with a 1st or 2nd round finish here. 

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Jeremy Kimball

Vs. 

Dominick Reyes

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

15

6

Record

7

0

1

1

UFC Record

1

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$6,800 

DK Salary

$9,400 

359

Vegas Odds

-467

14%

% Fights to Dec

14%

480

Inside The Distance Prop

-164

Snapshot: 

We’ll keep this one short and sweet, just like this fight will go. Reyes is one of the most hyped and highly anticipated LHW’s on the UFC’s roster. His a vicious striker, with KO power in all limbs. He’s tall, limber, and is athletic with his striking as well. He’s a huge favorite here at -467 with a $9,400 DK salary, so you’ll have to pay up to roster him. 

Kimball is not really a Light Heavyweight, and should be fighting at Middleweight, but he has had weight cutting issues most of his career, and has forced him to fight at the 205 limit. Kimball will not be able to stand and bang with Reyes. If he can’t get the fight to the ground quickly, then this one will end fast! 

I like Reyes in DFS here, but it may be tough to payoff his salary if it some how comes past the first round. We also don’t want to see Reyes end this one within the 1st minute, as we’ll want Reyes to rack up a bunch of strikes before finishing him, and this really could happen. I’ll have exposure to Reyes, as he has the biggest advantage over his opponent. 

 PICK: Reyes, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Reyes (9/10): You’ll have to pay up for him, but he’ll be worth it. 

GPP: Reyes (8.5/10): We will get 110+ points here – mark my words. 

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Sabah Homasi

Vs. 

Abdul Razak Alhassan

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

6

Record

7

1

0

1

UFC Record

1

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,200 

DK Salary

$9,000 

196

Vegas Odds

-243

12%

% Fights to Dec

13%

347

Inside The Distance Prop

-135

Snapshot: 

The 3rd fight of the night has another big favorite taking on a little known fighter making their 2nd appearance in the cage. Alhassan is a crazy dangerous kickboxer, and has some incredibly impressive striking techniques, and these are always welcomed in the Octagon. Alhassan had knocked out his first 7 opponents in all under 1:00 minute. He then made his UFC debut, and ended up losing a split decision to Omari Akhmedov, dropping his unblemished record to 7-1. He is a high level striker that can end a fight at any minute, but Alhassan also has some cardio issues, and this type of fault could derail him at any point in his career, so he is a risk. 

Homasi is 29 years old and he is currently 0-1 in the UFC. He is a decent striker with knockout power, but his striking defense is below average, and his chin is not great either, as he has been KO’ed 3 times in his career. He took a short notice fight against Tim Means at UFC 202, and then ended with Homasi losing by TKO in the 2nd round. Homasi is a striker at heart, and he will give Alhassan the matchup that he wants, which is on the feet. There is definitely a chance that Alhassan could get caught by Homasi, but I don’t think it will happen. Alhassan is on another striking level than Homasi, and it will become pretty obvious a few minutes into the fight. If Alhassan’s cardio doesn’t fade before the end of the 2nd round, then I think he has a very good shot at KO’ing Homasi within the first 2 rounds, and putting up a pretty attractive DK score. My numbers have Alhassan as a top 5 play on this card, but you’ll have to pay up to roster him. 

PICK: Alhassan, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:  Alhassan (7.5/10): Very goods odds of victory, and a good chance to break 100+ DK points. 

GPP: Alhassan (8/10): I think he stops Homasi within 2 rounds, and will hopefully land plenty of shots beforehand to rack up those DK points. 

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Amanda Cooper

Vs. 

Angela Magana

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

2

3

Record

11

8

1

2

UFC Record

0

2

2

3

Record Last 5

1

3

$9,100 

DK Salary

$7,100 

-457

Vegas Odds

349

20%

% Fights to Dec

32%

145

Inside The Distance Prop

850

Snapshot: 

I’ll be quick with this one, as this is two low-level fighters who shouldn’t even be fighting in the UFC. Magana hasn’t won a fight in 5 years, and was recently thrown out of her training camp, and has had to find training partners on her own. Cooper is also very underwhelming, and doesn’t get me too excited either. I am going to try like hell to avoid this fight, as it is a tough one to figure out and have much confidence in. I’d rather focus on some fighters that I have some more knowledge of and feel more confident in backing. I may have one lineup with Magana in it just due to the super low salary that she sports, but I’ll be avoiding almost 100% from a DFS perspective. 

PICK: Cooper, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Felice Herrig

Vs. 

Cortney Casey

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

6

Record

7

4

4

1

UFC Record

3

3

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,300 

DK Salary

$7,900 

-143

Vegas Odds

117

74%

% Fights to Dec

36%

420

Inside The Distance Prop

310

Snapshot: 

The 5th fight on the card should be a solid scrap between two UFC women’s division vets, as 33 year old Felice Herrig, who is 4-1 in the UFC, takes on 30 year old Cortney Casey, who is 3-3 in the UFC, but has taken on some seriously tough competition during her UFC career. Herrig has done a great job of recreating herself, and has become a contender in the women’s 115 lb division. Over the past two years she has improved by leaps and bounds, and it has been very evident in the cage. 

Cortney Casey is coming off her biggest win of her career when she won a decision victory over the hyped Justine Kish. Casey is HUGE for the division, and will have a big size advantage over Herrig. Yes, Herrig has improved greatly, and she is a slight favorite in this fight, but I think Casey’s size advantage, ground skills, and her very active work rate on the feet (almost double the work rate of Herrig), are all reasons to highly consider rostering Casey as a slight dog. There aren’t many dogs that I like on this card, so let’s take advantage of the opportunity here, and see if Casey can help us move up the DK ranks. I will also have some exposure to Herrig in GPPs, but my majority play will be Casey with an upset! 

PICK: Casey, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Casey (7/10): We need some dogs to roster, and this isn’t a bad one. 

GPP: Casey (7.5/10): I like her size advantage, the volume in which she throws her strikes, and her last fight she looked great. Sign me up. 

Herrig (6.5/10): I’ll have a roster or two with Herrig mixed in as well. 

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

David Teymur

Vs. 

Drakkar Klose

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

6

1

Record

8

0

3

0

UFC Record

2

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,400 

DK Salary

$7,800 

-180

Vegas Odds

149

43%

% Fights to Dec

50%

193

Inside The Distance Prop

564

Snapshot: 

The 6th fight of the night pits American wrestler/striker, Drakkar Klose, takes on 28 year old Swede, David Teymur in this Lightweight battle between two rising stars in the division. This one is “Klose” (pun intended) from a betting odds perspective, and DK salary perspective. Klose has shown a solid overall game at the UFC level, and he has a solid camp behind him in the MMA Lab down in Arizona, but he doesn’t seem to be lethal enough to finish fights at this level just yet, and this should have us shying away from him from a DK perspective. 

I like Teymur much better from a DK perspective, as he has a high work rate and a more technical striker than Klose, and I think this is the difference in this one. Klose isn’t ready to be considered a “title contender”, but he is improving every time he steps in the cage. Teymur’s striking is the difference in this one, but it’s not a top fight for me to target, but I will have exposure to Teymur in GPP’s, as we need to find some mid-tier talent to roster. 

PICK: Teymur, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: Teymur (7/10): Need to find some mid-tier fighters to roster, and this may be our best bet with Teymur. 

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Alex Oliveira

Vs. 

Yancy Medeiros

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

4

Record

14

4

7

2

UFC Record

5

4

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,900 

DK Salary

$7,300 

-234

Vegas Odds

190

19%

% Fights to Dec

22%

125

Inside The Distance Prop

375

Snapshot: 

The next fight on tap is a welterweight battle that I think will be the fight of the night on this Detroit card. Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira comes into this fight riding high, as he holds a 7-2 UFC record and is coming off a big KO win over Ryan LaFlare is last time out. The Brazilian has shown immense improvement over the last few years, as his striking has started to become some of the most feared in the division. Cowboy is very big for the division, incredibly strong, is athletic, and has some scary sick striking that is backed up by his heavy right hand. A great combination of attributes here. His Fight IQ used to concern me, but his last few times out he has looked a lot better in that area than earlier in his UFC career. 

Yancy Medeiros is a 30 year old Hawaiian who is 5-4 in the UFC, and has spent most of his time in the UFC down in the LW division. Even at LW Medeiros was susceptible to heavy striking, and this will definitely be an issue for him in this fight with the incredibly heavy-handed Brazilian striker. Yancy has a chance of locking up a submission, as Oliveira does leave some openings, but I think his improved Fight IQ has closed many of these gaps that used to be present in his game. 

Both of these guys bring it every time they step into the cage, so there is guaranteed to be some serious fireworks going off in this one, and I see the lethal striking Brazilian just being too much for Medeiros, and eventually TKO’ing him in the 1st or 2nd round. I like Cowboy in all formats, as his upside is high, and salary isn’t too bad. 

PICK: Oliveira, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Oliveira (8.5/10): I like his chances of winning, and doing it in very effective fashion. 

GPP: Oliveira (9/10): He’ll secure the KO and should get us 100+ DK points. 

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Charles Oliveira

Vs. 

Paul Felder

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

22

7

Record

14

3

10

7

UFC Record

6

3

2

3

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,700 

DK Salary

$8,500 

114

Vegas Odds

-139

10%

% Fights to Dec

35%

150

Inside The Distance Prop

135

Snapshot: 

Ok, if the prior fight doesn’t win “Fight of the Night”, then this one is sure to be the winner of that award, as Charles Oliveira takes on Paul Felder in a highly anticipated Lightweight matchup. Felder burst onto the scene by KO’ing Danny Castillo with a crazy spinning backfist. From there he hit a bit of a skid, going 2-3, but he’s turned it around, and has gone 4-1 in his last 5 with big wins over Alex Ricci and Stevie Ray. Felder is a brutal striker with some seriously heavy hands, but his ground game can be an issue for him, and his wrestling hasn’t been tested to level in which I’d have confidence saying that he can definitely keep this fight standing. This concerns me, as Oliveira has one of the best submission games in the division, and underrated wrestling to go with it. 

Oliveira has had his ups and downs, and has found himself in the 155 pound division after 5 years fighting at 145, but a few missed weight cuts, and now he finds himself at 155. This isn’t a bad thing, as I think his body has reacted differently to the weight cuts then when he was fighting at 145. Oliveira can look like one of the best fighters on the planet during one fight, and then look completely overmatched in another fight. He is a tough one to read, but I think he’s a fighter to target for our rosters, as we need to have at least a few underdogs on our roster to put it together, and I think he gives us one of the best chances at victory as a dog on this card. Roster him as you feel fit, but I think he eventually gets this fight to the ground, and chokes out Felder for a solid upset victory! I’m going against the grain here, but he’s worth the risk. 

PICK: Oliveira, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Oliveira (8.5/10): Not 100% sure he’ll win, but he’s a nice salary saver with some serious upside. 

GPP: Oliveira (9/10): We need to find our Live Dogs, and I think we got one here! 

 

Main Card

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Tecia Torres

Vs. 

Michelle Waterson

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

1

Record

14

5

5

1

UFC Record

2

1

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,600 

DK Salary

$7,600 

-234

Vegas Odds

189

90%

% Fights to Dec

16%

550

Inside The Distance Prop

425

 

Snapshot: 

The first fight of the main card is a great women’s fight for us to take in. Tecia Torres is 28 years old, and she is 5-1 in the UFC, and she’s taking on Jackson-Wink fighter, Michelle Waterson, who is 31 years old and is 2-1 in the UFC. 

Tecia Torres is a very well-rounded fighter who has a very high pace to her offensive attack. She has improved tremendously over the past 3 years, and its been fun to watch her evolution. Torres is an explosive, quick striker who uses he aggression to her advantage. Torres striking output is about twice the rate of Waterson, and this could be a big advantage for her in this contest. 

This is an interesting fight to consider for DraftKings, as I like Waterson to a degree, but then once I look at things a little deeper, I really like Torres too. After sleeping on this one, I’m pretty confident in where I stand, as I think Torres will just be too much for Waterson to handle. I believe that Torres will significantly out strike Waterson, and will eventually win a decision victory. Torres doesn’t finish many of her opponents, as 8 of her 9 wins have come by way of decision, but this doesn’t deter me, as her output makes it an attractive DFS play. 

I will have exposure to both fighters, as Waterson will be low owned, and if she does win, it will probably be a high scoring bout for her, as she’ll most likely stop Torres before the last bell. Ultimately, I think Torres is on too much of a roll right now, and is one of the best fighters in her division, and that’s why the betting lines having continued to move in Torres favor as the fight gets closer. I think Torres has the potential to be one of the highest scorers on the card, especially if she mixes in some takedowns and ground work with her heavy volumed offensive attack. 

PICK: Torres, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: Torres (9/10): She has a great chance of victory, her salary is reasonable, and I think she may have the highest upside on the card. 

GPP: Torres (9/10): See above!

Waterson (7/10): I’ll have some exposure to Waterson too, as we’ll need to find a live dog in this bunch, and Waterson is one of them, but I really fell that Torres will piece up Waterson, and this won’t be a very close fight, but DFS is a different animal, you just can’t sit back and not take any Live Dogs. There aren’t many on this card, but Waterson lines up pretty good, so you should consider at least a few rosters with Waterson included (if making 10+ lineups).  

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Eddie Alvarez

Vs. 

Justin Gaethje

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

28

5

Record

18

0

3

2

UFC Record

1

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,500 

DK Salary

$8,700 

150

Vegas Odds

-182

21%

% Fights to Dec

11%

375

Inside The Distance Prop

117

Snapshot: 

Ok, remember when I said that both Oliveira fights have a chance to be “Fight of the Night”? I was just kidding. This is the fight of the night! Any fight that Justin Gaethje is in has a better than 50% chance of winning the FotN bonus that the UFC pays out each event. The kid is the most exciting fighter in MMA right now, and he has just started making a name for himself at the highest level of the sport, but he has the potential to be a superstar within the next 2 years!

This is a great all-around MMA fight, as it pits an incredibly experienced veteran of the sport in Eddie Alvarez against a young and up and coming brawler that MMA fans have not seen the likes of since…….I don’t know, maybe ever! Alvarez had a very poor performance when he was KO’ed by Connor McGregor, and then he didn’t look great against Dustin Poirier when the fight ended in a no contest due to an illegal knee to the head of a grounded opponent. I think he was going to lose the Poirier fight too if it had continued. This tells me that Eddie Alvarez is on the decline, and it isn’t surprising. He’s 33 years old with 33 professional MMA fights under his belt, and many of those at the highest level of the sport. Those 33 professional MMA fights create much more wear on a fighter than 33 professional fights on the Brazilian regional MMA cricuit. 

If Alvarez has any chance at all in beating Gaethje, then he’ll have to do one thing for sure: avoid brawling with Gaethje! Alvarez will surely get KO’ed if he tries to stand and bang with Gaethje in the pocket. Alvarez needs to do one of two things offensively to have a shot at winning; 1) he either needs to circle away from Gaethje constantly, and essentially run and keep his distance, or (2) he can try and use his wrestling advantage and get the fight to the ground where he could hope to lock up a submission. Both of these will be difficult to accomplish, as Alvarez will eventually have to strike with Gaethje, as every round starts on the feet, right? 

Gaethje is a beast who stocks down his opponents until he has them backed against the cage, or in a position where they can do nothing but engage with him and strike. This is a bade recipe, as Gaethje has one of the best chins in the game right now, and some of the most aggressive, heavy striking that you’ll see in the sport. He is a blast to watch! He will eventually get KO’ed, as his striking defense is predicated on taking shots to land shots, but until he does get KO’ed for the first time, let’s enjoy the show and see what he does. 

Gaethje will be able to slow down Alvarez if he tries to run by landing heavy legkicks, which Gaethje is known for, and battering his opponent’s legs, making it difficult for him to stay agile in the cage. Once the legs start to fade, then Gaethje will be able to corner his foe, and eventually land that fight-ending punch. 

From a DFS perspective I love Gaethje! He only has one UFC fight against Michael Johnson, which may go down as one of the best UFC fights of all time, but in that fight he put out some seriously scaring striking stats. Take a look at this: Gaethje landed 10.69 Significant Striker per minute against Johnson, but also absorbed 9.29 Significant Strike per Minute! Those are insane numbers! Normally, if you are averaging over 4.0 SLPM in a fight you are doing very well. 10.69 is just ridiculous, and this all plays in favorably to the DraftKings scoring system. I will have heavy exposure to Gaethje, but I may have a lineup or two with Alvarez in it, because Gaethje does have to get KO’ed at some point, and Alvarez could also win a boring decision if he runs for 2+ rounds. 

PICK: Gaethje, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Gaethje (8.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and he has a high floor and high ceiling, all great attributes for both Cash and GPP’s. 

GPP: Gaethje (9.5/10): See above. He’ll rack em up! 

Alvarez (6.5/10: Good contrarian play. 

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Henry Cejudo

Vs. 

Sergio Pettis

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

2

Record

16

2

5

2

UFC Record

7

2

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,200 

DK Salary

$7,000 

-273

Vegas Odds

211

54%

% Fights to Dec

56%

375

Inside The Distance Prop

550

Snapshot:  

Henry Cejudo is an almost 3/1 favorite in this fight against a very talented Sergip Pettis. Cejudo is a former Olympic Gold medalist who has shifted over to MMA full time, and has continued to progress his game in the few years that he has been focusing solely on MMA. Cejudo last to Demetrius Johnson in a title match, but since then has looked very much improved on the feet. His striking has morphed into a more selective, aggressive approach, and this has paid dividends for him. His Fight IQ continues to improve, and you all know how much I value Fight IQ! He hasn’t been able to overwhelm his opponents with his wrestling, but that’s not a problem, as his striking, and overall athleticsm has carried him so far. 

There are different levels to this sport, and I think Cejudo realized this during his fight with Mighty Mouse, but I also think that Cejudo is on another level than Sergio Pettis. Yes, Pettis has looked very good as of late, but he has a questionable chin, and I just don’t think he has the skills to beat a top-tier fighter in the Flyweight division like Henry Cejudo. 

From a DFS perspective this is a difficult one to target, as I don’t think this one will be terribly high scoring, and I think it will ultimately go to the judge’s scorecards. Cejudo may be able to finish Pettis, but if he doesn’t do it in the first round, then he’ll have a very difficult time paying off his $9,200 price tag. This concerns me, and will keep me from having much exposure to Cejudo in GPP’s (Cash is another story). Pettis isn’t a bad “punt” in your lineups, as he does have an outside shot at pulling off an upset here, and he’ll free up a bunch of cap space for you! Feel free to target Pettis as a punt if you’d like. Ultimately, I think Cejudo wins a decision victory here, and racks up 85 points. Not great for the price. 

PICK: Cejudo, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Cejudo (8/10): I like his chances of victory, but his ceiling is lower than we’d like to see for our GPP rosters. 

GPP: Pettis (6.5/10): This is a punt play for your GPP lineups in order to free up some cash. 

 

Fight #:

12

3 Rounds

Weight:

265

Alistair Overeem

Vs. 

Francis Ngannou

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

43

15

Record

10

1

8

4

UFC Record

5

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,100 

DK Salary

$9,100 

203

Vegas Odds

-252

14%

% Fights to Dec

9%

450

Inside The Distance Prop

-172

Snapshot: 

You like fireworks? You like big boys who like to throw down? You like people unconscious in the middle of a caged combat area? Well, then this fight is right up your alley! Francis Ngannou is a -252 favorite with a $9,100 DK salary, taking on Dutch kickboxer, Alistair Overeem who is a +203 with a $7,100 price tag. Ngannou has only been training MMA for 4 years, and he is an absolute beast in the cage, and has the potential to be a future UFC champion. Matter of fact, I’ll say within 18 months that Ngannou WILL BE the UFC HW champ! 

Overeem is one of the most experienced HW MMA fighters to eve fight in the division. He is a well-rounded fighter who has some of the best striking in the HW division, and can knock anyone out at any point in the fight. He has also been training at Jackson-Wink MMA, and these guys often have a very smart game plan that they bring to the table for their fighters to emply, and I think this could be a factor in this fight, and I’ll tell you why in a minute. 

Overeem will need to keep this one out of the middle distance (the pocket). He’ll either want to kick from distance and circle away, or he’ll want to get inside on Ngannou and grab a Thai clinch if possible. Grabbing a clinch will feel like the natural, correct thing to do for Overeem, but Ngannou throws a lot of heavy uppercuts, and one of the few effective strikes you can throw if you are stuck in someone’s Thai clinch is an uppercut, and this could be an issue for Overeem if he gets hit with a few uppercuts while in the clinch. This will take away one of the few options that Overeem has to succeed. In order to give himself the best shot, I think Overeem needs to shoot in, and take Ngannou down and work his ground game. If he tries to stand bang with Ngannou, then he will go to sleep. 

Overeem has had so many fights in his career, and has been KO’ed a dozen times. His chin has left him long ago, but since he has joined Jackson-Wink MMA he has become a much smarter fighter, and has used his head more effectively than his size and striking skills. This could allow him to pester Ngannou, and pull off an upset, as a high Fight IQ combined with the experience and physical gifts that Overeem has is a scary thing to think about. 

Ultimately, I think Ngannou eventually corners the Dutch kickboxer, and lands a heavy shot that ends Overeem’s night. I just don’t think Overeem can avoid a heavy shot from Ngannou for 15 minutes, and he eventually will go to sleep, but if Overeem can get this one to the ground, then who knows what will happen. I like Ngannou by KO in the 1st or 2nd, and this is great, but will Ngannou pay off his $9,100 price tag? If he wins in the 1st round; yes. 2nd round; probably not, 3rd round; no. I like Ngganou, but Overeem isn’t a bad punt play in GPP’s. 

PICK: Ngannou, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Ngannou (8/10): He’s a beast, but his floor is lower than I’d like to see for my Cash lineups, but I think his chin holds up and he KO’s Overeem. 

GPP: Ngannou (8.5/10): I like his chances to get a 1st round KO, but Overeem has showed recently that he can run in a fight, and make it really boring. 

Overeem (7/10): This would be a punt play, as I think he loses, but he does have an outside shot of pulling off a victory. 

 

Fight #:

13

5 Rounds

Weight:

145

Max Holloway

Vs. 

Jose Aldo

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

18

3

Record

26

3

14

3

UFC Record

8

2

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,300 

DK Salary

$6,900 

-299

Vegas Odds

239

48%

% Fights to Dec

34%

-140

Inside The Distance Prop

897

Snapshot: 

The main event of the evening is another great fight, making this a pretty killer card from top to bottom! A rematch, Max Holloway takes on Jose Aldo who is taking the fight on a month’s notice after Frankie Edgar was forced to pull out due to injury. This is a great fight, and one that is certainly worthy of a rematch. Aldo ended up losing to Holloway back at UFC 202. Aldo will go down as one of the best featherweights of all time, but his time has come and I think his game has started to show some signs of decline. His been KO’ed in 2 of his last 3 fights, and his once granite chin has now shown some signs of wear. 

Holloway has won 11 fights in a row, and has proven to be an incredibly talented fighter with heart and desire to be champ. His striking is awesome. His ground game is elite. And overall he has the mental makeup to overcome adverse situations, and come out on top.

Holloway is the younger fighter with less mileage on him, and he just recently beat Aldo. Holloway is nearing his peak, while Aldo is older and on the decline, so I don’t see much changing, in terms of results, from the first fight. I like Holloway in this 5 round affair a lot, but I do see reason to roster Aldo, as his price tag at $6,900 is stupidly low for a world-renowned fighter like Aldo, so not a bad person to consider as a Punt for your GPP lineups. I don’t think Aldo has what it takes to beat Holloway any more, but he still has elite level skills that can end a fight at any time, but this is Holloway’s time, and he’ll continue to keep that belt around his waist. If Also has any chance of winning he’ll need to land his patented heavy leg kicks to stop Holloway from advancing, but he hasn’t sustained his kicking attacks in his fights recently, and that could be a big deal. Holloway will continue to move forward, and will eventually end this fight within the first 3 rounds. 

PICK: Holloway, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game:  Holloway (9/10): You’ll have to pay up for him, but he has a high floor. Great pick if you can squeeze him in.  

GPP: Holloway (8.5/10): Make some room, as he has 5 rounds to show his skills, and has a very high floor and ceiling.  

Aldo (7/10): This would be a punt play, as I think he loses, but he does have an outside shot of pulling off a victory.

 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Holloway

$9,300

2

Aldo

$6,900

3

Casey

$7,900

4

C. Oliveira

$7,700

5

Reyes

$9,400

6

Gaethje

$8,700

GPP 1 

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Casey

$7,900

2

C. Oliveira

$7,700

3

Holloway

$9,300

4

Ngannou

$9,100

5

*Gaethje

$8,700

6

Pettis

$7,000

*You can also pivot to Justin Willis for the 1st rnd KO opportunity, or pivot to Tecia Torres and possible have serious upside with a high scoring decision win. Your call. These two would also be lesser owned than Gaethje as well.