Welcome back to the Fantasy Alarm NBA DFS Value Vault! We have a seven-game main slate on tap for tonight in the NBA, and there is quite a bit of news we are waiting on, but luckily for us, I have already identified some over value spots that we can look to take advantage of on today’s slate!
DRAFTKINGS
1.) Will Barton SF (DEN) $5,400 –
Many are going to scroll right over Barton here at his price on today’s slate and I think that is quite the big mistake. Barton played a whopping 36 minutes in the Nugget’s previous game with Michael Porter Jr. hitting the shelf due to health and safety protocols and is likely expected to miss multiple games as a result. Barton had a horrible shooting night in this game, shooting just 1-for-7 from the field, and 0-2 from the perimeter. He still managed to top 18 fantasy points with just two points, five boards, four dimes, one steal and a block in that game. That’s what you are going to get with Barton, a guy that can do it all and contribute in multiple categories, and what better way to get him going than a date with Minnesota, who are allowing the 7th most DraftKings fantasy points to opposing SFs so far on the season? In the games that Barton has seen at least 29 or more minutes on the season, he has posted 31, 28, and 18 DK fantasy points, so we see that there is definitely a little room for some upside in his price here today, and not to mention, this is a major pace-up spot here for the Nuggets in Minnesota, as they are sitting at the 9th fastest PACE in the league currently.
2.) Gary Trent Jr. SG/SF (POR) $4,500 –
Trent Jr. returns to the floor of play today and carries no injury designation in doing so! Trent Jr. missed the last pair of games with a calf strain, but the couple of days off have alleviated him of the strain and he is back and ready to go. With Rodney Hood hitting the shelf once again, the Blazers will be a bit thin again at the wing spot and Trent Jr. should get his usual 24-26 minutes. In the games that Trent Jr. has played at least 24 minutes in, he has put up 23.5 and 36.8 DraftKings fantasy points as a result. Tonight, the Blazers travel into the Bay area to take on the Warriors, who are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing SGs on the season so far. We know that Trent Jr.’s specialty is the three-ball and he showed against the Lakers the last time he played what can happen when he gets hot, as he went 7-for-11 from the perimeter in that game and shot 10-of-14 from the field. Think we have some upside for Trent Jr. here at his price on DK.
2.) Patty Mills PG (SA) $3,700 –
Going right back to the Mills well here with Derrick White hitting the shelf once again. Mills has been getting really good run over the past four games, as he has averaged approximately 25 minutes a game, while also averaging roughly 23 fantasy points over that four-game span. With white now hitting the shelf again, this should allow Mills to continue to be the primary back-up PG to Dejounte Murray . Mills has been an excellent source of points, scoring in double-figures in all five games played, while also contributing with a handful of rebounds and assists. His three-point upside is really what we are after here for DraftKings, as he roughly 70% of his shot attempts this season have come via the three-pointer.
FANDUEL:
1.) Brandon Clarke PF (MEM) $5,000 –
Clarke really didn’t get much of an increase in salary after getting the starting nod with Grayson Allen on the shelf for the Grizzly’s last game against the Hornets. Clarke was anointed the starting role at PF alongside JoVal, and he was also granted 31 minutes on the floor, which in return resulted in a 28.3 FanDuel outing on a 15 point, four rebounds, three assist, and two block day. Grayson Allen is “questionable” to play today, and in the event that his ankle is not ready to go again, I could easily see the Grizzlies rolling this starting five line up out once again against the much bigger frontcourt of the Lakers. Clarke carried a respectable 19.4% usage rate in the previous game, and if he does get the starting nod once again here today, he will bring some nice value on FanDuel with his blocks and steals upside.
2.) Naz Reid PF (MIN) $4,900 –
Going with another value PF here as I think you will need one of these guys to pair up with an Anthony Davis on FanDuel as the position is pretty bleak as far as top-priced options other than AD. Reid continues to fill in nicely with KAT being absent still from the Minnesota team. Reid’s minutes haven’t been the most consistent with KAT out, as he has played 27, 19, and 24 over the last three games, but he has been productive in those minutes as he has averaged a bit more than 1 FP/M with 28, 16.1, and 32.7 FanDuel fantasy points for that span. However, he is carrying a modest 19.4$ usage rate for the last three games, while scoring in double-figures all three as well, grabbing three, five, and six boards, while swatting two shots and swiping three steals. He has value on FanDuel with his defensive upside, and they will likely need him against the Nugget’s frontcourt today.
3.) Derrick Jones Jr. SF (POR) $4,000 –
Jones Jr. is fresh off a 37.1 FanDuel fantasy point effort spread across 32 minutes of action on the floor in the Blazers last game against the Warriors, which is the same team they will face today except in Golden State. Jones Jr., has been receiving tons of minutes so far to start the season, playing at least 32 or more in his last four straight. The Warriors are allowing the third MOST FanDuel fantasy points to opposing SFs on the season so far, and we see exactly why with Jones Jr.’s last game, as he went for eight points, eight boards, three assists, and five steals. Jones Jr. is an excellent source of both steals and blocks and was just two points and two boards away from a double-double against this same Warriors team. No Rodney Hood will likely also keep Jones Jr. on the floor for 32+ minutes once again, and we know that minutes equal opportunity.