Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO Feb 21

Sean Mitchell

eSports

Published: Feb 21, 2021

CS:GO DFS Playbook – IEM Katowice 2021 2.21.2021 (3-Match)

Gambit (Ranked 19^th in World) @ G2 (Ranked 10^th in World)

Betting Odds: G2 -120/Gambit -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115

*This is a best of three Group A lower-bracket final. Winner is on to the quarter-finals.

*Gambit For Event: sh1ro 1.30 Rating, Ax1Le 1.10, Hobbit 1.07, Nafany 1.03, interz 1.02.

*Gambit For the Last Three Months of Play: sh1ro 1.24 Rating, Hobbit 1.19, Ax1Le 1.18, Nafany 1.04, interz 1.00.

*G2 For Event: huNter 1.22 Rating, NiKo 1.17, AmaNEk 1.02, kennyS 1.00, nexa 0.95.

*G2 For the Last Three Months of Play: NiKo 1.10 Rating, huNter 1.02, kennyS 1.00, nexa 0.95, AmaNEk 0.92.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played any recent head-to-head matches.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for Gambit and Overpass for G2. Believe we see G2 go with Dust2 and Gambit go with Vertigo.

*G2 on Dust2 (8 Maps): kennyS 1.26 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 83.1 ADR. NiKo 1.17, huNter 1.01, nexa 0.96, AmaNEk 0.94. On Vertigo (3 Maps): nexa 1.17 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 82.0 ADR. huNter 1.16, kennyS 1.05, NiKo 1.04, AmaNEk 0.99.

*Gambit on Vertigo (13 Maps): Hobbit 1.29 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.32 IMP, 847 ADR. Ax1Le 1.23, sh1ro 1.22, Nafany 1.15, interz 1.02. On Dust2 (9 Maps): Sh1ro 1.16 Rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 77.1 ADR. Hobbit 1.15, Ax1Le 1.04, Nafany 0.89, interz 0.75.

Analysis: I think this turns out to maybe be the best match on the board today. These two teams are so evenly-matched, and Gambit has such a WIDE map pool that I feel that most maps will lean in their favor, as do I today. I think Gambit can win this match. It will be a good one, I really don’t have a strong lean here either way, seems like a good match to stack both sides to be honest.

Astralis (Ranked 2^nd in World) @ Spirit (Ranked 16^th in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -270/Spirit +200

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three Group A upper-bracket final. Winner is onto the semi-finals, loser to the quarter-finals.

*Astralis For Event: device 1.49 Rating, Xyp9x 1.35, gla1ve 1.29, dupreeh 1.26, Magisk 1.00.

*Astralis For the Last Three Months of Play: device 1.23 Rating, dupreeh 1.12, Magisk 1.06, Xyp9x 1.04, gla1ve 1.02.

*Spirit For Event: mir 1.18 Rating, sdy 1.18, Magixx 1.06, degster 1.05, chopper 1.00.

*Spirit For the Last Three Months: degster 1.27 Rating, mir 1.21, sdy 1.07, Magixx 1.04, chopper 1.04.

H2H Data:

*These two teams played three times in 2020 with Astralis sweeping all three matches. Only three of the six maps played saw Spirit win at least 10+ rounds. However, there are a few new faces (or returning faces for Astralis) that did and did not play in these matches.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Vertigo for Spirit and Mirage for Astralis. I believe we see Spirit go with Dust2, while Astralis likely sticks with Inferno.

*Spirit on Dust2 (15 Maps): degster 1.40 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.51 IMP, 87.5 ADR. Mir 1.28, magixx 1.25, chopper 1.01, sdy 0.95. On Inferno (10 Maps): degster 1.29 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.35 IMP, 80.8 ADR. Sdy 1.28, mir 1.26, chopper 1.09, magixx 1.03.

*Astralis on Inferno (19 Maps): device 1.18 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 82.5 ADR. Dupreeh 1.14, Magisk 1.04, gla1ve 1.00, Xyp9x 0.97. On Dust2 (14 Maps): device 1.26 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 81.4 ADR. Dupreeh 1.13, Xyp9x 1.10, gla1ve 1.09, Magisk 1.08.

Analysis: Spirit is on a seven-match win streak, but I feel that is about to come to a hault. Astralis has been playing immaculate CS so far in this Event and they are primed for the playoff run. Spirit hadn’t found a single way to steal a map in their prior three meetings and I don’t feel that just the addition of degster is going to make THAT much of the difference in doing so. I think we once again see Astralis 2-0.

Liquid (Ranked 7^th in World) @ NaVi (Ranked 1^st in World)

Betting Odds: NaVi -265/Liquid +195

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -135

*This is a best of three Group B upper-bracket Final. Winner is onto the semi-finals, loser goes to quarter-final.

*NaVi For Event: s1mple 1.60 Rating!, electronic 1.18, Boombl4 1.15, Perfecto 1.09, flamie 0.88.

*NaVi For the Last Three Months of Play: s1mple 1.38 Rating, electronic 1.11, Perfecto 1.02, Boombl4 0.98, flamie 0.95.

*Liquid For Event: FalleN 1.36 Rating, EliGE 1.36, NAF 1.23, Grim 1.07, Stewie2K 1.02.

*Liquid For the Last Three Months of Play: ELiGE 1.13 Rating, NAF 1.12, FalleN 1.04, Grim 1.01, stewie2K 0.93.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have played twice already in 2021 with both teams trading a sweep a piece.

*Top Performers for NaVi vs Liquid (6 Maps): s1mple +52 K-D Diff, 1.50 K-D, 1.38 Rating. Perfecto +9 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.10 Rating. Flamie +4 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.10 Rating.

*Top Performers for Liquid vs NaVi (6 Maps): NAF +30 K-D Diff, 1.31 K-D, 1.22 Rating. EliGE +19 K-D Diff, 1.16 K-D, 1.15 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Vertigo for NaVI. I think we see Liquid go with a home map here in Mirage, while I think we see NaVi go with Dust2.

*NaVI on Dust2 (8 Maps): s1mple 1.45 Rating, 0.95 KPR, 1.60 IMP, 93.9 ADR. Electronic 1.15, boom 1.03, Perfecto 0.98, flamie 0.95. On Mirage (6 Maps): S1mple 1.39 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.50 IMP, 87.9 ADR. Electronic 1.25, Perfecto 1.09, flamie 0.94, Boom 0.90.

*Liquid on Mirage (6 Maps): FalleN 1.30 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 84.6 ADR. EliGE 1.22, NAF 1.10, Stewie2K 1.06, Grim 1.06. On Dust2 (5 Maps): NAF 1.19 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 77.7 ADR. EliGE 1.12, Grim 1.11, stewie2K 1.01, FalleN 0.95.

Analysis: What allowed Liquid to be so successful so far in this Event was FalleN winning his AWP opening duels, and he has done a tremendous job at doing that so far. This is easily going to be his toughest task dealing with s1mple on the other side. I am just not sure that Liquid will be able to steal a map here. I think it could easily land NaVi 2-1 in this match, but I think that Liquid MUST win on Mirage.

*TOP STACKS: Astralis, Gambit, NaVi

*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Gambit

*TOP CPT PLAYS: device, s1mple, sh1ro, AxL1e, EliGE, electronic, Xyp9x

*TOP VALUES: gla1ve, Nafany, flamie, Perfecto, NAF, mir, degster