MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night 114

UFC Fight Night 114 takes place Saturday night in Mexico City, and this will be the last UFC event for about a month! This is a much needed break, as we’ve had 11 cards over the last 10 weeks, and has put all of us handicappers to the test. My wife and kids have been looking for their absentee husband and father over the last few months, and on Friday night I’ll come crawling out of the basement with a full beard (went in beardless), 20 lbs lighter, and my eyes sensitive to light. It’s time to remember what my kids look like, and how it feels to hug my wife….at least until September that is!

This card takes place at high elevation in Mexico City, and the last time the UFC visited this city you saw multiple fighters put on lackluster performances due to the elevation, and how it affected their cardio. We will definitely want to keep an eye on how long each fighter has been in Mexico City, and where they have done their training camp for this fight, and if it was at elevation or not. This is relevant information, and should be taken into consideration when handicapping fights, and compiling your lineups for DraftKings. Most of this info is taken from fighters Instagram, Twitter, or other social media accounts, so it should be pretty accurate. You can find a listing of all of this info on my Twitter account: @TJ_Scott_MMA .

Anyone who showed up during fight week, and did not give themselves at least 2 weeks to acclimate to the elevation should be looked at with at least a slight eye of concern. The last time the UFC came to Mexico City, Cain Velasquez did not give himself enough time to acclimate, and he looked awful in his fight, gassing badly, and ultimately costing himself the belt. Look for 10+ days of acclamation to be a positive length of time for the body to properly acclimate.

This fight card is an interesting one, as there are many different ways to go when compiling your lineups, and there are a few fights that could really have a big impact on this card, and possibly your rosters. Look for high volume strikers who can grapple, and advance position on the ground. There are some of those fighters on the card - we just need to figure out whos for real, and whos not. Onward to the card!

Undercard

Snapshot: The first fight of the night pits American Jordan Rinaldi (12-5, -230, $9k) up against Mexican fighter Alvaro “El Chango” Herrera (8-4, +190, $7,200). Both of these guys are coming off long layoffs, as Rinaldi hasn’t fought in 433 days, and Herrera 394 days!

Herrera is 1-1 in the UFC, winning his debut back in Nov of 2015 against Vernon Ramos by 1st round KO, but he ended up dropping his next bout to Vincente Luque in the 2nd round by submission. Against Luque his cardio did not look good at all, and this is something that is resonating with me moreso on this card due to the elevation that these fighters will be competing at. I keep talking about this elevation deal, and you’re probably already sick of hearing it, but you cannot overlook this factor! Think about how you view hitters in Colorado when you are compiling your MLB DFS lineups, and how you devalue pitchers who are scheduled to start in Colorado as well. It is an important factor when analyzing MLB DFS lineups, and I think it is equally important when looking at this UFC card as well.

Rinaldi is a solid wrestler and grappler, as he has 7 of his 12 wins coming by way of the submission, and another 4 wins by decision. 41% of his fights go to decision, regardless of whether it’s a win or a loss. This is typically higher than I like to see, but Rinaldi’s style is a nice mix of strikes, takedowns, advances, and submission attempts, and in the new UFC scoring world, this is a nice mix that should put him into position to score some solid points. I’m thinking Rinaldi should be able to handle Herrera with ease. Herrera’s stamina will turn out to be his demise, and I foresee Rinaldi sinking in the fight finishing choke either late in the 1st round or halfway through the 2nd round.

Rinaldi has a higher price tag of $9k, but I think he has a very good chance of beating the 10x goal that I set for my fighters. I’ll definitely have some solid exposure to Rinaldi in all formats.

PICK: Rinaldi, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Rinaldi (8.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and his style sets up nicely for a high scoring DK affair.

GPP: Rinaldi (8/10): Odds of winning ar high, his ceiling is also pretty high, and his ownership should be somewhat tempered due to his higher price tag.

Snapshot: Team Alpha Male fighter, Joe Morales (8-0, +110, $8,100), makes his UFC debut on Saturday night against fellow America, Roberto Sanchez (7-0, -130, $8,100) in this 125 lb bout. Both of these guys come in with unblemished records, and have proven to be very good fighters on the regional circuits, and are now looking to prove their worth on the international stage.

Morales comes from one of the best fight camps in the game right now, so you have to assume he has been brought up through the ranks at a very measured pace, and have been matched up favorably while building his record on the regional scene. Morales has a great pedigree, and this will be an advantage over Roberto Sanchez. Another advantage we must not overlook is the fact that Morales is 8 years younger than Santos, and at the lighter weight classes, this most often times is a factor in the fight.

Morales is a slight underdog at +110, while both fighters boast an $8,100 salary, which many DFS’ers like to focus on when trying to build a 6 win GPP lineup. Both guys are in the middle of the pack when it comes to Inside the Distance props, Odd to Win in Rnd 1 props, odds, and salary, so this will be a tough one to call. This is a coin flip, and a fight that I do see some value in. Both of these guys having fighting styles that are susceptible to putting up some serious DK points. I think both guys will try and get this fight to the ground, and will look to use ground and pound to open up opportunities to lock in a submission and end the fight.  

One factor that is a big concern for me is the fact that Sanchez has only been in Mexico City, at elevation, for 3-5 days. This is not even close to enough time for his body to acclimate, so take this into account when formulating your LU’s, or thinking about throwing a bet down. Combine the possible gas tank issue for Sanchez with the fact that Morales has been training full time with one of the best camps in the game, who are known to have very impressive gas tanks, and also consider the fact that I think Morales is just a little better than Sanchez at almost every facet of the game, and I think you have a very rosterable fighter in Morales! The pace of this fight will make it fun to watch, and with the transitions, and other point scoring moves and positions that will inevitably happen, I think Morales could score 100+ points even in a decision win.

PICK: Morales, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Morales (7/10): I think there is some value here, and I think the lines should be flipped, if you’d ask me. I think Morales could be a nice backbone to many Cash LU’s.

GPP: Morales (8/10): Coin flip of a fight from a Vegas odds perspective, but I think Morales has many advantages working in his favor going into this one. Here are a few of those advantages: better fighter than Sanchez in every aspect, but not by much, a better gas tank than Sanchez, a better training camp than Sanchez, has been in Mexico City for much longer than Sanchez, and all these combined will prove to be the difference.

Snapshot: Fight number 3 of the night has Mexican fighter, Jose Quinonez (5-2, -255, $8,200), takes on Chilean fighter, Diego Rivas (7-0, +215, $8,000), in this Bantamweight bout. Both of these guys are relatively new to the UFC with only 5 fights between them in the UFC, so there are some question marks here. I’m sure if you looked closely at the numbers within the Tale of the Tape above, or doing any of your own research, you’ll notice that there is something pretty glaring when comparing these two fighters. The DraftKings salaries are telling us that this should pretty much be a pick ‘em, but when you look at the Vegas betting odds on this one, you’ll notice that is not the case at all! The line opened pretty much as a pick ‘em, but within minutes of the line being released, the odds swung drastically and placed Quinonez as the more than 2:1 favorite over Rivas. So what does this mean for us? It means we are getting some serious value in Quinonez!

Quinonez has by far and away the best value on the card when you compare every fighter’s betting odds to their DK salaries. He is currently ranked as having the 10th highest DraftKings salary on the card with his $8,200 price tag. When looking at his Vegas betting odds you’ll notice that he is currently ranked 2nd overall on the card with his -255 betting line as it currently stands! This is a difference in 8 ranks when comparing the DK salary rank to the betting odds rank. That’s a big difference, and a big opportunity for us to roster him, and take advantage of the value being presented here by DK! If the DK salaries were to come out right now, and they knew Quinonez was settling as a -255 favorite, then I bet his DK salary would be somewhere around $9,000. That’s right, we are getting a discount of $800 - $1,000 in DK salary by rostering Quinonez!

Now this all sounds great, but will he score us points in our DK lineups? My answer: yes. In his last UFC bout when he beat the very talented joey Gomez by decision back in September of 2016, he was able to rack up an impressive 118 points in a decision victory! This tells me that his active style in the cage will give his opponents fits, and will also give the FightMetric statisticians scoring the fight for DK fits as well. This is a good thing, and we’re going to take advantage of it!  

PICK: Quinonez, Decision (high scoring), Unanimous

Cash Game: Quinonez (8/10): I like his odds of winning, especially for the price we got him at. Quietly, he could be the highest scorer of the night. Shhhhhh….

GPP: Quinonez (9/10): I think he’ll be a sleeper when it comes to how many points he ends up putting up, but I think he’ll be highly owned due to the value being presented here when comparing the DK salary to the betting odds. Regardless, we need this value, and high ceiling potential on our rosters.  

Snapshot: Veteran Rani Yahya makes his 12th UFC appearance as he takes on Mexican fighter Henry Briones. Yahhya has much more experience than Briones, but he’s actually 4 years younger than the 3 fight UFC veteran (36 vs. 32). Briones will want to keep this one standing, and set a grinding pace, which he’s capable of doing as he brings in an average of 3.91 Strikes Landed per Minute. On the flip side, his defense is porous, as he absorbs 4.99 Strikes per Minute - by far the highest average on the card.

Yahya’s path to victory lies in a submission that occurs within the 1st round and a half. Yahya has a notoriously awful gas tank, and it’s something that really has limited his effectiveness throughout his career. If Birones can prevent from being taken down, and wear down Yahya through the first 2 rounds, then he has a very good chance at winning this one as a +190 underdog.

I like Yahya’s chances for victory early in the fight, and this would put him in the 80-95 point range, but he will not be racking up many points through his strikes, so he’ll have to be effective with his takedowns, grappling advances, and a hopeful early stoppage (1st 2 rounds). You’ll have to pay for Yahya ($8,900), and he does come with some risk. From an underdog perspective, I do like Birones to some degree. There aren’t a plethora of “Live Dogs” on this card, so you need to throw a few against the wall to see who sticks, and Briones is one of those few towards the top of the Live Dog pile.

PICK: Yahya, Sub, 1st

Cash Game: Yahya (6/10): His stamina is a concern, and my confidence in his victory is not where I’d like it to be for a Cash LU.

GPP: Yahya (7/10): I like him a little more in GPP’s due to his high ceiling, as I think he’ll win in the 1st round if he does win.

Snapshot: The perverbial gatekeeper, Dustin Ortiz, takes on Hector Sandoval in this 125 lb battle. Ortiz has gone 5-5 in the UFC, and most recently lost to this card’s headliner, Brandon Moreno by submission back in April of this year. He’s fought some serious competition over his 10 fights in the UFC, and overall is a much higher level of competition that Sandoval has taken on over his 17 fight career, and 3 fight UFC career.

Ortiz has an $8,800 price tag, and currently stands at a -210 favorite, and the lines seems to continuing to move in Ortiz’s favor. Sandoval is trying to prove the haters wrong and show them that he belongs in the upper-echelon of the UFC’s Flyweight division. He’ll need to make this a scrappy, grinding affair, and he’ll have to do it against a guy who knows that game well, and has the heart and experience to overcome Sandoval’s athelticism and power.

Ortiz will win this one through grappling exchanges, but I do think it will go the distance. Both fighters have higher Inside the DIstance props, and both average about a 50% decision rate in their pro MMA career’s. With that being said, I think Ortiz wins a close decision, and will rack up 75 - 90 DK points, mostly through takedowns and advances, not strikes.

PICK: Ortiz, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Ortiz (6/10:) Don’t love him here, but he may be useful to some.

GPP: Ortiz (6/10): I think he wins, but most likely in a somewhat boring decision that some may see as controversial.

Snapshot: I really like this fight.The Swede, Jack Hermansson, is coming off an impressive TKO of Alex Nicholson back in May of this year. He’s currently a -255 favorite with a $9,100 price tag, so Hermansson will need to really perform to earn his $9,100 price tag. He’ll need to finish this fight in order to earn at least 90 points Saturday night, and his current Inside the Distance prop is currently +165. Hermansson has very good hands, and produces a really solid output, and volume/output are very important factors in determining value of fighters in DFS MMA, and the Swede has a habit of getting involved in high paced striking matches that have a potential to earn some serious DK points.

Scott wants a slowed down, grinding pace where he can win a decision. I will not have much exposure to Scott at all, so lets move on.

Hermansson is a top 3 ranked fighter for me on this card, and I’ll surely have exposure to him, but so will many others, so his value in GPP’s reduces slightly due to this. I still really like him in Cash games though.

PICK: Hermansson, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Hermansson (8.5/10): Odds of winning are high, has a high ceiling, and fun to watch.

GPP: Hermansson (8/10): I still like him in GPP’s, but he will be highly owned IMO.

Main Card

Snapshot: I’ve seen Andre Soukhamthath many times, and he is a talented fighter who deserves to be in the UFC, but the fact that he just arrived in Mexico City a few days ago really concerns me. There is no way to get your body acclimated in that short amount of time, and I think this will be an issue for AS.

Overall, I’m not loving this matchup, and I don’t see much value in the salaries here. I’ll be avoiding this fight due to the fact that these guys will probably gassing quickly, and making this one into a grinding, slow-paced affair, and that’s not what we’re looking for in a DK fighter to roaster. Move along. Nothing to see here.

PICK: Perez, Boring Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

Snapshot: This is another really tough fight to consider from a DraftKings perspective. If Alvey doesn’t KO his opponent, he typically makes it a slow-paced counter-striking contest that isn’t the most appealing fight to watch, and is almost sickening to watch when you have either fighter rostered within your DK lineups. Alvey will be concerned about getting taken down, so he’ll be very cautious with throwing his strikes aggressively, as he’ll be more focused on staying off his back.

Rashad Evans is still a talented fighter, but let’s be honest, he is on the downside of his career, and I hope he knows when to hang ‘em up. If Alvey KO’s Evans, then we know that his chin no longer remains, and it’s time to leave the gloves in the cage as you exit. Evans’ path to victory is through what he knows best: wrestling. He wants to get Alvey to the ground and grind out a victory. He’ll use heavy top pressure, and vicious elbows to hopefully cut the ginger, and bring a stoppage to the affair. Easier said than done, as Alvey will have trained for this, and will be prepared to stuff Evans’ takedown attempts. Maybe Evans uses this as bait, and throws a Sean Salmon-esque head kick that puts Alvey to sleep? Who knows, but this fight concerns me, as I have a feeling it won’t be very appeasing from a DK perspective. A low scoring affair, but Evans is a Live Dog, and someone who I will use to fill in my rosters when a Live Dog is needed.

PICK: Evans, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: Evans (6.5/10): A Live Dog here, and one who does have KO power, but will most likely win by Dec. He will be popular due to name recognition though. Alvey (6/10): I think he’s overpriced, especially knowing how he’ll want this one to play out: counter striking, stuffing TD’s.

Snapshot: Martin Bravo comes in as a -320 favorite with a $9,200 salary, and he is taking on Humerto Bandenay on short notice, who comes in as a +250 dog, and a $7,000 salary. Bravo is an incredibly aggressive fighter, and he’ll look to end this one quickly and viciously. Any fighter who takes a fight on short notice in Mexico City is crazy, and should be someone you fade from a DK perspective. This will be a BIG vicious win in Mexico City for the Mexican fighter! This is a total setup for Bravo, and we should take the 100+ points and like it.

PICK: Bravo, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Bravo (9/10):

GPP: Bravo (8.5/10):

Snapshot: I really like Alan Jouban in this spot. He knows the path to victory. He’ll need to keep his distance, strike at range, and use his superior technique to out point Price, and possibly KO him in the 2nd or 3rd round. Price may throw some wild hay-makers, and he will want to get this one to the ground, but I think Jouban is skillful enough to get off the mat. Jouban will use his experience and technique to win a decision victory, and possibly with a few knockdowns that are worth 10 DK points! My only concern is that Jouban may get comfortable in circling without throwing a high volume of strikes. In order for Jouban to pay off for us, he’ll most likely have to KO Price. Fingers crossed.

PICK: Jouban, Dec, Unanimous

Cash Game: Jouban (7/10): Odds to win are high, but ceiling is somewhat low unless he lands a KO victory.

GPP: Jouban (6/10): Needs a KO, and I don’t think it’s going to happen.

Snapshot: In the only women’s fight of the night, 23 year old Alexa Grasso who is 1-1 in the UFC, takes on 31 year old Randa Markos, who stands at 3-3 in the UFC. Markos is a slight dog at +145 with a $7,900 salary, but don’t let the numbers fool you. She is a legit strawweight contender, and she’s fought some of the toughest competition available to her, and has proven to be a worthy opponent at the highest levels of the sport.

Grasso is coming off a decision loss to Felice Herrig back in February of this year, and over her last 4 fights (3-1), all of them have gone to decision, and 6 out of her last 7 fights have gone to decision. Combine that with Markos decisioning 5 of her last 6 opponents, and you have a fight that is highly likely to go to the judges scorecards. So what does that mean for us? It means that this would have to be a high volume striking affair with some takedowns, advances, and hopefully a knockdown or two mixed in.

Looking at recent film, and FightMetric stats, I just don’t see these two going at it in a high volume striking contest, and this makes it a very unattractive fight from a DK perspective. It’s a close fight, and the winner wins by decision and probably only racks up 65-75 points. I think I’ll avoid this one, but I may have a small amount exposure to Markos as the dog.

PICK: Markos, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Markos (6/10): I like her as a Live Dog, but not enough to have confidence in her ability to rack up points for my squad.

GPP: Markos (5.5/10): I like her dog status here, but she has a low ceiling, and could possibly lose this one, which isn’t a great combo.

Snapshot: The main event of the evening has 15-2 Sergio Pettis takes on 14-3 Brandon Moreno. This will be a fun fight to watch, and one that could go either way, but feel like I know how this one is going to play out.

Pettis is a Slight underdog at +150 with a $7,700 DK salary. He is a crisp striker with excellent footwork, and solid stamina, which will be important in this fight. Moreno is a strong wrestler with heavy hands, but he tends to tire after a few rounds, and this could be emphasized even more due to the elevation of Mexico City. Moreno has a very attractive Inside the Distance prop of +125, which is one of the best on the card, but if he can’t finish Pettis within the first 2.5 rounds, then I could see the tides turn, and Pettis gain steam and out point the Mexican fighter over the last 2.5 rounds.

Moreno goes hard out of the gate, and Pettis has been stopped before, and I think this will be Moreno’s path to victory - an aggressive early attack that has him landing some heavy shots, and then locking up a submission within the first 2 rounds. I will have some exposure to Pettis in GPP’s, just in case, but for the most part, Moreno will be one of my top plays of the card.

PICK: Moreno, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Moreno (8.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and his price tag isn’t too bad.

GPP: Moreno (9/10): Give me that super high ceiling, and I think Pettis will have some high ownership due to his name recognition.

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Cash 2

GPP 1

GPP 2