On this Memorial Day weekend, we find ourselves in the rare position of having a UFC card on a Sunday. This definitely will not be a day of rest for these fighters. The UFC travels to Stockholm, Sweden for this 12 fight affair, which has the main event of Alexander Gustafsson taking on the veteran Glover Teixeira. This card seems like a letdown after the awesome card that we had for UFC 211, but we need to look on the brighter side of things, as there are a few solid matchups on the UFC Fight Night 109 card.

From a DraftKings perspective this was a tough one to handicap, and to find creative ways to get the high priced fighters in my LU’s that I wanted. With 7 of the 24 fighters having a salary of $9,000 or more, it meant that you had to roster three fighters that had salaries under $8k in order to get 3 of these 7 top end fighters in your lineup. In order to properly put together effective lineups, I pretty much had to use Trevor Smith in everyone, as he is only priced at $7,300, and has a very realistic shot at beating Chris Camozzi. This is a gamble, but probably the best gamble on the card when you are looking for an underdog to pull out a victory for you.

Also, the first half of the card (the undercard) has a large number of fights that I think will go to decision. Before DraftKings revamped their MMA pricing structure a decision victory was almost looked at as a failure, as these fighters typically would not score that high. With the change in the scoring system, it has increased the value of these decision winning fighters, as there are more opportunities to rack up DK points outside of how quickly your fighters were able to win their fights (and hopefully not go to a decision). This scoring adjustment has been a welcome change, as we are now seeing ground fighters, and fighters winning by decision, often scoring 100 points or more.

Without further adieu, let’s take a look at a preview of each fight, as well as my optimal lineups for Cash games and GPP’s. Good luck, and let’s make it rain!

Undercard

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Marcin Held

Vs.

Damir Hadzovic

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

22

6

Record

10

3

0

2

UFC Record

0

1

2

3

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,600

DK Salary

$6,600

-350

Vegas Odds

290

39%

% Fights to Dec

31%

2

# of UFC Fights

1

 
Snapshot:

Poland’s Marcin Held takes on Bosnia’s Damir Hadzovic, and it’s a matchup of the highest and lowest salaries on the card. Held is coming off a very controversial loss to Joe Lauzon back in January. Held lost a split decision to Lauzon, but anyone who watched that fight knows that Marcin Held won it. The media on MMADecisions.com had the fight 14-1 for Held. It was one of the worst robberies I’ve ever seen in the Octagon. I like Joe Lauzon, but Marcin Held was in shape, aggressive, improved, and not fighting in Mexico City, like he was in his UFC debut where he gassed against Diego Sanchez.

Held will be the stronger fighter against the cage, and on the ground, and that’s where I expect this fight to mostly take place. Held is much more skilled on the ground, and he looked very good against Lauzon. Keep in mind that this will be his 3rd UFC fight, and they are fighting close to his homeland of Poland, in Sweden. I suspect he’ll have a much easier commute to the fight, and he’ll be very comfortable with the UFC stage. He’s a big -360 favorite, and Held will cost you $9,600 in your lineup, so you’re going to have to pay for him. Unfortunately, Held often fights to a decision, and I suspect that’s how this battle ends up as well, and when you’re paying $9,600 for one of your six fighters, you’re going to want a higher upside than what Held brings to the cage. Tough one to roster, but I like him in some Cash game lineups.

PICK: Marcin Held, Dec, Unan

Cash Game:   Held (7/10): He’s a lock for a W, but his ceiling is low. He’s worth a presence in your cash game LU’s.

GPP: Held (5/10): He’s expensive, and has a low ceiling. Not a good combination for GPP’s.

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Darren Till

Vs.

Jessin Ayari

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

13

Record

16

3

1

0

UFC Record

1

0

5

0

Record Last 5

5

0

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-325

Vegas Odds

265

15%

% Fights to Dec

26%

1

# of UFC Fights

1

Snapshot:

Undefeated Darren Till hasn’t fought in 582 days, and on Sunday he finally gets to quench his thirst for blood and violence, as he takes on German, Jessin Ayari, who has won his last 7 fights dating back to November of 2013. Till’s a big favorite currently standing at -325, and has a DK salary of $9,000, so he’ll cost you if you want to roster him.

Till’s a solid young southpaw with a lot of potential. Ayari has been on a great run, but his chin is below average, and his striking isn’t anywhere near as refined as Till’s is. Till was a big underdog going into his fight with Nicolas Dalby, but he fought a great first two rounds, and then injured his shoulder and lost the 3rd and final round 10-8, tallying a draw from the judges. Tough pill to swallow, but a statement from Till that he’s ready to compete with the elite in the Welterweight division.

I really like Till here for a quick stoppage, so I’ll be rostering him in many of my GPP’s, and Cash game lineups.

PICK: Darren Till, TKO, 1st

Cash Game: Till (9/10): I think Till is too strong in every facet of the game. High likelihood of victory here, and that’s what you want in a Cash game fighter, especially when they are $9,000+.

GPP: Till (8/10) I like him in GPP’s too, as I think he’ll win in quick fashion, but his salary does hold him back from being ranked higher.

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Nicholas Musoke

Vs.

Bojan Velickovic

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

4

Record

14

4

3

2

UFC Record

1

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,500

DK Salary

$7,700

-140

Vegas Odds

120

41%

% Fights to Dec

39%

5

# of UFC Fights

2

 

Snapshot:

Talking about layoffs, Nicholas Musoke hasn’t fought in 28 months! That’s more than 2 years for you math majors. Sweden’s Musoke has gone 2-2 in his last 4 UFC fights, and all 4 of those fights have gone to decision. Watching his previous fights, he just doesn’t seem to throw with fight-ending intentions. It’s a technical, measured pace. Never getting himself too deep into the pocket. Musoke’s strength is definitely his kicks. He throws kicks to the body with impressive power, and it’s his way of keeping the fight at a distance that he’s comfortable with. Musoke is a lanky striker who would rather keep things on the outside. His last fight he lost a unanimous decision to Albert Tumenov. In that fight Musoke got bloody and battered, and taken into deep waters, but he battled through it, and continued to compete. Musoke continued to throw kicks and punches, and absorb strikes of his own, all while his nose was busted up and he was swallowing a lot of blood. This fight took place in January of 2015!! Ring rust has to be a concern here, but with Musoke’s style - a technical, plodding style - it isn’t one that would be greatly affected by poor cardio, or just general ring rust.

Bojan Velickovic brings his 1-1-1 UFC record into this contest, and the Serbian hasn’t been overly impressive recently. The guys a physical specimen, but he seems to take a more tactical approach when it comes to his striking. 4 of his last 5 fights have gone to a decision, and with these two styles matching up, I foresee this one going the distance. This is one I’ll be avoiding from a GPP and Cash game perspective. I just don’t see enough certainty of victory or upside scoring from either one of these guys, so I’ll be on the sideline for this one.

PICK: Musoke, Dec, Unan

Cash Game: Nope, not enough certainty of victory.

GPP: Upside isn’t high enough.

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Reza Madadi

Vs.

Joaquim Silva

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

5

Record

9

0

3

3

UFC Record

2

0

2

3

Record Last 5

5

3

$7,500

DK Salary

$8,700

160

Vegas Odds

-185

44%

% Fights to Dec

11%

6

# of UFC Fights

2

 

Snapshot:

In the 4th fight of the evening, Iranian born wrestler, Reza Madadi, takes on the explosive Brazilian, Joaquim Silva. Silva has rattled off 9 straight wins to start his pro MMA career, and he has stopped 4 out of the last 5 losers in the 1st round. He knows how to end fights quickly, just like he did to Andrew Holbrook in his last fight in the UFC cage, taking a KO victory in a mere :34 seconds into the 1st round.

Medadi fights out of Stockholm, Sweden, so he’ll have a big advantage with not having to travel halfway across the world to fist fight another man, like Silva has to. This advantage gets canceled out as soon as you take into consideration that Medadi is taking this fight as a replacement on less than 2 weeks notice. Usually not a good sign, but Medadi did just fight back in March, so he may not have been out of shape from that camp yet.

Silva is almost a 2:1 favorite (-185), and I think a good amount of that advantage in the line is there because of the fact that Madadi is taking this fight on such short notice, but he doesn’t have to travel, and he just had a fight a little over two months ago, so consider this when analyzing this fight. Madadi is 13-5 in his career, and his 5 loses have all come by the way of a decision, and I suspect that will most likely happen again in this fight.

I suspect that this fight will pan out similar to how the Norman Parke/Reza Madadi fight did. Parke was able to stuff the takedowns from the Iranian wrestler, and with the fight taking place on the feet, Parke took advantage of the big advantage that he had on the feet. I think that Silva will be able to stuff Madadi’s takedown attempts due to his size advantage, and you have to believe that Madadi’s takedowns attempts will weaken as the fight goes on with his gas tank possibly being in question. Silva should be able to land the strikes he needs to in order to sway the judges, but I don’t foresee him finishing Reza Madadi and his iron chin. The way that this fight takes place, and the most likely outcome being a decision victory, I just don’t see much value here.

PICK: Joaquim Silva, Dec, Unan

Cash Game: Silva (7/10): I like Silva to win this one, but you’ll have to pay $8,700 to get him in your lineup, so he better win!

GPP: Silva (6.5/10): With Silva’s past of quick, vicious finishes, you have to at least throw a bone and put him on a few GPP LU’s. He’s got a high salary for a big question mark of a finish, and not a ton of activity on the feet.

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Trevor Smith

Vs.

Chris Camozzi

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

7

Record

24

12

4

4

UFC Record

9

9

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

205

Vegas Odds

-245

29%

% Fights to Dec

44%

8

# of UFC Fights

18

 

Snapshot:

The 5th fight on the card pits two vets of the cage. Chris Camozzi, and Trevor Smith have a combined 26 fights in the UFC cage between them, and both of them may be in a position where if they lose they’ll be finding a new organization to fight in. This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, whereas, Smith wants to drag this one to the ground where he can out wrestle Camozzi, and use his superior positioning to keep the fight in his domain.

Camozzi is a solid striker, but doesn’t poses much in the way of power that has fight ending intentions behind it. He’d prefer to use a bevy of low-kicks combined with straight punches that find their mark. He’s not one to “wow” you with his power, so I would think that this one will go to the judges.

This could be a very poor matchup for Camozzi, as he only stops 59% of takedowns attempted on him, and this is exactly what Smith will be working for the entire fight - aggressive takedowns. If Camozzi doesn’t bring his “A” game in stuffing the takedown attempts of Smith, then he’ll be in for a long night on his back, eating punches, elbows, and hammerfists for 3 rounds. Smith could easily steal this one, and as a +205 underdog, I like his chances as a “Live Dog” on this card. He also has a salary of only $7,300, so he may be a good source for you to save some salary space, and possible garnish your roster with an underdog win that nets him 70-80 points in a decision victory. I could see Smith threatening the 100 point mark if Camozzi finds a way to stand up, and Smith must attack and get multiple takedowns per round. With DK’s newer MMA scoring system rewarding more points for takedowns and positional advancements on the ground, Smith could end up surprising us, and eclipsing the 100 point mark, but odds still point to him scoring around 70-80 points if he pulls off the decision victory.

PICK: Trevor Smith, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Smith (7/10): Not a guarantee he’ll win here, so I only put him at a 7, but his salary is attractive when comparing to his realistic odds of winning this fight. This could be Chris Camozzi’s last fight in the UFC if Trevor Smith has anything to say about it.

GPP: Smith (8.5/10): I like Smith more in a GPP format, as he’ll save you some serious salary cap space, and as you know, you need to pick 2-3 underdogs that win on each UFC card, and have them in your GPP LU’s in order to take down a 1st place, and that’s what we’re always shooting for. I think he’ll have a low enough ownership %, and combine that with his $7,300 salary, and this stylistic matchup, and I like Smith to surprise some people.

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Pedro Munhoz

Vs.

Damian Stasiak

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

2

Record

10

3

3

2

UFC Record

2

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,500

DK Salary

$6,700

-650

Vegas Odds

475

33%

% Fights to Dec

38%

5

# of UFC Fights

3

 

Snapshot:

Fight #6 has Pedro Munhoz as a big -650 favorite over Damian Stasiak. This line seems a little too aggressive for this matchup, but we don’t care about Vegas line, right? We only care about DK salaries. Unfortunately, Munhoz’s salary of $9,500 mirrors the Vegas line. You’ll have to pay to roster Munhoz.

Munhoz is a BJJ black belt who has an aggressive submission grappling game, while Damian Stasiak has an aggressive wrestling game, and likes to work from his guard. I don’t think that Stasiak will want to play with the ground game in this fight though, as Munhoz is on another level than him. Stasiak has a sloppyish striking game, and I think it’s one that Munhoz will be able to walk through in order to get this fight to the ground. Munhoz is also a much more active striker, compiling 3.93 Strikes Landed per Minute versus Stasiak’s .86 SLpM. This alone should tell you who to focus on from a DFS perspective.

Munhoz has one of the highest salaries on the card, and for good reason, as I suspect he’ll get this fight to the ground, and will submit Stasiak within the first 2 rounds, most likely locking up a 100+ scoring night for him and his owners. Both fighters are coming off the biggest wins of their pro MMA careers, and with Munhoz finding a way to lock up a submission victory over the very tough Justin Scoggins in his last fight, I just think his momentum and skill are too much for Stasiak.

PICK: Pedro Munhoz, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Munhoz (7.5/10): High likelihood of victory is a big plus in Cash games, but the monster salary isn’t going to help. Not a bad Cash play though.

GPP: Munhoz (6.5/10): I like his ability to finish, but Stasiak is a tough, gritty fighter, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this one went to a decision, which we wouldn’t be rooting for if we rostered him with his salary.

 

Main Card

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Jack Hermansson

Vs.

Alex Nicholson

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

15

3

Record

7

3

1

1

UFC Record

1

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-115

Vegas Odds

-105

22%

% Fights to Dec

20%

2

# of UFC Fights

3

 

Snapshot:

Now here’s a matchup that could bring some fireworks! Jack Hermansson, bringing his 15-3 record into the UFC cage Sunday, fights out of Sweden, so he won’t have to travel far for this dual. Alex Nicholson on the other hand will be traveling in from Florida to face Hermansson in front of his home crowd.

Both of these guys have similar styles, as they will look to keep it on the feet and put a beating on their foe with kicks and punches. Hermansson would be the only one in this fight that would possible look for a takedown, and I honestly don’t think that will happen. Both fighters are very active with their striking with Hermansson landing 4.6 Strikes per Minute, and Nicholson averaging 4.39 Strikes per Minute. The one difference between these two when it comes to their striking is that Hermansson has a very alert defensive striking game, switching angles often, and using his feet to get himself out of the pocket, and out of striking range. Nicholson on the other hand would rather stand right in front of you and bang, preferring to see who falls first. This defensive difference is highlighted by Hermansson only absorbing 2.12 Strikes per Minute (one of the best ratios on the card), while Nicholson absorbs 4.13 Strikes per Minute. Nicholson doesn’t use angles enough, and too often keeps his head on the centerline.

What Nicholson lacks in defensive striking awareness, he makes up for in toughness, and his desire to compete. This is Nicholson’s wild card, per se, because if he can make this a slugfest with both fighters throwing a lot of strikes, and landing a lot, then I think he can turn this in to the war that he wants, but this will be a challenge with Hermansson’s ability to dart in and out of the pocket. Both men have impressive chins, and I could see this one going the distance, or ending within the first two rounds due to a TKO.  

Haermansson has a slightly higher salary at $8,300 versus Nicholson’s $7,900. Regardless of the salaries, I foresee the winner of this contest piling up over 100 points for your roster because they’ll either win by TKO in the first 2 rounds, or they’ll land plenty of strikes and win be decision.

PICK: Hermansson, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Hermansson (7.5/10): Victory isn’t a guarantee, but I like his salary, and his ability to avoid damage on the feet.

Nicholson (6/10): Coin flip from a victory standpoint, but has the ability to grind out a victory and put up a lot of points.

GPP: Hermansson (7.5/10): I like the salary, upside, and he should be fairly low owned.

Nicholson (7/10): I think I’ll have some exposure to both these guys in my GPP’s. I like the low salary, and upside here.

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Oliver Enkamp

Vs.

Nordine Taleb

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

0

Record

12

4

0

0

UFC Record

4

2

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$6,800

DK Salary

$9,400

425

Vegas Odds

-550

29%

% Fights to Dec

50%

0

# of UFC Fights

6

 

Snapshot:

In the 2nd fight on the main card we have TriStar Gym’s Nordine Taleb, taking on Sweden’s own Oliver Enkamp. Enkamp took this fight on about two weeks notice, when he stepped up to replace the inured Emil Weber Meek. This short notice fight will most likely hurt Enkamp’s chances of winning, and combine the short notice with this also being his UFC debut, then you have a double whammy!

Taleb is a big Welterweight, and he will definitely have the size advantage over Enkamp, who usually fights at Lightweight, but obviously was going to take this opportunity to break into the biggest MMA organization in the world. Enkamp is a karate based fighter that is pretty inexperienced from a pro MMA perspective. While Taleb is at the point in his career where he has fought much better competition, and is approaching his peak years as a fighter under the tutledge of Firas Zahabi in Montreal, Canada.

Taleb is a rangy fighter who likes to use leg kicks to setup his hands. His boxing is crisp, accurate, but not overly powerful, so I wouldn’t necessarily count on a stoppage win for Taleb here. As you can see, Taleb is a big favorite in Vegas’ eyes (-550), and his DK salary is also pretty steep at $9,400, so you’ll have to pay for his services. Taleb’s size advantage will also aid him if the fight hits the ground, or is played against the cage, so I really think that wherever this fight takes place, Taleb will have a big advantage. The question becomes, can he stop the Swede and prevent a decision victory? Regardless, I think he’ll be a 100+ scorer after this fight is all said and done.

PICK: Nordine Taleb, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Taleb (8.5/10): I definitely see a victory for Taleb, and a solid night scoring as well. You just have to pay for him.

GPP: Taleb (8/10): The upside is pretty solid with Taleb, as he’ll land his strikes, and rack up the points, but he will be highly owned.

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Abdul Razak Alhassan

Vs.

Omari Akhmedov

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

0

Record

16

4

1

0

UFC Record

4

3

5

0

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,100

DK Salary

$7,100

-260

Vegas Odds

220

0%

% Fights to Dec

20%

1

# of UFC Fights

7

 

Snapshot:

The 3rd main card fight pits the judoka, Abdul Razak Alhassan against strong Russian, Omari Akhmedov. Alhassan made his UFC debut last November in impressive fashion, KO’ing Charlie Ward in the 1st round of their contest. Alhassan is 7-0 in his pro MMA career with 7 1st round KO’s, making him an impressively dangerous striker in the Welterweight division. He hasn’t fought a very deep lineup of competitors, and Akhmedov will most surely be the toughest test of his young MMA career.

Akhmedov is a very experienced fighter with more than 20 pro MMA bouts under his belt. He is very strong in the clinch, can throw heavy hands, and can be tough to deal with on the ground if he gets top position. On the downside, Akhmedov has been KO’ed in 2 of his last 3 fights he’s competed in, and this could be just the recipe that Alhassan needs to continue his streak of 1st round KO’s.

Alhassan will want to work to keep this fight standing, and use his quickness and explosive power to stifle the veteran Russian. If Akhmedov can obtain a clinch early, and drag this fight to the ground, then he’ll have a chance at victory, as he’ll undoubtedly bring Alhassan to deep waters that he’s never been in before in an MMA fight, and who knows what happens when a young fighter is faced with something like that.

We have never seen Alhassan’s takedown defense, or ground game, as he has gone past the 3:00 minute mark in any of his pro MMA fights to date. With Akhmedov having a questionable chin, and below average speed and defense, I don’t foresee him avoiding the lethal power that Alhassan brings to the cage, and therefore falls to the American by KO in the 1st round, continuing Alhassan’s streak of 1st round KO’s.

PICK: Alhassan, KO, 1st

Cash Game: Alhassan (8.5/10): They only thing that stops me from ranking him a 9 or higher is his lack of high level competition that he has faced. How will he react if Akhmedov gets this fight to the ground.

GPP: Alhassan (8/10): I like his ability to end this fight quickly and viciously. I’d say the only issue he has is that he ends his fights too quickly, and doesn’t get a chance to rack up striking points before getting his victory points in the 1st round.

Akhmedov (6/10): I may have some exposure to Akhmedov, as he has an attractive salary, and will be fairly low owned. If he is able to drag Alhassan into deep waters, and you have him rostered on your GPP LU, then you’ll be pleasantly surprised, and in position to take home some serious cake. Worth the risk in my eyes.

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Ben Saunders

Vs.

Peter Sobotta

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

21

7

Record

16

5

8

4

UFC Record

4

3

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,400

DK Salary

$7,800

-120

Vegas Odds

100

29%

% Fights to Dec

24%

12

# of UFC Fights

7

 

Snapshot:

The next fight is one that I am most excited to watch on the card. Two UFC veterans who have unique games, big hearts, and love to compete. America’s Ben Saunders is a slight favorite over Germany’s Peter Sobotta.

Sobotta is coming off of a huge win over Nicolas Dalby back in September of last year. His striking has improved drastically over the past few years, and his capabilities on the ground have never been in question. He’s a grinder who can make the toughest competition uncomfortable in the cage.

Ben Saunders on the other hand is predominantly a Muay Thai specialist who likes to use his knees and elbows when in the clinch to bust up his opponents. Saunders has a freakishly large frame at 6’3”, and will most likely want to transition between fighting from distance to fighting in the clinch quickly and aggressively. If he get stuck in between, Sobotta will be able to land his pinpoint striking that he displayed versus Dalby.

This fight is pretty much a pick ‘em from a Vegas perspective, and DK has their salaries at $8,400 (Saunders), and $7,800 (Sobotta). This is a very difficult fight to handicap, as I’ve seen Saunders look like a potential title contender in the past, but I’ve also seen him drastically underperform in fights as well. Much of this is a result of his mental stet of mind during his training camps. It will be difficult to tell which Ben Saunders steps into the cage on Sunday, and you may want to watch the weigh-ins on Saturday to see if he gives anything away with the way that he looks, or his body language. If Saunders brings his “A” game, and implements his attacks correctly, this could be a long night for Sobotta, as Saunders’ knees are some of the best in the game.

If Sobotta does get clenched against the cage, then he will have to quickly get out of harm’s way, and avoid taking damage. Easier said than done. If Sobotta can land his measured jab at will, and then find a way to get Saunders to the ground and maintain top position, then I think he’ll fair very well, and win by decision, but I don’t think his DK points will be overwhelming. Like I said, this is the toughest fight on the card to handicap, and could really go either way, so proceed with caution.

PICK: Sobotta, Decision, Unanimous

Cash Game: Sobotta (6.5/10): Not a guaranteed victory, but has a nice salary.

GPP: Sobotta (7/10): I think he won’t be to highly owned, and his salary allows you to roster some of the higher priced fighters on the card. His upside is somewhat limited, and this is what is keeping his ranking low. Saunders will be tough to finish.

Saunders (6/10): I may have some exposure to Saunders, as he has some serious upside with the way he can throw his kicks, elbows, and knees. He could easily stop this one before the final bell.

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Misha Cirkunov

Vs.

Volkan Oezdemir

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

2

Record

13

1

4

0

UFC Record

1

0

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,300

DK Salary

$6,900

-420

Vegas Odds

335

13%

% Fights to Dec

21%

4

# of UFC Fights

1

 

Snapshot:  

The co-main event of the evening has Misha Cirkunov and his 4-0 UFC record facing off against Volkan Oezdemir, who is 1-0 in the UFC with his sole victory coming over a stagnant Ovince St. Preux.

Cirkunov is the real deal and his salary tells you this at $9,300. He has effective striking that can both be dished out as the aggressor, or as a counter-striker. On the ground he is a BJJ black belt, and has 7 victories by submission. Cirkunov has rattled off 8 wins in a row, and has won 12 of his last 13 fights, and I don’t expect this streak to change at all this weekend. Cirkunov has the all-around skill to be a champion some day, and he has plenty of time to do that, as he is still only 30 years old.

Oezdemir has a price tag of $6,900, and is a pretty big underdog at +335. He’s not a bad fighter by any means, but Cirkunov’s skills are just on another level, and it will be quickly evident once this fight starts. Cirkunov has one of the best odds to finish the fight inside the distance at -161, and I think that’s exactly what we’ll see – a finish in the first 2 rounds. I have Cirkunov ranked as the 2nd best DraftKings based fighter on the card, with Alhassan slightly edging him out.

PICK: Cirkunov, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game: Cirkunov (9/10): I really like Cirkunov in this position when it comes to rostering him on my Cash game lineup. I think he’s in for an easy 100+ scoring night, and he’ll be the center piece of many Cash game lineups. He’s pricy, but worth it.

GPP: Cirkunov: (8/10): He’ll be in many of my GPP LU’s as well, as he has high upside, and will most likely score over 100+ points, but on the downside, he will be highly owned, and has a high price tag.

 

Fight #:

12

5 Rounds

Weight:

205

Alexander Gustafsson

Vs.

Glover Teixeira

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

17

4

Record

26

5

9

4

UFC Record

9

3

2

3

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,200

DK Salary

$7,000

-330

Vegas Odds

270

29%

% Fights to Dec

23%

13

# of UFC Fights

12

Snapshot:

This now takes us to the main event of the evening, which pits Sweden’s hometown boy, Alexander Gustafsson against 12 fight UFC veteran, Glover Teixeira. Both fighters are coming off poor performances where they squeeked out wins, and they’ll want to make a statement with this fight that they are still on top of their games.

Teixeira has always been knocking at the door of title contention, but his vicious KO loss to Anthony Johnson put things into perspective. At 37 years old Teixeira’s best days are behind him, but he still has the ability to stop almost anyone in his division. One part of his game that has faded quickly is his defensive striking. His head movement has slowed in recent fights, and he has been easily hittable. This is not a characteristic that you want Gustafsson exposing.

Gustafsson on the other hand is a very talented boxer, and has also proven to be a dman good wrestler as well. The Swede has stopped an incredible 86% of takedown attempts, and what makes this number even crazier is that he has fought both Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier, both very good wrestlers. If Teixeira was hoping to out-wrestle the Swede, then he may have another thing coming.

Inevidtably, Gustafsson will try to keep his distance and use his superior reach advantage to hammer the Brazilian with jabs, crosses, and uppercuts from both hands. If Gustafsson can keep the distance, and stifle Teixeira with jabs as he tries to get within striking range, then I think he’ll have a relatively easy time pulling out the victory by TKO, as I think Teixeira’s chin has started to fade as well. If Teixeira wants to give himself any chance of winning, he will want to try and strike from within the pocket, and transition the fight to ground with a takedown once he’s stunned the Swede with a few punches. Much easier said then done, but I think if he can get the fight to the ground he can smother Gustafsson enough, and grind out a victory, and even possibly a submission victory.

PICK: Gustafsson, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game: Gustafsson (8/10): Pretty good chance he’ll win, but his salary is on the high side at $9,200, and Teixeira will be dangerous until he retires.

GPP: Gustafsson (8.5/10): The 5 round fight always makes this an almost must play, but I do think he has a nice upside with his advantage at range when striking. His ownership will be high, and his salary is also a little steep, so you must fight through these issues to roster him on your GPP lineup.

 

Optimal Lineups

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Misha Cirkunov

$9,300

2

Darren Till

$9,000

3

Razak Alhassan

$9,100

4

Trevor Smith

$7,300

5

Peter Sobotta

$7,800

6

Reza Madadi

$7,500

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Misha Cirkunov

$9,300

2

Nordine Taleb

$9,400

3

Darren Till

$9,000

4

Trevor Smith

$7,300

5

Peter Sobotta

$7,800

6

Omari Akhmedov

$7,100

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Alexander Gustafsson

$9,200

2

Trevor Smith

$7,300

3

Misha Cirkunov

$9,300

4

Razak Alhassan

$9,100

5

Reza Madadi

$7,500

6

Omari Akhmedov

$7,100

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Peter Sobotta

$7,800

2

Misha Cirkunov

$9,300

3

Trevor Smith

$7,300

4

Darren Till

$9,000

5

Alex Nicholson

$7,900

6

Joaquim Silva

$8,700