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CS:GO DFS Playbook – Vulkan Fight Series 1.11.2021 (2-Matches)

Nexus (Ranked 44th in World) @ Winstrike (Ranked 53rd in World)

Betting Odds: Winstrike -255/Nexus +185

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160

*This is a best of three match in the first round of the playoffs for the Vulkan Fight Series.

*It is worth noting that all of CS has been on break for mainly 2 weeks over the Holidays, as these two teams haven’t been in action since the 27th of December. Could be a bit of rust starting out.

*Recent form is a bit out the window seeing as how these two teams have been on a decent break, however, Nexus had won three of their prior five matches played, while Winstrike comes into this one riding a 5-match winning streak and have looked really good in this Event, obviously.

*Winstrike For the Event: El1an 1.31 Rating, NickelBack 1.19, Lack1 1.15, n0rb3r7 1.12, neaLaN 0.91.

*Nexus For the Event: iM 1.14 Rating, XELLOW 1.11, SEMINTE 1.05, BTN 0.96, ragga 0.93.

*Winstrike Over the Last Month of Play (23 Maps): El1an 1.31 Rating, Lack1 1.23, n0rb3r7 1.18, NickelBack 1.14, neaLaN 1.11.

*Nexus Over the Last Month of Play (10 Maps): iM 1.14 Rating, XELLOW 1.11, SEMINTE 1.05, BTN 0.96, ragga 0.93.

*These two teams have not faced each other in recent memory.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Overpass for Nexus and Inferno for Winstrike. Nexus has been picking Mirage as their typical first map selection roughly 50% of the time lately, while Winstrike has been choosing Dust2 as their first pick lately BUT have a 4-map win streak going on Nuke coming into this one, as well. I could easily see Winstrike going with Nuke, as it is a map that they are winning at a 60% clip, while Nexus has only managed a lowly 20%-win rate over their last 10 tries here. I think we could see Mirage and Nuke for this match.

*Winstrike on Nuke (18 Maps): El1an 1.31 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.44 IMP, 89.4 ADR. N0rb3r7 1.10, Nickelback 1.07, Lack1 1.02, neaLaN 0.97. On Mirage (7 Maps): Lack1 1.23 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.28 IMP, 84.3 ADR. NickelBack 1.20, El1an 1.09, neaLaN 1.00, n0rb3r7 0.98.  

*Nexus on Mirage (26 Maps): iM 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 89.3 ADR. XELLOW 1.19, SEMINTE 1.10, ragga 1.07, BTN 0.99. On Nuke (10 Maps): iM 1.08 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 82.8 ADR. BTN 0.90, XELLOW 0.88, SEMINTE 0.83, ragga 0.76.

ANALYSIS: Winstrike is just the better overall team here from player-to-player comparison. Winstrike is basically two good teams that have combined with bringing on n0rb3r7 and neaLaN. Nexus has a couple of good players in iM and XELLOW, but I feel Winstrike has the edge on the maps projected, while also having much more star-power in guys like El1an, Lack1, NickelBack, and n0rb3r7. Will be on the chalk here in Winstrike.

 

Budapest Five (Ranked 45th in World) @ NaVi Junior (Ranked 55th in World)

Betting Odds: NaVi Junior -240/Buda 5 +175

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +115/Under -155

*This is a best of three match in the first round of the playoffs for Vulkan Fighting Series Event.

*Same story here for these two teams as they have both been off on Holiday break since around the 27th on Jan.

*Recent form has been good for both squads here, Buda 5 come into this one on a four-match win streak and have won four of last five prior matches, with NaVi Junior also winning four of their last five matches while on a three-match win streak of their own. (*NOTE – NaVi Jr playing with stand-in m0NESY)

*Buda 5 For the Event: torzsi 1.26 Rating, fleav 1.11, kory 1.08, kolor 1.05, Coolio 0.94.

*NaVi Junior For the Event: B1T 1.27 Rating, Gospadarov 1.19, m0NESY 1.06, kapacho 0.96, Topa 0.81.

*Buda 5 Over the Last Month of Play (18 Maps): torzsi 1.22 Rating, fleav 1.06, kolor 1.05, kory 1.05, Coolio 0.90.

*NaVi Junior Over the Last Month of Play (9 Maps): Kapacho 1.13 Rating, Gospadarov 1.13, m0NESY 1.09, B1T 1.08, Topa 0.98.

*These two squads have no prior Head-to-Head matches played recently.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Overpass for Buda 5, and Nuke for NaVi Junior (which happens to be the first map typically chosen by Buda 5). Buda 5 will likely be picking a secondary map here and I think they will likely go with Mirage, as it has been their best map lately winning it nearly 90% of their last 8 tries there. I think we see Dust2 for NaVi Junior for their map selection.

*Buda 5 on Mirage (8 maps): torzsi 1.27 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 81.7 ADR. Kory 1.17, kolor 1.11, fleav 1.09, Coolio 0.94. On Dust2 (7 Maps): fleav 1.09 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.09 IMP, 85.0 ADR. Torzsi 0.98, kolor 0.96, kory 0.88, Coolio 0.78,

*NaVi Junior on Dust2 (7 Maps): Gospadarov 1.37 Rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.50 IMP, 92.3 ADR. M0NESY 1.10, B1T 1.07, kapacho 1.03, Topa 0.95. On Mirage (3 Maps): B1T 1.14 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 0.97 IMP, 82.5 ADR. Kapacho 1.01, Gospadarov 1.00, m0NESY 0.92, Topa 0.73.

ANALYSIS: I want to side with the favorite here in NaVi, and I do think that the maps have a bit of merit in their favor, but I do think that Buda 5 can win Mirage, and if they do this is easily going three maps and could be anyone’s match. I think Buda 5 are likely a contrarian play on this slate, and I do think they have the better chance at taking this match the full distance.

 

*TOP STACKS: Winstrike (very chalky likely, but easy 2-0 potential), Buda 5 (tournament play here but upside), NaVi Junior (If this match goes three maps, a game stack could easily ship everything).

*TOP PLAYS: El1an, NickelBack, Lack1, torzsi, B1T, Gospadarov, fleav