CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 3.11.2021 (3-Match)

OG (Ranked 18th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -205/OG +155

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +100/Under -130

*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*KEY NOTE: NBK is playing for OG, NOT niko.

*OG bounced-back nicely against a weaker opponent in Renegades on Wednesday in a 2-0 sweeping effort, while Heroic also dealt a sweep of their own to FunPlus Phoenix. Heroic starts off Pro League play at 3-0, while OG sits a 2-1 so far.

*OG For Event (7 Maps): mantuu 1.21 Rating, valde 1.18, ISSAA 1.07, Aleksib 1.04.

*OG For the Last Month of Play (25 Maps): mantuu 1.14 Rating, valde 1.12, ISSAA 1.06, NBK 1.01, Aleksib 0.98.

*Heroic For Event (7 Maps): cadiaN 1.19 Rating, TeSeS 1.18, stavn 1.16, refrezh 1.10, sjuush 1.01.

*Heroic For the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): cadiaN 1.18 Rating, stavn 1.12, TeSeS 1.07, sjuush 1.07, refrezh 0.99.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played four total times over the last calendar month (new faces for each team now), with Heroic winning three of the four, including three of the last four played.

*Heroic vs OG (9 Maps): TeSeS +21 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.09 Rating. cadiaN +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

*OG vs Heroic (9 Maps): mantuu +7 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.00 Rating.

MAPS:

*The two likely first maps to be banned for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Vertigo for OG. The first map choices for this match should be Inferno for OG and Nuke for Heroic.

*OG on Inferno (12 Maps): valde 1.16 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 77.5 ADR. ISSAA 1.07, mantuu 1.06, NBK 1.04, Aleksib 1.00. On Nuke (7 Maps): mantuu 1.22 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 74.9 ADR. Aleksib 1.15, valde 1.13, ISSAA 1.11, NBK 0.95.

*Heroic on Nuke (6 Maps): refrezh (3 Maps): 1.19 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 75.8 ADR. cadiaN 1.09, TeSeS 0.95, stavn 0.92, sjuush 0.74. On Inferno (10 Maps): cadiaN 1.17 Rating, refrezh (1 Map) 1.30, TeSeS 1.09, stavn 1.05, sjuush 0.96.  

Analysis: I honestly think this will be the closest match of the day. Both of these teams are closely matched in talent. I believe once again that OG will be under-valued in this spot, with Heroic likely garnering some ownership. I am totally split on this match and will likely have bits and pieces of both teams here. I do lean Heroic though.

 

BIG (Ranked 7th in World) @ FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 19th in World)

Betting Odds: BIG -235/FPX +175

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140

*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*BIG finally got the monkey off their backs on Wednesday with a crushing 2-0 defeat over Complexity as a decently big dog. FPX started the Event off with an 0-2 loss to Complexity and followed it up with a win over Renegades 2-0 on Tuesday and found a halt on Wednesday when they ran into Heroic, who dealt them an 0-2 loss.

*BIG For Event (8 Maps): XANTARES 1.10 Rating, k1to 1.07, tabseN 1.02, syrsoN 1.02, tiziaN 0.87.

*BIG For the Last Month of Play (17 Maps): syrsoN 1.09 Rating, tabseN 1.05, XANTARES 1.05, k1to 1.05, tiziaN 0.87.

*FPX For Event (6 Maps): suNny 1.04 Rating, STYKO 1.02, Maden 0.97, zehN 0.96, Farlig 0.96.

*FPX For the last Month of Play (11 Maps): Maden 1.06 Rating, suNny 1.04, zehN 1.03, Farlig 1.03, STYKO 1.01.

H2H Data:

*These two teams two teams played three times in 2020 with BIG winning all three matches played. The last two matches played saw the full three-map distance, as well.

*BIG vs FPX (8 Maps): syrsoN +37 K-D Diff, 1.25 K-D, 1.17 Rating. XANTARES +33 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.19 Rating. tiziaN +29 K-D Diff, 1.19 K-D, 1.17 Rating (what did GODSENT ever do to him?). tabseN +12 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.13 Rating.

*FPX vs BIG (8 Maps): Maden +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.07 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for FPX and Train for BIG. I think we know already that FPX is going back to Nuke, while I believe we see BIG go with Vertigo.

*BIG on Vertigo (8 Maps): XANTARES 1.18 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 82.3 ADR. syrsoN 1.16, tabseN 1.08, tiziaN 1.05, k1to 0.99. On Nuke (11 Maps): XANTARES 1.16 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 0.91 IMP, 79.2 ADR. tabseN 1.14, syrsoN 1.07, k1to 0.92, tiziaN 0.85.

*FPX on Nuke (3 Maps): Maden 1.33 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 92.7 ADR. suNny 1.14, zehN 1.09, Farlig 1.08, STYKO 1.02. On Vertigo (No maps played here for last three months).

Analysis: FPX just hasn’t strung together a full team-game yet so far in the Pro League, but I have a feeling they likely will soon, but I don’t think it is going to be this one. BIG coming in hot after a huge 2-0 sweep over a major competitor and they likely bring that momentum back into this match. I could see this match easily going three maps, as well, as they last two played in this series have done so. I do like BIG to get the job done here though.

 

Renegades (Ranked 48th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 9th in World)

Betting Odds: Complexity -585/Renegades +375

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +150/Under -200

*This is a best of three match for Group A play in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.

*Renegades have not been able to steal away any wins yet for the Pro League as they were dealt another loss on Wednesday against OG as mentioned above and sit at 0-3 for the Event currently. Complexity find themselves in a smash bounce-back spot against a team that should allow them to do so, after being dealt their first loss of Pro League play, but a convincing sweep by BIG.

*Renegades For Event (6 Maps): INS 1.03 Rating, Hatz 0.89, malta 0.83, Sico 0.78, aliStair 0.71.

*Renegades For the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): INS 1.06, Hatz 0.90, Sico 0.85, malta 0.82, aliStair 0.82.

*Complexity For Event (): poizon 1.19 Rating, blameF 1.18, k0nfig 1.03, jks 0.97, RUSH 0.84.

*Complexity For the Last Month of Play (20 Maps): blameF 1.30 Rating, poizon 1.16, k0nfig 1.11, jks 1.01, RUSH 0.86.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not faced-off any time recently.

MAPS:

*The two likely first ban maps for this match include Inferno for Complexity and Train for Renegades. I believe we see Renegades go with Dust2 and Complexity go with Mirage.

*Complexity for Mirage (12 Maps): blameF 1.19 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 77.4 ADR. k0nfig 1.18, poizon 1.09, jks 1.06, RUSH 0.94. On Dust2 (8 Maps): blameF 1.14 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 81.2 ADR. poizon 1.14, k0nfig 0.98, RUSH 0.85, jks 0.84.

*Renegades on Dust2 (2 Maps): INS 1.14 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.61 IMP, 86.9 ADR. Hatz 0.64, aliStari 0.56, malta 0.54, Sico 0.46.On Mirage (No map played here for last three months)

Analysis: As mentioned in the intro about how these two teams have played for the start of this Event, Complexity is going to bounce-back pretty hard here I feel. They are going to be the chalk for certain, but it’s clearly the largest mis-match of the slate, so you have to take advantage of it.

 

*TOP STACKS: Complexity, BIG, Heroic

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: OG

*TOP CPT PLAYS: blameF, poizon, syrsoN, XANTARES, cadiaN, mantuu, valde

*TOP VALUES: k0nfig, tabseN, stavn, refrezh, tiziaN, ISSAA, Aleksib