CS:GO DFS Playbook – BLAST Premiere Global Final 2020 (3-Match)
Vitality (Ranked 2nd in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 12th in World)
Betting Odds: Vitality -665/Complexity +410
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +155/Under -205
*This is a best of three upper bracket quarter-final match for the BLAST Premiere Event.
*As Complexity still is without Poizon, they have a new player in JUGI taking over for them after the break. Vitality continues to use a 6-man rotation with Nivera, so we always have to keep that in mind when analyzing the maps these teams may play. Nivera tends to play Inferno, Dust2, and has played Nuke. As for recent form, Vitality finished off winning three of their five prior matches, but had dropped two in their last three before breaking to Astralis and BIG both in 1-2 decisions. Complexity had been swept four out of their past five matches and beat FaZe as their only win in a 2-1 ending.
*Vitality Over the Last Three Months of Play (54 Maps): ZywOo 1.31 Rating, Nivera 1.19 (23 Maps), shox 1.12, misutaaa 1.06, RpK 1.02, apEX 1.02.
*Complexity Over the Last Three Months of Play (35 Maps): blameF 1.18 Rating, k0nfig 1.15, JUGI 1.11 (4 Maps), jks 1.01, RUSH 0.94.
H2H Data:
*These two squads have an extensive history in clashes where Vitality holds a 5-3 record in best of three matches over Complexity in 2020. Vitality has won four of the last four matches played, and three were via the 2-0 sweep, including the last two-straight.
*Vitality vs Complexity (19 Maps): ZywOo +110 K-D Diff, 1.36 K-D, 1.29 Rating. Shox +14 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.06 Rating. Nivera (6 Maps): +16 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.16 Rating.
*Complexity vs Vitality (19 Maps): k0nfig +20 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.10 Rating. Only positive player for the sample. blameF next at -7 K-D Diff.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train by Vitality and Inferno by Complexity. The typical first maps chosen by these two teams lately are Nuke for Complexity and Dust2 for Vitality.
*Vitality on Dust2 (12 Maps): ZywOo 1.43 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.53 IMP, 93.2 ADR. Misutaaa 1.25, Nivera 1.19, shox 1.06, apEX 1.06, RpK 0.95. On Nuke (13 Maps): ZywOo 1.27 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 83.3 ADR. Shox 1.16, Nivera 1.13, apEX 0.97, misutaaa 0.92, RpK 0.87.
*Complexity on Nuke (9 Maps): blameF 1.33 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 86.7 ADR. Jks 1.08, k0nfig 1.02, RUSH 0.97. On Dust2 (8 Maps): k0nfig 1.10 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 81.1 ADR. blameF 1.02, jks 0.96, RUSH 0.76.
Analysis: I think Complexity is going to struggle here. Vitality is easily, and arguably just as good as Astralis and I really believe that. Complexity has run into many issues with the departures of both oBo and poizon, and even though they managed to acquire jks, we have not seen the jks from 100 Thieves, yet. They will need him to take on a larger role on this team if they want to be successful, oh and obviously find a secure 5th player. I got Vitality 2-0 here.
NaVi (Ranked 3rd in World) @ Liquid (Ranked 8th in World)
Betting Odds: NaVi -250/Liquid +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -110/Under -120
*This is a best of three upper bracket quarter-final match in the BLAST Premiere Event.
*Obviously if you have not paid much attention to the CS scene over the break, then you may not be aware that Team Liquid signed FalleN during that break. FalleN is a Brazilian CS god. He’s an original OG in CS and he is VERY good. This is really some interesting stuff that we will watch in this match, as we get s1mple vs FalleN, and I CAN’T WAIT. *NOTE – I am not sure if B1T is still a 6th man in the NaVi rotation, but it still is a possibility.
*As for recent form, NaVi literally swept everyone right before the break, except Astralis, which was the only two losses they recorded out of their last five matches before the break. Liquid actually lost to Astralis 3-0 in the Grand Final of the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event in their most recent match before the break and had swept three of their prior for leading up to that loss to Astralis.
*NaVi Over the Last Three Months of Play (52 Maps): s1mple 1.29 Rating, electronic 1.12, Perfecto 1.00, flamie 0.98. Boombl4 0.92.
Liquid Over the Last Three Months of Play (30 Maps): EliGe 1.12 Rating, NAF 1.11, Grim 1.08, Stewie2K 0.96.
H2H Data:
*These two teams faced off twice in 2020 with NaVi sweeping both matches. However, the matches were close with Liquid recording at least 10 or more rounds on all four maps.
*NaVi vs Liquid (4 Maps): s1mple +33 K-D Diff, 87.9 ADR, 1.35 Rating. Perfecto +7 K-D Diff, 69.6 ADR, 1.10 Rating. Flamie +4 K-D Diff, 80.7 ADR, 1.11 Rating.
*Liquid vs NaVi (4 Maps): EliGE +19 K-D Diff, 94.5 ADR, 1.25 Rating. NAF +6 K-D Diff, 78.7 ADR, 1.16 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train for Liquid and Vertigo for NaVi. The typical first maps chosen for these two squads lately include Inferno by Liquid and Nuke for NaVi.
*NaVi on Nuke (14 Maps): s1mple 1.37 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 91.8 ADR. Electronic 1.14, flamie 1.11, Perfecto 1.07, Boombl4 0.97. On Inferno (10 Maps): s1mple 1.30 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 84.6 ADR. Electronic 1.15, flamie 0.96, Perfecto 0.94, Boombl4 0.90.
*Liquid on Inferno (8 Maps): EliGe 1.12 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 78.1 ADR. NAF 0.98, Stewie2K 0.97, Grim 0.90. On Nuke (7 Maps): NAF 1.32 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 89.0 ADR. EliGe 1.30, Grim 1.09, Stewie2K 0.98.
Analysis: I am very interested to see what FalleN can do in this roster. I think this is easily the match I want to see the most on this slate. We have a team that comes into this one in great form and just added FalleN, and we have literally the 2nd or 3rd best team in the World in NaVi. I have a good feeling this one goes three maps.
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 18th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 7th in World)
Betting Odds: Evil Geniuses -145/FURIA +110
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115
*This is a best of three lower bracket first round match in the BLAST Premiere Event.
*Evil Geniuses had a really tough draw in getting Astralis in the first match of the upper bracket quarter-finals matches and they were able to at least take the best team in the world into a third map, losing 1-2. FURIA also played a very good match yesterday fresh off their break as they debuted their new 5th in the replacement of HEN1 in honda. However, they were losers as well, but did also take it to three maps against G2 in a 1-2 loss.
*Evil Geniuses Over the Last Three Months (15 Maps): Ethan 1.13 Rating, Tarik 1.08, CeRq 1.02, Brehze 1.02, Stanislaw 0.98.
*FURIA Over the Last Three Months of Play (41 Maps): yuurih 1.15 Rating, KSCERATO 1.11, VINI 0.97, arT 0.95, honda 0.95.
H2H Data:
*These two teams have played numerous times in 2020, nine times to be exact. FURIA has won four of the past four, and all four were sweeps. Evil Geniuses literally won all five prior to that winning streak for FURIA, being the most recent.
*FURIA vs EG (21 Maps): KSCERATO +68 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.14 Rating. yuurih +59 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.13 Rating.
*EG vs FURIA (21 Map): Brehze +31 K-D Diff, 1.08 K-D, 1.05 Rating. (Only positive player for the sample, CeRq next at -6 K-D Diff)
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Mirage for Evil Geniuses. The first two maps typically chosen first lately have been Inferno for FURIA and Nuke for EG.
*FURIA on Inferno (12 Maps): yuurih 1.21 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 80.8 ADR. VINI 1.17, KSCERATO 1.05, arT 0.93. On Nuke (11 Maps): KSCERATO 1.08, arT 0.99, VINI 0.88.
*Evil Geniuses on Nuke (14 Maps): Ethan 1.15 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 78.3 ADR. Brehze 1.14, Tarik 1.08, CeRq 1.03, Stanislaw 1.01. On Inferno (18 Maps): Ethan 1.26 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 85.1 ADR. Brehze 1.23, Tarik 1.18, CeRq 1.17, Stanislaw 1.07.
Analysis: I think we can easily think that EG is a bit sour about how FURIA has ran the table on them over the past four matches, and I honestly think EG catches FURIA in a good spot here, as they are with a new face and the team chemistry isn’t exactly there yet.
*TOP STACKS: Vitality, Evil Geniuses
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS: Liquid
*TOP CPT PLAYS: ZywOo, s1mple, Brehze, Ethan, shox, EliGe, NAF, yuurih
*TOP FLEX PLAYS: Perfecto, k0nfig, blameF, CeRq, FalleN