Another weekend approaches, and another UFC is upon us. The UFC visits Kansas City for its 24th installment of its production on Fox, and broadcast free to the masses across America. The headline pits the ever-dominant Demetrius Johnson against dangerous Brazilian, Wilson Reis. This will be Johnson’s 10th title defense, and he is the only champion in the UFC to hold the 125-pound title. Johnson is a big -900 Vegas favorite, so I wouldn’t expect much to change Saturday night in the 125-pound division, but the bout should be an exciting one nonetheless.

This is a 13-fight card that doesn’t give us many opportunities to select fighters under the $8,300 DraftKings average that actually have a chance at winning their bouts. This makes it even more important to find those one or two upsets on the card, or to find that loser who will score 40-50 points.

Last week, the inaugural UFC preview article on FantasyAlarm.com was highly successful, and I hope you all took my advice and used my optimal lineups, as they produced over 500 points, which is a great night for DFS MMA! You would have won pretty much every cash game you competed in, and you would have also cashed pretty highly in most GPP’s as well. With that being said, these previews take many hours to put together, so take advantage, and use this column as a template, in conjunction with your own research, to put together competitive lineups and take home that ever-elusive DFS cash! Enjoy! Card tips off at 4:00 PM EST on Saturday afternoon. Without further ado, here’s a quick preview of the card, along with my optimal lineup recommendations.

 

Undercard

 

Fight #:

1

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Ketlen Vieira

Vs.

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

0

Record

5

1

1

0

UFC Record

2

1

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,700

DK Salary

$8,500

160

Vegas Odds

-185

29%

% Fights to Dec

33%

1

# of UFC Fights

3

 
Snapshot:

I’m not loving this matchup as it pertains to DraftKings, and the potential for either of these women to score, and to score well. Evans-Smith has a grinding, wrestling style that doesn’t lend itself to a very heavy scoring day. Vieira has a very questionable gas tank, and that often means the 2nd and 3rd rounds can be very boring to watch, and will limit the amount of scoring opportunities. Long story short here…..very little interest from a DFS perspective. Move on!

 

 PICK: Evans-Smith, Decision

Cash Game:  Neither are appealing to me

GPP: They will both be very low owned, and that’s the only positive from a GPP perspective when it comes to this matchup. I would avoid both in GPP’s also.

 

Fight #:

2

3 Rounds

Weight:

170

Nathan Coy

Vs.

Zak Cummings

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

15

6

Record

20

5

1

1

UFC Record

5

2

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$6,800

DK Salary

$9,400

350

Vegas Odds

-440

48%

% Fights to Dec

32%

2

# of UFC Fights

7

 
Snapshot:

This is a fight that I will be targeting from a DFS perspective. Zak Cummings is a 7 fight UFC veteran is a mid-level fighter, but Coy is not at the same level as Cummings. Cummings is a big -440 Vegas favorite, and his odds to win this fight within the distance is -165, which is one of the best odds on the card. Cummings is powerful on the feet, and Coy has not shown much of a chin. I also see Cummings as being the favorite if this fight hits the mat as well. My numbers have Cummings as one of the top 4 highest potential scoring fighters on the card, and this is the main reason why I’ll be targeting Cummings in all formats on Saturday night. His price is pretty steep at $9,400, but I think he could be one of the highest scoring fighters on the card, and I think he’s worth the price tag!

 

 PICK: Cummings, TKO, 1st

Cash Game:  Cummings (9/10): I think this is almost a guaranteed win. Not much risk here, but you’ll pay for him!

GPP: Cummings (8/10): Again, very high upside on points, but his ownership level will be very high.

 

Fight #:

3

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Anthony Smith

Vs.

Andrew Sanchez

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

25

Record

9

2

2

2

UFC Record

2

0

4

1

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,300

DK Salary

$8,900

265

Vegas Odds

-325

8%

% Fights to Dec

27%

4

# of UFC Fights

2

 
Snapshot:

Anthony Smith vs. Andrew Sanchez is an interesting matchup that will have Sanchez getting overlooked by many DFS’ers. Sanchez is a 4 time All-American wrestler, and Anthony Smith has very bad takedown defense. This is the perfect recipe for Sanchez to take control of this fight, and beat and batter Smith on the ground. I have a little bit of interest in Smith in GPP’s just because he does have an outside chance of KO’ing Sanchez if the fight stays standing. But I really don’t think that is where this fight takes place. Sanchez will get this fight to the ground, will rack up points through takedowns, positional advancements, and strikes on the ground. I think Sanchez will be a nice sleeper pick, and is a good opportunity to get a solid fighter with a high chance of victory for under $9k, and that is very rare on this card.

 

PICK: Sanchez, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Sanchez (7.5/10): High odds for victory, with a solid shot at racking up some points!

GPP: Sanchez (7/10): I like Sanchez because he should be low owned, but his upside is somewhat limited.

Smith (6/10): I am only throwing Smith here because he has an outside chance of winning quickly on the feet via TKO, his ownership will be low, and his price tag is very attractive. I’ll have a small spattering of Smith in my GPP LU’s.

 

Fight #:

4

3 Rounds

Weight:

205

Devin Clark

Vs.

Jake Collier

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

7

1

Record

10

3

1

1

UFC Record

2

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,300

DK Salary

$7,900

-145

Vegas Odds

125

38%

% Fights to Dec

15%

2

# of UFC Fights

4

 
Snapshot:

This is an interesting fight that his two mid-level tough guys that have salaries between $7,900 and $8,300. You will have to target at least one or two guys in this price range in order to keep your salaries under the $50k total. Clark is a very good wrestler who will look to get this fight to the ground and grind out a victory. Clark has been KO’ed by some weak punches before, so his chin is highly questionable. Collier is an incredibly tough, grinder, and this makes him fun to watch. He isn’t very flashy, but he has an impressive ability to take a beating, compete, and come back and fight to the end. I don’t foresee this fight being relevant from a Cash perspective, as either guy could win this fight. I think Collier is a solid target when it comes to GPP’s due to Clark’s chin, but I’ll also have a little bit of exposure to Clark as well. Either way, not feeling great about either guy here, but not targeting them at all in Cash, and small exposure in GPP’s.

 

PICK: Clark, TKO, 2nd

Cash Game: Avoiding both, as either could win, and you want to have confident winners in your Cash LU’s.

GPP: Collier (5.5/10): A grinder who has a chance of winning due to Clark’s weak chin. I’ll have a little exposure.

Clark (6.5/10): Similar to Collier’s analysis above, Collier’s chin is somewhat weak, which gives me an opportunity to roster Clark in some GPP’s.

 

Fight #:

5

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Aljamain Sterling

Vs.

Augusto Mendes

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

12

2

Record

6

1

4

2

UFC Record

1

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$8,800

DK Salary

$7,400

-250

Vegas Odds

210

43%

% Fights to Dec

14%

6

# of UFC Fights

2

 
Snapshot:

Take a look at Sterling’s percentage of fights that go to decision. 43%! Yup, that’s high. Sterling is not an aggressive fighter, and likes to go to decision. This often makes very boring fights, and fights that do not rack up many DK points. This is one to avoid in all formats. Move along…...next!!

 

PICK:   Sterling, Decision

Cash Game:  Avoid

GPP: Avoid

 

Fight #:

6

3 Rounds

Weight:

125

Tim Elliott

Vs.

Louis Smolka

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

13

7

Record

11

3

2

5

UFC Record

5

3

3

2

Record Last 5

3

2

$9,000

DK Salary

$7,200

-260

Vegas Odds

220

45%

% Fights to Dec

29%

7

# of UFC Fights

8

 
Snapshot:

I like Tim Elliott as a fighter, but his gas tank makes me question selecting him in my LU’s. Smolka was on an impressive 4 fight win streak, and then they asked him to step up and fight some better competition. Since then he’s lost both of his UFC fights. Elliott is a pressure fighter who likes to control the pace of the fight. He was impressive in his title fight versus DJ, but ended up on the losing end. I think this loss will give him some serious confidence, and will promote Elliott pushing the fight to another level, and a pace that Smolka will not be prepared, or be able to handle. I foresee Elliott pressuring the fight, and this often means that a lot of points will be accumulated. I can see Elliott winning this one by decision and racking up 100+ points, but I could also see him locking up a submission in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, and definitely secure a 100+ night. I don’t think he will be highly owned either, so a great fighter to target. I like him in both Cash and GPP formats.

 

PICK:   Elliott, Submission, 2nd

Cash Game:  Elliott (8.5/10): Elliott’s pressure will test Smolka, and combine that with a renewed confidence in his game, and Smolka coming off 2 losses, I think Elliott is the play here.

GPP: Elliott (8/10): Low ownership, and high upside - what else do you want in a GPP fighter?

 

Fight #:

7

3 Rounds

Weight:

155

Bobby Green

Vs.

Rashid Magomedov

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

23

7

Record

10

2

4

2

UFC Record

4

1

3

2

Record Last 5

4

1

$7,100

DK Salary

$9,100

305

Vegas Odds

-365

30%

% Fights to Dec

25%

6

# of UFC Fights

5

 
Snapshot:

Another fight that I don’t have a lot of confidence in. Green has had a long layoff, and is coming off a few loses. He is a very frustrating fighter to watch, and he is incredibly inconsistent, and inconsistency is the devil when it comes to creating DFS rosters. Magomedov is a very powerful wrestler who should be able to control Green, but I don’t think he’ll rack up a ton of points in this contest. Magomedov is a very technical striker, and I do see a situation where he could KO Green, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in this happening. This will be a slower-paced fight that will have the winner being in the middle of the pack in terms of total points scored. If Green can get in Magomedov’s head, which is highly unlikely, then he has an outside chance of winning…...a very outside chance! I like many other fighters on this card besides these two guys.

 

PICK:   Magomedov, Decision

Cash Game:  Magomedov (6/10): High odds of victory, but low upside. Better options out there.

GPP: Neither due to low ceilings.

 

Fight #:

8

3 Rounds

Weight:

135

Tom Duquesnoy

Vs.

Patrick Williams

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

1

Record

8

4

0

0

UFC Record

1

1

5

0

Record Last 5

3

0

$9,300

DK Salary

$6,900

-485

Vegas Odds

385

20%

% Fights to Dec

17%

0

# of UFC Fights

2

 
Snapshot:

Now here’s a fighter I really like. Tom Duquesnoy is a Frenchmen who has a very impressive striking game. Patrick Williams is not very good, and is in for a long night! He is a decent wrestler, but I don’t foresee him controlling this fight. This one is Duquesnoy’s fight to lose, and I foresee him doing it in impressive fashion via punches and kicks! Look for Williams to gas himself out after a few minutes, and then the Frenchmen viciously ends this one in the 1st or early in the 2nd round. Duquesnoy has the best odds on the card to finish inside the distance (-269), and I think he executes on this. I’ll be targeting him in all formats, and he should be an almost lock to score 100+ points!

 

PICK:   Duquesnoy, KO, 1st

Cash Game:  Duquesnoy (9.5/10): Yup, this will be vicious and an almost guarantee!

GPP: Duquesnoy (8/10): He will be highly owned, but you some of that 100+ points in your tournaments!

 

Main Card

 

Fight #:

9

3 Rounds

Weight:

263

Roy Nelson

Vs.

Alexander Volkov

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

22

13

Record

27

6

9

9

UFC Record

1

0

2

3

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,100

DK Salary

$8,100

120

Vegas Odds

-140

40%

% Fights to Dec

27%

18

# of UFC Fights

1

 
Snapshot:

This is an interesting HW matchup, and one that may go to a decision, which is somewhat rare for the HW’s. If Volkov wins, he’ll do it by decision. If Nelson wins, I think he does it by KO in the first 2 rounds. I’ll probably avoid this one from a Cash game perspective, and have a little bit of Nelson in some of my GPP lineups in case he does secure that early round KO.

 

PICK:   Volkov, Decision

Cash Game: Volkov (7/10): I think Volkov wins, but a wildcard. Not a ton of confidence.

GPP: Volkov (6/10): Again, if he wins, then probably by decision, and not likely to have a ton of points.

Nelson (6.5/10): If Nelson wins it will most likely be by KO, and get him 100+ points. This is a difficult fight to call though.

 

Fight #:

10

3 Rounds

Weight:

145

Jeremy Stephens

Vs.

Renato Moicano

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

13

Record

10

0

12

12

UFC Record

2

0

2

3

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,600

DK Salary

$7,600

-225

Vegas Odds

185

39%

% Fights to Dec

50%

24

# of UFC Fights

2

 
Snapshot:

Jeremy Stephens comes into this matchup with a wild, haymaker throwing style that can end a fight with one single punch. Moicano has pretty solid defense, and he is very crafty on the ground. I think Moicano has a legitimate chance at winning this fight, but his only chance at capturing victory is by getting this fight to the ground, and working for a submission. He could also win a decision if he can control Stephens on the ground and not lock up the submission. If Stephens can work his takedown defense, which is always a big question mark with the wild punches that he throws.I put my foot down on this one, and calling for an upset victory. Stephens has fought the best of the best, but I think his time has come and gone. I don’t see him having the motivation to trek to the top of the heap again.

 

PICK: Moicano, Sub, 2nd

Cash Game:  Moicano (5.5/10): Not loving this fight to target in cash games due to the fact that I’m picking an upset here and don’t have a lot of confidence in it. Good opportunity to save salary dollars though.

GPP: Moicano (7.5/10): If Moicano wins, it’s most likely on the ground by sub inside the distance, and these are all good things for GPP’s, especially his low ownership.

Stephens (6/10): An outside chance of landing that big KO punch and win quickly and violently.

 

Fight #:

11

3 Rounds

Weight:

185

Ronaldo Souza

Vs.

Robert Whittaker

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

24

4

Record

17

4

7

1

UFC Record

8

2

4

1

Record Last 5

5

0

$8,700

DK Salary

$7,500

-245

Vegas Odds

205

21%

% Fights to Dec

29%

8

# of UFC Fights

10

 
Snapshot: 

This is the fight that I am really looking forward to on this card! I love this matchup! I also love Whittaker and how he throws his hands. Souza is an absolute beast on the ground, and you can bet, if Souza can get this fight to the ground, then there is a high liklihood that he wins this one by submission. If Whittaker can sprawl and keep this fight standing, then I think there is a very good chance he can outstrike Souza, and either win by TKO or decision. I like Whittaker and the roll that he is on. His momentum will carry him to victory here! A big upset in my books, and it clears a lot of salary for your lineups.

 

PICK: Whittaker, Decision

Cash Game:  Whittaker (8/10): The fact he’s a dog, and has some awesome hands - I like him here. Big dog call, but nice salary saver!

GPP: Whittaker (8/10): Odds to win by KO are pretty high, and he has a great salary to save some cash!

Souza (7/10): I will have some exposure to Souza due to his low ownership, and potential to end the fight inside the distance.

 

Fight #:

12

3 Rounds

Weight:

115

Michelle Waterson

Vs.

Rose Namajunas

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

14

4

Record

5

3

2

0

UFC Record

3

2

4

1

Record Last 5

3

2

$8,000

DK Salary

$8,200

120

Vegas Odds

-140

17%

% Fights to Dec

38%

2

# of UFC Fights

5

 
Snapshot:

This is the toughest fight to call on the card by far. You can flip a coin on this one, so I’ll be avoiding it in most formats for the most part. I could see either Waterson or Thug Rose winning this one, and most likely by decision. Waterson is on a roll, and Thug Rose is coming off a lose, so that may be the difference in the fight. Regardless, this one is too tough to call, so I’ll definitely be avoiding it in Cash games, but I may have some exposure to both fighters in GPP, just because we need some fighters in this pricing category in our lineups to make them doable.

 

PICK: Tough fight to pick!!

Cash Game:  Avoid - I think this is a coin flip, and you want more confidence in your Cash game picks than this one. Very difficult to pick a winner here!

GPP: Waterson (6/10): Pick at your own risk

Namajunas (6/10): Pick at your own risk

 

Fight #:

13

5 Rounds

Weight:

125

Demetrious Johnson

Vs.

Wison Reis

Wins

Losses

 

Wins

Losses

25

2

Record

22

6

14

1

UFC Record

6

2

5

0

Record Last 5

4

1

$9,800

DK Salary

$6,400

-900

Vegas Odds

600

48%

% Fights to Dec

57%

15

# of UFC Fights

8

 
Snapshot:

DJ is entering the cage to defend his title for the 10th time! He is the most dominant pound for pound fighter on earth right now, and I don’t foresee anything changing during this fight. DJ will rack up 100+ points easily, which makes him very attractive to roster in all formats, but what makes him very difficult to roster is his massive salary. In one of my Cash lineups I am stacking DJ and Reis in order to make the numbers work, and I don’t think this is a bad strategy in Cash, but do not stack in GPP, as you’ll need 6 winners to take home any big GPP tourney. I foresee DJ winning this one and retaining his title again!

 

 PICK: DJ, TKO, 3rd

Cash Game:  DJ (8/10): Tough to roster, so a stack is necessary

Reis (6/10): Need the stack to get DJ in there.

GPP: DJ (7/10): If you can fit him in, do it, but there are some nice alternatives just under this price point.

 

Optimal Lineups

 

Cash 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Tim Elliott

$9,000

2

Tom Duquesnoy

$9,300

3

Robert Whittaker

$7,500

4

Renato Moicano

$7,600

5

Bobby Green

$7,100

6

Zak Cummings

$9,400

 

Cash 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Demtrius Johnson

$9,800

2

Tom Duquesnoy

$9,300

3

Robert Whittaker

$7,500

4

Renato Moicano

$7,600

5

Wilson Reis

$6,400

6

Zak Cummings

$9,400

 

GPP 1

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Roy Nelson

$8,100

2

Tom Duquesnoy

$9,300

3

Robert Whittaker

$7,500

4

Renato Moicano

$7,600

5

Michelle Waterson

$8,000

6

Zak Cummings

$9,400

 

GPP 2

Slot

Fighter

Salary

1

Andrew Sanchez

$8,900

2

Tom Duquesnoy

$9,300

3

Robert Whittaker

$7,500

4

Renato Moicano

$7,600

5

Louis Smolka

$7,200

6

Zak Cummings

$9,400