CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13– 3.15.2021 (3-Match)

NiP (Ranked 12th in World) @ FaZe (Ranked 17th in World)

Betting Odds: FaZe -165/NiP +125

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -120/Under -115

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*NiP hung on to out-last ENCE in a 2-1 affair after winning ENCE’s map choice of Nuke 16-2 on the first map played, but then lost their own map of Mirage 16-5, lastly, NiP took care of business on Inferno with a 16-7 result for the win. FaZe swept Mousesports after an opening match loss to Vitality and both of these teams now sit at 1-1 for the Event.

*NiP For Event (5 Maps): REZ 1.33 Rating, nawwk 1.18, hampus 1.12, Plopski 1.07, ztr 0.76.

*NiP For the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): REZ 1.11 Rating, Plopski 1.10, hampus 1.00, nawwk 0.96, ztr 0.80.

*FaZe For Event (5 Maps): broky 1.27 Rating, coldzera 1.14, Twistzz 1.08, rain 1.03, Karrigan 0.99.

*FaZe For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): Twistzz 1.03 Rating, broky 1.02, rain 0.99, coldzera 0.96, Karrigan 0.84.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have quite the familiarity of each other as they played a total of four times in 2020 with FaZe winning three of the four matches played. Two of the four went three maps, however the most recent two matches were swept by each team at the DreamHack Open Fall 2020 and the ESL Pro League Season 12.

*NiP vs FaZe (12 Maps): nawwk +13 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

*FaZe vs NiP (12 Maps): broky +26 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.05 Rating. coldzera +16 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.04 Rating. rain +4 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.13 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two maps banned for this match should include Vertigo for FaZe and Dust2 for NiP. I believe we see NiP go with Overpass once again, and I think we see FaZe go right back to Mirage.

*FaZe on Mirage (7 Maps): coldzera 1.06 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 76.7 ADR. broky 1.03, Twistzz 1.00, Karrigan 0.94, rain 0.92. On Overpass (2 Maps): rain 1.18 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.53 IMP, 85.3 ADR. Twistzz 1.08, coldzera 1.01, broky 0.97, Karrigan 0.78.

Analysis: NiP looked good yesterday against ENCE, but ENCE didn’t play very well at all (except for on Mirage). FaZe took down a pretty good team in Mousesports and barely lost to Vitality in the opening match for Group B play. I believe the books have the right favorite here in FaZe, as I feel they are just getting warmed up to make a run at this group. Going with FaZe here, and I think it could easily turn into a sweep.

 

ENCE (Ranked 39th in World) @ G2 (Ranked 11th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -250/ENCE +185

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*ENCE were losers in their second match of Group B play against NiP on Sunday, but still had a really nice win in their opening match over Mousesports. G2 have now swept both of their matches played to start Group B play over both NiP and Vitality.

*ENCE For Event (6 Maps): Spinx 0.99 Rating, dycha 0.96, Snappi 0.92, doto 0.92, allu 0.88.

*ENCE For the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): Spinx 1.11 Rating, dycha 1.03, allu 0.98, doto 0.97, Snappi 0.93.

*G2 For Event (4 Maps): huNter 1.23 Rating, NiKo 1.13, nexa 1.08, JaCkz 1.04, AmaNEk 1.04.

*G2 For the Last Month of Play (14 Maps): huNter 1.17 Rating, JaCkz 1.16, NiKo 1.15, nexa 1.01, AmaNEk 1.00.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for ENCE. I believe we see G2 go with Mirage, while I think we see ENCE go with Train.

*G2 on Mirage (7 Maps): NiKo 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 88.0 ADR. huNter 1.09, nexa 0.98, JaCkz 0.97, AmaNEk 0.86. On Train (4 Maps): JaCkz (1 Maps) 1.45 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 96.6 ADR. AmaNEk 0.99, huNter 0.97, NiKo 0.96, nexa 0.83.

*ENCE on Train (5 Maps): dycha 1.35 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 99.4 ADR. allu 1.12, Snappi 1.06, doto 0.97, Spinx 0.93. On Mirage (1 Map): Spinx 1.79 Rating, 1.19 KPR, 2.02 IMP, 103.8 ADR. Snappi 1.42, dycha 1.26, allu 1.20 , doto 1.17.

Analysis: There is no doubt in my mind that G2 will be the chalkiest stack on the slate and for good reason. They have won two-straight by the sweep to open ESL Pro League play, but I also have a feeling they may come in taking this match a bit lightly. ENCE is off a loss yesterday and will be looking to get back in the winning column after a pretty poor performance against NiP. In tournaments I will have some ENCE leverage, as it should be the clear leverage on the slate.

 

Vitality (Ranked 5th in World) @ Mousesports (Ranked 15th in World)

Betting Odds: Vitality -250/Mouse +185

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is a best of three match for Group B in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Vitality was swept pretty convincingly on Sunday by G2 as mentioned above and have opened up ESL Pro League with one win and one loss. Mouse took a loss on Sunday as well at the hands of NiP, and are now 0-2 in ESL Pro League Group B play.

*Vitality For Event (5 Maps): ZywOo 1.39 Rating, misutaaa 1.02, shox 0.95, RpK 0.86, apEX 0.84.

*Vitality For the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): ZywOo 1.21 Rating, misutaaa 0.96, apEX 0.94, shox 0.93, RpK 0.92.

*Mousesports For Event (5 Maps): ropz 1.28 Rating, frozen 1.22, acoR 1.02, Bymas 0.86, dexter 0.81.

*Mousesports For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): ropz 1.20 Rating, frozen 1.11, acoR 1.01, Bymas 0.91, dexter 0.84.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played three times dating back to September of 2020, however both teams have changed up rosters and there are new faces especially for Mouse that were not a part of that core. Not going to list prior head-to-head data due to such major changes in rosters.

MAPS:

*The first likely two ban maps for this match should include Train for Vitality and Overpass for Mouse. Mouse has chosen Nuke nearly 40% of the time lately, while Vitality has gone with Dust2 as their first pick roughly 35%.

*Vitality on Dust2 (7 Maps): ZywOo 1.56 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 1.72 IMP, 98.6 ADR. apEX 1.09, misutaaa 1.02, shox 1.01, RpK 0.94. On Nuke (8 Maps): ZywOo 1.27 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 83.0 ADR. apEX 1.09, shox 1.07, Rpk 0.97, misutaaa 0.94.

*Mouse on Nuke (3 Maps): ropz 1.42 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.58 IMP, 93.7 ADR. frozen 1.12, acoR 1.06, Bymas 1.05, dexter 1.02, Karrigan 1.02. On Dust2 (4 Maps): ropz 1.27 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 86.9 ADR. frozen 1.19, dexter 1.03, Bymas 1.00, acoR 0.96, Karrigan 0.57.

Analysis: Let’s just face it, there is no one on Vitality playing well other than ZywOo to start Pro League. Mousesports have lost two close matches to start their Pro League action and are hungry for a win. I believe they get their first win here and Vitality drops another match.

 

*TOP STACKS (Who I Think Win Match): FaZe, G2, Mouse

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (Tournament Stacks Mainly): ENCE, NiP

*TOP CPT PLAYS: ropz, ZywOo, frozen, broky, huNter, NiKo, Twistzz, dycha

*TOP VALUES: coldzera, rain, acoR, allu, REZ, nawwk, hampus