CS:GO DFS Playbook Vulkan Fight Series 2020 12.22.2020 (2-Matches)
Sinners (Ranked 75th in World) @ Nexus (Ranked 51st in World):
Betting Odds: Sinners -215/Nexus +155
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -150
*This is a Swiss round 3 (Teams with a 2-0 record for Event). Winner advances to the playoffs.
*Sinners come into this one in slightly better form as they have won four of their last five matches, with three of those coming via the 2-0 sweep. Their only loss was to Poland. Nexus is fresh off a win over ex-ETHREAL and are on a 2-match winning streak of their own, but had dropped two matches prior to the streak to Apeks an Copenhagen Flames. (*Note – Sinners has a new face in oskar, who has played less than 5 matches with the core)
*Sinners For the Event: NEOFRAG 1.51 Rating, oskar 1.49, ZEDKO 1.28, beastik 1.12, SHOCK 0.96.
*Nexus For the Event: XELLOW 1.07 Rating, iM 1.06, SEMINTE 1.04, BTN 0.99, ragga 0.96.
*Sinners Over the Last Month of Play (12 Maps): NEOFRAG 1.35 Rating, oskar (6 Maps) 1.27, ZEDKO 1.15, beastik 0.99, SHOCK 0.96.
*Nexus Over the Last Month of Play (25 Maps): iM 1.05 Rating, XELLOW 1.02, ragga 0.91, SEMINTE 0.88, BTN 0.86.
*These two squads have played two best of three matches in 2020 so far with them both splitting a sweep apiece. Sinners (they did not have oskar here, but it was caNNiE) won the most recent at the DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Event with a 16-11 showing on Dust2 and a 16-4 result on Vertigo. Nexus swept them at the Flashpoint 1 Europe Qualifiers with 16-10 ending on Inferno and a 16-13 result on Mirage.
*Sinners vs Nexus (4 Maps): beastik +19 K-D Diff, 1.30 K-D, 1.25 Rating. ZEDKO +12 K-D Diff, 1.20 K-D, 1.10 Rating. SHOCK +9 K-D Diff, 1.15 K-D, 1.09 Rating.
*Nexus vs Sinners (4 Maps): No positive player stat-lines for this sample.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps we should see for this match should include Nuke for Nexus and Train for Sinners. The typical first maps chosen lately are Mirage for Nexus and Vertigo for Sinners. I believe there is a high chance we see both of these maps for this match.
*Sinners on Vertigo (9 Maps): ZEDKO 1.21 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.06 IMP, 77.8 ADR. SHOCK 1.16, NEOFRAG 1.15, beastik 1.11, oskar (no recent maps played here). On Mirage (8 Maps): NEOFRAG 1.28 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.46 IMP, 95.1 ADR. Oskar 1.25, ZEDKO 1.20, SHOCK 1.04, beastik 1.01.
*Nexus on Mirage (26 Maps): iM 1.23 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 90.0 ADR. XELLOW 1.20, SEMINTE 1.07, ragga 1.06, BTN 0.97. On Vertigo (9 Maps): iM 0.97 Rating, 0.67 KPR, 0.97 IMP, 78.8. ADR. XELLOW 0.97, SEMINTE 0.95, BTN 0.94, ragga 0.87.
ANALYSIS: I feel that the numbers for Nexus on Vertigo are very weak and they could very easily struggle quite a bit there in comparison to Sinner’s stats there. I could easily see Nexus winning Mirage, as they have won roughly 80% of their last 26 chances when playing there, so could easily see this match turn into a three-map affair. I still like Sinners even in this event.
Lilmix (Ranked 60th in World) @ VP.Prodigy (Ranked 92nd in World):
Betting Odds: Lilmix -255/VP.Prodigy +185
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140
*This is Swiss round 3 (Teams with a 1-1 record) for this Event.
*Neither team here comes into this match in great form, Lilmix were on a 2-game streak before losing in their most recent match against the Broderna145 team in an 0-2 result. VP.Prodigy were losers in their most recent match as well, losing to MBAPPEEEK in a 1-2 result, but had beat a decent Winstrike team before so in a 2-1 result. Both teams have only managed to string together two wins in their last five prior matches. (*Note – VP.Prodigy’s core lineup has only played 6 matches together as a whole)
*Lilmix For the Event: bq 1.19 Rating, isak 1.10, Svedjehed 1.09, b0denmaster 0.98, quix 0.89.
*VP.Prodigy For the Event: h1glaiN 1.17 Rating, Norwi 1.16, muR 1.09, awesome 0.95, mefixs 0.90.
*For the Last Month of Play for Lilmix (42 Maps): bq 1.08 Rating, Svedjehed 1.07, isak 1.05, b0denmaster 0.98, quix 0.93.
*For the Last Month of Play for VP.Prodigy (8 Maps): Norwi 1.08 Rating, h1glaiN 1.07, muR 1.03, awesome 0.92, mefixs 0.87.
*These two teams have no prior head-to-head matches played recently.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps we should see for this match include Nuke for Limix and Overpass for VP. The first maps chosen by these teams lately includes Mirage for Lilmix and Train for VP. Both of these maps present a small edge to their respective team as Mirage won by Lilmix 60% over last 20 tries, and Train won 60% over VP’s last five attempts (and it has been their most-played map over their six matches).
*Lilmix on Mirage (20 Maps): b0denmaster 1.10 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 73.4 ADR. Bq 1.09, Svedjehed 1.09, isak 1.00, quix 0.97. On Train (23 Maps): b0denmaster 1.11 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.19 IMP, 71.8 ADR. Svedjehed 1.05, isak 1.00, bq 0.99, quix 0.97.
*VP.Prodigy on Train (5 Maps): h1glaiN 1.46 Rating, 1.01 KPR, 1.49 IMP, 106.8 ADR (seems good for a small sample). Norwi 1.07, muR 1.01, mefixs 0.90, awesome 0.81. On Mirage (2 Maps): h1glaiN 1.10 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 84.6 ADR. Norwi 1.03, awesome 0.70, muR 0.68, mefixs 0.63.
ANALYSIS: It seems that VP.Prodigy is just a very new team with a new core construct and it looks as if they have one main star on the squad – h1glaiN. Lilmix has far more maps played and have shown really good numbers lately and likely a bit more experienced, but I don’t just think they run away with this match. I think it stays closer than the odds show, and I think the leverage could be on VP here.
*Top Stacks: Sinners, Lilmix
*Top Contrarian Stack: VP.Prodigy
*Top Plays: ZEKDO, NEOFRAG, h1glaiN, Norwi, b0denmaster, Svedjehed, iM