CS:GO DFS Playbook IEM Global Challenge 2020 (3-Match Slate)
Liquid (Ranked 17th in World) @ Heroic (Ranked 4th in World):
Betting Odds: Heroic -155/Liquid +120
Map Odds: 2.5 Over -105/Under -125
*This is a Group B opening best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.
*Neither one of these teams have played in around 10-12 days, so both teams should be rested up and ready to play here in this match. Liquid comes into this match on a three-match skid after losing 0-2 to Astralis in their most recent match played, also an 0-2 sweep to Mousesports, and a 1-2 result to FURIA. They should be looking to get back to winning ways. Heroic dropped their most recent match to GODSENT in a 1-2 result knocking them out of the DreamHack Masters Winter Event but had won the two prior matches to that one against Spirit 2-0, and c0ntact 2-0, as well. Recent form favors Heroic a smidge but expect Liquid to be prepared for this match.
*For the Last Month of Play for Heroic (16 Maps): stavn 1.15 Rating, cadiaN 1.09, TeSeS 1.09, niko 0.94, b0RUP 0.88.
*For the Last Month of Play for Liquid (15 Maps): Grim 1.11 Rating, EliGe 1.05, NAF 1.03, Twistzzz 0.95, Stewie2K 0.91.
*These two teams have no recently played head-to-head matches.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Train for Liquid. Both teams have been choosing Nuke as their first map selection lately, and it seems we will likely see a secondary map from one of these teams. I think the maps in this match will highly depend on who gets the first map selection. Heroic do like Nuke, but I could also easily see them wanting to play Vertigo, and with Liquid they have played a lot of Mirage lately in comparison to Nuke. The problem here is that both teams have a decently wide map pool. If I am thinking through this correctly however, the maps that make the most sense to me include Vertigo or Nuke for Heroic and Overpass. I think we likely see Nuke and Overpass.
*Heroic on Nuke (16 Maps): stavn 1.25 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 90.4 ADR. cadiaN 1.17, TeSeS 1.12, niko 1.11, b0RUP 0.94. On Overpass (10 Maps): cadiaN 1.08 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 0.97 IMP, 71.3 ADR. Stavn and TeSeS both 1.03, niko 1.02, b0RUP 0.85.
*Liquid on Overpass (6 Maps): Grim 1.27 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.18 IMP, 85.0 ADR. EliGe 1.18, NAF 1.17, Twistzzz 1.16, Stewie2K 0.86. On Nuke (8 Maps): NAF 1.37 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 93.9 ADR. EliGe 1.33, Twistzzz 1.20, Grim 1.19, Stewie2K 0.97.
ANALYSIS: I could easily see this match going three maps, and I think it has a more than likely chance of doing so. I think we could easily see these two split their map choices and then be left up to a decider. The books are giving a bit of credit to Heroic in this one, and they are a good team, but so is Liquid. This should be an overall good match, but if I don’t exactly have confidence to say with confidence that either will win. I do like Liquid for what it is worth.
Vitality (Ranked 1st in World) @ Complexity (Ranked 11th in World):
Betting Odds: Vitality -665/Complexity +410
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +160/Under -215
*This is a Group A elimination best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.
*Vitality is fresh off a loss on Tuesday in a 1-2 result to the BIG clan. This was likely just a good spot to fade Vitality, as they had just recently within days won the Grand Final of the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Finals. That’s neither here, nor there but what we can realize is that they are off a loss, they had won four prior matches in a row before the loss and they should bounce-back here against a struggling Complexity team. Complexity were Swept in back-to-back matches to Astralis and FURIA and swept in three of their last four matches played to boot. They continue to struggle as they are playing with a stand-in (ottoND) with the absence of poizon.
*Over the Last Month of Play for Vitality (23 maps): ZywOo 1.34 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.41 IMP, 86.2 ADR. Misutaaa 1.14, shox 1.13, RpK 1.12, apEX 0.98.
*Over the Last Month of Play for Complexity (21 Maps): blameF 1.20 Rating, k0nfig 1.19, jks 0.97, RUSH 0.91.
*These two teams are very familiar with each other playing five recent head-to-head matches in 2020 with Vitality winning three of three of the five, and the last three in a row, as well. Two of which via the sweep.
*Vitality vs Complexity (17 Maps): ZywOo +96 K-D Diff, 1.34 K-D, 1.27 Rating. Only positive player for the sample.
*Complexity vs Vitality (17 Maps): k0nfig +22 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.12 Rating. blameF +14 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.11 Rating.
MAPS:
*The first two ban maps we should see for this match include Inferno for Complexity and Train for Vitality. The first picks lately for these two squads typically have been Mirage and Dust2. In the last five matches played between these two, Mirage showed up in three of five, Vertigo in four of the five, and Nuke in three as well. Vertigo seems to be a map exploitation pick for Vitality and it has worked for them as well against Complexity. I think we see Vertigo and Mirage here.
*Vitality on Vertigo (9 Maps): ZywOo 1.20 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 80.2 ADR. Shox 1.12, misutaaa 1.08, RpK 0.97, apEX 0.93. On Mirage (8 Maps): ZywOo 1.44 Rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.78 IMP, 95.6 ADR. apEX 1.02, RpK 1.00, shox 0.93, misutaaa 0.91.
*Complexity on Mirage (15 Maps): k0nfig 1.19 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.38 IMP, 85.1 ADR. blameF 1.18, RUSH 0.88, jks 0.87. On Vertigo (8 Maps): blameF 1.26 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.39 IMP, 89.9 ADR. K0nfig 1.13, jks 1.07, RUSH 1.00.
ANALYSIS: The bad thing is that Complexity’s best numbers for the projected maps are on Vertigo, but they only beat Vitality on it in the once out of the four times they have played it H2H. I can’t think of a chance that Complexity steals a map here. They didn’t look good at all against Astralis, and I can’t seem them being much more competitive here with their roster struggles. I think Vitality sweeps this match, and so do the bookmakers.
BIG (Ranked 5th in World) @ Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World):
Betting Odds: Astralis -400/BIG +275
Map Odds: 2.5 Over +125/Under -170
*This is a Group A winners-bracket best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.
*BIG dealt Vitality a huge upset on Monday and will look to avenge yet another revenge spot here against Astralis, the team they lost 0-2 against before beating Vitality in their last match. Astralis bounced-back nicely after the Grand Final loss to Vitality with an easy 2-0 sweep over Complexity on Monday and have won four of their last five matches played.
*For the Last month of Play for BIG (35 Maps): syrsoN 1.13 Rating, XANTARES 1.11, tabseN 1.00, tiziaN 0.99, k1to 0.93.
*For the Last Month of Play for Astralis (33 Maps): device 1.26 Rating, Magisk 1.11, dupreeh 1.08, Xyp9x 1.02, gla1ve 1.00.
*These two teams have only played once so far in 2020 just a few days ago, where Astralis dealt the 2-0 sweep in the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Finals to move on to play Vitality in the Grand Final, so this loss for BIG likely looms a bit larger than most.
*Top Players for Astralis vs BIG (2 Maps): device +17 K-D Diff, 1.40 Rating, 88.6 ADR. Dupreeh +19 K-D Diff, 1.39 Rating, 84.5 ADR. Magisk +8 K- D Diff, 1.24 Rating, 88.8 ADR. Xyp9x +7 K-D Diff, 1.20 Rating. 81.4 ADR (was subbed on Nuke for Bubzjki as well)
*There were no positive stat-lines for the BIG Players in this match obviously with it being a pretty dominant 2-0 sweep.
MAPS:
*The two first ban maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Train for BIG. The typical first maps chosen lately for these two include Dust2 for BIG and Nuke for Astralis. Astralis has also taken a liking to Inferno lately however, and it has been a much better map for them in comparison to BIG and they could exploit this map as well as they barely won Nuke in the prior meeting 16-14. However, Astralis is going with Nuke near half the time as their first choice, so could easily see them stick with it.
*Astralis on Nuke (21 Maps): device 1.26 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 82.4 ADR. Gla1ve 1.07, Magisk 1.07, dupreeh 1.04, Xyp9x 0.88. On Dust2 (17 Maps): dupreeh 1.16 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 78.7 ADR. Device 1.15, Xyp9x 1.11, Magisk 1.08, gla1ve 1.04.
*BIG on Dust2 (20 Maps): syrsoN 1.17 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 77.9 ADR. XANTARES 1.11, tabseN 0.99, k1to 0.99, tiziaN 0.94. On Nuke (18 Maps): syrsoN 1.13 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 72.5 ADR. XANTARES 1.12, tabseN 1.02, tiziaN 0.97, k1to 0.91.
ANALYSIS: It does seem hard to think that BIG can win back-to-back matches against two top 3 teams in the World, but let’s just say I have seen way crazier things happen. The odds on this one is far closer than expected, and I think that is piggy-backed off the Vitality win for BIG. This IS another revenge spot here for BIG as they did lose to Astralis two matches ago. I think BIG has a bit of a confidence boost from the win, I think they play this one competitively and could see three maps if they can win Dust2.
*CASH PLAYS:
Tier 1: ZywOo, device, Grim
Tier 2: EliGe, stavn, cadiaN
Tier 3: NAF, TeSeS, Magisk, syrsoN
*GPP PLAYS:
Tier 1: NAF, SyrsoN, blameF
Tier 2: XANTARES, k0nfig, Twistzzz, dupreeh
Tier 3: Xpy9x, niko, RpK, misutaaa
*TOP STACKS (CASH): Vitality, Astralis
*TOP CONTRARIAN STACKS (GPP): Liquid, BIG