CS:GO DFS Playbook IEM Global Challenge 2020 (3-Matches)

BIG (Ranked 5th in World) @ Vitality (Ranked 1st in World):

Betting Odds: Vitality -435/BIG +300

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +130/Under -170

*This is the Group A opening best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020

*Not a team hotter in CS right now than Team Vitality, who are fresh off a Grand Final win over Astralis in the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Finals on Sunday in a 2-1 result. This makes for their fifth match win in their prior five matches. BIG have dropped two straight, so to say they will be hungry for a win here is quite an understatement. They have lost three of their last five matches to boot.

*Over the Last Month of Play for Vitality (20 Maps): ZywOo 1.35 Rating, shox 1.14, RpK 1.14, misutaaa 1.08, apEX 1.01.

*Over the Last Month of Play for BIG (32 Maps): syrsoN 1.15 Rating, XANTARES 1.12 Rating, tabseN 1.01, tiziaN 0.99, k1to 0.93.

*These two teams have played four matches recently in 2020 with Vitality winning all four meetings. The last two meetings went a full three-maps, while the latter two featured sweeps by Vitality.

*Vitality vs BIG (17 Maps): ZywOo +98 K-D Diff, 1.37 K-D, 1.35 Rating. Shox (15 Maps) +40 K-D Diff, 1.18 K-D, 1.11 Rating. RpK +3 K-D Diff, 1.01 K-D, 1.03 Rating.

*BIG vs Vitality (17 Maps): syrsoN +16 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.05 Rating. Only player in positive for sample.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Train and Overpass or Vertigo (both have been banning Train mainly lately). Over the last four matches played head-to-head, Dust2 has shown up all four times, Inferno three times, and Overpass, Nuke, and Vertigo once. I think within reason and with decent confidence we will see Dust2 and Inferno in this match. (Vitality have yet to lose an Inferno map with Nivera – 8 in a row)

*Vitality on Inferno (14 Maps): ZywOo 1.32 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.40 IMP, 85.6 ADR. RpK 1.11, misutaaa 1.10, apEX 1.07, shox 0.83 (*Remember Nivera will play for Shox here). On Dust2 (13 Maps): ZywOo 1.36 Rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 89.7 ADR. Shox 1.11, apEX 1.11, Misutaaa 1.07 (will likely be replaced by Nivera here), RpK 0.96.

*BIG on Dust2 (20 Maps): syrsoN 1.17 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.26 IMP, 77.9 ADR. XANTARES 1.11, tabseN 0.99, k1to 0.99, tiziaN 0.94. On Inferno (17 Maps): tiziaN 1.08 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.05 IMP, 80.3 ADR. syrsoN 1.04, XANTARES 1.01, tabseN 0.88, k1to 0.88.

ANALYSIS: Hard to bet against the number one team in the world, and I don’t intend on doing so here today either. Vitality fresh off a Grand Final win, playing the best CS in the world at the moment and this team is just clicking on cylinders. BIG could pull out a map win, it wouldn’t shock me, but on the other hand it would shock me less to see Vitality sweep easily.

 

Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World) vs Complexity (Ranked 10th in World):

Betting Odds: Astralis -625/Complexity +395

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +140/Under -190

*This is a Group A opening best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.

*Astralis were rolling in their own fashion before losing the Grand Final for the BLAST Premier Fall 2020 Event to Vitality on Sunday. They had won four matches in a row prior to the loss and will likely be looking to get back on track with a win in this match. Complexity has had around 10 days off since their last match in the DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Event where they suffered a 0-2 sweep at the hands of FURIA knocking them out of that tournament. They had dropped three of their prior five matches, as well. (*Note – Complexity will be playing with a stand-in for poizon, who is not with the team at the moment)

*Astralis Over the Last Month of Play (34 Maps): device 1.25 Rating, Dupreeh 1.11, Magisk 1.11, Xyp9x 1.02, gla1ve 1.01.

*Complexity Over the Last Month of Play (19 Maps): k0nfig 1.24 Rating, blameF 1.22, jks 0.96, RUSH 0.91.

*These two teams have played four matches recently in 2020 with them both splitting two match wins apiece. Astralis won the most recent match in a 2-0 sweep in the ESL Pro League Season 12, but it was after Complexity had swept them in this same event prior to. Complexity swept both of their wins, while Astralis swept one and the other win went three maps.

*Astralis vs Complexity (9 Maps): Magisk +22 K-D Diff, 1.13 K-D, 1.14 Rating. Dupreeh +8 K-D Diff, 1.05 K-D, 1.04 Rating. Device +6 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, 1.05 Rating.

*Complexity vs Astralis (9 Maps): k0nfig +12 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, 1.07 Rating. Only positive player for sample.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Mirage and Inferno. This likely puts Astralis on Nuke and Complexity on Dust2 (Mirage usual typical first pick for CoL, and Inferno usual first pick for Astralis lately.

*Astralis on Nuke (21 Maps): device 1.26 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 82.4 ADR. Gla1ve 1.07, Magisk 1.07, dupreeh 1.04, Xyp9x 0.88 (Bubzkji will play for xyp on Nuke reminder). On Dust2 (16 Maps): dupreeh 1.18 Rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 80.6 ADR. Device 1.13, Xyp9x 1.10, Magisk 1.06, gla1ve 1.03.

*Complexity on Dust2 (7 Maps): k0nfig 1.11 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 81.5 ADR. blameF 1.08, jks 1.04, RUSH 0.83. On Nuke (15 Maps): blameF 1.28 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 83.4 ADR. K0nfig 1.09, jks 1.07, RUSH 0.97.

ANALYSIS: It is really hard to think that Complexity will be able to win a map against Astralis as their typical first map choice in Mirage will be banned and they will be playing with a stand-in. Even though they have had ample time to unite someone on their team in preparation for this match, Astralis is just way too strong of a team and are off a Grand Final loss as well. Astralis likely 2-0 here.

 

NaVi (Ranked 4th in World) @ FURIA (Ranked 7th in World):

Betting Odds: NaVi -245/FURIA +180

Map Odds: 2.5 Over +100/Under -135

*This is a Group B opening best of three match for the IEM Global Challenge 2020 Event.

*Both of these teams are fresh off defeat with NaVi losing to Astralis in the BLAST Event recently, and FURIA losing to this team in NaVi for their exit out of that Event, as well. So, one could say that FURIA will absolutely have REVENGE on the brain in this one. Both teams haven’t exactly played the best lately, however it is worth noting that two of NaVi’s losses were both to Astralis, and one of loss for FURIA was to them, as well. Both teams have dropped three of their last five prior matches.

*NaVi Over the Last Month of Play (19 Maps): s1mple 1.39 Rating, electronic 1.17, Perfecto 0.99, flamie 0.92, Boombl4 0.89.

*FURIA Over the Last Month of Play (26 Maps): yuurih 1.19 Rating, HEN1 1.15, KSCERATO 1.12, VINI 1.03, arT 1.00.

*These two squads have played just the one match recently in 2020, with NaVi sweeping the match on Nuke 16-11 and Inferno 16-8.

*Top Players for NaVi vs FUR (Two Maps): s1mple 43-30 (+13 K-D Diff), 1.32 Rating, 83.6 ADR. Electronic 39-26 (+13 K-D Diff), 1.32 Rating, 78.1 ADR. B1T 19-13 (+6 K-D Diff), 1.41 Rating, 84.8 ADR.

*Top Players for FUR vs NaVi (Two Maps): No positive players for this match as it was a sweep, but arT had the best line per se at 39-41 (-3 K-D Diff) 1.16 Rating, 95.6 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first two ban maps for this match should include Dust2 and Vertigo. Think there is a good chance we see FURIA stick with Inferno as it has been their best map recently, even if they did lose 16-8 to NaVi on it in their prior match. I believe NaVi likely sticks with Nuke as well here.

*FURIA on Inferno (19 Maps): yuurih 1.23 Rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 80.7 ADR. HEN1 1.18, VINI 1.16, KSCERATO 1.15, arT 1.02. On Nuke (17 Maps): KSCERATO 1.18 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 81.5 ADR. HEN1 1.12, yuurih 1.06, VINI 1.06, arT 0.99.

*NaVi on Nuke (16 Maps): s1mple 1.28 Rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.33 IMP, 87.1 ADR. Electronic 1.14, flamie 1.04, Perfecto 1.03, Boom 0.98. On Inferno (13 Maps): s1mple 1.34 Rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 86.1 ADR. Electronic 1.15, Boom 0.97, flamie 0.95 (May see B1T sub here), Perfecto 0.95.

ANALYSIS: I really think the revenge factor plays heavy here as FURIA are a much better team than they showed in their recent meeting with NaVi. I am calling for the upset here, and in which I don’t feel will really be a huge upset because FURIA is really a good team. I like FURIA as a dog in this one, and likely should have lower-ownership because of it.

 

*Top Plays: ZywOo, Magisk, dupreeh, device, yuurih, KSCERATO, s1mple (one-off), blameF (one-off), syrsoN (One-off)

*Top Stacks: Astralis (Magisk/dupreeh/Magisk), Vitality (ZywOo/RpK/Nivera/shox)

*Top Contrarian Stacks: FURIA (KSCERATO/yuurih/HEN1/arT)