Decided to go ahead and do the playbook over the Nine to Five 2 Dawn slate that begins at 3:00 AM ET tomorrow, so get those lineups reserved! These are best of threes, so back to our usual constructions of 3x3 and 3x2x1! Let’s go!
MATCH 1
CR4ZY (Ranked 55th in World) vs Lilmix (Ranked 121st in World)
Our first best of three match on the slate is a Group C opening match between CR4ZY and Lilmix. Looking at the current betting odds, CR4ZY is listed as quite a hefty favorite in this one at -280 on the money line. CR4ZY is fresh off a sweep over Unicorns of Love and have now won three of their last four best of three matches, with two of those coming via that sweep. Lilmix have won two of their last three, with the loss coming to LDLC in a reverse-sweep 0-2 loss. Interestingly enough, one of these two wins was against this same CR4ZY team in a 2-1 result. Since we do have this lone match to analyze for head-to-head data, let’s see who performed the best in it. Looks like for Lilmix, their top performer for this match is no longer with the squad, so the next top guy was Svedjehed who went 58-56 with a 76.4 ADR, and 0.99 ADR. Both Sergiz and SENSEi had nice days with DemQQ also finishing with a +9 K-D diff. Sergiz finished at 67-48 with a 1.35 rating, and 93.3 ADR to top the team, with SENSEi finishing at 61-44 with a 1.28 rating, and 77.1 ADR. Since this match was back in February, and we have new face on this Lilmix team, let’s see who has been playing well over the last three months. Bq has been the top guy (seven map sample) and it isn’t the prettiest of stat-lines with a 0.99 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 74.2 ADR. Over the last month for CR4ZY (48 map sample) SENSEi has been the top player for them with a 1.17 rating, 0.74 KPR, 0.57 DPR, and 74.6 ADR. Both Sergiz and DemQQ also have played above average with Sergiz sitting at 1.13, and Dem QQ at 1.05 over that span. Let’s see what the map data looks like for these two.
It seems to be pretty clear-cut here, as both teams have a particular ban, as well as a particular first map choice. The bans include Vertigo and Dust2, while CR4ZY is choosing Mirage as their first choice lately, and it has been rather good to them as they have won 60% of their tries there in their last 15 attempts. It is also worth noting that Nuke could easily be in play for them as well, as it is a map that Lilmix have lost their only two attempts on lately, while CR4ZY has won almost 80% of their last nine there. Lilmix has made Train their majority first choice map, winning it nearly 70% of their last three chances. I do think this will be the map pool, it really just depends on what map CR4ZY goes with, and it makes me really believe they go with Nuke, that is if Lilmix doesn’t ban it, as it is their 2nd highest percent banned map. Either way, I think it turns out to be Nuke and Train. Let’s see if any stand-outs appear for these two. For CR4ZY on their projected map choice of Nuke (nine map sample) DemQQ is the lead here with a massive 1.44 rating, 0.89 KPR, 0.65 DPR, 1.62 IMP, and 95.7 ADR. Three others follow him here with SENSEi at 1.35, Psycho at 1.24, and lastly, Sergiz at 1.15. Obviously, very good map for them. For Train (14 map sample) it is SENSEi at the top with a 1.06 rating, 0.67 KPR, 0.62 DPR, 1.06 IMP, and 71.3 ADR. There is no recent map individual data for Lilmix, as they have only played Train twice, but it has been their pick twice. The top performers for those two attempts were Kreaz (new player for PALM1, led the team in their last match on Train with a 66-43 K-D) and Svedjehed. Let’s talk options.
CR4ZY:
ANCHOR: SENSEi – (His KPR/DPR are both lovely, and he is their top carry mainly)
Top Stacking Options: SENSEi, DemQQ, Sergiz
LILMIX:
ANCHOR: Kreaz – (Numbers aren’t the greatest, but he beasted on Train in their most recent match so I feel he could be a high-upside play on a decently bad team)
Top Stacking Options: Kreaz, bq, Svedjehed (quix for value)
MATCH 2
Orgles5 (Ranked 181st in World) vs Excellency (Ranked 130th In World)
In our second best of three opening match of the day, we get another one out of Group C between Orgles5 and Excellency. Looking at the current betting odds for this match, it shows that Excellency is listed as a -230 favorite on the money line to win this match. First, this match is going to have lots of question marks, as both teams are playing with new cores. For both teams, their new core lineups have only played 5 maps together over the past month. Orgles5 has only had their core lineup in tact for just two matches, while Excellency has been together for five. So, basically this Orgles5 team is freshly new in the server, or newly constructed I should say, and they have played three matches lately, losing all three, with two of those coming as sweeps. Excellency hasn’t been that great either, only winning one out of their five more recent matches, with two of their last four being sweeps. Both of the teams are playing competition roughly close to the same level however. Since we have no head-to-head data for these two, let’s see who has performed the best over the last month or so. For Orgles5 (five maps) it seems that jayzaR is their go-to as he sits with a 1.32 rating, 0.91 KPR, 0.64 DPR, 1.28 IMP, and 88.9 ADR. The next best option for this span has been Ping at 0.99 Rating. For Excellency (six maps) NK4Y has been the top player sitting with a 1.01 rating, 0.70 KPR, 0.76 DPR, 0.97 IMP, and 75.9 ADR. Next closest to him has been HOLMES at 0.93 Rating, however it has been HOLMES with the top stats for the last month sitting at 1.02 rating. There is no map data to analyze for this match, as they two teams are two freshly new, so we will just have to go with what we have on this one. Let’s talk options.
ORGLES5:
ANCHOR: jayzaR – (has the best overall numbers since the reboot of this team, seems to be the carry)
Top Stacking Options: jayzaR, Ping, CYPHER
EXCELLENCY:
ANCHOR: NK4Y – (Seems to have a nice value price for this slate, and they are the favorite in this match as well. He has also topped the team over the last month)
Top Stacking Options: NK4Y, HOLMES, relax