The NBA Playoffs continue to roll on and we have another two-game slate on tap for today featuring Game 4 of the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat series, and in the night-cap,  we will see Game 2 for the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers. Let’s see what we can uncover for our DFS lineups today!

 

GAME 1

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat (3:30 PM ET)

Betting Odds: MIA – 2, Total: 219

We have Game 4 of this series between the Bucks and the Heat set to kick-off a bit earlier than the last two- or three-day’s sets of games at 3:30 PM ET. The Heat have shown some major resilience and discipline so far in the first the games, over-coming a very close game in Game 2, while easily taking care of business in both Game 1 and Game 3. The Bucks are in a must-win situation today, as if they faulter in this one, they will be sent packing from the bubble in just the Eastern Conference semi-finals. Miami has won all three games with great defense, not allowing Giannis to get going (fully at least), and also not allowing the PACE to be dictated by the Bucks. Going into Game 4, they need not to change a thing, as their strategy has worked to perfection at the current moment. Stay behind Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic, play great disciplined defense, and control the tempo. Let’s talk about players to target in respective tiers.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS:

TOP TIER:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500 DK/$11,200 FD) – If there ever was a game that Giannis needed to have some redemption in, I do not believe he could find a bigger game to do so than Game 4 with his team’s back against the wall. Giannis has steadily increased his fantasy point productions over the first three games putting up 47.5, 53.5, and 60.5 DK points in Games 1, 2, and 3. So, to say he hasn’t been productive in terms of fantasy, is quite ludicrous. The fact of the matter here is that Giannis is still seeing the highest usage rate on the team at 32.1%, while carrying an 18.2 REB%, and 38.2 AST% for the first three games. He will need to play very big once again and continue to be the driving force of this Bucks team.
  • Khris Middleton ($8,100 DK/$7,500 FD) – Middleton has played really well, and consistently over the first three games also. He has put up 39.3, 41, and 47 fantasy points in those three games for a running average of 42.4 DK fantasy points. He is seeing loads of minutes, at least 33 or more in all three as well, and his usage rate is the 2nd highest on the team at 26.9%. After Game 2, it was much closer to Giannis’s usage rate, but with Giannis doing quite a bit more in Game 3, it lowered a smidge. Nonetheless, he is the clear second option on this team, and he is a great source of points, rebounds, assists, and steals.

MIDDLE TIER:

  • Brook Lopez ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – Lopez has literally played some of his best basketball in terms of shooting production in this series alone. Lopez has topped 29 fantasy points in all three, while taking 35 total FGAs, with 20 of those attempts coming via the three-ball, in which he has hit 10 of those for a 50% three-point% over that span. Pretty great numbers there for a starting Center if you ask me. However, what he is gaining in points scored, he is lacking a smidge in rebounding, as he has only averaged roughly 4.2 rpg, and this is not great for a starting Center against a smaller body in Bam Adebayo. Nonetheless, his defensive prowess has been better in this series as well, as he has totaled five swats, along with one steal in each of the three games, so this is great news. I think he is a great play on either site today, as the three-pointers help bigly on DK, but the defense boosts his value on FD, so I don’t mind playing on either site.

VALUE TIER:

  • George Hill ($4,200 DK/$4,500 FD) – Hill continues to play nice minutes off the bench, and he has now seen 31 and 36 minutes in this series (Bledsoe did sit in Game 1 as a reminder for the 36 minutes). However, it seemed he pushed Bledsoe a bit in Game 3 a little in the 4th quarter, as Bledsoe was struggling a bit offensively shooting just 2-for-9 total in Game 3, and this was a similar situation in Game 2 as well, as Bledsoe only shot 6-for-14 in that one. I think with Hill being as consistent as he has been, making big shots, playing good defense, I think he is in-line for another 28 or so minute outing in Game 4, and he has topped 18 fantasy points in his last two to boot.
  • Marvin Williams ($3,500 DK/$3,800 FD) – Marv Williams has been one of the more consistent first-player off the bench for the Bucks, and his minutes over this series back this up. Williams has now played 21, 22, and 22 minutes in the first three games of this series, and although his fantasy production hasn’t been great, we can safely have confidence in his minutes staying relatively the same. His shooting has been less than mediocre, as he has only shot 4-of-15 from the field in this series, including 0-for-5 from the three-point line, which is generally his bread-and-butter when on the floor for a PF. He has also been a great source of rebounds though, averaging 5.3 rpg, and has also recorded a steal in all three as well. If he can get a couple of shots to fall, he could easily exceed value, but he is still just a tourney punt at best once again.

 

MIAMI HEAT:

TOP TIER:

  • Jimmy Butler ($8,600 DK/$8,800 FD) – Jimmy was quiet in Game 2 (30.8 DK pts) after having a masterful performance in Game 1 with 53.5 DK points off of 40 actual, four boards, two dimes, two swipes, and one swat. Game 3 he came back for the bounce-back however, managing almost a 50-burger once again with a 30 actual, seven boards, six dimes, and one steal stat-line. Jimmy is one of the smartest, and toughest basketball players in the game today, and he has improved so much as a facilitator this season, as he was already a scoring juggernaut coming into this season. Butler is easily one of my top plays today, and he has come alive this series against the Bucks. He will likely be chalky, but I believe he will need to be on the roster today.
  • Bam Adebayo ($$8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – Bam has topped 46 fantasy points in two of the three games so far in this series, despite only having a 17.4% usage rate. He is averaging almost 16 ppg, 14 rpg, 4 apg, 0.8 bpg, and 1.0 spg. So, needless to say, he is filling up the stat sheet quite nicely in this series, and as mentioned above with Brook Lopez, Lopez isn’t crashing the boards too awful much, so it is literally Giannis that Bam is fighting in the trenches, and Bam has been the successor plenty of times as we can see by his rebounding numbers. I fully expect to see another active Bam, filling out the stat sheet once again in Game 4

MIDDLE TIER:

  • Goran Dragic ($7,200 DK/$7,200 FD) – Dragic is border-line a top-tier play, but since his pricing is a bit lower, I decided to place him in the middle-tier, but make no mistake, I really like this play once again today. Dragic has looked resurgent for a 34-year old veteran PG with Nunn being relegated to a bench role once the playoffs began. Dragic has played 34, 34, and 36 minutes in the first three games, while putting up 44, 40.3, and 33 fantasy points to boot. He is carrying the second highest overall usage rate behind Jimmy Butler (27.0% at 24.3%, and is averaging 21.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg, and 1.7 spg. Bledsoe, which has been typically known for his great defense, has not been much of a task for Dragic so far in this series. Dragic is more of a play on DK for me due to his three-point attempts, but he is absolutely in play on both sites nonetheless.
  • Jae Crowder ($5,600 DK/$5,100 FD) – Crowder is logging big minutes and putting up nice fantasy numbers as well. After only recording 19.8 DK points in Game 1, he has put up back-to-back 32 fantasy point efforts in Game 2 and 3, while averaging 16.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.1 apg, and 1.0 spg over that two-game span. He is only carrying a modest 16.4% usage rate, but he was never a high-usage player to begin with. Crowder can be an excellent source in most categories as we can see, and he is a bit more expensive on DK due to about 98% of his FGAs coming via the three-ball. However, he is a cheaper roster-filler on FD if need be, but as much as I hate paying near $6K for him on DK, I think his last two games have warranted the bump in price.
  • Tyler Herro ($5,300 DK/$5,100 FD) – Herro is listed as probable to play today due to a bruised right hip, but I think the probable tag was a precautionary measure for the Heat staff just to make sure. Herro has been excellent as well in this series coming off the bench for the Heat. He has now played 29, 32, and 31 minutes off the bench, and after a poor shooting game in Game 1, he righted the ship in the next two knocking down 9-of-24 shots, which isn’t the greatest, but when shooting 70% of those attempts in three-pointers, it adds up in fantasy points pretty quickly. It really hasn’t been his shooting over the last two games, in which he has put up 27.5, and 30.8 DK fantasy points in, it was his rebounding (6.2 rpg), and assists (3.1 apg), that really boosted his fantasy production on top of his scoring. We can expect another heavy load of minutes today for Herro in Game 4.

VALUE TIER:

  • Duncan Robinson ($4,500 DK/$4,500 FD) – I literally couldn’t find much that I like in terms of value for the Heat, simply because their rotations are not deep, and the starters are playing the heaviest minutes with basically Herro getting most of the run off the bench. Robinson hasn’t been much of an influence on the first three games in terms of fantasy production, however, he is still avg roughly 16 fantasy points a game, while playing 26, 27, and 30 minutes respectively in the three games so far as well. The minutes are there, he just hasn’t exactly shot well, and with a volume shooter like Robinson, he needs to knock down his shots. He has only shot 7-of-21 so far for the series, so we if rostering Robinson, you will be praying that he shoots much better in this one, as he doesn’t exactly contribute in many other categories besides scoring.

 

GAME 2

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers (8:30 PM ET)

Betting Odds: LAL -5.5, Total: 223.5

We have Game 2 in the Western Conference semi-finals between the Rockets and the Lakers for the nightcap of the slate beginning at 8:30 PM ET. Even with a 50+ fantasy point performance from Anthony Davis, and a 44-fantasy point outing from LeBron James, the Lakers still couldn’t over-come the three-point shooting of the Rockets to take Game 1, as the Rockets came away with a 112-97 win. The Rockets did what they do best in terms of shooting the long-ball, as they connected on 14-of-39 three-point attempts (35.9%) in comparison to Laker’s 28.9%. This was one major factor in this game, however, the Rockets actually played excellent defense as well, as they held LBJ (7-of-15) and AD (10-of-16) to sub-par games in terms of their usual production, (more so LBJ), but this was huge, as they limited LBJ’s assists numbers as well. The Rocket’s controlled the tempo, they pushed the PACE, and didn’t allow many long, quick-pass, transition buckets for the Lakers, which is usually one thing that sets the Lakers apart from most opponents. Harden played masterfully as well, which is always a plus, as he bounced-back quite nicely on the offensive end of the floor from Game 7’s abysmal offensive showing against OKC. The Rockets will need to continue doing what they did in Game 1, shoot the three-ball well, and continue to play heads-up defense in both half-court and transition. The Lakers need to guard the perimeter better, and look for more ways to get other teammates involved to get LBJ going. Let’s talk options.

HOUSTON ROCKETS:

TOP TIER:

  • James Harden ($11,200 DK/$11,000 FD) – As mentioned above, Harden was masterful in Game 1, doing what he does best – get to the free-throw line, as he did TWELVE times in this one. Other than that major facet, he shot 12-of-20 from the field, including 50% from the perimeter, while pulling down a couple boards, dishing five dimes, corralling two steals, and swatting one shot in route to a 51 DK fantasy point showing. There isn’t really much else to say here for Harden, and I don’t believe his rebounds will be like his regular season averages, as he isn’t generally going to get much more with the likes of LBJ/AD grabbing up 7+ a piece. However, we can expect the scoring numbers, along with the assist numbers, and more than likely the defensive numbers to sustain in this series.

MIDDLE TIER:

  • Russell Westbrook ($8,500 DK/$9,000 FD) – Westy started off the game slowly, but still found a way to top 44 DK fantasy points in Game 1 off of 24 actual points, nine rebounds, six assists, and a steal. He didn’t shoot well, as he did attempt the most FGs, only hitting 10-of-24, and 1-of-five from the perimeter, it was his rebounding and assists numbers that propelled him to a decent fantasy out-put. I believe we can expect similar numbers for Westbrook in Game 2, albeit likely a lower rebound total, but we can never count-out the try-hard king!
  • Robert Covington ($6,400 DK/$7,000 FD) – Cov has been one of the more consistent players for the Rockets not named Harden or Westbrook, and it is mainly due to him staying on the floor for long minutes, as he has now played 38, 39, and 39 minutes in his last three. He is a staple for this Rocket lineup, he has shot the ball really well over this span, despite only shooting THREE times in Game 1 against the Lakers, but he also fills the stat-sheet as he pulled down seven boards in that game, with FOUR steals, and a block. His defense has been amazing lately, and if he can find a few more shots, I fully believe he can be an excellent value once again.
  • Eric Gordon ($$5,900 DK/$5,600 FD) – Gordon notched out almost 32 fantasy points in Game 1 against the Lakers, as he put up 23 actual on seven-of-14 shooting, with three boards, one assist, and a steal. Gordon is majorly known for two things, his defense on bigger opponents, and his three-point shooting. He was also a perfect six-of-six from the charity stripe, and that’s another big facet of his game – getting to the free-throw line. Gordon’s prices are very affordable, and he is likely one of my favorite mid-tier values on today’s slate.

VALUE TIER:

  • P.J. Tucker ($4,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – Generally going to go with P.J. more preferred on DK, seeing as how all seven of his shot attempts in Game 1 came via the three-point line. Not to mention he is quite a bit cheaper on DK for Game 2 here as well. He also snagged up nine boards, one dime, and two steals in Game 1, which led him to almost 23 fantasy points over on DK. He has now put up 32.3, 29.3, and 22.8 DK points in his last three, and although his price is a bit up there, he is one of the sure bets to get 36+ minutes again in Game 2.
  • Danuel House ($4,300 DK/$4,600 FD) – House saw his price dip once again on DK, this time likely due to the fact that he missed half the game after being hit in the face and was lifted for the rest of the game due to precautionary reasonings of a concussion. He has cleared any and all protocols since then, and does not have any designations going into Game 2. House’s production saw a dip with the return and reinsertion of Eric Gordon into the starting lineup, relegating him back to a bench role, however, he is still seeing anywhere from 21-24 minutes a night in this role. The Rockets love this kid, and he plays his heart out when he is on the floor with great defense, rebounding, and the three-point shot. Love his price on DK today, and don’t mind it at all on FD either.

 

LOS ANGELES LAKERS:

TOP TIER:

  • Anthony Davis ($10,600 DK/$11,400) – As you can see, AD is much more-pricey on FD today, and getting him at $10.6K on DK seems like quite a steal. I am placing AD once again over LBJ, as I think the Rocket’s know how to deal a bit more with LBJ, but AD still presents them with their toughest task as he is such a larger opponent to deal with in their small-ball scheme. AD went for 56.5 DK points on 25 actual, with 14 boards, one dime, three blocks, and three steals. This is likely why he is much higher priced on FD – mainly due to his defense, and if you can fit him on FD, I wouldn’t argue with it one bit.
  • LeBron James ($10,800 DK/$10,500 FD) – I believe we do see a bigger game out of LBJ today, as he knows he is going to have to step-up in this series if he wants to win. After only going for 43.5 DK points in Game 1 off of 20 actual, eight boards, seven dimes, and two blocks, I think we see a heightened awareness to do more in Game 2 from King James here tonight. LBJ was actually the higher-usage play in this one next to AD, as he carried a 24.4% usage compared to 23.5% for AD. It is rough paying this number for LBJ, knowing you can pay just a little extra and get James Harden however.

VALUE TIER:

  • Alex Caruso ($3,800 DK/$4,400 FD) – Notice I didn’t even place anyone in the middle-tier for the Lakers? That is mainly because most of their production comes from the top-two players, meaning I want most of the value from the value for the Lakers, starting with Alex Caruso. Caruso has now put up 22.3, and 24.5 DK points in his last two games for the Lakers, and he only saw 16 minutes in Game 1 of this series due to getting three quick fouls early in the game, which allowed Rajon Rondo to see over 20 minutes in this one. Many will likely go to Rondo again, and his price is once again majorly affordable, however, I think Caruso learns from his mistake in fouling in Game 1 and sees the more minutes of the two tonight.
  • Rajon Rondo ($3,300 DK/$4,700 FD) – He got a major price-adjust on FD, but DK dropped the ball once again here. Rondo played 25 minutes in his return game since 3/10/2020, and put up eight points, three boards, four dimes, two steals, and a block in route to 22.8 DK points. Do I think he sees upwards of 25 minutes again? Not likely, I think he sees more around the 20-range. Still yet, making his value on DK still quite nice at his price. On FD however, I may look to pivot, as he will still likely end up chalky after his Game 1 performance.