CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 3.17.2021 (3-Match)

G2 (Ranked 11th in World) @ FaZe (Ranked 16th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -130/FaZe +100

Map Odds:  2.5 Over -120/Under -110

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*G2 For Event (7 Maps): huNter 1.19 Rating, NiKo 1.14, nexa 1.08, AmaNEk 1.02, JaCkz 1.00.

*G2 For Last Month of Play (17 Maps): huNter 1.16 Rating, NiKo 1.15, nexa 1.02, JaCkz 1.07, AmaNEk 1.00.

*FaZe For Event (7 Maps): broky 1.20 Rating, Twistzz 1.08, coldzera 1.06, rain 1.00, Karrigan 0.95.

*FaZe For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): broky 1.06 Rating, Twistzz 1.04, rain 0.98, coldzera 0.96, Karrigan 0.84.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played six total times with them splitting three wins a piece. G2 swept their most recent meeting back at the IEM Beijing-Haidian 2020 Event with a 16-8 result on Mirage and a 19-17 OT win on Dust2.

*G2 vs FaZe (15 Maps): nexa +22 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.08 Rating. huNter +19 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.10 Rating.

*FaZe vs G2 (15 Maps): broky +43 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.13 Rating. Coldzera +43 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.14 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two maps to be banned for this match include Vertigo for FaZe and Overpass for G2. Believe we likely see Dust2 for G2 and Mirage for FaZe.

*G2 on Dust2 (4 Maps): NiKo 1.28 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 85.5 ADR. huNter 0.98, AmaNEk 0.97, nexa 0.87. On Mirage (8 Maps): NiKo 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 85.5 ADR. huNter 1.17, JaCkz 1.03, nexa 0.99, AmaNEk 0.94.

*FaZe on Mirage (7 Maps): coldzera 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 76.7 ADR. broky 1.03, Twistzz 1.00, karriga 0.94, rain 0.92. On Dust2 (5 Maps): broky 1.15 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 80.4 ADR. rain 1.08, coldzera 0.97, Twistzz 0.92, Karrigan 0.79.

Analysis: FaZe looked bad against NiP their last time out and G2 dropped a close one to ENCE. We get NiKo against his former team round 2 here and fell like there is definitely some revenge narrative going here for FaZe, as well. I think that G2 has been playing really well however, and I feel like they get a close win here. I think it’s a 2-1 win, as I think that Mirage should be a map that FaZe can grab in this match. Think we likely see Nuke as a decider and G2 has won both times they have played Nuke in their last four matches played. Think G2 wins but think FaZe do make it competitive and interesting.

 

NIP (Ranked 13th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 19th in World)

Betting Odds: NiP -140/Mouse +110

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*NiP For Event (7 Maps): REZ 1.26 Rating, nawwk 1.16, Plopski 1.14, hampus 1.07, ztr 0.82.

*NiP For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): REZ 1.14 Rating, Plopski 1.06, hampus 0.93, nawwk 0.93, ztr 0.80.

*Mousesports For Event (7 Maps): ropz 1.24 Rating, frozen 1.11, acoR 0.98, dexter 0.89, Bymas 0.86.

*Mousesports For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): ropz 1.18 Rating, frozen 1.08, acoR 0.97, Bymas 0.89, dexter 0.88.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played once back at the ESL Pro League Season 12 last September with NiP winning a 3-map affair with a 19-17 result on Train, a 16-4 result on Mirage, and Mouse won Nuke 16-13.

*Top Performers for NiP (3 Maps): REZ +14 K-D Diff, 1.26 Rating, 88.0 ADR. nawwk +13 K-D Diff, 1.11 Rating, 61.1 ADR. hampus +3 K-D Diff, 1.10 Rating, 85.1 ADR.

*Top Performers for Mouse (3 Maps): ropz +17 K-D Diff, 1.29 Rating, 92.2 ADR. frozen +6 K-D Diff, 1.06 Rating, 78.8 ADR.

MAPS:

*The likely two first maps banned for this match should include Dust2 for NiP and Overpass for Mouse. NiP typically go with Overpass as their first pick, so I believe we see them likely go with Mirage, while we see Mouse go with Nuke as usual.

*NiP On Mirage (6 Maps): REZ 1.03 Rating, 0.63 KPR, 1.02 IMP, 75.5 ADR. hampus 1.02, Plopski 0.99, ztr 0.97, nawwk 0.89. On Nuke (5 Maps): hampus 1.27 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 97.7 ADR. nawwk 1.24, Plopski 1.15, REZ 1.08, ztr 1.04.

*Mouse on Nuke (3 Maps): ropz 1.42 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.58 IMP, 93.7 ADR. frozen 1.12, acoR 1.06, Bymas 1.05, Karrigan 1.02. On Mirage (4 Maps): frozen 1.34 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 96.4 ADR. ropz 0.96, Karrigan 0.94, Bymas 0.87, acoR 0.85.

Analysis: I don’t really like the fact that Mouse is going to take NiP’s best map away in Overpass. I believe this does give Mouse a little more of an edge as far as map selections go, as they will make NiP have to choose a secondary map. I think that Mouse will have a very good chance of taking Nuke (if they are allowed it) and I think that could easily set them up for a win in this match, as everyone is likely going to be on NiP as the favorites here. Mouse has yet to get a win so far in Pro League action, so I think they find one here.

 

Vitality (Ranked 6th in World) @ ENCE (Ranked 28th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -300/ENCE +220

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -130

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Vitality For Event (): ZywOo 1.36 Rating, shox 1.04, misutaaa 0.94, RpK 0.89, apEX 0.88.

*Vitality For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): ZywOo 1.23 Rating, shox 0.98, apEX 0.94, RpK 0.93, misutaaa 0.93.

*ENCE For Event (): Spinx 1.13 Rating, Snappi 0.97, doto 0.92, dycha 0.90, allu 0.87.

*ENCE For the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): Spinx 1.18 Rating, dycha 0.98, Snappi 0.96, doto 0.95, allu 0.94.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The likely first two banned maps for this match should include Train for Vitality and Vertigo for ENCE. We likely see Vitality go with Dust2, and I think we get Nuke for ENCE.

*Vitality on Dust2 (7 Maps): ZywOo 1.51 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 1.65 IMP, 97.4 ADR. apEX 1.01, shox 0.97, RpK 0.89, misutaaa 0.89. On Nuke (6 Maps): ZywOo 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 77.5 ADR. apEX 1.11, shox 1.07, RpK 0.98, misutaaa 0.94.

*ENCE on Nuke (4 Maps): Spinx 1.26 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 86.4 ADR. Snappi 1.06, allu 1.03, doto 1.01, dycha 0.92. On Dust2 (Have not played Dust2 over the last month)

Analysis: I think ENCE was under-estimated going into their G2 match last time out and they caught G2 off-guard. G2 still almost made the comeback to win the match 2-1. I don’t think Vitality is going to come in with that mindset and I think ZywOo is going to have a field day against this ENCE roster.

 

*TOP STACKS: Vitality, G2, Mousesports

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Mousesports

*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, ropz, NiKo, huNter, frozen, shox, broky, Plopski

*TOP VALUE PLAYS: REZ, hampus, nexa, coldzera, nawwk, AmaNEk, dexter