CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premiere Global Finals 2020 1.23.2021 (2-Match)
Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) @ Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World)
Betting Odds: Vitality -120/Astralis -110
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -125/Under -105
*This a best of three upper bracket final match in the BLAST Premiere Event.
*Astralis For the Event: dupreeh 1.18 Rating, device 1.15, Magisk 1.13, Xyp9x 1.11, gla1ve 1.06.
*Vitality For the Event: ZywOo 1.39 Rating, shox 1.26, RpK 1.18, apEX 1.10, misutaaa 0.83.
*Astralis Over the Last Three Months of Play (69 Maps): device 1.23 Rating, dupreeh 1.10, Magisk 1.07, Xyp9x 1.03, gla1ve 1.00.
*Vitality Over the Last Three Months of Play (54 Maps): ZywOo 1.31 Rating, Nivera 1.13, shox 1.11, misutaaa 1.04, RpK 1.02, apEX 1.02.
H2H Data:
*These two squads have played nine total matches over the 2020 year and Astralis has won six of the nine matches played. Astralis has also won three of their last five, including their most recent at the IEM Global Challenge 2020, so I suppose you could say this is a revenge spot for Vitality if you are into that.
*Astralis vs Vitality (22 Maps): device +83 K-D Diff, 1.23 K-D, 1.19 Rating. Dupreeh +63 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.16 Rating. Xyp9x (12 Maps) +12 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.09 Rating.
*Vitality vs Astralis (22 Maps): ZywOo +46 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.13 Rating. Nivera (7 Maps) +8 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.04 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Train for Vitality. Over these two team’s last four matches played, Dust2 showed up all four times, Nuke three times, Inferno twice, Vertigo twice, and Overpass once. I am pretty sure we will pencil in Dust2, as this is a big home map for Vitality, and looking at the maps lately chosen, Astralis has gone with Nuke over 40% of the time. Neither map gives significant edge to either team, on Dust2 it is 62% win for Astralis over L16 and 67% for Vitality over L12 attempts, while Nuke is 43% win over L14 and Vitality is 54% over L13 tries there.
*Astralis on Nuke (14 Maps): device 1.26 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 85.4 ADR. Magisk 1.02, gla1ve 0.96, dupreeh 0.94, Xyp9x 0.88. On Dust2 (16 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 79.4 ADR. Dupreeh 1.15, Xyp9x 1.07, gla1ve 1.05, Magisk 1.05.
*Vitality on Dust2 (12 Maps): ZywOo 1.47 Rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.56 IMP, 96.5 ADR. Nivera 1.09, Shox 1.05, apEX 1.04, RpK 0.92. On Nuke (13 Maps): ZywOo 1.28 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 83.3 ADR. Nivera 1.16, Shox 1.12, apEX 0.99, misutaaa 0.90, RpK 0.85. (*NOTE – Nivera has played on both Dust2 and Nuke for Misutaaa lately, this could be a sneaky play today if using VIT if the maps fall this way)
Analysis: Astralis has had their number for most of the H2H data shown over the prior year or so. The odds are very close at the books and it almost seems like they are expecting this to be a three-map affair. I really believe this match will rely on Vitality winning Dust2. IF they can’t get the job done there, this likely could end up being a 2-0 sweep for Astralis.
Liquid (Ranked 8th in World) @ NaVi (Ranked 3rd in World):
Betting Odds: NaVi -180/Liquid +135
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -120/Under -110
*This is a best of three lower bracket finals match for the BLAST Premiere Event.
*Liquid For the Event: NAF 1.33 Rating, FalleN 1.09, Grim 1.07, EliGe 1.05, Stewie2K 0.94.
*NaVi For the Event: s1mple 1.36, electronic 1.17, Boombl4 1.14, Perfecto 1.08, flamie 0.89.
*Liquid Over the Last Three Months of Play (36 Maps): 1.15 Rating, EliGe 1.11, FalleN 1.09, Grim 1.08, Stewie2K 0.96.
*NaVi Over the Last Three Months of Play (55 Maps): s1mple 1.29 Rating, electronic 1.13, Perfecto 1.00, flamie 0.98, Boombl4 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played three matches in recent memory, with their most recent being the first match of this Event where NaVi lost in an 0-2 defeat to Liquid. One could say there is a MASSIVE revenge narrative here for NaVi. NaVi did sweep Liquid the two prior matches leading up to that loss in the H2H series.
*Liquid vs NaVi (4 Maps): NAF +26 K-D Diff, 1.45 K-D, 1.29 Rating. EliGe +11 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.15 Rating. Grim +1 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.08 Rating. FalleN (2 Maps) +5 K-D Diff, 1.17 K-D, 1.06 Rating.
*NaVi vs Liquid (4 Maps): s1mple +35 K-D Diff, 1.53 K-D, 1.40 Rating. Perfecto +14 K-D Diff, 1.22 K-D, 1.16 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Vertigo for NaVi. The first maps chosen lately include Inferno for Liquid and Nuke for NaVi. The last three matches played H2H, Nuke and Mirage were played twice, Dust2 and Inferno once. I believe we see Inferno and Nuke for this match.
*Liquid on Inferno (10 Maps): EliGe 1.12 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 76.8 ADR. FalleN 1.09, NAF 1.07, Stewie2K 0.95, Grim 0.93. On Nuke (9 Maps): NAF 1.28 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 88.8 ADR. EliGe 1.19, Grim 1.09, FalleN 1.04, Stewie2K 0.94.
*NaVi on Nuke (15 Maps): s1mple 1.41 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.52 IMP, 93.3 ADR. Electronic 1.13, Perfecto 1.10, flamie 1.07, Boombl4 0.96. On Inferno (11 Maps): s1mple 1.28 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.23 IMP, 82.2 ADR. Electronic 1.16, flamie 1.00, Boombl4 0.95, Perfecto 0.90.
Analysis: NaVi has owned his series up until the 0-2 sweep they were dealt to start this event. I truly know for sure that s1mple is a vengeful soul, and I would bet my hard-earned money that he had his match circled as a potential out to get to the finals of this Event and he has not forgotten that loss. Looking for NaVi to show they are still a top-2 team in the World, and once again behind a strong performance from both s1mple and Electronic as his right-hand man. Liquid has played well this Event, but EG isn’t what they used to be, and Vitality showed us that Liquid is easily beatable when they 2-0 them in the second match of this Event. Give me NaVi here.
*TOP STACKS: NaVi, Astralis
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Vitality
*TOP CPT PLAYS: s1mple, device, electronic, ZywOo, dupreeh, shox
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: Perfecto, Xyp9x, Boombl4, Nivera, NAF, FalleN, EliGE