Monkey Knife Fight NFL Prop Plays: Week 7
Sean Mitchell pores through the data to bring you his top Monkey Knife Fight prop plays for Week 7 of the NFL season.
Welcome back to the fourth week of the Fantasy Alarm Monkey Knife Fight NFL props! Last week, there was much left to be desired as we finished 1-3 on the week. We will look to get back on track this week, and there are some props I really like!
Contest Name: Rapid Fire (Pays 3-to-1)
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
This is the rematch for these two teams from the second game of the season where they both combined for 65 points total. Burrow tossed for 316 total yards compared to just 219 for Mayfield. Tyler Boyd hauled in seven of his eight total targets on the day, while Baker was only able to hook-up with Beckham Jr. on four of his six targets as well. I will be honest, I was quite confused when I saw that Burrow was getting the yards and not favored the yards over Mayfield. We all know that the Bengals have given up quite a bit of yards to opposing running backs on the season, and we know that CLE loves to run the ball. With Joe Mixon already being ruled out and being the much better runner between he and Gio Bernard, I really could see more passing work being done between Burrow and Gio, as the Browns defense is actually quite good against the run. Boyd has been and will continue to be a popular target for Burrow, and I still think he has at least two more receptions than OBJ in this one. Boyd has either been the top-targeted WR in this offense in most games this season so far, or top 1-2 in all. Don’t mind taking this risk against OBJ with just having to cover a single reception, and we know Baker is not really known for his passing game work as well.
Contest Name: More/Less (Pays 3.5-to-1)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Position One: Alvin Kamara OVER 6.5 Receptions
Position Two: Mike Davis OVER 60.5 Rush Yards
I am going back to the well this week on Mike Davis over rushing yard prop. He had a much similar line last week at home against a very stout defense in the Bears and he managed only 52 yards rushing, however, he did get 18 totes total on the day, so the opportunity was there. This week the Panthers travel into New Orleans to take on the Saints, a team that has allowed three running backs to eclipse this total set forth for Davis already on their home turf. They allowed 66 to Ronald Jones in Week 1, 69 (nice) to Aaron Jones in Week 3, and lastly, 75 to Justin Jackson in Week 5. CMC is already pretty much all but listed out for this one, and Davis will get the lions share of carries once again, and I am backing him to get over this number this week. Kamara’s receptions prop line is a result of a couple things. Kamara has seen at least eight or more targets in four of the five games the Saints have played in so far, with three of those reaching double-digits. It was just recently reported that Emmanuel Sanders was placed on the Covid-19 this week and won’t be available, along with the fact that Michael Thomas has yet to practice any day this week and likely will sit, meaning the Saints will likely be without both this week. This will make the receiving options for noodle-arm Brees much thinner, and he will be looking at lots of dumps to Kamara.
Contest Name: Rapid Fire (Pays 3.5-to-1)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
I hate to try to base a prop off of a player’s injury history, but one half of this prop is solely being based on the fact that Johnson even stays in the game. With the emergence of Chase Claypool, it isn’t wrong to say that Johnson could easily lose some snaps with how good Claypool has been lately as well. Since Brown returned to action after dealing with his deep bone bruise in his knee he has been playing at yet a high-level once again as he did most of last season. Brown has received 16 total targets in his last two games since his return, catching 12 of those balls. I feel pretty strongly now that Brown is the top, and clear-cut, WR1 for this Titans offense, and not to mention he is somewhat match-up proof with his body-size. Tannehill has been crushing it lately, we all know this as well. Yes, the Steelerss defense has been good at times. Let’s not forget they have allowed at least 16 or more points to opposing teams in four of their five games played and they are playing against a 5-0 Titans team that has been throwing the ball really, really well. Tannehill has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his last three games, and Ben hasn’t topped 240 passing yards in four of his five games played so far this season. I think the Steelers will load the box against Henry, and this will likely have Tannehill throwing a bit more in this one, so love this prop for both Tannehill and Brown for that reason.
PROP 4: The Long-Shot
Contest Name: Rapid Fire (Pays 10-to-1)
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Position One: Matt Stafford +25.5 Passing Yards Over Matt Ryan
Not going to far into detail here as we know long-shot props are just tough to hit. However, I do like this one. Matt Ryan finally have a great game last week against a putrid Vikings defense and now he is giving up 25 pass yards to a much more capable passer than Cousins in Matt Stafford. Yes, please. Next, Julio had his day in the sun last week against that Vikings defense, but I will promise this Lions defense is much tougher against possession receivers like Julio, and this is why I will take the plus yards with Ridley. Hockenson getting 1.5 receptions was just too hard to pass up over Golladay seeing as how these two are so close in targets each and every game so far this season. Golladay only has one game I believe where he caught over four balls? Hock is getting 4-6 targets a game, and that was enough for me to take the receptions in that line. Lastly, Hurst over Amendola in receptions just seemed like an easy one. Amendola is clearly a third or fourth option for this Lions offense, and even though so is Hurst, I think he makes a few catches this week against a tougher pass defense in the Lions. So, there you have it!