UFC 214 takes place Saturday night in Anaheim, California, and it could quite possibly be the best card that we’ll see all year. There are 3 title fights on the card, with numerous other contests on the undercard that have got my attention. There aren’t many grapplers on this card, so expect to see a lot of standup action come Saturday night. 

DraftKings has a bunch of great contests up for this HUGE card, so make sure you get over there and check out all the GPP options that are available, because this is the most DFS MMA money that’s been up for grabs this year. Take advantage of it! 

With that being said, I really like 4-5 options on this card, but it is tough to fit them in your lineups, as there aren’t many “Live Dogs” on this card to choose from. The guys who are underdogs right now that I consider “Live” are: Barao, Burkman, Kattar, & Cerrone. I’m going out on a limb with Kattar, but he allows me to have many more options for rosters with him in my LU’s. Consider him a punt if you want, but I’ve seen Kattar fight many times, and the kid isn’t as bad as his salary and line say. I think we’re getting some nice value with Kattar, and it’s a better option than stacking with Cyborg and Evinger. Punt Evinger, and replace with Kattar, and you’re good to go. 

Without further ado, take a look at my preview below, and be sure to follow me on Twitter @TJ_Scott_MMA, as I’ll be live Tweeting during the event on Saturday with random commentary. Let’s make it rain some shekels!

 

Undercard 

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Joshua Burkman

Vs.

Drew Dober

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

28

15

Record

17

8

6

10

UFC Record

3

4

1

4

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,200

DK Salary

$9,000

300

Vegas Odds

-360

40%

% Fights to Dec

40%

626

Inside The Distance Prop

145

 

Snapshot: 

The first fight on the prelims has Josh Burkman (1-5 in his last 6 UFC fights) taking on Drew Dober, who’s coming in as a more than 3/1 favorite. Burkman has had one heck of a MMA career that dates back all the way to The Ultimate Fighter 2 in late 2005! That’s an almost 12 year career of fighting at the highest level of the sport, and you can bet that he’s taken some serious shots throughout his career, but Burkman has always proven to have a pretty solid chin.

 Unfortunately, Burkman’s best days are far behind him, and he has not had a good performance in the cage in more than 3 years. He probably should have been cut after his submission loss to Michel dos Prazeres back in March of this year, as it was his 3rd defeat in a row, and 5th in his last 6 UFC fights, with his lone win coming against a washed out KJ Noons. Burkman has that one Noons win, and his singular win dating back to March of 2014 is not an impressive one. 

I give Josh Burkman all the respect in the world for sticking with this sport since it’s 2005 boom, but the time has come for him to hang them up, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he actually retires in the cage if he does lose. The last thing we want to see is a guy who has put in some serious time, effort, and damage at the highest level of his profession, and have him get seriously injured because he didn’t know when to say when. Fortunately for Burkman, I don’t think Drew Dober is the one to hurt him to the point of disrepair. 

Dober has a solid Muay Thai game, but he was picked apart by a longer, bigger Olivier Aubin-Mercier back in December of 2016, and eventually succumbed to a rear-naked choke from the crafty Canadian. Dober has solid cardio, and has a solid camp behind him in Team Elevation in Denver, but he doesn’t have a MMA game that is overwhelming, and I question the power in his hands sometimes. With this being said, I think Burkman is experienced enough, and will be able to handle Dober’s power without getting KO’ed. If Burkman wants to make this a wrestling first, grinder of an affair, then I think he has a shot at winning on the judges scorecard. But if he can’t keep Dober on the mat, then I think DD will have the more effective striking exchanges, and eventually winning a Decision on the judges scorecard. 

Dober is priced at $9,000, while Burkman has a price tag of $7,200. There’s a huge gap here both from an odds perspective, and a DK salary perspective, and I don’t think it should be this wide. Dober has a pretty solid striking game, but if he can’t time up the veteran Burkman, then I think Dober will have a tough time landing clean strikes against an elusive, and experienced Burkman who has faced much better competition in his career up to this point (the likes of Hector Lombard, Mike Swick, Paul Felder, Patrick Cote, Jon Fitch (twice), Karo Parisyan, Josh Neer, and Jeremy Horn). If Burkman can’t make this a gritty, ugly battle, then I think Dober out points him on the feet. 

The real question becomes: are either of these fighters rosterable within our DK lineups on Saturday. The real answer? No. As much as this could be an entertaining fight, as both guys need to impress to hang around, I just don’t have enough confidence in Dober to spend $9,000 on him. I think Dober wins this one, but in a Decision victory, and not one that racks up many points. I doubt he gets to 10x his salary, so this is one we can fade, I believe. Sit back and watch Dober win a close decision, score 70 DK points, and then pay some respect to Josh Burkman as he leaves his gloves in the cage and retires for good, capping an impressive MMA career. There aren’t many fighters left in the UFC that can say that they fought for the organization dating back to 2005, and hopefully when Josh Burkman takes some time to reflect on his career, he can smile and know that he has brought mass amounts of joy to MMA fans around the world for more than a decade! 

 

PICK: Dober, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Eric Shelton

Vs.

Jarred Brooks

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

10

3

Record

12

0

0

1

UFC Record

0

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

130

Vegas Odds

-150

46%

% Fights to Dec

42%

455

Inside The Distance Prop

490

 

Snapshot: 

The 2nd fight of the night pits UFC newcomer, Jarred Brooks, against TUF 24 alum, Eric Shelton. Brooks was suppose to make his UFC debut against Ian McCall at UFC 208, but was canceled late due to McCall having health issues from cutting weight. This should be a very entertaining fight in the 125 lb division, as both of these guys have speed, solid striking, and legit wrestling credentials. 

Shelton last fought in the UFC in January, losing a razor thin split decision to Alexandre Pantoja. Brooks last fought in Pancrase back in October of last year, earning a 2nd round KO against a porous Japanese opponent. A few big factors in this fight that you need to keep an eye on; how big of a size advantage will Shelton have, as this fight is being contested at 125 lbs, and Brooks can easily fight at 115 lbs. Will this size advantage give Shelton an advantage in scrambles and on the ground? Good chance. Another thing to keep an eye on; will Shelton’s speed allow him to avoid Brooks’ takedown attempts and strike at distance? Good chance. Last but not least; if Brooks does get Shelton to the ground, will Shelton be able to easily get back to his feet? Good chance. 

Both these guys are fun to watch fight, as they are high-energy combatants who don’t back down! This could steal the fight of the night, and is a very tough fight to handicap, although I’ll give the slight edge to Shelton at this point, as he’s already had the experience of fighting in the UFC before, and spent the TUF 24 season battling through a very high-level house, and training with some of the best. This experience could be the difference in the fight, but I’m going to wait to committing to either of these fighters until I see the size comparison when they square off. If Shelton is noticeably bigger, then I’ll have some exposure to him in my LU’s, as I think the winner of this fight could easily score 100+ points in a decision win due to the high pace of the action in this Flyweight bout. It most likely will go to a decision, and based on the speed and aggression of both these fighters, could be a tough fight to judge, meaning someone could get screwed! 

From a DraftKings perspective Brooks is coming in with an $8,600 salary and a -155 favorite over Shelton who has a $7,600 salary and is a +135 underdog. I think there is some value in Shelton here. He’s fought tougher competition, he’s been on this stage before, and he has a size advantage over his debuting foe. I like the combination of these advantages, and I think Shelton is a Live Dog due to these factors. I’ll be grabbing this line early before it heads towards a pick ‘em, and I’ll most likely have a healthy heaping of Shelton in my DK LU’s due to the value we are getting with this $7,600 salary, as I think it should be closer to a pick ‘em, and an $8,200 salary. We’ll take it when we can get it! 

 

PICK: Shelton, Decision, Split

Cash Game:  Shelton (6/10): I think he has a better chance to win than the odds currently state, but it will be a grinding, very close fight, so you’ll need to deal with the stress when watching this fight and rostering either of them. 

GPP: Shelton (7/10): I like the value in his salary compared to where the odds are going to settle. I also like his chances of winning outright, and overpowering Brooks with his size. 

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Kailin Curran

Vs.

Alexandra Albu

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

4

4

Record

2

0

1

4

UFC Record

1

0

1

4

Record Last 5

2

4

$7,900

DK Salary

$8,300

145

Vegas Odds

-165

50%

% Fights to Dec

0%

436

Inside The Distance Prop

195

 

Snapshot: 

Our first female fight of the evening has Kailin Curran ($7,900) taking on Alexandra Albu ($8,300). Curran has one win in the UFC sandwiched between 2 fight losing streaks on both sides. She is 1-4 in the UFC, and has not looked very impressive in her first 5 fights on the world’s biggest stage. It’s hard to have any sort of confidence in Curran compiling points for your lineup, but if she does pull off a quick first round submission, she could be a very low owned fighter who will most likely be on winning GPP rosters. Regardless, I can’t put faith in her helping my roster earn points, so I surely won’t have exposure to Curran. 

Albu hasn’t fought in more than 2 years (840 days to be exact), and this could be a big deal as well. She made her UFC debut back in April of 2015, pulling off a 2nd round submission victory. Ring rust should be a serious concern here, and this doesn’t make her very appealing as a rosterable option either. 

Albu does a nice job of preventing takedowns by using her wide, thick base, and if she can prevent Curran from taking her down, then I think she’ll be able to eventually break away, and land the more effective strikes over the course of her 3 round decision victory. 

Here’s the problems with this fight from a DFS perspective: these two just can’t be trusted as great options to produce for our lineups. Curran with her terrible track record, and Albu with her 840 days off, make it very difficult for me to roster either fighter, so I’ll be fading this one. 

 

PICK: Albu, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Andre Fili

Vs.

Calvin Kattar

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

16

4

Record

16

2

4

3

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-380

Vegas Odds

315

25%

% Fights to Dec

44%

100

Inside The Distance Prop

475

 

Snapshot: 

The next fight on the card has 7 fight UFC veteran, Andre “Touchy” Fili taking on short notice UFC newcomer, 16-2 Calvin Kattar. Kattar is taking the fight on a few weeks notice, as this is how many UFC rookies get there opportunity. It’s well known that if you help out the organization, and take a fight on short notice, then you’ll get at least or two more fights on the world’s largest stage. This is well worth the trade, especially when you are asking a guy who has been training for this moment for more than 10 years, like Kattar has. 

Fili is a legit prospect with very good footwork, and solid head movement when engaging in strikes. He’s big for the featherweight division, but so is Kattar, so I don’t think he’ll have a very big size advantage in this one. Fili has an impressive gas tank, and his athleticism is impressive when watching him move around the cage. Fili trains with the vaunted Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California, while Kattar is on the opposite coast training with Mark Dellagrotte in Boston. Kattar trains alongside fellow UFC veterans Rob Font, and Tony Martin at Dellagrotte’s gym, Sytyotong. 

Kattar has made his mark in the Northeast on many regional shows, compiling an impressive 16-2 record since 2007. Kattar took 3 years off from the sport from 2013 - 2016, as he bought a promotion in New England, and built it up over that time period. With his promotion running on all cylinders now, Kattar decided to get back into the game about a year and a half ago, rattling off two decision victories against high level regional competition. He was on the short list for a UFC call, and it came in the form of a 2 week short notice fight request across the country against a very solid featherweight fighter. Not ideal, but he’ll take the risk to get into the major leagues of MMA. 

Fili has traded wins and losses in the UFC over his last 7 fights, never stringing to wins together, and never losing two in a row as well. DK and the bookies obviously feel pretty good about Fili’s chances against an unknown fighter in Kattar, as he currently stands at a -380 favorite with a $9,200 salary, making him the 2nd priciest fighter, only behind Cyborg who’s at $9,600 and is an amazing -1375 favorite, but we’ll get to her later. 

Kattar has solid standup, a pretty good ground game, and a wealth of experience on the regional level in order to prepare him for his debut. I’ve seen Kattar fight many times before, and he has pretty solid striking, and has the ability to press the fight against foes who are looking to counter strike. He currently stands as a pretty big underdog at +315 with a $7,000 DK price tag. I think there definitely is some value here with Kattar, as he is a much better fighter than the bookies and DK are giving him credit for, trust me on this one. The only concern that I have is whether his cardio is good enough to battle at full speed for 3 rounds. Only time will tell. 

Fili is an impressive fighter, and he probably still wins this fight, although I don’t think he’ll be able to stop the smart fighter in Kattar. I think this one will go to the scorecards, so feel free to bet on over 2.5 rounds, which currently stands at -105. If Kattar can string this one out to a decision, then you never know what will happen, and he could be a huge Live Dog that pulls off an unexpected victory, and that’s what we’re hunting for when it comes to choosing dogs for our DK LU’s. I also am leaning towards Katter because by taking on his very low $7k salary, it affords you room to roster the monster that is Cris Cyborg, who most likely will score 120+ points. 

 

PICK: Kattar, Decision, Split

Cash Game: Kattar (6/10): Not great odds of victory, so he probably won’t be on my top 2-3 Cash lineups, but I’ll have him in a few. 

GPP: Kattar (8/10): I like him more in GPP’s, as he’ll be very low owned, and we are getting tremendous value here, as I think Kattar should be a +180 underdog, not the +315 that it currently is! 

Fili (7.5/10): I’m going to have some exposure to Fili as well, so use your best judgement if you don’t want to play both. 

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Renato "Moicano" Carneiro

Vs.

Brian Ortega

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

0

Record

11

0

3

0

UFC Record

3

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,200

DK Salary

$8,000

-150

Vegas Odds

130

55%

% Fights to Dec

36%

472

Inside The Distance Prop

398

 

Snapshot: 

In this 145 pound bout, we have an exciting matchup between two undefeated fighter. Both Brian Ortega and Renato Moicano are 11-0, so as they say in the cage - “someone’s “O” must go!”. This could be an exciting fight, as the line is pretty tight, and both these guys are developing before our eyes as fans. Moicano is the current favorite at -150 and has a DK salary of $8,200, while Ortega is at +130 and $8k. 

Ortega has very good footwork, and likes to use that to his advantage, jumping in the pocket with a few strikes, then quickly exiting and angling off. He’s not an attacking, smothering fighter on the feet. He likes to keep his distance, and use his length. He’s also very good off his back and has many late submission wins where he was losing the fight by decision. 

Moicano is a solid striker who was able to beat a legit Jeremy Stephens back in April by split decision. He won by pot shotting Stephens, and landing vicious leg kicks throughout the battle, and then circled away, keeping his distance.  

I am going to enjoy watching this fight as a fan, and I’m almost positive that it will go the distance, and I have a feeling that these guys may offset each other with their games. Not good news from a DK perspective. Both fighter’s Inside the DIstance props are very bad - +400, and +470 respectively. I like Moicano to win by decision, but I don’t think that it’ll be a clash that racks up a lot of DK points. The winner will have 80 points max, and honestly, it could go either way. That’s how close this fight is. With all those factors, I think I’ll be sitting this one out due to the unknowns. 

 

PICK: Moicano, Dec, Split

Cash Game:  N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

140

Aljamain Sterling

Vs.

Renan Barao

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

2

Record

34

4

5

2

UFC Record

9

3

3

2

Record Last 5

2

3

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-125

Vegas Odds

105

47%

% Fights to Dec

34%

340

Inside The Distance Prop

535

 

Snapshot: 

13-2 Aljamain Sterling takes on 34-4 Renan Barao in this 140 lb catchweight. This catch weight is somewhat significant, as the California Athletic Commission would not license Barao to fight at 135 lbs, due to him missing weight before his fight with TJ Dillashaw 3 years ago. This is an interesting matchup that could go either way, but I have a lean on this from a betting perspective, but I don’t love either of this guys getting you 100+ DK points. 

Sterling is a very solid wrestler with a legit submission game. His striking is nothing to write home about. Sterling will want to try and get this one to the ground, the tough part about that situation is that Renan Barao is one of the best of all time at stuffing takedowns, and this is exactly what is going to happen often in this fight. Sterling getting frustrated because Barao’s defense is just too good. 

On the flip side, Barao was at one time of the best pound for pound fighters in the world, but as of late he has not shown the killer instinct with his fists like he used to. Since McGregor’s KO, and Dillashaw’s war, Barao has seemed to become more cautious with his striking attacks, and that’s not a great recipe to score a lot of DK points. If Sterling can’t this one to the ground, then Barao should win by decision, but I don’t think he’ll rack up many points in this decision victory. Barao’s path to victory lies in him stuffing takedowns, striking from the outside, and keeping this fight upright. The downside with have to focus on stuffing takedowns is that you aren’t gaining any points of your own when stuffing them, and you probably aren’t going to look to take your opponent down in that situation either, limiting your weapons to score a lot of points. The winner of this fight probably won’t have more than 75 points, so I won’t be on this one too much, but I will have some exposure to Barao, as I think he wins outright. Go put some cash down on Barao at +105 and thank me later! 

 

PICK: Barao, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Barao (6/10): Good way to save some cap space. Not many “Live Dogs” on the card, so lates save the cash where we can. 

GPP: Barao (6.5/10): I think his ceiling is lowered due to this style matchup. Not huge exposure on him. 

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Ricardo Lamas

Vs.

Jason Knight

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

5

Record

20

2

8

3

UFC Record

4

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

105

Vegas Odds

-125

45%

% Fights to Dec

27%

377

Inside The Distance Prop

267

 

Snapshot: 

Fight #7 could be the show stealer of this card, as both these guys have a high pace, and are fun to watch. Knight is 10 years younger than Lamas (25 vs. 35), and has shown a penchant for winning fights that he doesn’t suppose to. He’s getting some respect here, as he is a slight favorite at -125 over the 11 fight UFC vet. I would expect this to be a pick ‘em, or Lamas a slight favorite, so I don’t think there is a ton of value from a betting perspective here. But we’re not betting here are we? We are trying to make the best damn DK Lineups possible, god damn it!

Knight racked up 4 significant wins in the last year, and made believers out of many of the doubters, me being one of them. He’s got 3 stoppages in the UFC, and his style is one that plays well with our DK lineups. He’s constantly pushing forward, and he’s willing to eat a punch to land two on his opponent. His chin and toughness are two of his best attributes, and he’s a very game competitor. He also has solid striking, and a very impressive ground game off his back. 

Lamas has been a long time elite fighter in the featherweight division, and he’ll be a significant test for Knight. Lamas has good hands, ok wrestling, and is on the downside of his career. He’s a smart fighter though, and very opportunistic when someone makes a mistake. I just think that time has past Lamas by, and the new breed, ala Jason Knight, is ready to takeover. 

I think this will be a Fight of the Night candidate, and the winner should score pretty handsomly within your DK lineups. I think Knight out points Lamas on the feet, and locks up a submission victory in the 2nd. I like Knight’s toughness, offensive game, and his salary is nice as well. 

 

PICK: Knight, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Knight (8/10): I like his chances of winning, and his price tag gives you some flexibility. 

GPP: Knight (9/10): Knight’s ceiling is very high, and his offensive style works nicely with the DK scoring system. 

 

Main Card

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Jimi Manuwa

Vs.

Volkan Oezdemir

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

2

Record

14

1

6

2

UFC Record

2

0

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

-170

Vegas Odds

150

5%

% Fights to Dec

20%

-107

Inside The Distance Prop

196

 

Snapshot: 

On to the main card! If you like guys who throw and knock people out, then make sure you watch this fight. British fighter, Jimi Manuwa, is coming off 3 top 10 victories, and 2 vicious, highlight reel KO’s over Ovince St. Preux and Corey Anderson in his last two fights. His 37 years old, but he’s been on a tear recently, and if he can win this fight in impressive fashion, then I think he could be very close to a title shot. If he loses this one, it will be very tough for a 37 year old fighter to climb back up the preverbal mountain. Manuwa currently stands as a -170 favorite with an $8,800 DK salary, while Volkan Oezdemir is carrying a +150 line and a $7,400 salary. 

This will be a fun one to watch, and I think someone will go to sleep in the cage. Oezdemir blast on to the scene with a surprise decision win over Top 5 fighter, Ovince St. Preux, and most recently, a very fluky KO victory over Top 5 fighter, Misha Cirkunov. He’s got solid kicks, and his boxing is pretty decent as well, but he’s never fought anyone with the power, and talent that Jimi Manuwa has, and ultimately, I think that will be the difference. 

By my numbers, I have Manuwa as the 2nd or 3rd best DFS option on the card, with a very high potential for a knock down, and a stoppage in the first, putting us near 120 DK points, and that’s what we are hunting for. I think Manuwa will be too much for the Swiss fighter who is 10 years younger than the Brit. Gets some of Manuwa and thank me later. Oh, his Inside the Distance prop is nice as well! 

 

PICK: Manuwa, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Manuwa (8.5/10): Very highly likelihood of winning, and has an incredibly high ceiling. Love it! 

GPP: Manuwa (9/10): Yup, I’ll have a good amount of exposure to Manuwa. 

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Robbie Lawler

Vs.

Donald Cerrone

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

27

11

Record

32

8

12

5

UFC Record

19

5

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,500

DK Salary

$7,700

-155

Vegas Odds

135

26%

% Fights to Dec

30%

163

Inside The Distance Prop

311

 

Snapshot: 

Man is this card stacked! THe next fight is one of the best of the night, as Donald “”Cowboy” Cerrone takes on former Champ Robbie Lawler in this 170 lb clash of two of the more exciting fighters in the division. Lawler comes in as the favorite at -155, sporting a salary of $8,500, while Cerrone counters with a +135 line, and a salary of $7,700. 

This is a great matchup, and should prove to be a stand up war between two incredibly tough, proven fighters in the Welterweight division! This one really could go either way, as they both are incredibly effective strikers, and have proven chins, although Lawler is coming off a KO loss to Woodley, so that could play a factor with his chin. 

Cerrone brings some of the most varied strikes in the cage, and will attack with vicious kicks, knees, and punches. He’s proven to have a chin over the years, but he is coming of an injury that pushed this fight out to this card. Will that play a factor? Only time will tell. 

I’m definitely targeting this fight when compiling my GPP lineups, as I think it will be high paced, with a lot of strikes landing on both sides. What it really comes down to is who can land that BIG strike first, and swarm to finish the fight inside the distance? It’s just as likely for Lawler to KO Cerrone than it is for Cerrone to KO Lawler, so not an easy fight to pick, but I like the value we are getting in Cerrone. My numbers have Cerrone as a very slight favorite, so I think we are getting some betting value with Cerrone, and is well worth a spot in our lineups. 

 

PICK: Cerrone, KO, 2nd

Cash Game: Cerrone (8/10): We need to have a few dogs in our LU, and Cerrone is one of the better Dog options on the card. 

GPP: Cerrone (8.5/10): He’ll save us some salary, and has a very high ceiling, but I do think he’ll be highly owned due to his popularity and slim dog options on this card, so be aware. 

Lawler (7/10): I still will have some exposure to Lawler in GPP’s, just not a ton. 

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Cris Cyborg

Vs.

Tonya Evinger

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

1

Record

19

5

2

0

UFC Record

0

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,600

DK Salary

$6,600

-1375

Vegas Odds

900

11%

% Fights to Dec

21%

-660

Inside The Distance Prop

1131

 

Snapshot: 

Not to much to write here. Pretty simple: Cyborg is the most vicious fighter in any division in MMA, and she will not let this one go more than 3 or 4 minutes before winning by TKO. I’m going to have a hell of a lot of exposure to Cyborg because of the way that I’ve lined up some of my dog picks, and you should too. She’s a lock for 120+ DK points, and you’re going to want some of that action. Who cares if her salary is $9,600! You see those odds? That’s not a typo. -1375 is the real line! Haha! 

 

PICK: Cyborg, Vicious KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Cyborg (10/10): Won’t lose and will score 120 pts. 

GPP: Cyborg (10/10): Stupid high ceiling that’s almost guaranteed. Lock it up! 

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Tyron Woodley

Vs.

Demian Maia

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

3

Record

25

6

7

2

UFC Record

19

6

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,700

DK Salary

$7,500

-210

Vegas Odds

175

40%

% Fights to Dec

48%

-113

Inside The Distance Prop

249

 

Snapshot:  

This is a Welterweight Championship fight between Tyron Woodley who is a -210 favorite against Damian Maia, the Brazilian BJJ ace who comes in as a +175 under dog. 

Woodley has incredible power in his hands, and his also a solid wrestler. He put Robbie Lawler to sleep back June of 2016, and has since fought Stephen Thompson twice, once to a draw, and the 2nd to a decision victory. He’s very athletic, has great takedown defense, and is incredibly dangerous to stand in front of, especially if you are a BJJ ace with mediocre striking defense. 

But this is MMA, and anything can happen. If Maia can get this to the ground, then he has a very real chance at pulling off the big upset here, as his ground game is probably the best in the game, regardless of organization or division. Maia usually finds away to get his opponents back, sinks in a choke, and it’s sleepy time! But each round starts with both fighters on their feet, and it’s up to Maia to press the action, smother Woodley, get a trip, and then work his BJJ. But that is much easier said than done. 

Woodley is an accomplished wrestler and has a 91% takedown defense, while Maia is only successful with his takedowns 31% of the time. That is not a good recipe for a guy who wants to get this fight to the ground. I foresee Woodley have his way with Maia, stuffing takedowns left and right, and eventually TKO’ing Maia in the 1st or 2nd round to score just over 100 points. His $8,700 price tag isn’t too bad either, so I’ll definitely have some exposure to Woodley, as I think he’s in the 100’s with this win. By my numbers, Woodley is the 3rd best DK option on the card. I will put Maia in a few contrarian LU’s, but that’s about it. 

 

PICK: Woodley, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:  Woodley (9/10): I think Woodley is an appealing cash play due to his odds of victory, high ceiling, and reasonable salary. 

GPP: Woodley (8/10): He’s worth rostering, but sneak Maia in a contrarian GPP lineup just in case. 

 

Fight #:

12

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Daniel Cormier

Vs.

Jon Jones

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

19

1

Record

22

0

8

1

UFC Record

16

1

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

220

Vegas Odds

-260

40%

% Fights to Dec

32%

440

Inside The Distance Prop

255

 

Snapshot: 

Here we go! The fight we’ve all been waiting to happen. The bitter rivalry that has grown around these fighters is a spectacle to watch from afar, and you can honestly feel the hatred that these men have for each other. There first fight had Jones handling Cormier pretty easily, but Jones has been away for over a year, serving a ban by USADA for failing a drug test. 

Stylistically, this is a tough matchup for Cormier, as Jones is much longer, athletic, and just an overall better fighter. Jones’ inactivity is a little concerning, but I do think he’s a pretty safe play on this card. The tough part to judge, is how many points will Jones score in a 5 round decision victory? What, maybe 100 points if we’re lucky. Yes, it’s a 5 round affair, but if Cormier can keep Jones from taking him down, then it may be tough to rack up over 100 pts. Do I think Jones can finish Cormier, yes, but it is unlikely. He’s a tough grinding wrestler who knows how to weather a storm, and you know damn well that whoever is reffing this one is going to give Cormier every opportunity to escape difficult positions and situations. 

I don’t foresee a scenario where Cormier can win this fight. It’s just a really difficult matchup for him, and Jones has proven that he can wrestle with Cormier, and even out wrestle him if he needs to. Cormier isn’t an overly crafty or powerful striker, so I don’t foresee Jones getting caught and knocked out either. This could be a long night for Cormier, but I am hesitant to go too heavy on Jones due the potential for a decision victory that doesn’t score more than a 100 DK points, and that would hurt. We get better opportunities to get 100+ points with Woodley, Manuwa, and Knight than we do with Jones. Food for thought.   

 

PICK: Jones, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game:  Jones (8/10): Will win, but his ceiling isn’t incredibly high based on the stylistic matchup. 

GPP: Jones (7.5/10): I think we may have better options than Jones for 100+ points, and he is going to be very highly owned, so I’ve tampered my ranking on him. 

Cormier (6.5/10): I’ll have a Cormier contrarian GPP lineup. 

 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Jason Knight

$8,100

2

Jimi Manuwa

$8,800

3

Jon Jones

$8,900

4

Tyron Woodley

$8,700

5

Renan Barao

$7,800

6

Donald Cerrone

$7,700

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Jason Knight

$8,100

2

Jimi Manuwa

$8,800

3

Tyron Woodley

$8,700

4

Renan Barao

$7,800

5

Cris Cyborg

$9,600

6

Calvin Kattar

$7,000

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Jason Knight

$8,100

2

Jimi Manuwa

$8,800

3

Tyron Woodley

$8,700

4

Donald Cerrone

$7,700

5

Cris Cyborg

$9,600

6

Calvin Kattar

$7,000

 

 GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Jason Knight

$8,100

2

Tyron Woodley

$8,700

3

Donald Cerrone

$7,700

4

Cris Cyborg

$9,600

5

Calvin Kattar

$7,000

6

Jon Jones

$8,900