CS:GO DFS Playbook Vulkan Fight Series 2020 12.23.2020 (2-Match)
SG.pro (Ranked 83rd in World) @ Winstrike (Ranked 59th in World):
Betting Odds: Winstrike -255/SG.pro +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +120/Under -160
*This is Swiss round 3 (Teams with an 0-2 record) and the Loser is eliminated.
*Winstrike comes into this one in much better form and that can easily be indicated by the vegas odds on the match with them being a 2.5-to-1 favorite to win this match. Winstrike has won four of their prior five matches played, with their only loss coming to NaVi Junior in an 0-2 sweep. SG.pro has lost four-straight matches, with two of those being sweeps, but their competition hasn’t exactly been the easiest for the lower-tier of CS with losses to Buda 5s, Espada, and Illuminar in their last three matches.
*SG.pro For the Event: fame 1.22 Rating, kise 1.19, s1natoRRR 0.98, Diray 0.88, torrox 0.00 (torrox has played less than 5 matches with the new team)
*Winstrike For the Event: El1an 1.14 Rating, NickelBack 1.07, Lack1 1.05, neaLaN 0.95, n0rb3r7 0.74. (Both neaLaN and n0rb3r7 are both standing-in for Winstrike as well and have played less than 5 matches with the squad)
*Over the last Month of Play for SG.pro (16 Maps): fame 1.13 Rating, S1natoRRR 1.01, kise 1.01, Diray 0.95.
*Over the Last Month of Play for Winstrike (29 Maps): El1an 1.23 Rating, n0rb3r7 1.18, NickelBack 1.12, Lack1 1.12, neaLaN 1.05.
*These two teams have not played any recent H2H matches, and it likely wouldn’t matter much anyways with three new faces for both teams combined.
MAPS:
*The two likely ban maps for this match should include Inferno and Dust2. The first two maps chosen lately include Train for SG.pro and Vertigo for Winstrike.
*SG.pro on Train (11 Maps): fame 1.22 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 83.8 ADR. S1natoRRR 1.15, Diray 1.08, kise 0.96. On Vertigo (6 Maps): fame 1.36 Rating, 0.89 KPR, 1.65 IMP, 92.2 ADR. S1natoRRR 1.01, Diray 0.97, kise 0.97.
*Winstrike on Vertigo (10 Maps): El1an 1.29 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.45 IMP, 86.4 ADR. NickelBack 1.15, Lack1 1.07. On Train (13 Maps): El1an 1.23 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 82.9 ADR. Lack1 1.08, NickelBack 1.07, neaLaN 1.05, n0rb3r7 1.03.
ANALYSIS: I do believe that the right team is favored here, but the fact is that Winstrike has two players not from their core team, while SG.pro only has one. The positive note for Winstrike however, is that both of the players they picked up are from K23, and we know they are one of the better teams in the lower-tier of CS. I don’t think this one is as far off as the odds are saying, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up closer than expected. Fame is a stud and they have been at least competitive in their last three matches with two 1-2 results. I do favor Winstrike for an actual team win, but I think fantasy-wise, SG may have some value.
Lyngby Vikings (Ranked 72nd in World) vs Project X (Ranked 74th in World):
Betting Odds: Lyngby Vikings -120/Project X -110
Map Odds: Over 2.5 +105/Under -140
*This is Swiss round 3 (Teams with a 1-1 record)
*Project X comes into this one with a slight bit better current form as they have won two of their last three, however that loss was in their most recent match played against SKADE in a 1-2 result. The good news is that they swept the two prior matches against EC Kyiv and Unique. The Lyngby Vikings have dropped three straight over their prior three matches, but were to good opponents in LDLC, Illuminar, and Sinners.
*Lyngby Vikings For the Event: Cabbi 1.11 Rating, raalz 0.97, Maccen 0.86, Twinx 0.85, birdfromsky 0.82.
*Porject X For the Event: SENSEi 1.10 Rating, Sergiz 1.05, 7oX1C 1.00, w0nderful 0.97, Psycho 0.84. (w0nderful is a step-in for DemQQ and has played less than 5 matches with core)
*Over the Last Month of Play for Lyngby Vikings (23 Maps): Cabbi 1.05 Rating, raalz 1.01, Maccen 1.00, Twinx 0.96, birdfromsky 0.88.
*Over the Last Month of Play for Project X (11 Maps): SENSEi 1.27 Rating, w0nderful 1.17 (7 Maps), 7oXiC 1.05, Sergiz 1.01, Psycho 0.90.
*These two teams have no recent H2H matches played to analyze.
MAPS:
*The two ban maps we should see for this match include Dust2 for Project X and Train for Lyngby Vikings. The two maps that are getting chosen first lately include Vertigo and Inferno.
*Lyngby Vikings on Vertigo (12 Maps): birdfromsky 1.24 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 86.6 ADR. Maccen 1.16, raalz 1.13, Cabbi 1.12, Twinx 1.09. On Inferno (16 Maps): raalz 1.18 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 84.4 ADR. Cabbi 1.06, Maccen 0.99, Twinx 0.96, birdfromsky 0.94.
*Project X on Inferno (12 Maps): SENSEi 1.21 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.14 IMP, 72.0 ADR. W0nderful 1.12 Rating (2 Maps), Sergiz 1.07, Psycho 1.01, 7oX1C 0.97. On Vertigo (10 Maps): SENSEi 1.24 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.22 IMP, 75.8 ADR. Sergiz 1.16, 7oX1C 1.01, Psycho 0.98.
ANALYSIS: I believe this match will be the key to this slate. I think this match will be super close as the odds are indicating. I honestly think you could stack this match as a game-stack that I usually never recommend unless there is a 2-match slate like we have here. Both of these teams have some really good players and I would be looking to rotate them as main stacks. Using 3x3 and 3x2x1 line up constructions, using the 2x1 part of the 3x2x1 in the first match mainly in my opinion.
*Top Stacks: Lyngby Vikings (likely them or SG.pro will be the contrarian stack), Winstrike (will be the chalk), Project X
*Favorite Plays: El1an, Cabbi, raalz, n0rb3r7, SENSEi, w0nderful, fame