CS:GO DFS Playbook – Vulkan Fight Series 1.13.2021 (2-Match Wednesday/Thursday)

Winstrike (Ranked 43rd in World) @ Gambit (Ranked 13th in World) Wednesday 7:10 AM ET:

Betting Odds: Gambit -625/Winstrike +395

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +170/Under -240

*This is a best of three quarter-final match for the Vulkan Fight Series Event

*Need to note – Gambit has not played a match since December 16th

*Winstrike is fresh off a 2-1 win over Nexus, in which they dropped the first map and handled business on the final two maps played, but there was a bit of rust there, which I think we should consider here for Gambit. Gambit had won three-straight sweeping matches before their break over forZe, K23, and Dignitas and their top-15 World rank came from a really nice run in the DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Event after taking down both Cloud9 and Complexity before dropping an 0-2 loss to Astralis.

*Winstrike for the Event: El1an 1.24 Rating, NickelBack 1.19, Lack1 1.15, n0rb3r7 1.10, neaLaN 0.89.

*Gambit has yet to play in this event as they were already set with byes to the quarter-finals

*Winstrike Over the Last Month of Play (23 Maps): El1an 1.27 Rating, Lack1 1.25, n0rb3r7 1.18, NickelBack 1.15, neaLaN 1.09.

*Gambit Over the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): Ax1Le 1.27 Rating, Hobbit 1.25, Sh1ro 1.16, nafany 1.05, interz 1.01

H2H Data:

*These two teams played once in 2020 in the IEM New York 2020 CIS Event and Gambit won both maps – Overpass 16-11 and Train 16-4, so one could say that this is a bit of a revenge narrative for Winstrike.

*Top Players for Winstrike vs Gambit (2 Maps): E1lan 40 Kills, four assists, 30 Deaths, +10 K-D Diff – 1.20 Rating/83.7 ADR.

*Top Players for Gambit vs Winstrike (2 Maps): Ax1Le 42 Kills, eight assists, 29 Deaths, +13 K-D Diff – 1.43 Rating/105.0 ADR. Hobbit 39 Kills, three assists, 26 Deaths, +13 K-D Diff – 1.32 Rating/83.0 ADR. Sh1ro 33 Kills, 14 assists, 20 Deaths, +13 K-D Diff – 1.29 Rating/76.5 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Inferno for Winstrike and Nuke for Gambit. The typical first maps chosen lately for these two squads includes Overpass for Gambit (have won roughly 95% of their last 16 attempts here, including a 10-map win streak, compared to 64% for Winstrike over their last 14), and Dust2 for Winstrike (both hold a 75% win-rate here over 8 and 12 map samples, Winstrike on four-map win streak here to boot). These two maps make the most sense, seeing as how Winstrike decided to play Train in their most recent meeting in the IEM Event, and they lost that map terribly. Think we see Dust2/Vertigo for Winstrike and Overpass for Gambit.

*Winstrike on Dust2 (8 Maps): El1an 1.53 Rating, 0.98 KPR, 1.90 IMP, 102.7 ADR. N0rb3r7 1.27, NickelBack 1.04, neaLaN 1.01, Lack 1 0.95. On Overpass (14 Maps): El1an 1.22 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 81.9 ADR. N0rb3r7 1.21, Lack1 1.10, neaLaN 1.09, NickelBack 1.02.

*Gambit on Overpass (16 Maps): sh1ro 1.30 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 78.1 ADR. Ax1Le 1.29, Hobbit 1.27, interz 1.13, nafany 1.12. On Dust2 (12 Maps): Hobbit 1.26 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.34 IMP, 87.5 ADR. Sh1ro 1.22, Ax1Le 1.16, nafany 1.08, interz 0.94.

ANALYSIS: I know that Winstrike is a pretty huge dog here in this match, but I truly thing that Winstrike got their rust knocked off in their last match and they should be focused and ready to play this match. I could see Winstrike jumping on Gambit quick and early, and if they can get out to an early lead – I think they have a more than likely chance of taking this match the full distance. Will be looking for El1an, n0rb3r7, Lack1 to carry the squad here. These two teams are pretty evenly matched statistics-wise with Winstrike bringing on n0rb and neaLaN.

 

NaVi Junior (Ranked 47th in World) @ Nemiga (Ranked 25th in World) Thursday 1:00 PM ET

Betting Odds: Nemiga -155/NaVi Jr +120

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145

*This is a best of three quarter-final match in the Vulkan Fight Series Event

*Note – Nemiga hasn’t played since December 11th, so could potentially by a bit rusty as mentioned before.

*Nemiga comes into this one in pretty bad recent form before taking their long break as they had dropped four of their prior five matches played with their lone win a 2-1 decision over sAw. They did run into some tough competition against Gambit (0-2), North (1-2), and G2 (0-2), but still were not as competitive as expected. NaVi Jr comes into this one fresh off a win in their return from break in their first match back in this Event over Buda 5, and that added a fourth match to their current win streak.

*NaVi Jr For the Event: B1T 1.25 Rating, m0NESY 1.15, Gospadarov 1.10, kapacho 0.94, Topa 0.86.

*Nemiga was gifted a quarter-final match here in this with byes so no Event data.

*NaVi Jr Over the Last Month of Play (10 Maps): m0NESY 1.17 Rating, B1T 1.13, kapacho 1.13, Gospadarov 1.06, Topa 1.00.

*Nemiga Has Not Play Over the Last Month, but for Last Three Months: lollipop2k 1.15 Rating, Jyo 1.07, mds 0.99, boX 0.99, speed4k 0.97.

H2H Data:

*These two teams have not played in 2020.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Nuke for NaVi Jr, and Train for Nemiga. The first two typical map choices for these two teams include Inferno for Nemiga (60% win rate there over last 15 attempts compared to just 43%-win rate over last seven for NaVi), and Dust2 for NaVi Jr (55% win rate over last 9 played there, just 33% for Nemiga over last 12 there)

*NaVi Jr on Dust2 (7 Maps): Gospadarov 1.31 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 86.9 ADR. M0NESY 1.19, B1T 1.07, kapacho 1.02, Topa 1.01. On Inferno (5 Maps): m0NESY (7 Maps) 1.21 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 83.1 ADR. Gospadarov 1.12 Rating, B1T 1.05, kapacho 0.99, Topa 0.97.

*Nemiga on Inferno (11 Maps): lollipop2k 1.25 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 86.1 ADR. Speed4K 1.15, Jyo 1.11, boX 1.11, mds 1.03. On Dust2 (9 Maps): lollipop2k 1.12 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 87.0 ADR. Jyo 1.04, mds 0.89, boX 0.87, speed4K 0.81.

ANALYSIS: I really like the dog in this match with NaVi Jr. I think their map pool is better suited for this match up and they are fresh off a win and have a nice winning-streak going currently. Nemiga has been off for over a month, were in pretty bad recent form before the break and likely will show a bit of rust in the early goings of this match and I am going to look for NJ to take advantage here.

 

*TOP STACKS: NaVi Junior, Winstrike/Gambit (in that order)

*TOP PLAYS: m0NESY (This kid is only 15), Gospadarov, BIT, Ax1Le, Sh1ro, El1an, Lack1