Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO September 29
Sean Mitchell breaks down all three matches for Tuesday's ESL Pro League Season 12 slate with the Playbook!
What is up, everyone! We are back for some more CS:GO ESL Pro League Season 12 DFS! I decided to change-up the playbook, as I feel it is getting a bit stale, and to be flat-out honest, I was getting a little tired of writing the same format. I want to now focus solely on plays in each match, rather than listing out every single stat that comes to mind. Get more in depth on individual targets to look at, team stacks, chalk vs GPP (leverage) plays, etc. Let’s get to it!
BIG (Ranked 5th in World) vs Spirit (Ranked 19th in World)
In our first of three best of three matches of the day, we have an upper-bracket quarter-final between BIG and Spirit in the Europe Region. Looking at the current betting odds, BIG is listed as a -185 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both teams are in good recent form as BIG has won three-straight recently, while Spirit have won three of their last four, but are fresh off a loss in a 0-2 result to Astralis. These two teams have played three matches so far in 2020, with BIG winning all three. One match saw the full three-map distance, but there were only two best of three matches with one being a best of one. Here are the averages for each team when combining the stats for those three matches, as well as both teams last three overall.
BIG (Averages over L3 matches vs Spirit):
- SyrsoN – 40 Kills, 7 Assists, 26 Deaths, +5 First Kill +/-
- XANTARES – 38 Kills, 8 Assists, 29 Deaths, +7 First Kill +/-
- K1to – 31 Kills, 8 Assists, 32 Deaths, +3 First Kill +/-
- tabseN – 30 Kills, 13 Assists, 29 Deaths, -8 First Kill +/-
- tiziaN – 29 Kills, 12 Assists, 27 Deaths, +3 First Kill +/-
SPIRIT (Averages over L3 matches vs BIG):
- Mir – 35 Kills, 11 Assists, 36 Deaths, +10 First Kill +/-
- SDY – 30 Kills, 9 Assists, 31 Deaths, -5 First Kill +/-
- iDISBALANCE – 29 Kills, 9 Assists, 32 Deaths, +1 First Kill +/-
- Chopper – 25 Kills, 8 Assists, 33 Deaths, -7 First Kill +/-
- Magixx – 24 Kills, 6 Assists, 34 Deaths, -10 First Kill +/-
CAPTAIN’S CORNER (2 CAPT PICKS FROM MATCH):
1.) tabseN (BIG) $11,400 –
tabseN is literally the third cheapest captain option for this BIG team, and although his numbers head-to-head vs Spirit in terms of Kills are one of the lower on the team, he averaged the MOST assists of any other option. Looking at his last three match averages, he has led the team in Kills, second in assists, and has a +6 in First Kill +/-. To extend a bit further, tabseN notched out 74.5 DK fantasy points in their last meeting with a 1v2, 1v3, and TWO 4 kill rounds, not to mention nine first kills.
2.) mir (Spirit) $12,600 –
Mir is the fourth highest-priced option on this whole slate for a reason. He brings the most upside on his team, as you can see from his averages both against BIG and over his last three matches. He is averaging 9.2 First Kills over his last five matches, while also having at least one 4 Kill round in four of the five, with a 5 Kill round to boot in that span. Over the last month of play, he has led the team in most categories, including a 1.18 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.24 IMP, 81.0 ADR, and 75.0 Kill-Assist%, while also have a whopping 1.32 rating against Top 5 opponents (which BIG is 5th).
1.) syrsoN (BIG) $9,400 –
Decided to place syrsoN in a regular value role instead of CAPT, because of salary. syrsoN is the highest priced player on the slate, and for good reason. He has averaged the most assists over his last three matches on the team, while also having a ridiculous +25 First Kill +/-. Not to mention his 13.2 average First Kills over his last five matches, while including at least one 4 Kill round in four of the five, two 1v2 clutches, AND FOUR 1v3 clutches over that span as well. The guy has been playing out of his mind lately, and he will need to be included in a BIG stack.
2.) Chopper (Spirit) $5,000 –
Chopper hasn’t had the greatest numbers against BIG, but lately he has been playing pretty well. With 61 and 50.5 DK fantasy point totals against Mousesports and FaZe over his last two of three matches, he has been one of their top scorers in terms of fantasy points. He is second in average kills, first in assists, and has also averaged nine first kills over his last five matches played. The clutches and 4 Kill/5 Kill rounds have not been there, but first kills add an extra half a point to the 1.5 Kill score, so it adds up when averaging as many as he does lately.
Honorable Mentions for Stacks: tiziaN ($6,200), Magixx ($6,000)
NaVi (Ranked 8th in World) vs Mousesports (Ranked 21st in World)
Our second best of three match of the day is between NaVi and Mouse in the upper-bracket quarter final for the other side of the Europe region as well. NaVi comes in as the largest favorite on the slate at -250 on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams are in great form lately as well, as NaVi has won all five of their prior five matches, with three coming via the 2-0 sweep, while Mouse has also won three of their last five by the 2-0 sweep but have lost one of their last five as well. Interestingly enough, these two teams have played three times so far in 2020, with Mouse winning just one of the three matches.
NaVi (Averages over L3 vs Mouse):
- S1mple – 67 Kills, 11 Assists, 48 Deaths, +19 First Kill +/-
- Electronic – 61 Kills, 18 Assists, 52 Deaths, +16 First Kill +/-
- Boombl4 – 51 Kills, 14 Assists, 55 Deaths, -9 First Kill +/-
- Perfecto – 49 Kills, 16 Assists, 48 Deaths, +4 First Kill +/-
- Flamie – 46 Kills, 10 Assists, 57 Deaths, +11 First Kill +/-
Mouse (Averages over L3 vs NaVi):
- Ropz – 63 Kills, 9 Assists, 54 Deaths, +12 First Kill +/-
- Frozen – 53 Kills, 12 Assists, 54 Deaths, -2 First Kill +/-
- Chrisj – 44 Kills, 17 Assists, 56 Deaths, -12 First Kill +/-
- Karrigan – 44 Kills, 11 Assists, 60 Deaths, -23 First Kill +/-
CAPTAIN’S CORNER: (2 CAPT PICKS FROM MATCH):
1.) Electronic (NaVi) $12,000 –
Going with Electronic as a value CAPT pick here for NaVi. A couple of reasons why, he is $1.5K cheaper than S1mple, but his numbers versus Mouse are not really all that far off, plus he is averaging seven more assists over the that’s three matches played against Mouse. The last time these two played was in a Grand Final (Bes of 5), and Electonic put up 109 DK Fantasy points (S1mple 115), with 19 First Kills (S1mple 14), a 1v2 clutch, and two 4 Kill rounds (S1mple put up same clutch and 4Ks). I just think you can take the small amount of savings here on Electronic and get nice value as well as a CPT pick.
2.) ropz (Mouse) $10,500 –
Ropz is easily Mouse’s best player, and it’s really not that close. He pretty much smashes his teammates in the averages over their last three vs NaVi. Couple that with the fact that he has averaged roughly 70 DK fantasy points over his last five matches, makes him an interestingly contrarian captain on this slate for his price.
1.) S1mple (NaVi) $9,000 –
I think you can get away with a much better-looking lineup if you choose to go with NaVi and use S1mple as a value pick rather than a captain pick. I am not saying don’t try to fit him in as a captain, just pointing out there is value in saving that salary. Won’t find much players on this slate with the kind of floor that S1mple has, and if stacking NaVi, there is no way you aren’t playing him.
2.) frozen (Mouse) $6,600 –
I may likely not be playing Mouse much, if anything maybe a ropz one-off play, but if you want to stack them in being contrarian, you can look at frozen as the next option in terms of value. Frozen has topped 49 DK fantasy points in his last four of five matches, while also having the second-best numbers vs NaVi for Mouse. He was also the second-leading scorer in their most recent match against NaVi.
Honorable Mentions for Stacks: Perfecto ($6,400), Bymas ($5,800)
Complexity (Ranked 10th in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 22nd in World)
In our final best of three match of the day, we have Complexity and ENCE battling it out in the upper-bracket quarter final for Europe region as well. Looking at the current betting odds, the books are listing ENCE as a -195 favorite on the money line to win this match. Both of these teams have been on somewhat of a losing skid as Complexity has dropped four of their last five matches, while ENCE are on two-match losing streak of their own, while winning just two of their last five. We only have one prior head-to-head match for this match, so I wanted to note the top players for that one match. For ENCE, allu had the best day in this one with a 58-48 K-D, 1.13 Rating, and 77.6 ADR. For Complexity, it was k0nfig with the best overall line with a 66-52 K-D, 1.31 Rating, and 83.6 ADR. Since we don’t have a ton of data with head-to-head history, we will go straight into the play picks.
CAPTAIN’S CORNER: (2 CAPT PICKS FROM MATCH):
1.) k0nfig (Complexity) $10,800 –
Everyone always wants to play blameF, and for good reason, he is likely their best player, however, I think k0nfig has just as much upside on any given day. He was their top player against ENCE the lone match they played, and he has the 2nd best numbers on Complexity over the last month of play with a 1.21 Rating. He has also averaged a smooth 71.2 DK fantasy points over his last five matches.
2.) allu (ENCE) $13,200 –
I likely won’t be using much ENCE at my CAPT spot, but if I were to, it would be allu. Allu has been ENCE’s best player by far over the last month, and just in general. Allu has topped 58 DK fantasy points in three of his last four matches as well. He has also averaged almost nine first kills over his last five matches, with three 4 Kill rounds as well. Allu pretty much has the most upside of anyone on this team, and he showed it against Complexity in their lone match as well.
1.) poizon (Complexity) $6,600 –
Really like the price to match with a Complexity stack here with poizon. Poizon was playing some of his best CS in the first part of this tournament but has somewhat cooled off as of late. Hopefully, with a little time to get his head back right, he will be back in full-focus for this one. Poizon and his AWP are a top first kill option for Complexity, and he has averaged 9.2 First Kills over his last five matches as well. He has also recorded at least one 4 Kill rounds in each of his last four matches, with two 1v2 clutches to boot.
Honorable Mentions for Stacks: sunNy ($6,400), NaToSaPhiX ($5,600)