CS:GO DFS Playbook IEM Global Challenge 2020 12.18.2020 (2-Match)
Vitality (Ranked 1st in World) @ Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World)
Betting Odds: Vitality -125/Astralis -100
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125
*This is a Group A Decider best of three match in the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.
*Astralis and Vitality meet again after having just played a three-map affair in the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Finals just days ago. Vitality won that meeting in a 2-1 result for the Grand Final win, SO you could say this is quite the revenge spot for Astralis. This also makes for the second time back-to-back that Vitality has beaten Astralis in their last two matches.
*Vitality For the Event: misutaaa 1.55 Rating, ZywOo 1.39, shox 1.24, RpK 1.08, apEX 1.03.
*Astralis For the Event: device 1.25 Rating, gla1ve 1.11, dupreeh 1.09, Xyp9x 1.02, Magisk 0.99 (bounce-back coming?)
*Over the Last Month of Play for Vitality (25 Maps): ZywOo 1.36 Rating, shox 1.16, misutaaa 1.14, RpK 1.12, apEX 1.01.
*Overt the Last Month of Play for Astralis (35 Maps): device 1.24 Rating, Magisk 1.09, dupreeh 1.08, Xyp9x 1.01, gla1ve 1.00.
*These two have played four matches recently in 2020, with Vitality winning the last two back-to-back, and Astralis winning the two prior.
*Vitality vs Astralis Over the Last Three Months (5-6 Maps): zywOo +28 K-D Diff, 1.32 K-D, 1.21 Rating. Misutaaa (5 Maps) +19 K-D Diff, 1.27 K-D, 1.28 Rating. apEX +12 K-D Diff, 1.14 K-D, 1.16 Rating.
*Astralis vs Vitality Over the Last Three Months (5-6 Maps): dupreeh +2 K-D Diff, 1.02 K-D, 1.05 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train for Vitality and Mirage for Astralis. The prior four matches we saw Dust2 all four times, Nuke three times, Vertigo twice and Inferno/Overpass once. Since Astralis tried to get cute in the Grand Final last meeting against VIT with Vertigo, I think we see Astralis go right back to their bread and butter with Nuke, and I think we see Dust2 for Vitality once again.
*Astralis on Nuke Over the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): device 1.38 Rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 94.5 ADR. Magisk 1.13, dupreeh 1.08, Xyp9x 1.00 (May see Bubzkji here), gla1ve 0.97. On Dust2 (8 Maps): device 1.33 Rating, 0.86 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 87.0 ADR. Magisk 1.20, gla1ve 1.16, Xyp9x 1.08.
*Vitality on Dust2 Over the Last Month of Play (6 Maps): ZywOo 1.47 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.54 IMP, 93.1 ADR. Shox 1.20, Nivera 1.11, apEX 1.05, RpK 0.95 (misutaaa hasn’t played this map over span). On Nuke (5 Maps): ZywOo 1.24 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 86.1 ADR. Nivera 1.08 (2 Maps), Shox 0.95, apEX 0.95, RpK 0.90, misutaaa 0.81 (didn’t play last match on Nuke)
ANALYSIS: Astralis off a loss AND another revenge opportunity has me licking my chops. This is not only the case, they are a DOG basically in this match, as well. I believe I will be using both studs in this match, but I will likely be 2-man stacking Astralis, as I feel they have more consistency with their players who can produce on any day compared to Vitality’s shifty roster.
FURIA (Ranked 6th in World) @ Liquid (Ranked
Betting Odds: FURIA -155/Liquid +120
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -100/Under -130
*This is a Group B Decider best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.
*FURIA For the Event: KSCERATO 1.20 Rating, HEN1 1.18, yuurih 1.05, VINI 1.03, arT 0.98.
*Liquid For the Event: Stewi2K 1.14 Rating, NAF 1.12, EliGe 1.10, Grim 1.03, Twistzz 0.83.
*Over the Last Month of Play for FURIA (31 Maps): HEN1 1.16 Rating, Yuurih 1.16, KSCERATO 1.14, VINI 1.03, arT 0.99.
*Over the Last Month of Play for Liquid (19 Maps): Grim 1.09 Rating, EliGe 1.06, NAF 1.05, Stewie2K 0.96, Twistzz 0.92.
*These two squads faced off in the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Showdown slate just about a month ago with FURIA taking down a 2-1 victory. That made four-straight wins in a row over Liquid for FURIA to boot. Three of the four matches played recently in 2020 made it to three maps.
*FURIA vs Liquid Over Last 3 Months (6 Maps): HEN1 +41 K-D Diff, 1.40 K-D, 1.28 Rating. Yuurih +11 K-D Diff, 1.10 K-D, 1.15 Rating. KSCERATO +13 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.07 Rating.
*Liquid vs FURIA Over Last 3 Months (6 Maps): EliGe +15 K-D Diff, 1.12 K-D, 1.17 Rating. Grim +7 K-D Diff, 1.06 K-D, 1.13 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for FURIA and Train for Liquid. Over the last four meetings between these two squads, we have seen Vertigo three times, Inferno three times, Nuke and Mirage twice. FURIA has been picking Inferno at almost a 50-% clip lately, so I wouldn’t think they would go away from it now. Liquid has been going with Mirage and Nuke around 20% lately, but Nuke has been a much better map for them lately to be specific. They have won 80% of their last 10 tries on Nuke (compared to just 44% on Mirage over L9), while FURIA sits with just a 44% success rate on Nuke over their last 18 opportunities. I believe we see Inferno and Nuke in this one.
*FURIA on Inferno Over the Last Month (9 Maps): VINI 1.25 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 84.7 ADR. Yuurih 1.23, HEN1 1.15, KSCERATO 1.11, arT 0.96. On Nuke (8 Maps): HEN1 1.18 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.03 IMP, 77.6 ADR. KSCERATO 1.08, arT 1.04, yuurih 1.04, VINI 0.98.
*Liquid on Nuke Over the Last Month (4 maps): NAF 1.20 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.10 IMP, 84.5 ADR. EliGe 1.13, Grim 1.12, twistzz 1.09, Stewie2K 0.99. On Inferno (5 Maps): EliGe 0.98 Rating, 0.64 KPR, 0.96 IMP, 67.4 ADR. Grim 0.94, Stewie2K 0.92, NAF 0.90, Twistzz 0.86.
ANALYSIS: Looking at Liquid’s latest numbers on Inferno are a bit worrisome in the event that FURIA does get this map choice. This match could easily go for a third map for the fourth time out of their five recent matches played. I think that FURIA can 2-0 sweep this match as well if Liquid doesn’t perform well on Nuke. Like FURIA here.
*Top Stacks: Astralis, FURIA
*Top Plays: ZywOo, device, dupreeh, HEN1, KSCERATO, yuurih
*Top Values: Magisk, Xyp9X, VINI, RpK