UFC Fight Night 113

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Leslie Smith

Vs.

Amanda Oliveira de Lemos

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

7

Record

6

0

3

3

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-175

Vegas Odds

155

63%

% Fights to Dec

0%

0

Inside The Distance Prop

0

Snapshot:

Let’s get this straight - Leslie Smith likes a war! If she had her way every time, her fights would be bloody, lengthy, and a battle that will challenge your heart. Smith has balls…...wait…..she has….the female equivelent of balls. Whatever that may be. Her record isn’t impressive, but the fact that she’ll fight anyone that the UFC puts in front of her is only emphasized by her opponenet 2 fights ago - Cyborg. By now, most casual MMA fans have heard of of Cyborg as being the most dangerous female fighter on the planet, and Leslie Smith welcomed her with open arms to the UFC back in May of 2016, eventually losing by TKO 1:21 into the 1st round.

Smith isn’t scared, and her heart often makes up for what she lacks in physical talent. She is very robotic in her striking, but she will continue to press forward, unphased by strikes that she may take while pushing forward. Id Smith has her way, she’ll drag her opponent into depp waters, challenging the heart, and chin of her opponent, regardless of who stands across from her.

Now you give Smith a 5 inch height advantage, and Octagon experience that her opponent, Amanda Lemos, does not have, and you have a fight that has Smith as a -200 favorite while sporting an $8,400 DraftKings salary.

Lemos throws some power shots, but they are loopy, and pretty easy to detect. If Smith can implement her typical gameplan, press forward, and turn this into a war, then I think she’ll have a very good chance to win. I think the -200 Vegas line is pretty accurate, and I think there may be some value in the $8,400 DK salary. Why value? Well, Smith has a 6.81 Significant Strikes per Minute landed, which is very high, and only 2nd to one other fighter’s stat on the card. We love seeing a high output striker who has a tendency to press forward, dictate the pace of the fight, and also facing an opponent who is making their UFC debut. All of these things add up to a great DFS opportunity. I don’t think this one will be finished within the final bell, but Smith has a high enough output to makeup for the fact that 63% of her fights end by way of decision. I like Smith, and I think she’ll be one of my wildcards, as I think her ownership will be low, and her ceiling is high - a combination we like to see!

 

PICK: Smith, Decision, Unanimous                                              

Cash Game: Smith (7/10): I think she wins on guts and experience. Her output is high enough to roster. Could be a fighter the surprises many with her impressive point scoring at the end of the night.

GPP: Smith (8/10): Bold call here, but I love her output, heart, and low ownership! Throw in that her salary is reasonable, and I could see her being a big sleeper on this card from a DFS perspective!

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Albert Morales

Vs.

Brett Johns

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

1

Record

13

0

1

1

UFC Record

1

0

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$6,900

DK Salary

$9,300

320

Vegas Odds

-390

25%

% Fights to Dec

54%

0

Inside The Distance Prop

0

Snapshot:

Brett Johns tallied 11 takedowns in his UFC debut back in November of 2016. With DraftKings new”ish” scoring system, wrestlers have become very valuable. If you aren’t completely aware of the scoring changes that were made, DK increased their takedowns to 5 points, ground advances to 3 points, and striking knockdowns to 10 points. These changes made wrestlers much more valuable than they once were, and some may argue, more valuable than they should be, but regardless, we need to now target the unknown wrestler much more than we used to, and that’s where we find Brett Johns.

Any fighter that scored 11 takedowns in a single fight needs to be on our target list. Add on to that the fact that Johns is a -390 favorite over Albert Morales, and you have a fighter you need to keep an eye on. These two fighters have seen 6 of their last 9 combined wins go to a decision, and under the old scoring system that would be a negative, but under the new scoring system it isn’t uncommon to see fighters who win via decision rack up more points than other fighters who won via stoppage.

The downside to rostering Brett Johns: he is the highest priced fighter on the card at $9,300. I think Johns has one of the highest ceilings on the card, but you also run the risk of having other lower priced fighters scoring more points than Johns at the end of the night. I’m gambling on the fact that Morales is not very effective when it comes to stuffing the takedowns, and Johns is relentless when it comes to his chain wrestling. It’s a recipe for disaster. The real question becomes, will Johns be able to score enough points to justify rostering his $9,300 salary? In GPP I think you need to have a heavy dose of him within your rosters, and I also think he is a very good option in Cash games too, but don’t be completely shocked if he doesn’t score 110+ points like his salary calls for.

 PICK: Johns, Decision, Unanimous                                 

Cash Game: Johns (7.5/10): Love his odds of winning, and he has a high ceiling, but his high salary is a negative we must consider.

GPP: Johns (8.5/10): HIgh ceiling is one that we need to have a nice piece of, but you need to make room for his salary if you want a piece of him.

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Danny Henry

Vs.

Daniel Teymur

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

6

0

Record

6

0

0

0

UFC Record

0

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,200

DK Salary

$9,000

180

Vegas Odds

-220

0%

% Fights to Dec

0%

0

Inside The Distance Prop

0

Snapshot:

Danny Henry brings in his 6-0 record with his $7,200 salary versus Daniel Teymur with his 6-0 record and $9,000 salary. Teymur also is a solid -220 favorite in Vegas’ eyes. These are both two newcomers to the UFC, and there isn’t much video or info out there on Henry, but from what I’ve heard, he’d like to get this fight to the ground and work his magic there. I have a feeling that this one will stay on the feet, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding this one.

This is a fight I will not be investing heavily on, as there are just too many question marks surrounding this one. It will be tough for Teymur to match his $9,000 salary, so my best advice would be to move on and select fighters that you have more confidence in.

 

PICK: Teymur, TKO, 2nd                                         

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

                                                           

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Charlie Ward

Vs.

Galore Bofando

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

3

2

Record

4

0

0

1

UFC Record

0

0

3

2

Record Last 5

4

0

$7,600

DK Salary

$8,600

180

Vegas Odds

-220

40%

% Fights to Dec

25%

0

Inside The Distance Prop

0

 

Snapshot:

Here’s another fight that doesn’t have much data behind it. Charlie Ward is only 3-2, and one of his victories was unfortunately a TKO victory that took the life of Joao Carvalho last year. Besides that fight, there really isn’t that much out there on Ward. Same goes for Galore Bofando, who hasn’t fought in more than two years. Same principals should be applied to this fight as the last - I wouldn’t invest much time, effort, or roster spots on either of these fighters due to the unknown associated with them. I have a feeling that Ward will grind out a decision victory here that will not generate very many points, so I don’t think this is one we want to spend too much time on. Moving on…..

 

PICK: Ward, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: N/A

GPP: N/A

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Alexandre Pantoja

Vs.

Neil Seery

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

2

Record

16

11

1

0

UFC Record

3

3

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-350

Vegas Odds

290

37%

% Fights to Dec

33%

188

Inside The Distance Prop

675

Snapshot:

In the 6th fight of the night Alenxandre Pantoja, who is 17-2, takes on Neil Seery, who garnishes a 16-11 record. Seery is a crafty vet who was scheduled twice to fight Ian McCall twice, but had both fights scrapped - the first due to McCall falling ill during weight cutting, and the 2nd due to a death in the Seery family. Seery is very good at exposing the weaknesses of his opponents, but he finds himself struggling with foes who are technically superior than him, especially on the ground. Unfortunately for Seery, Pantoja is a very solid ground fighter who often has his way on the ground. He has solid top control, and can make it a very long night for someone who isn’t very technical on the ground, and I think this is what we’ll witness in this fistacuffs.

Pantoja has won 10 fights in a row, and was the top pick on the 24th season of TUF before falling in the semi-finals against Hiromasa Ogikubo. He went on to redeem himself on the TUF 24 finale, beating Eric Shelton for his 10th victory in a row. He also brings a -350 line into this contest with Seery, and has a $9,000 salary to boot. I think there is some value here in Pantoja, as the -350 line is pretty solid, and the $9k salary leaves some room for other high priced fighters on your roster.

 

PICK: Pantoja, Decision, Unanimous       

Cash Game: Pantoja (7.5/10): I like his odds of winning, and he has a pretty high floor, which is what we like to see in Cash games.

GPP: Pantoja (8.5/10): HIgh price tag puts a damper on him, but I think his game lines up nicely for a high output, high scoring affair. I will have some exposure to Pantoja.

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Danny Roberts

Vs.

Bobby Nash

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

2

Record

8

2

2

1

UFC Record

0

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-200

Vegas Odds

170

20%

% Fights to Dec

20%

159

Inside The Distance Prop

262

Snapshot:

England’s Danny Roberts comes into the cage with a 13-2 record, but coming off a brutal KO loss to “Platinum” Mike Perry. Subsequently, Bobby Nash is also coming off a KO loss, so the real question becomes on whether these KO losses will linger for either fighter?

Roberts will stand and bang, and Nash will want to rely on his wrestling acumen, and work to get this fight to the ground. Both of these guys have an Inside the Distance prop that is middle of the pack, and ultimately in DraftKings you’d like to target fighters that either have a high Inside the Distance prop, or have a very high offensive output. When considering offensive output, not only do you have to look at Strike Landed per Minute, but you’ll want to consider how many takedowns and submission attempts they produce within their fights.

I like Roberts in this situation here, as his striking may produce a healthy DK point total while giving Nash fits on the feet. Roberts’ $9,100 salary and -200 Vegas line isn’t as good as the combination that Pantoja brings to the table, but I will have some exposure to Roberts. I do think that Nash is a Live Dog here though, so I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Nash pulled out an upset here, but if he does, it most likely will be via a decision, and a low-scoring one at that. My numbers have Roberts as a Top 5 option on the card, but again, there is an element of risk with Nash being a Live Dog here if he can get the fight to the ground and control Roberts with heavy top position.

 

PICK:  Roberts, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Roberts (6.5/10): I like his chances of winning, but doesn’t have the highest ceiling in the world, and has a low floor, as Nash may pull out an upset.

GPP: Roberts (6/10): As mentioned previously, a low ceiling is not what you are looking for in GPP.  

GPP: Nash (7/10): I like Nash more in GPP’s, as he is a Live Dog, and can save you some serious salary space.                                                

Main Card

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

250

James Mulheron

Vs.

Justin Willis

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

1

Record

4

1

0

0

UFC Record

0

0

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,500

DK Salary

$8,700

175

Vegas Odds

-210

42%

% Fights to Dec

20%

318

Inside The Distance Prop

106

Snapshot:

Justin WIllis is an AKA product out of California, and he’s making his UFC debut against Englishmen, James Mulheron, who brings in an 11-1 record. This HeavyWeight fight will be one that I’m targeting when it comes to value when you look at potential scoring versus salary.

Willis has very good wrestling, and has great power in his hands as well. Willis typically comes out and presses the fight at the sound of the opening bell. His Inside the Distance prop currently stands at +106, which is top 5 on the card, while Mulheron’s Inside the DIstance prop stands at +318. When you have a HeavyWeight with an Inside the Distance prop of more than +250, then you should be looking elswhere, as Heavyweights who take the fight the distance typically do not score very well from a DraftKings perspective. If you can remember watching a sloppy Heavyweight contest that went to a decision, you’ll most likely remember how inactive the fighters were, and how uninteresting the fight was to watch. That is the big risk with this one, because if Willis doesn’t go out and stop Mulheron within the 1st frame, then I could see this one dragging on to a decision that generates very few points from a DK perspective.

With that being said, I do really like Willis in this spot, as I think he has the superior camp, superior training partners, and will have a very big size advantage that should allow him to control the fight, and end it within the first round. I will have a nice dosing of Willis in my LU’s, but I am warning you now, this one could get sloppy, and if Willis gases, and this fight goes the distance, then you will not want to have him on your rosters.

PICK: Willis, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Willis (9/10): I think his odds of winning combined with his potential point output and DK salary make for an attractive target here in both formats.

GPP:  Willis (9/10): I like his potential to stop this one early due to his size and wrestling advantage, but there is an outside chance this one goes the distance if Willis gases early, and then he could kill your GPP victory chances.

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Paul Craig

Vs.

Khalil Rountree

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

9

1

Record

5

2

1

1

UFC Record

1

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,700

DK Salary

$8,500

185

Vegas Odds

-225

0%

% Fights to Dec

43%

190

Inside The Distance Prop

-144

Snapshot:

This is the classic striker versus grappler matchup, as are many of the matchups on this card. Khalil Rountree has some of the heaviest hands in the game, but his ground game is embarrassing. Craig has a solid ground game, and honestly, this fight could go either way. I don’t think this line is accurate, as I think it should be closer to a coinflip based on the experiences of these two fighters. Can Craig get the fight to the ground? That is the big question. If he can, then he’ll win, and will win quickly. If he can’t then look for Rountree to end this one violently and quickly.

I like Craig’s value here, as his $7,700 salary is appealing when you look at his odds of victory. If it should be closer to a con flip, then his salary should be closer to $8,200, so I think there is some value in Criag’s salary. Rountree can put anyone to sleep if he can keep the fight standing, but that is a big “IF”. In this particular matchup, I think Rountree will be able to keep the fight standing, as Craig hasn’t shown us that he has the best wrestling, and is able to get fight’s to the ground at will. This will be exposed, and Rountree will end up putting Craig to sleep in the 1st with another highlight real KO. Yes, there is value in Craig’s salary, so he is a play when it comes to GPP’s, but my gut tells me that Rountree is the side you want to be on for this matchup.

 

PICK: Rountree, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Rountree (7.5/10): Has a high ceiling, but also a high-ish salary. Needs to keep the fight standing.

GPP: Rountree (8/10): Very high ceiling with his heavy hands, but there is definitely some value in Craig’s salary.  

GPP: Craig (7/10): A Live Dog here with some value in his salary. If he wins, he’ll be on the winning GPP LU.

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Jack Marshman

Vs.

Ryan Janes

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

6

Record

10

2

1

1

UFC Record

1

1

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-470

Vegas Odds

375

19%

% Fights to Dec

25%

-145

Inside The Distance Prop

507

Snapshot:

Marshman comes in as the biggest favorite on the card at -470, and has a $9,200 salary. Marshman has some serious striking skills, but Janes has some skills on the ground. Can Janes get this fight to the ground? I don’t think so.

Marshman will want to keep the distance, work his superior striking, and stuff any takedowns that are thrown his way. THe striking advantage between these two is the biggest gap on the card, and Janes striking defense is awful. This is a great recipe for Marshman, as he may score a knockdown or two, which is the best case scenario in DK scoring. If Janes gets a hold of Marshman, then this could be an interesting fight, but I don’t think Marshman will allow this to happen.

Marshman has the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -145, and because of this and the matchup, I think he’ll also be the highest owned fighter in GPP’s. I really like Marshman here, and I will have him rostered in many of my GPP LU’s, and most likely a few of my Cash LU’s as well. There is a small risk of him getting taken down and submitted, but I think it is so small that it is well worth the risk in rostering Marshman. My numbers have Marshman as the top rated DFS fighter on the card with all things considered.

 

PICK: Marshman, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Marshman (8.5/10): Very high ceiling with his awesome striking skills.

GPP: Marshman (9/10): I like his high ceiling, and I’m willing to pay for his potential point output in this matchup. He will be highly owned though, and that is the only reason he isn’t a 10/10 rank.                                                    

                                                          

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Steven Ray

Vs.

Paul Felder

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

6

Record

13

3

5

1

UFC Record

5

3

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

-135

Vegas Odds

115

33%

% Fights to Dec

38%

340

Inside The Distance Prop

430

 

Snapshot: 

I love this fight! Best matchup on the card, as both of these guys are high level strikers, and should be a hell of a fight to watch! Felder has shown some very impressive combinations that he has thrown at his opponents in his past fights. This one opened as a pick ‘em, but there has been some money coming in on Ray, pushing the line in his direction.

I think Felder is the better striker here, but his wrestling game is almost non-existent. Ray at least has some skills on the ground, and may try and mix up his output, and get the fight to the ground to impress the judges.

They both have an $8,100 price tag, and I think this one will be targeted by many out there in GPP’s, from both angles. This could be an example of two high-level strikers getting together, and their defensive striking abilities almost cancel out the other’s offensive striking abilities, making it for a somewhat low scoring DK affair. This is a tough one to predict, and it may be one I fade for the most part, as I don’t have a great read on how this one will end, and I think both of these guys will be fairly popular on many rosters.

Both of these guys have poor Inside the DIstance prop odds, which typically means you’ll need to score points through takedowns, and transitions on the ground. Unfortunately, neither one of these fighters is very well versed on the ground, so I don’t think there will be many points generated through that medium. SO if they aren’t going to score points by ending the fight early, and they aren’t going to rack up points by getting takedowns and transitions, then how will the points be earned? Good question, and a good reason to fade this fight which should be very interesting to watch as a fight fan.

 

PICK: Felder, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Felder (5/10): Don’t love it, but I may have a little exposure to both guys.

GPP: Felder/Ray (5.5/10): Again, read above on my thoughts here. Looking to fade this one for the most part. Let everyone else not earn points by rostering these two.

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Joanne Calderwood

Vs.

Cynthia Calvillo

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

11

2

Record

5

0

3

2

UFC Record

2

0

3

2

Record Last 5

5

0

$7,400

DK Salary

$8,800

175

Vegas Odds

-210

46%

% Fights to Dec

20%

325

Inside The Distance Prop

105

Snapshot:

Calvillo has some serious wrestling skills, but she will be traveling to the homeland of Calderwood, so this could play a factor. Calvillo trains out of Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, so she will be well prepared, and will have a gas tank for days.

Calderwood is a very good striker, and I think she has a better shot at winning than her +175 line currently shows. If Calderwood can keep this fight standing, then I think she’ll win this fight. With that being said, I think Calderwood is a Live Dog here, so there is definitely some value in her line, and he DK salary of $7,400.

Calvillo has very good wrestling, and in this weight class you will see a high level of output, both on the feet, and on the ground. If she gets the fight to the ground, then look for many passes, and a solid amount of DK points generated. This is a fight that I’ll have some exposure to on both sides from a GPP perspective, and I think you’ll see a very popular fighter in Calderwood, as you can save some salary cap space, and give yourself a solid chance at winning outright with the Live Dog in Calderwood.

 

PICK: Cavillo, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Cavillo (8/10): I think she has a high ceiling, and a fairly good shot at winning this one, but there is a threat with Calderwood fighting at home.

GPP:  Cavillo (7.5/10): I like her potential to score a lot of points, but she also could lose. You run the risk of rostering her, but I don’t think she’ll be incredibly popular, which we like.

GPP: Calderwood (7/10): A Live Dog is one that we like in GPP’s!             

 

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

170

Gunnar Nelson

Vs.

Santiago Ponzinibbio

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

16

2

Record

24

3

7

2

UFC Record

6

2

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,900

DK Salary

$7,300

-160

Vegas Odds

140

17%

% Fights to Dec

22%

-105

Inside The Distance Prop

187

Snapshot:

I really like this matchup! Nelson is a -160 favorite with an $8,900 salary, while Ponzinibbio (I’ll call him The Ponz from now on) brings in a +140 line and a $7,300 salary. This is a very big step up in competition for The Ponz, while Nelson brings in a 16-2 record with his resume of fighting some of the best in the game.

Nelson’s Inside the Distance prop is at a surprising -105, which is one of the better ITD props on the card. I think this is a little too high, in my opinion. Keep in mind, this is a 5 round affair, so it is more appealing from a DK perspective.

The Ponz has some serious skills on the feet, but Nelson is one of the best grapplers in his division, so again, a classic grappler versus striker matchup. I think the line should be closer to a pcik ‘em, so I think there is some value in Ponz’s salary and odds, so I’ll have some exposure to him in GPP’s. Another Live Dog here in Ponz! I also think you could stack this one in Cash games too, so don’t sleep on that strategy.

PICK:  Nelson, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Nelson (7/10): I his chances of winning, but Ponz definitely is a Live Dog in this one, so you need to temper your love for Nelson in GPP’s.

GPP: Nelson (7/10): He has a high ceiling, but also a very low floor if Ponz can keep this fight standing.

GPP: Ponz (8/10): I think he’ll be popular in GPP’s in order to save some salary for many people. If he gets taken down, then it could be an early exit for him, but if he keeps this fight standing, then he may have the best potential value on the card.               

 

Optimal Lineup

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

G. Nelson

$8,900

2

Ponzinibbio

$7,300

3

Willis

$8,700

4

Marshman

$9,200

5

Calderwood

$7,400

6

Rountree

$8,500

 

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Rountree

$8,500

2

Nash

$7,100

3

Marshman

$9,200

4

Ponzinibbio

$7,300

5

Willis

$8,700

6

Pantoja

$9,000

                       

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Marshman

$9,200

2

Rountree

$8,500

3

Nash

$7,100

4

Pantoja

$9,000

5

Calderwood

$7,400

6

Willis

$8,700

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Marshman

$9,200

2

Carville

$8,800

3

Henry

$7,200

4

Rountree

$8,500

5

Pantoja

$9,000

6

Nash

$7,100