are back for another NBA DFS Playoff slate! Today, we have two very exciting games on tap for us with the first game featuring the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat tipping off their third game of this series, as the Bucks look to get their first “W” in the win column for this series as the Heat lead 2-0. In our night-cap game, we have the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers kicking-off their series with Game 1. Let’s see what we can turn up for building some DFS lineups for this slate!

 

GAME 1

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat (6:30 PM ET)

Betting Odds: MIL -5, Total: 223.5

As we kick off Game 3 for this Bucks and Heat series, we have to stress the importance of the Bucks digging themselves out of a 0-2 hole here in Game 3. A loss in this game, and we can likely call this series a wrap with the Heat advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals over the number one-seeded Bucks. First, we can say we know the Bucks are favored by a decent margin at five points, so we can see that the books are expecting a bounce-back game here in Game 3. Game 1 was not exactly a close game in the Heat’s first win, however, Game 2 came down to the absolute wire with some very questionable calls to push this game into the hands of the Heat also with a foul to Jimmy Butler with literally zero time left on the clock allowing Butler to shoot a pair from the free-throw line that sealed the win and 2-0 series lead for the Heat. We know the Bucks will be out for blood in this match, and they very well should be. A few notable team stats from Games 1 and 2 I felt should be pointed-out include is that in Game 1, we saw the Heat shoot 92.6% (25/27) from the charity stripe, while MIL only shot 53.8% (14/26). We also saw Heat almost double the amount of points in the paint compared to MIL at 42 > 24. Another key factor was rebounding, and the heat out-rebounded MIL 53> 44 in this one as well. The biggest plus that we saw from MIL, and it showed in Game 2 as well, and think this is one of the most important facets that could lead them into a Game 3 win was points off of turnovers where MIL recorded 28 in this regard, compared to just 10 for the Heat. In Game 2, we saw MIL close the gaps on some of these discrepancies, as they out-rebounded the Heat 56 > 49, they also crushed them in the points in the paint category as well 52 > 32, and the big facets mentioned before – they scored 22 points off turnovers compared to just 13 for the Heat. One big stat that stood out for Game 2 that likely was a pit-fall for their loss, and need I remind it was a two-point loss, was MIL only shot a putrid 28% from the arc, while MIA recorded a 37.8% from the perimeter. Big difference when the three-balls are falling. Needless to say, we did see some major adjustments for the Bucks in Game 2, and they likely should have won that game. I think we see most of the same in Game 3, and I do think the Bucks come away with the win here. Let’s talk DFS stats.

The most important stat that we look at for DFS purposes is usage, and well minutes on the floor. Usage is a big deal when looking at what players you want in your DFS builds, as you want to play the guys that do get the most opportunities to accrue fantasy points when they are on the floor. Guys with higher usage rates typically do have the ball in their hands more, or the most. Lots of other things do go into this, in terms of peripherals, of course, and we will also look to include these as well. So, let’s talk usage leaders for the first two games of this series so far. For MIL, it is no shock that Giannis Antetokounmpo is the leader in usage at 29.8%. However, what is even more interesting and likely decently shocking is that Khris Middleton is nipping his heels literally at 29.7% for this span. Eric Bledsoe comes in the third spot with 24.3%, while it is Kyle Korver off the bench seeing the fourth highest at 18.8. Brook Lopez, George Hill, and Wes Matthews all share right around 15% a piece, while Pat Conny and Marvin Williams close the above 10% list at around 12% respectively. For the Heat, it is Goran Dragic sitting at the top of the usage chart with a 26.9% overall usage, while Jimmy Butler comes in second at 25.4. Then it drops off a smidge with Tyler Herro at 19.3%, Bam Adebayo at 18.0%, then it is Jae Crowder at 16.7%, and finally Duncan Robinson at 13.3% for the guys that are getting around 20ish minutes. One notable is Kelly O at 15.0%, but only 11.1 MPG average. The Bucks players have a bit more spread-out distribution when it comes to AST%, and REB% for the first two games. Giannis of course leads the REB% at 16.7%, while it is actually Bledsoe with the next highest at 10.9%. For AST%, it is Middleton at 21.0%, with Giannis at 19.4%, and George Hill right behind them at 18.0%. For the Heat, Bam is dominating the REB% category, as he sits with 19.0% there, with Jae Crowder being the next closest at 11.1%. In terms of AST%, Goran leads this category at 25.0%, with Bam Adebayo coming in next at 20.5%, and then Jimmy Butler at 19.5%. Tyler Herro notable at 13.5% also. Let’s talk options.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS:

Top: Giannis Antetokounmpo (High-usage, High price), Khris Middleton (High usage, 40+ fantasy points both games)

Middle: Eric Bledsoe (24.3% usage, 25+ fantasy points both games), Brook Lopez (29+ fantasy points both games)

Value: George Hill (over 20 fantasy points in Game 2), Kyle Korver (10 & 16 mins, 17.8 DK points in Game 1 – punt)

 

MIAMI HEAT:

Top: Goran Dragic (leads team in usage, 40+ fantasy points both games), Bam Adebayo (stat-sheet filler, avg 39 fantasy points over both games)

Middle: Jimmy Butler (saw upside in game one with 50+ fantasy points),

Value: Jae Crowder (35 and 36 mins, 20 and 33 fantasy points), Tyler Herro 29 and 32 mins, 31 fantasy points in Game 2)

***Kelly Olynyk and Andre Iguodala are both listed as QUESTIONABLE, so keep eye on these. Derrick Jones Jr./Kendrick Nunn could both see bump in playing time if one or both sit.

 

GAME 2

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 PM ET)

Betting Odds: LAL -6, Total: 226

We get a banger of a night-cap here in the first game of the Western Conference semi-finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Houston Rockets. These two squads have faced-off three times in 2020, and interestingly enough the Rockets have won two of the three regular season games played. All three games went over the total as well. Rockets obviously covered the spread in in two of the three, while winning straight-up as dogs in those as well. The Rockets were dogs in all three matches however. It is important to note that two of the three regular season games played, at least one team was missing one of the four stars in this match up whether it was Davis of LBJ out for LAL, or Westbrook or Harden for HOU (mostly Westbrook in this scenario). We know this will be a fast-paced game with the Rockets being a top 4 fastest team in the league for the season, and this total is surprisingly lower than all three totals that were set for the regular season games. Books must think that these two teams will maybe either slow it down for the playoffs, or on the other hand, may play a little defense? The Lakers were one of the best in defense efficiency and offense efficiency during the regular season, but had their struggles coming into the bubble. However, the Lakers took care of business seemingly easy in their first round against the Blazers in just five games, while the Rockets played all seven against the Thunder before winning the series placing them here in the semi-finals for the West. Obviously, we only have playoff data to go off of for this match for each team in their most recent round, however, we know these dynamics will change quite a bit with a new opponent. Looking over regular season data will only get us so far for these head-to-head matches as well as we know playoff rotations are a whole different animal compared to regular season rotations. With that said, let’s see what we can dig up for this for DFS purposes.

As always, we want to look at the usage leaders and how it is distributed over the team, so we will begin with the Lakers, so far for the playoffs, it is no surprise that LeBron James has led the team in terms of usage at 30.2%, with AD right behind him at 29.0%. The next meaningful usages to note are Kuzma (avg 24.2 mpg in playoffs) sitting at 19.2%, Caldwell-Pope (avg 26.2 mpg in playoffs) with 17.5%, an interesting one in Dwight Howard (avg 18.9 mpg) seeing 17.4%, next it is Danny Green and Javalle McGee seeing roughly 14% a piece to round out the notables. For Houston, again no shocker as Harden is the top usage guy at 31.9%, with Westbrook next at 28.6%. After them, Eric Gordon sits at 25.9%, Jeff Green next at 16.7%, Then it is House and Robert Covington sitting around the 15% mark to round out their notables. I think we all know there are way more studs in this game than in the MIL/MIA game, and I would do my absolute BEST to get as many of these in my lineups as possible. I think a stars and scrubs construction will be optimal tonight to be flat out honest. Let’s talk options.

LA LAKERS:

Top: LeBron James (usage leader, two double-doubles in both reg season games with missing trip-dub by one reb in one), Anthony Davis (do we need an explanation?)

Middle: Kyle Kuzma (over 21 mins all five gms vs POR), Dwight Howard (17+ fantasy points in four of five vs POR – should have size advantage over HOU as well), Danny Green (22 or more mins in all five vs POR – Over 18 fps last three)

Value: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (solid mins, around 15-20 fps), Rajon Rondo (making return, could see 18-20 mins, good value at near min-price)

 

HOUSTON ROCKETS:

Top: James Harden, Russell Westbrook

Middle: Robert Covington (been great lately), Eric Gordon (staple play, good usage, going to get his shots)

Value: Danuel House (nice mins off bench, good shooter and defense), P.J. Tucker (mins, mins, mins), Jeff Green (will need his size to match-up with AD and Howard, could be best value on slate)