CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.18.2021 (3-Match)

*Today rounds out Group B play, and I think it is important to know the situations that each team is facing as it being the final matches to be played. Mousesports and FaZe have already been eliminated from Playoff contention. ENCE secured their playoff birth with a 2-0 sweep over Vitality yesterday and NiP also inched their playoff berth to basically solidified with late heroics to win against Mouse yesterday, as well. The only match today with major influence is Vitality vs NiP, as Vitality is in a must-win situation to even have a shot at advancing.

 

G2 (Ranked 11th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranke 19th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -240/Mouse +175

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event. Remember, Mouse has nothing to play for here other than for pride and a chance at a spoiler here as G2 is still looking to lock down the #1 seed for this Group play.

*G2 For Event (9 Maps): huNter 1.26 Rating, NiKo 1.14, AmaNEk 1.05, nexa 1.05, JaCkz 1.01.

*G2 For the Last Month of Play (19 Maps): huNter 1.20 Rating, NiKo 1.15, JaCkz 1.06, AmaNEk 1.01, nexa 1.01.

*Mouse For Event (10 Maps): ropz 1.29 Rating, frozen 1.09, acoR 1.03, dexter 0.93, Bymas 0.84.

*Mouse For Last Month of Play (14 Maps): ropz 1.18 Rating, frozen 1.03, acoR 0.97, dexter 0.90, Bymas 0.87.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams played a best of three match in November of 2021 with G2 winning a 2-1 decision.

*Top Performers for G2 (3 Maps): NiKo +12 K-D Diff, 1.25 Rating, 96.4 ADR. nexa +8 K-D Diff, 1.02 Rating, 65.7 ADR.

*Top Performers for Mouse (3 Maps): Bymas +3 K-D Diff, 1.04 Rating, 71.3 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for G2 and Overpass for Mouse. Believe we easily see Nuke for Mouse and Mirage for G2.

*G2 on Mirage (8 Maps): NiKo 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 85.5 ADR. huNter 1.17, JaCkz 1.03, nexa 0.99, AmaNEk 0.94. On Nuke (4 Maps): JaCkz 1.18 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 73.4 ADR. nexa 1.17, huNter 1.16, NiKo 1.00, AmaNEk 0.93.

*Mouse on Nuke (3 Maps): ropz 1.42 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.58 IMP, 93.7 ADR. frozen 1.12, acoR 1.06, Bymas 1.05, dexter 1.02, Karrigan 0.95. On Mirage (5 Maps): frozen 1.31 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 95.8 ADR. ropz 1.05, Karrigan 0.94, acoR 0.90, Bymas 0.83, dexter 0.78.

Analysis: G2 should be looking to end this one easily and quickly as they again are trying to lock down the 1-seed for the Group. Mouse have not played great at all for Pro League and are winless to boot. They allowed NiP to comeback yesterday after building a 6-8 round lead on the final map only to watch NiP win it 16-14. That’s majorly deflating as a team and can be to a team morale. Think G2 rolls here looking to lock down the top spot.

 

FaZe (Ranked 16th in World) @ ENCE (Ranked 28th in World)

Betting Odds: ENCE -130/FaZe -100

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125

*This is a best of three match for Group B In the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event. FaZe have already been eliminated from playoff contention, and ENCE are the only team in Group B that have lock down at least one of the three playoff spots. This match literally means nothing to FaZe and ENCE can make a run at the 1-seed in the even that G2 and NiP both lose today.

*FaZe For Event (9 Maps): broky 1.19 Rating, Twistzz 1.10, coldzera 1.05, rain 0.95, Karrigan 0.90.

*FaZe For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): broky 1.07 Rating, Twistzz 1.06, coldzera 0.96, rain 0.95, Karrigan 0.83.

*ENCE For Event (11 Maps): Spinx 1.09 Rating, Snappi 1.00, allu 0.96, doto 0.96, dycha 0.90.

*ENCE For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): Spinx 1.15 Rating, allu 1.00, Snappi 0.98, doto 0.98, dycha 0.97.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have not faced each other in recent memory.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Vertigo for FaZe and Inferno for ENCE. I believe we see Train for ENCE and Mirage for FaZe.

*ENCE on Train (2 Maps): Spinx 1.63 Rating, 1.02 KPR, 2.03 IMP, 102.6 ADR. allu 1.25, Snappi 1.17, dycah 1.04, doto 0.84. On Mirage (2 Maps): Spinx 1.17 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 82.2 ADR. Snappi 1.15, doto 1.01, dycha 0.77, allu 0.73.

*FaZe on Mirage (5 Maps): coldzera 1.18 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 83.0 ADR. Twistzz 1.17, broky 1.12, rain 0.94, Karrigan 0.87. On Train (2 Maps): Twistzz 0.82 Rating, 0.57 KPR, 0.55 IMP, 71.8 ADR. broky 0.80, rain 0.74, coldzera 0.69, Karrigan 0.66.

Analysis: Another match where it means a little something to one team (ENCE) and absolutely nothing to another (FaZe). ENCE will be looking for a win here, as this does allow them to make a run at the top seed. I believe that FaZe have not put it all together this Pro League, and its not just one person’s bad play only, the whole team has been sub-par. I think the maps are still a bit in favor or ENCE and they are playing extremely well in this Event. Give me ENCE, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see FaZe push one map, so it could easily end up going the distance, but I could also see a 2-0 by ENCE.

 

Vitality (Ranked 6th in World) @ NiP (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -165/NiP +125

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120

*This is a best of three match for Group B play in the ESL Pro League. As mentioned above, this match does have a lot at stake here. Vitality are in a must-win to keep their playoff hopes alive and NiP also are looking for a win to help with seeding, as they too still have a shot at top seed if it falls weirdly with ENCE losing and G2 losing somehow. (NiP have won three-straight by the way)

*Vitality For Event (9 Maps): ZywOo 1.34 Rating, shox 0.99, misutaaa 0.95, apEX 0.93, RpK 0.91.

*Vitality For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): zywOo 1.23 Rating, shox 0.96, apEX 0.96, misutaaa 0.94, RpK 0.93.

*NiP For Event (8 Maps): REZ 1.16 Rating, hampus 1.10, nawwk 1.09, Plopski 1.09, ztr 0.84.

*NiP For the Last Month of Play (17 Maps): REZ 1.10 Rating, Plopski 1.04, hampus 0.97, nawwk 0.93, ztr 0.82.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played several times over the last calendar year with Vitality winning 20 maps to NiP’s seven maps. Vitality has won the last four matches in a row, with three via the 2-0 sweep.

*Vitality vs NiP (26 Maps): ZywOo +150 K-D Diff, 1.36 K-D, 1.32 Rating. shox +104 K-D Diff, 1.25 K-D, 1.18 Rating (shox is labeled the NiP Killer, by the way – former team).

*NiP vs Vitality (26 Maps): REZ +11 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.07 Rating. nawwk +4 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.03 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Train for Vitality and Dust2 for NiP. Believe we see NiP go with Overpass and Vitality go with Vertigo.

*NiP on Overpass (10 Maps): Plopski 1.17 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 85.9 ADR. REZ 1.07, hampus 0.94, ztr 0.90, nawwk 0.89. On Vertigo (2 Maps): Plopski 1.03 Rating, 0.65 KPR, 0.92 IMP, 81.1 ADR. hampus 0.90, ztr 0.80, REZ 0.80, nawwk 0.70.

*Vitality On Vertigo (4 Maps): ZywOo 1.23 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 76.4 ADR. shox 1.12, RpK 0.97, apEX 0.97, misutaaa 0.80. On Overpass (5 Maps): ZywOo 1.17 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 77.1 ADR. shox 1.00, misutaaa 0.95, apEX 0.89, RpK 0.85.

Analysis: I know that Vitality is easily going to be the chalk on this slate, especially ZywOo. I will most definitely have some of him, but I think NiP is the way to go here as they will easily end up as leverage on the field. Both teams are playing for something here, so the pressure is on. NiP have played extremely well in Pro League play so far and almost let one slip yesterday against Mouse. Vitality have not looked good but did bounce back in match after their loss. I think this match is easily the best one today and we should see both teams battling hard. Vitality owns the series history but NiP easily has the better current form.

 

*TOP STACKS (Ranked in Order): G2, ENCE, NiP, Vitality

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: NiP

*TOP CPT PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): huNter, NiKo, Spinx, allu, Plopski, REZ, ZywOo, shox

*TOP FLEX PLAYS (Not Ranked in Order): nexa, AmaNEk, nawwk, Snappi, hampus, acoR