At first glance many would say this is a pretty gross fight card, but when you peel back the onion and look at the matchups, there are definitely some intriguing fights that we should be paying attention to. There are so many fighters on this card making their UFC debuts that it is tough to have a tremendous amount of confidence in your lineups, but with that being said, this card is also very evenly matched, making it very difficult to handicap. There are many different angles you can take from a roster formulation perspective, and I encourage you to use my rankings as a way to put together multiple lineup options. This is a card where you should have multiple options to cover your bases, so be free, and compile your rosters with a good amount of variance.

 

Undercard

 

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

155 lbs

Thibault Gouti

Vs.

Andrew Holbrook

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

3

Record

12

2

0

3

UFC Record

2

2

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,400

DK Salary

$8,800

143

Vegas Odds

-172

14%

% Fights to Dec

14%

255

Inside The Distance Prop

163

 

Snapshot:

The first fight of the night pits Andrew Holbrook and his $8,800 salary against Thibault Gouti and his $7,400 salary. Gouti has an 0-3 record in the UFC with 3 stoppage loses to middle of the road competition, while Holbrook is entering his 5th fight in the UFC, carrying a 2-2 record. Holbrook’s 2 wins in the Octagon came as an underdog; the first win over Ramsey Nijem (+140), while the 2nd win proved to be a MONSTER upset over Jake Matthews (+450) in Australia in November of last year. This fight could easily be a “loser go home” matchup, as Gouti has 3 consecutive losses, and Holbrook’s 2-2 record has a few nice upsets mixed in, but his style in the cage isn’t one to prevent you from changing the channel.

Gouti has a pretty heavy right hand, and is a solid striker, but his ground game has proven to be less than desirable. Holbrook on the other hand has a pretty solid ground game that is well balanced between the grittiness of a wrestler, and the tactical skills of a BJJ master. I’d be an awful handicapper if I didn’t mention how weak Holbrook’s chin is. He got KO’ed by Joaquim Silva in July of 2016, and by Gregor Gillespie back in April of this year. If Gouti puts Holbrook to sleep on Saturday, then there is a good shot that Holbrook will be the CTE poster child of UFC 2017.

From a DFS perspective this one doesn’t really get my fire ignited. I mean, it’s a guy who’s 0-3 in the UFC taking on a guy who is super chinny, has a pretty good ground game, and is pretty weak on the feet. There’s a lot of question marks in this one, but I foresee Holbrook getting this one to the ground, and taking over from there - locking up a submission in the 2nd round. Play at your own risk though, as Holbrook’s chin is as solid as Play-Doh.

PICK: Holbrook, Sub, 2nd                                                  

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Holbrook (6/10): His upside isn’t bad as he has a good chance to end the fight soon after getting it to the ground. His chin is scary, and his upside is pretty limited.

Gouti (7/10): I’ll have some exposure to Gouti in GPP’s as well, just because of Holbrook’s chin.

 

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

205 lbs

Bojan Mihajlovic

Vs.

Abdul-Kerim Edilov

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

5

Record

16

4

0

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$6,700

DK Salary

$9,500

423

Vegas Odds

-585

40%

% Fights to Dec

10%

798

Inside The Distance Prop

-426

 

Snapshot:

Fight number 2 is one that you’ll want to make sure you tune in for. Not because of the UFC vet,  Bojan Mihajlovic, but because of the UFC rookie, Abdul-Kerim Edilov. Edilov is one of the most hyped non-UFC 205 lb fighter in the world, as he is riding a 10 fight win streak against some pretty solid talent. Edilov is also the cousin of controversial Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, making this one even more interesting.

Bojan is a huge dog, currently sitting at +510 against Edilov’s -720! The crazy part is the Edilov hasn’t fought in 2 years due to a USADA violation, so many would say he’s got a good chance to have some ring rust, and could be defeated by a more active fighter. Enter Bojan Mihajlovic. Quite possibly the worst fighter on the current UFC roster, regardless of weight class. No joke…..this guy is cannon fodder, and is being placed in front of Edilov like a sacrificial lamb. Bojan will be cut from the UFC roster after this one, and Edilov will live up to the hype as one of the top 205ers in the world who’s not on the UFC roster. This is a much needed addition to the Light Heavyweight division that has seen a serious reduction in talent since it’s hayday with Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz, Forrest Griffin, and Rampage Jackson. Edilov will not fill the gap that those 4 Hall of Famers created, but he’s definitely a talented fighter who could find a path to a belt at some point in the future. 

Edilov’s $9,500 salary is pretty steep, but you can almost guarantee a 100+ point performance here, and that’s better than a 10x return on his salary, and we like those returns on our roster! Make sure you have some exposure to Edilov in all formats, but you’ll have to roster some serious dogs in order to make it work.

PICK: Edilov, KO, 1st                                               

Cash Game: Edilov (8/10): Guaranteed win, and pretty much a guaranteed 100+ point night for the UFC rookie, but his high price tag limits his rosterability to some degree.

GPP: Edilov (8.5/10): I like him in GPP’s as well, but his price tag detracts from his appeal. His price tag will keep his ownership level down in GPP’s, and his ceiling is very high, especially with his opponent being a bag of trash that has no chin.

 

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

145 lbs

Mike Santiago

Vs.

Zabit Magomedsharipov

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

9

Record

12

1

0

0

UFC Record

0

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$6,900

DK Salary

$9,300

317

Vegas Odds

-408

18%

% Fights to Dec

15%

475

Inside The Distance Prop

-160

Snapshot:

FIght number 3 is an interesting one, as Mike Santiago is taking this fight on 5 days notice, which may be a record of some sort,  as he just fought on August 22nd in front of Dana White at his Tuesday Night Contender Series, winning via KO 2:59 into the 1st round. He barely was touched, and in turn, is able to turn it around in under 2 weeks in order to make his official promotional debut. On top of his recent victory in front of Dana White, he’s also rattled of 10 straight wins while fighting in solid regional promotions XFO, Ring of Combat, and most recently, RFA. You couldn’t ask for anything more if you’re Mike Santiago, right? You have some serious momentum, and haven’t lost since January of 2014. Only one of your recent 10 straight wins wasn’t a stoppage. And you just had a hell of a performance in front of the most powerful man in the sport of MMA.

Well, not so fast. Santiago’s opponent, Zabit Magomedsharipov (I’ll call him ZM moving forward) is an elite prospect in the 145 lb division. ZM is 26 years old and currently has a 12-1 record with 8 straight wins. He fights out of New Jersey under Mark Henry, one of the best MMA coaches in the game right now, and also has the privilege of training with the likes of Frankie Edgar, Edson Barbosa, and a deep roster of studs that call Henry “Coach”. ZM is extremely tall for the Featherweight division at 6’2”. He has powerful striking, a solid ground game, and also has excellent takedown defense.

Santiago is battle-tested and has a proven track record, but he is taking on a specimen, and the only thing more dangerous than taking on a “Specimen” is fighting a specimen who trains with a great coach and stud teammates, and this is exactly what Santiago is walking into on Saturday. My projections/rankings have Magomed and Edilov as 2 of the top 4 studs on this card, but it will be tough to roster both of them in the same lineup due to their top end salaries. Do what you can, but get at least one of these guys in basically every roster you have.

PICK: Magomedsharipov, TKO, 2nd                    

Cash Game: Magomed (9/10): Love is odds of winning, and with his high ceiling, I’ll find some Cash games to get him in.

GPP: Magomed (8/10): His salary of $9,300 makes him tough to roster with the likes of Edilov, but his ceiling is incredibly high with very limited risk of losing this fight.

                                                           

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

205 lbs

Francimar Barroso

Vs.

Aleksandar Rakic

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

5

Record

8

1

4

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,700

DK Salary

$8,500

103

Vegas Odds

-127

25%

% Fights to Dec

0%

237

Inside The Distance Prop

141

 

Snapshot:

This one should be a close one. 37 year old Francimar Barroso is 4-2-1 in the UFC, and comes into the fight as a slight underdog at +103, and has a salary of $7,700. Barroso has pretty solid wrestling that is often underrated, and he’ll need to utilize it in this matchup against debuting UFC fighter, Aleksander Rakic. Rakic has an 8-1 pro MMA record, but this is his first fight under the UFC banner, and we all know how inconsistent debuting fighters can be, often succumbing to the pressure that is placed on them when stepping into the cage for the first time while on TV around the world. Rakic is 12 years younger than his Brazilian counterpart, and has 15 less fights than Barroso. Will youth prevail, or will experience be the difference? This is what makes this fight so intriguing; there are just so many juxtapositions that could cause this fight to really go in any direction, both from a stylistic perspective, and from an outcome (win/loss) perspective.

Vegas has this one basically as a pick ‘em, but DraftKings isn’t jiving with the Vegas odds, as Rakic has an $8,500 price tag, and Barroso only comes in with a $7,700 salary. I think these salaries should both be right at about $8,100, so take that for what it’s worth. Barroso has a pretty low output when it comes to his striking game, and we all know that this isn’t ideal when looking at possible point ceilings for each fighter within DraftKings. Rakic may come out and outpoint Barroso on the feet, and he’ll need to do this through utilizing his speed and power advantage that he’ll have over Barroso, but if he gets overzealous and gases early, then this could be anyone’s fight. I have confidence in Rakic being able to outstrike Barroso, and winning a less than exciting decision over the Brazilian. Not loving this one from a DFS perspective, but if you’re looking for a live dog to roster, then you may want to consider Barroso, even though his output is pretty low. We need to roster those live dogs in GPP’s, because only 6 victories will get us to the top of the heap

PICK: Rakic, Dec, Unan

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Rakic (5.5/10): ehhh…..

Barroso (7/10): Great opportunity to save some cap space, and quite possibly could pull of the slight upset. Take a look at the Vegas odds and compare versus their salaries.

 

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Rustam Khabilov

Vs.

Desmond Green

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

3

Record

20

5

7

2

UFC Record

1

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-317

Vegas Odds

250

58%

% Fights to Dec

68%

366

Inside The Distance Prop

900

 

Snapshot:

Khabilov is 7-2 in the UFC and currently riding a 4 fight win streak, while his opponent, Des Green is 27 years old and is currently 1-0 in the UFC. Green is a wrestling-based fighter out of the Buffalo area, and has gradually been improving since I saw him fight early on in his pro career.I’m not going to spend much time on this analysis, as I will not have any exposure to this one, as I think it goes to the ground, and doesn’t make for very much upside. Khabilov allows 58% of his fights to go to a decision, while Green allows 68% of his fights to go to a decision! Both of these figures are very high! As expected, their inside the distance props are not  very impressive. I will have a little bit of exposure on Green in a GPP or two, as I think this line, and his salary are off just a bit. I thought Green would be around +175 dog, and have a salary of somewhere around $7,600, so we are getting value from both perspectives here.

PICK: Khabilov, Dec, Split

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Green (6/10): As mentioned in the write-up, I think Green has an outside chance at victory here, and there aren’t many “Live Dogs” on this card, and Green is one of those outside chance live dogs. One thing I know for sure, this will not be a terribly high scoring affair, with little striking.

 

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Michel Prazeres

Vs.

Mads Burnell

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

22

2

Record

8

1

6

2

UFC Record

0

0

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,400

DK Salary

$6,800

-364

Vegas Odds

283

58%

% Fights to Dec

33%

146

Inside The Distance Prop

755

 

Snapshot:

34 year old Michel Prazeres comes into this fight with the 2nd highest price tag at $9,400, while his opponent, Mads Brunell is 23 years old and brings a salary of $6,800 to the table in his UFC debut. This card is a tough one to handicap, as there are many fighters making their UFC debut, and there isn’t much tape on them out there.

I really like Prazeres’ chances on this one, and he is one of my favorite all format plays on this card. I also think he’ll have lower ownership than the 2 other high salaried fighters on the card (Edilov & ZM). Pazeres is 6-2 in the UFC, and he’s taking on an 8-1 fighter who has not fought very tough competition at all. This will by far be the biggest challenge of Burnell’s young career, and I don’t think he has enough skills to get this fight to the ground, most likely where he wants it. Look for Pazeres to keep this fight where he wants, mix in his striking with some takedowns, and most likely wins by decision with over 100 DK points. I like him in all formats, but you’ll have to pay for him.

PICK: Pazeres, Decision, Unanimous     

Cash Game: Pazeres (8/10): I think he’s got an easy foe in front of him, and he’s surely going to lock up a victory here, but his salary is another tough one to swallow.

GPP: Pazeres (7.5/10): Pazeres is a beast of a man, and equally has a chance to score 100+ in a decision victory or in a stoppage victory. I’ll have my fair share of Pazeres.

 

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

(155 lb) Lightweight

Mairbek Taisumov

Vs.

Felipe Silva

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

24

5

Record

8

0

5

1

UFC Record

1

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-260

Vegas Odds

203

14%

% Fights to Dec

13%

138

Inside The Distance Prop

321

 

Snapshot:

29 year old Mairbek Taisumov brings his 5-1 UFC record into the 7th fight of the night against Felipe SIlva who currently stands at 1-0. Taisumov has 4 straight victories by KO, and enters this fight as a -260 favorite with a salary of $9,200. The Russian has had Visa issues recently, and this has resulted in over a year off from the sport, so ring rust could be a factor, but I think his striking is at a high enough level that he’ll be able to easily overcome the down time, and win this one in convincing fashion.

Silva is 33 years old from Brazil, and is 1-0 in the UFC with a KO over Shane Campbell. Silva has solid clinch work, and has numerous finishes to his name, but he’s never fought someone close to the caliber of Taisumov. This is a card full of Russian tough guys, and I like a lot of them, but we need to pick and choose our spots. My numbers have Taisumov as one of the highest ranked fighters on the card, and I’ll have exposure to him in all formats.

PICK:Taisumov, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Taisumov (7.5/10): I think his experience plays a big factor and helps him snatch this victory from the hands of defeat.

GPP: Taisumov (8/10): I like his chances of scoring well here. I’ll have some pretty good exposure to him in my GPP lineups.

 

Main Card

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

170 lb

Darren Till

Vs.

Bojan Velickovic

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

0

Record

15

4

2

0

UFC Record

2

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,900

DK Salary

$7,300

-199

Vegas Odds

163

21%

% Fights to Dec

37%

185

Inside The Distance Prop

493

 

Snapshot:

The 8th fight of the night is one that initially I thought I’d like in DK, but the more I watch film, and the more I look at the numbers, the more I’m going to be fading this fight. Till is a well-rounded fighter with both striking and grappling skills, but Till is more of a counter striker who has a slower pace than we’d like to see in our DK lineups. On the other hand, there is no way that I’d be investing in Bojan Velickovic after seeing him fight for a few years.

Could Till end this one inside the distance and rack up 85+ points, sure, but history tells me he’ll be more cautious, and will look to out-point Bojan via counter-striking, and well know that this doesn’t make for a very high scoring affair. We like guys who push forward, throw lots of volume, and have a chance of ending a fight at any time. This isn’t the description I’d place on either of these fighters, but I will have some exposure to Till in GPP’s, and maybe a very small exposure to him in Cash.

PICK: Till, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Till (6/10): Not overly thrilled with Till on my Cash lineups, but I’ll have a few with him in it.

GPP: Till (6.5/10): Outside chance he ends this one inside the distance, and surprises all of us. I think he scores 80-85 points in a decision victory though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

(170 lb) Welterweight

Leon Edwards

Vs.

Bryan Barberena

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

2

Record

13

4

5

2

UFC Record

4

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-284

Vegas Odds

228

47%

% Fights to Dec

29%

243

Inside The Distance Prop

770

 

Snapshot:

In the 9th fight of the night, 26 year old Leon Edwards who stands at 5-2 in the UFC, takes on the 28 year old American scrapper, Bryan Barberena, who currently holds a 4-2 record in the UFC. Barberena is a fun fighter to watch, as he has a very blue collar style that many Americans can relate to. He has 2 big victories as an underdog; Sage Northcutt and Warley Alves, and he’ll look to use his experience overcoming the odds in those fights into this fight, as he currently stands at a +228 underdog to Edwards, the Brit.

Barberena has a nice output when he is striking, and this is what we are typically looking for in a rosterable fighter. His wrestling isn’t awful either, as he proved to us in the Colby Covington fight that he could get up after a takedown, and this is an important factor for him to be able to dictate the fight. I also really like Barberena’s value here, as he is only $7,200, and I think he should be somewhere closer to $7,800. Barberena will never roll over and die, and his heart, combined with striking output, and solid wrestling makes him a nice Live Dog play for me!

PICK: Barberena, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Barberena (7.5/10): Odds of victory are not guaranteed, but there aren’t many “Live Dogs” on this card, so we need to get them where we can.

GPP: Barberens (8/10): You need 6 victories in a GPP in order to take home the top prize, and this means you need to roster a few dogs that will pull out a victory, and Barberena is one of the few dogs I think actually has a chance at winning on this card.    

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

135 lb

Marion Reneau

Vs.

Talita Bernardo

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

3

Record

5

1

3

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-345

Vegas Odds

100

40%

% Fights to Dec

33%

135

Inside The Distance Prop

515

 

Snapshot:

Marion Reneau is 40 years old and comes into this fight with a 3-2-1 UFC record. Bernardo is taking this fight on short notice, filling in for Germaine de Randamie. Bernardo is 30 years old, and has a 5-1 record as a pro.

Reneau is a solid fighter with very good striking abilities, and an underrated ground game, and this is important, as Bernardo has a very good ground game and will want to get this one to the ground because her striking is pretty gross. The real question becomes, can Reneau stuff the takedown and keep this one on the feet. If she can, she will throw a high volume of strikes as she lands a pretty solid 3.91 Significant Strikes per minute.

I could see this fight playing out one of two ways: 1) the most likely outcome, Reneau prevents the takedowns, and keeps the fight standing, aggressively outpointing Bernardo, and taking home an impressive decision victory where she lands a lot of strikes and scores >100 points, and (2) Reneau isn’t able to stuff the takedowns, and Bernardo get’s the fight to the ground and wins 2 rounds due to TD’s and positional advantages. I think the former is much more likely to happen, and could be a nice scoring affair for our rosters. I also think that she’ll be pretty low owned, which definitely helps our GPP rosters.

PICK: Reneau, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Reneau (8/10): Automatic win? No, but close.

GPP: Reneau (8.5/10): I like her striking output, and I think her ownership will be low enough for us to want her in a good amount of our GPP rosters.                        

                                                           

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

185 lbs

Siyar Bahadurzada

Vs.

Rob Wilkinson

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

22

6

Record

11

0

2

2

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-148

Vegas Odds

123

29%

% Fights to Dec

9%

112

Inside The Distance Prop

225

Snapshot

The co-main event of the night pits Siyar Bahadurzada who is 33 years old, and is 2-2 in the UFC, while Rob Wilkinson is 25 years old, is 11-0 as a pro, and is making his UFC debut on short notice. Bahadurzada has very solid striking, and Wilkinson will want to try and get this one to the ground, which he may do a few times, but Bahadurzada will find his way back to his feet if he is taken down by Wilkinson. This will by far be the biggest test of Wilkinson’s young career, and it will be under the brightest lights in the sport, so will this play a factor.

Ultimately, I think Bahadurzada’s experience, and impressive striking will eventually lead to a KO, and Wilkinson sleeping on the canvas. This is somewhat of a question mark though, because if Wilkinson finds success on the ground, and is able to keep the Afghan fighter on the ground, then it will be a long boring victory for the Australian.

PICK: Bahadurzada, KO, 2nd

Cash Game: Bahadurzada (7/10): Tight line makes me a little nervous in Cash.

GPP: Bahadurzada (8/10): I smell a KO coming, and it could be a nice high scoring night for the Afghan fighter!

 

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

265 lbs

Alexander Volkov

Vs.

Stefan Struve

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

28

6

Record

27

8

2

0

UFC Record

12

6

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-127

Vegas Odds

103

29%

% Fights to Dec

9%

155

Inside The Distance Prop

140

 

Snapshot:

The main event is one that pits 2 skyscrapers against each other. Alexander Volkov is a slight favorite, and has an $8,400 salary, while Struve is a slight dog with a $7,800 price tag. Both fighters are pretty well rounded, and I think this one will stay on the feet for the entirety of the fight. Struve’s chin needs to be questioned here, but so does Volkov’s. Both these guys have power that can end this fight quickly, and painfully.

The inside the distance props here are nice on both fighters. Will Struve’s experience outweigh Volkov’s youth and striking ability? I will most likely not be rostering either of these fighters in Cash, as it really is a toss up, but I think we have to have exposure to both of these fighters due to the 5 rounds that they could possibly fight, and their ability to strike. If this does go to the later rounds though, this could be a lay and pray fest, as both guys most likely don’t have the gas tanks to continue to throw at a high volume throughout all 5 rounds.

PICK: Struve, Sub, 3rd

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Struve (7.5/10): it’s a coin flip, but I like Struve’s value a little bit more, and combine that with his experience, then I think he’ll be the victor.                          

Volkov (7/10): You need to have some exposure to Volkov as well.

                                                           

Optimal Lineups

 

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Edilov

$9,500

2

Prazeres

$9,400

3

Barberena

$7,200

4

Struve

$7,800

5

Reneau

$9,100

6

Santiago

$6,900

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Bahadurzada

$8,300

2

Barberena

$7,200

3

Edilov

$9,500

4

Prazeres

$9,400

5

Gouti

$7,400

6

Struve

$7,800