CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premiere Global Final 2020 1.21.2021 (3-Match)
Complexity (Ranked 12th in World) @ NaVi (Ranked 3rd in World)
Betting Odds: NaVi -370/Complexity +260
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +140/Under -190
*This is a best of three match in the lower bracket Round 1 for the BLAST Premiere Event.
*Obviously with this being a lower bracket match, we know both of these teams lost in their most recent matches. Complexity was dealt a tough draw with their first match being Vitality and they lost by sweep 0-2, while NaVi were also swept in their first match back in this Event and the new-look Team Liquid also 0-2. (*NOTE – B1T played for flamie on Inferno in their loss to Liquid, something to keep an eye on)
*Complexity For the Event: RUSH 1.11 Rating, blameF 0.90, JUGi 0.81, k0nfig 0.81, jks 0.75.
NaVi For the Event: s1mple 1.39 Rating, Perfecto 1.14, Boombl4 0.83, flamie 0.78, electronic 0.76 (expecting a major bounce-back from electronic)
*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play (37 Maps): blameF 1.16 Rating, k0nfig 1.13, jks 1.00, RUSH 0.95.
*NaVi Over the Last Three Months of Play (54 Maps): s1mple 1.29 Rating, electronic 1.11, Perfecto 1.01, flamie 0.98, Boombl4 0.92.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played six matches in 2020 and it was split with both teams claiming three wins a piece. Complexity won the most recent match back in IEM Beijing in a 2-1 thriller. Three of the six matches also went the full 3-map distance. Mostly Complexity had a couple different faces during some of these matches, as well.
*NaVi vs Complexity (15 Maps): s1mple +81 K-D Diff, 1.35 K-D, 1.22 Rating. Flamie +12 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
*Complexity vs NaVi (15 Maps): blameF +18 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.10 Rating. K0nfig +3 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.04 Rating. (jks has only played three maps vs NaVi – +7 K-D Diff, 1.14 Rating).
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Inferno for Complexity and Vertigo for NaVi. Complexity has been going with Mirage close to 40% of the time lately, while NaVi is going with Nuke 36% of the time lately. Looking at their last four matches – Nuke showed up all four times, Dust2 twice, Mirage twice, Overpass and Train once. I think we see Nuke and Mirage here.
*NaVi on Nuke (15 Maps): s1mple 1.40 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.51 IMP, 93.5 ADR. Electronic 1.12, flamie 1.08, Perfecto 1.08, Boombl4 0.94. On Mirage (8 Maps): s1mple 1.21 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 80.5 ADR. Electronic 1.16, Perfecto 1.06, flamie 1.05, Boombl4 0.95.
*Complexity on Mirage (11 Maps): k0nfig 1.21 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 84.8 ADR. blameF 1.15, RUSH 0.91, JUGi (2 Maps) 0.89, jks 0.85. On Nuke (9 Maps): blameF 1.33 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 86.7 ADR. Jks 1.08, k0nfig 1.02, RUSH 0.97, JUGi (1 Map) 0.91.
Analysis: As much as I want to think that NaVi gets right back on track here, and they still may as they are literally a top-3 team in the World, I just didn’t like how everyone other than s1mple played in their first match against Liquid. Complexity at least gave Vitality a slight run, but NaVi looked bad on map 1 and it was all s1mple with 36 kills on Map 2 and they still were quite demolished by Liquid. I don’t think or am saying that Complexity is as good as Liquid, but I think if NaVi plays as poorly as they did yesterday, this could easily go south for them in a hurry.
Astralis (Ranked 1st In world) @ G2 (Ranked 9th in World)
Betting Odds: Astralis -240/G2 +175
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under 120
*This is a best of three upper bracket semi-finals match for the BLAST Premiere Event.
*No shock here that both of these teams are fresh off nice wins in their most recent matches to re-start this Event. Both were taken the full distance in those matches as Astralis staved off Evil Geniuses on the third map, while the same was said for G2 as they fended off FURIA in three maps, as well.
*Astralis For the Event: Xyp9X 1.26 Rating, device 1.22, gla1ve 1.20, Magisk 1.13, dupreeh 1.08.
*G2 For the Event: NiKo 1.31 Rating, kennyS 1.19, nexa 1.06, AmaNEk 1.00, huNter 0.92.
*Astralis Over the Last Three Months of Play (69 Maps): device 1.23 Rating, dupreeh 1.08, Magisk 1.07, Xyp9x 1.03, gla1ve 1.01.
*G2 Over the Last Three Months of Play (49 Maps): NiKo 1.19 Rating, huNter 1.05, kennyS 1.04, AmaNEk 0.98, nexa 0.98.
H2H Data:
*These two squads have faced off eight total times in 2020 leading up to this match, and Astralis has won six of the eight matches played, including two of the last two matches, and both by sweeps. Only two matches of the eight played went to three maps.
*Astralis vs G2 (18 Maps): device +87 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.27 Rating. Dupreeh +58 K-D Diff, 1.21 K-D, 1.11 Rating. Xyp9x (15 maps) +20 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.07 Rating. Magisk +11 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.09 Rating.
*G2 vs Astralis (18 Maps): NiKo (15 Maps) +29 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.14 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Overpass for G2. Over the last four matches played, Dust2 was in all five, Inferno was in all four of the five, Nuke was in three. I think there is a good chance we see Dust2 and Inferno once again here.
*Astralis on Inferno (19 Maps): device 1.27 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 89.1 ADR. Magisk 1.12, dupreeh 1.08, Xyp9x 1.02, gla1ve 1.00. On Dust2 (16 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 81.2 ADR. Dupreeh 1.14, Xyp9x 1.07, gla1ve 1.04, Magisk 1.03.
*G2 on Dust2 (13 Maps): NiKo 1.33 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.53 IMP, 96.9 ADR. kennyS 1.12, huNter 1.03, nexa 0.98, AmaNEk 0.97. On Inferno (9 Maps): NiKo 1.13 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 86.7 ADR. kennyS 1.02, nexa 0.96, AmaNEk 0.92, huNter 0.85.
Analysis: I know that Astralis is easily the favorite here and they “should” take care of business in this match, but my gut tells me this match will be much closer than expected. I think if G2 can find a way to take their map pick of Dust2, they likely have a shot at not just taking it to three maps obviously but winning this match as a nice dog. They looked really good on Inferno against FURIA winning it 16-12 with it being FURIA’s map choice, and they are likely practicing up even more for this one against Astralis. Like G2 as a value dog in this match.
Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 8th in World)
Betting Odds: Vitality -270/Liquid +195
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -165
*This is a best of three upper bracket semi-final match for the BLAST Premiere Event
*These two teams came away with wins in their matches as listed above, and both swept their first match to boot. This should be a very good match today, and I think Liquid has come to play now with the addition of FalleN. Liquid stunned NaVi really good in their first match, but the real test is this match right here against the heavy-weight Fighting ZywOo’s.
*Vitality For the Event: ZywOo 1.49 Rating, RpK 1.25, shox 1.20, misutaaa 1.10, apEX 1.09
*Liquid For the Event: NAF 1.46, EliGe 1.16, Grim 1.08, FallenN 1.06, Stewie2K 0.87.
*Vitality Over the Last Three Months of Play (56 Maps): ZywOo 1.31 Rating, Nivera 1.18 (24 Maps), shox 1.12, misutaaa 1.06, RpK 1.03, apEX 1.02.
*Liquid Over the Last Three Months of Play (32 Maps): NAF 1.14 Rating, EliGe 1.12, Grim 1.08, FalleN 1.06, Stewie2K 0.96.
H2H Data:
*These two squads have not played a match in 2020, nor 2021, and with Liquid using a few new players in that span of time, I don’t want to use 2019 data.
MAPS:
*The first two ban matches for this map should include Train for Liquid, and Mirage for Vitality. Liquid has been going with Inferno mainly as their first pick lately, while Vitality is going with Dust2.
*Vitality on Dust2 (13 Maps): ZywOo 1.46 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.56 IMP, 94.8 ADR. Misutaaa 1.25 (was subbed for Nivera yesterday on this map), shox 1.07, apEX 1.05, RpK 0.95. On Inferno (12 Maps): ZywOo 1.32 Rating, misutaaa 1.17, RpK 1.16, apEX 1.12, shox 0.92.
*Liquid on Inferno (9 Maps): FalleN (1 Map) 1.20 Rating, Elige 1.14 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 78.2 ADR. NAF 1.05, Stewie2K 0.96, Grim 0.91. On Dust2 (5 Maps): Grim 1.28 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 83.0 ADR. EliGE 1.26, stewie2K 1.17, NAF 1.15.
Analysis: I just think it is crazy to bet against Vitality at this point in time, they are a well-oiled machine and just got their warm-up out of the way against Complexity last match. Liquid will be riding a high of confidence, but I have to side with the favorite in this match, and to be quite honest, we could see Vitality come in a bit less-owned due to how badly Liquid destroyed NaVi. Sets up perfectly for tourney stacks of VIT in my opinion.
*TOP STACKS: Vitality, G2, NaVi, Astralis
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: G2
*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, NiKo, device, kennyS, s1mple, electronic, dupreeh
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: shox, blameF, Xyp9x, RpK, AmaNEk, apEX, gla1ve