CS:GO DFS Playbook Vulkan Fight Series 2020 12.21.2020 (2-Match)
Ex-ETHEREAL (Ranked 45th in World) @ Budapest Five (Ranked 66th in World):
Betting Odds: ex-ETHEREAL -125/Budapest Five -105
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +105/Under -140
*This is Swiss round 3 (Teams with a 1-1 record for Event)
*Ex-ETHEREAL come into this one on a 2-match skid after losing 1-2 at Nexus, while also sustaining a sweep at the hands of forZe but had won their prior three in a row to the two losses. Buda 5’s are on a two-match winning streak, and just swept a Grand Final against BEE 3-0 in the Magyar Esport Bajnoksag 2020 Event two matches prior to this one, including a 2-1 victory in their most recent match against SG.Pro.
*ex-ETHEREAL For the Event: zorte 1.24 Rating, KaiRON- 1.16, KENSI 1.12, R0b3n 1.01, PASHANOJ 0.96
*Budapest Five For the Event: torzsi 1.15 Rating, kolor 1.06, fleav 1.02, kory 0.98, Coolio 0.94.
*ex-ETHEREAL Over the Last Month of Play (35 Maps): zorte 1.22 Rating, KENSI 1.14, KaiR0N- 1.13, Rob3n 1.03, PASHANOJ 0.92.
*Budapest Five Over the Last Month of Play (27 Maps): torzsi 1.14 Rating, fleav 1.02, kolor 0.98, kory 0.91, Coolio 0.90.
*These two have played three times recently in 2020, but both were under different team names. Ex-ETHEREAL were “Unique” and had two different players on their team from these prior matches, while Budapest Five were “Salamander” at this time and also had two players that aren’t with the team any longer. Not going to use prior head-to-head history, as they two teams now have different make-ups.
MAPS:
*The first ban maps for this match should include Overpass go Buda 5’s and Vertigo for ex-ETHEREAL. Both teams have taken a liking to Nuke, so we can pencil that one in right off the bat, and a secondary map we will likely see is Mirage. Buda 5’s has won four-straight on Mirage and near 90% of their last seven tries there, but don’t be so quick to call this map as ETH has also won 71% of their last seven. I think another map we could likely see is Train, as this is a better map for ETH in the event that Buda 5’s gets the first map choice and go with Nuke, as it is their top first map choice lately and they hold a slight edge in success rate 54%>38% over ETH. I truly think the maps in this one will come down to who gets the first map pick, but I know for sure we will see Nuke, and the next map likely will be Mirage or Train. I think we see Nuke and Mirage, so going to go with these.
*Budapest Five On Nuke (13 Maps): torzsi 1.22 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 85.0 ADR. Fleav 1.09, kory 1.03, Coolio 0.97, kolor 0.93. On Mirage (7 Maps): torzsi 1.26 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 82.0 ADR. Fleav 1.13, kory 1.11, kolor 1.08, Coolio 0.95.
*ex-ETHEREAL on Mirage (8 Maps): zorte 1.15 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 76.7 ADR. KENSI 1.14, KaiR0N- 1.10, R0b3n 1.06, PASHANOJ 0.81. On Nuke (13 Maps): zorte 1.27 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 86.0 ADR. KENSI 1.09, R0b3n 1.00, KaiR0N- 0.99, PASHANOJ 0.91.
ANALYSIS: I believe I like Budapest Five here. I think the maps could easily go in their favor with Nuke being the main anchor. They just beat a pretty decent SG.Pro club, and also swept a Grand Final before that win as well, so I think they have played and beaten some decent competition lately, including a big Grand Final sweep.
MBAPPEEK (Ranked 7th in World) @ HellRaisers (Ranked 37th in World):
Betting Odds: HellRaisers -180/MBAPPEEK +135
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +110/Under -145
This is Swiss Round 3 (Teams with a 2-0 Record) and the Winner will advance to the Playoffs for Event.
*Both of these teams come into this match in decent form as they have a 2-0 record in the Event so far placing them in this match. MBAPPEEK have won four of their last five matches, with just one loss to PACT but it was an 0-2 sweep. HellRaisers were losers in their last match played against NaVI Junior, however they had won four-straight prior to the loss, so likely be looking at a bounce-back spot and the books obviously think so also with them being the largest favorite on the slate.
*MBAPPEEK For the Event: mar 1.18 Rating, REDSTAR 1.18, V1c7oR 1.11, dream3r 0.99, bubble 0.96
*HellRaisers For the Event: Kalinka 1.35 Rating, jR 1.22, Flarich 1.18, ProbLeM 1.14, JlaYm 0.99.
*MBAPEEK Over the Last Month of Play (5 Maps): mar 1.36 Rating, REDSTAR 1.17, v1c7oR 1.11, dream3r 0.93, bubble 0.90.
*HellRaisers Over the Last Month of Play (25 Maps): jR 1.13 Rating, ProbLeM 1.13, Flarich 1.11, Kalina 1.10, jlaYm 1.08.
*These two have no prior Head-to-Head history recently
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps that we should see for this match include Overpass for HellRaisers and Nuke for MBAPPEEK. The first maps typically chosen lately include Inferno for HellRaisers and Train for MBAPPEEK. HellRaisers own a slight edge on Nuke 50%>25%, while MBAPPEEK holds a slight success-rate edge on Train at 71%>65%. However, HellRaisers have played many, many more maps than MBAPPEEK this past month at 25 maps to just 5.
*MBAPPEEK on Train (3 Maps): v1c7oR 1.23 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 86.2 ADR. Mar 1.21 Rating, REDSTAR 1.20, dream3r 1.13, bubble 1.01. On Inferno (2 Maps): dream3r (3 Maps) 1.22 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 76.2 ADR. REDSTAR (6 Maps) 1.08 Rating, Mar 1.03, bubble 0.88, v1c7oR 0.81.
*HellRaisers on Inferno (13 Maps): ProbLeM 1.13 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 83.5 ADR. JlaYm 1.04, jR 1.03, Flarich 0.98, Kalinka 0.96. On Train (17 Maps): ProbLeM 1.22 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 84.8 ADR. jR 1.10, JlaYm 1.09, kalinka 1.05, Flarich 1.04.
ANALYSIS: I think the books are correct to make HellRaisers the favorite here. This team has played really well lately other than their last match loss, and MBAPPEEK is still a newly re-constructed team. I do think that HellRaisers will likely be the chalk on this slate.
*Top Stacks: HellRaisers, Budapest Five
*Top Plays (Not In Order): ProbLeM, torzsi, zorte, jR, mar, REDSTAR, fleav