CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 3.10.2021 (3-Match)
Renegades (Ranked 48th in World) @ OG (Ranked 18th in World)
Betting Odds: OG -435/Renegades +300
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +125/Under -165
*This is a best of three match for Group A for the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Both of these teams found a loss on Tuesday’s slate of matches for Group A with Renegades being dealt another 0-2 loss at the hands of FPX, while OG ran in to a loss by sweep as well at the hands of Complexity. Renegades sit at 0-2 for the Pro League currently, while OG sits at 1-1.
*Renegades For Event (4 Maps): INS 0.93 Rating, Hatz 0.87, malta 0.85, Sico 0.77, aliStair 0.63.
*Renegades For the Last Month of Play (10 Maps): INS 1.03 Rating, Hatz 0.89, Sico 0.86, malta 0.84.
*OG For Event (5 Maps): valde 1.17 Rating, niko 1.15, mantuu 1.14, Aleksib 1.06, ISSAA 0.89.
*OG For the Last Month of Play (23 Maps): Mantuu 1.12 Rating, valde 1.12, niko 1.09, ISSAA 1.01, Aleksib 0.98.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have no prior head-to-head matches played recently.
MAPS:
*The first two likely bans for this match should include Train for Renegades and Vertigo for OG. Both teams are choosing Inferno as their first map pick lately, but OG have also been going with Mirage at a high clip as well. I think we likely see Inferno and Mirage for this match.
*OG on Mirage (7 Maps): valde 1.15 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 80.0 ADR. Mantuu 1.09, niko 0.98, ISSAA 0.96, Aleksib 0.84. On Inferno (11 Maps): valde 1.17 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 77.6 ADR. niko 1.13, Mantuu 1.05, ISSAA 1.02, Aleksib 1.00.
*Renegades on Inferno (3 Maps): INS 0.95 Rating, 0.62 KPR, 1.03 IMP, 73.5 ADR. Hatz 0.94, malta 0.92, Sico 0.90, aliStair 0.64. On Mirage (Only Been One Map Played Over L3 Months): Sico 1.75 Rating, aliStair 1.58, INS 1.40, Hatz 1.25, malta 1.23.
Analysis: OG ran into a much better-playing Complexity for Tuesday’s slate and I don’t think they will have much trouble in this one against Renegades. Renegades have not won many matches at all, even on the lower-tier of CS, since the departure of Dexter, who was also their IGL. Renegades have a ways to go, and I think OG gets a pretty simply 2-0 sweep here.
Heroic (Ranked 13th in World) @ FunPlus Phoenix (Ranked 19th in World):
Betting Odds: Heroic -250/FPX +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*Both of these squads managed a win in their respective matches played on Tuesday. Heroic was taken all the way the distance in a three-map affair before putting BIG away on Vertigo to end the match with a 2-1 win, while FPX took care of Renegades pretty convincingly in a 2-0 sweep.
*Heroic For Event (5 Maps): TeSeS 1.22 Rating, stavn 1.16, cadiaN 1.14, refrezh 1.04, sjuush 1.03.
*Heroic For the Last Month of Play (16 Maps): cadiaN 1.16 Rating, stavn 1.12, sjuush 1.10, TeSeS 1.06, refrezh 0.92.
*FPX For Event (4 Maps): suNny 1.15 Rating, STYKO 1.13, zehN 1.04, Maden 0.98, Farlig 0.97.
*FPX For the Last Month of Play: See above.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played three matches recently, but none of those matches saw the three total new players for these two teams combined. This Heroic team is a whole different make-up now with sjuush and refrezh.
MAPS:
*The first likely ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Mirage for FPX. FPX has made Nuke their exclusive number one selection, while I believe we see Heroic go with Vertigo here.
*FPX on Nuke (3 Maps): Maden 1.33 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 92.7 ADR. suNny 1.14, zehN 1.09, Farlig 1.08, STYKO 1.02. On Vertigo (They have not played Vertigo over the last month).
*Heroic On Vertigo (3 Maps): cadiaN 1.38 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 91.5 ADR. Stavn 1.35, sjuush 1.24, TeSeS 1.20, refrezh 1.01. On Nuke (3 Maps): refrezh (1 Map) 1.30 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 80.7 ADR. cadiaN 1.23. TeSeS 1.01, stavn 0.92, sjuush 0.74.
Analysis: The way Heroic have started this Pro League out with their new players is quite impressive. FPX, much like everyone in this Pro League started off their opening match against Complexity and got swept, but had a really nice showing on Tuesday against Renegades. I think most feel that this is a bag win for Heroic, but I believe this is going to be much closer than the odds are showing, and I think FPX could possibly be the leverage on this slate for tournaments with everyone 100% going back to Heroic for this slate.
BIG (Ranked 7th in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 9th in World)
Betting Odds: Complexity -135/BIG +105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -120/Under -110
*This is a best of three match for Group A in the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event.
*BIG has now dropped back-to-back 1-2 losses at the hands of OG and Heroic, while Complexity has won both first two matches for this Event in a row, and four of their last four-straight matches played.
*BIG For Event (6 Maps): XANTARES 1.07 Rating, tabseN 1.00, syrsoN 0.94, tiziaN 0.86, k1to 0.85.
*BIG For the Last Month of Play (15 Maps): syrsoN 1.06 Rating, tabseN 1.04, XANTARES 1.04, k1to 0.96, tiziaN 0.87.
*Complexity For Event (4 Maps): poizon 1.26 Rating, blameF 1.23, k0nfig 1.15, jks 1.12, RUSH 0.97.
*Complexity For the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): blameF 1.32 Rating, poizon 1.17, k0nfig 1.14, jks 1.06, RUSH 0.90.
H2H Data:
*These two squads have played seven total times dating back to January of 2020. Complexity won the most recent meeting at the IEM Beijing Event in a 2-0 sweep. Prior to that win, BIG had won three in a row. BIG has won four of the seven matches played in this series.
*BIG vs Complexity (15 Maps): syrsoN +44 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.17 Rating. XANTARES +42 K-D Diff, 1.15 K-D, 1.13 Rating. tabseN +7 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
*Complexity vs BIG (15 Maps): blameF +62 K-D Diff, 1.24 K-D, 1.22 Rating. (Side note – poizon is a -48 K-D Diff for this series, so one can say that syrsoN has had his number)
MAPS:
*The first likely two ban maps for this match include Train for BIG and Inferno for Complexity. I believe we see Mirage from Complexity and Vertigo for BIG.
*Complexity on Mirage (11 Maps): k0nfig 1.21 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 85.1 ADR. blameF 1.20, poizon 1.12, jks 1.09, RUSH 0.97. On Vertigo (No Maps Played Last Three Months).
*BIG on Vertigo (8 maps): XANTARES 1.18 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 82.3 ADR. syrsoN 1.16, tabseN 1.08, tiziaN 1.05, k1to 0.99. On Mirage (6 Maps): tabseN 1.31 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.41 ADR, 92.0 ADR. XANTARES 1.17, syrsoN 1.06, tiziaN 0.96, k1to 0.94.
Analysis: I am just going to say this – if those betting odds don’t SCREAM trap, then I guess you will be seen on the next “To Catch a Predator” episode. BIG looked bad yesterday, I agree. I really had a nice bead on them I thought. Got the map selection – Nuke, and Mirage. The decider – Vertigo… A map they lost 16-10 on to Heroic on Tuesday. The crazy part? They had won seven-straight maps on Vertigo before that map loss. I’m not saying, I’m just saying BIG had won three prior straight matches in this series before their last meeting, and all of those matches were the cores playing now, as well. I will likely have bits and pieces of both teams here, as I think we see three maps AND I think this is likely the best match to do so on the slate.
*TOP STACKS: OG, BIG,
(*(I AM NOT FADING THE OTHER TEAMS, THIS IS JUST MY EMPHASIS, BUT I ONLY PLAY GPP ALSO)
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: BIG, FPX
*TOP CPT PLAYS: valde, mantuu, syrsoN, XANTARES, blameF, Maden, tabseN, cadiaN, stavn
*TOP VALUES: suNny, refrezh, jks, TeSeS, k0nfig, Aleksib, k1to