Welcome back, all! We have another four-match slate as the CS_Summit 6 Event continues to roll on for CS:GO! We have a couple of finisher matches determining the 9th and 10th place finishers, as well as two upper-bracket semi-final matches. Let’s dig in!
Match 1
Fnatic (Ranked 5th in World) vs BIG (Ranked 7th in World)
Our beginning match of the day should be an absolute banger of a match and features two teams vying for a spot in the upper-bracket finals of the Europe region. BIG have continued to dominate winning four of their last five matches, all four wins coming via the 2-0 sweep, with their only loss being a 1-2 result to OG. Fnatic have also been on quite the tear lately winning for of their five matches, with three of those four coming via the 2-0 sweep as well. Their only loss being a 0-2 reverse sweep result to G2. The current betting odds have this match listed with BIG as a -155 favorite on the money line to win. Given how good BIG has been lately, this is not very surprising to say the least. These two teams do have a small bit of head-to-head data to analyze as well, with fnatic actually leading that series with five game wins to BIG’s two wins. BIG was the victor however in the only match these two have played so far in 2020 at the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe. That match did go the full three-map distance as well with BIG winning both Mirage (16-12) and Inferno (16-7), with the only win for fnatic being on Overpass with a score of 16-7. It is important to note that fnatic did beat them the prior two matches that had been played in 2019, both by a 2-0 margin. Last big thing to note here, the two matches in 2019 had two different players on the BIG team, so it is really tough to take those two into consideration. However, we can discuss the top performers in the most recent match that took place this year, which just so happened to be flusha with a 52-43 K-D, 1.24 rating, and 85.9 ADR for fnatic, and tabseN with a 60-44 K-D, 1.25 rating, and 83.1 ADR for BIG. Now, let’s see if we can target some projected map picks.
The two first ban maps for these two teams includes Vertigo for fnatic and Train for Big. The two typical first map choices lately for these two has been Dust2 for BIG (also on a seven-map win streak there as well) and Inferno for fnatic. I must say that Dust2 presents a pretty nice edge here for BIG, as fnatic has only shown to have a pretty putrid 33% success rate on this map over their last nine tries, compared to the win streak and 83% success rate for BIG over their last 23 attempts there. Not only does Dust2 present a nice edge for BIG, but even fnatic’s pick of Inferno is still in the favor of BIG in terms of success rate (BIG 70% over L10 maps played there, fnatic 67% over L18 played there). However, fnatic has almost doubled the amount of times played on Inferno than BIG has lately as well, so that could easily play into their favor. Let’s see who has been performing well on these two maps lately. For fnatic on their projected map choice of Inferno (18 map sample) flusha is the top guy here with a 1.10 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 83 ADR. Three other options follow him here starting with JW at 1.10, KRIMZ at 1.08 and Brollan at 1.07 to close it out. For Dust2 (nine map sample) flusha at the top here again with a 1.12 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 77.6 ADR. Only two follow here starting with KRIMZ at 1.06, followed by Brollan at 1.06. For BIG on their projected map choice of Dust2 (23 map sample) XANTARES leads here lately with a 1.24 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 80 ADR. All four other options sit above a 1.10 rating here also beginning with syrsoN at 1.22, tabseN at 1.19, tiziaN at 1.14, and last but not least, k1to at 1.12. For Inferno (10 map sample) XANTARES sits at the top once again with a 1.25 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 86.1 ADR. Once again followed by all four other teammates beginning with both tabseN and syrsoN at 1.17, k1to at 1.06, and lastly, tiziaN at 1.04. I just have to go with the chalk here in BIG, just feel their team is too strong and fnatic, although have really looked damn good lately, are just going to have quite too many issues against this BIG team. BIG has shown they can play top-tier, and they are definitely one of the top three teams in CS:GO at the moment in my opinion. Let’s talk options:
FNATIC:
ANCHOR: flusha – (Rates out on the top of both projected maps, has been really consistent lately, and has ability for multiple assists, and clutch/bonuses)
Top Stacking Options: flusha, Brollan, KRIMZ
BIG:
ANCHOR: XANTARES – (Kid is hella good, and just continues to get better every match it seems. Has big play ability and major upside, and typically is over-shadowed by both tabseN and syrsoN, but will make a nice value capt also to fit those big guns)
Top Stacking Options: XANTARES, syrsoN, tabseN (really all of this team is in play)
MATCH 2
ENCE (Ranked 17th in World) vs G2 (Ranked 3rd in World)
Our first best of three decider match of the day will be two squads playing for 9th and 10th place in the Europe region after winning their matches yesterday. ENCE took care of FaZe in just two maps, while G2 stumbled a smidge on their own map choice of Nuke to allow Movistar Riders to push them the full three-map distance before securing their win on the third and final map of Mirage. Looking at the current betting odds, G2 is favored by -192 on the money line to win this match today. These two teams have only clashed just once so far in 2020, but we do have some data from 2019 that we can analyze for head-to-head history as well. G2 has won all four of their prior matches, with only one of those four coming via the 2-0 sweep. Three of the four were allotted all three maps before G2 could secure the three wins. In their most recent win, G2 was able to hold ENCE to just six round wins in two of the three wins, obviously the two map wins they had in that match to ENCE’s one map win. As much as I’d like to go back and look into the past data, I believe looking back over a year ago will not do much justice, as G2 has Lucky on their team for two of these matches, so this obviously changes the make-up of the data. However, we can note the top performers in their most recent match. For G2, it was nexa that landed the top spot with a 59-43 K-D, 1.35 rating, and 94.6 ADR. Both huNter- and JaCkz came in with the next best stat-lines with both securing a 52 and 53 frags as well. For ENCE, Aerial top the list with the most frags on the team with the best rating of 1.04 as well, and ADR of just 78.8. allu secured the best K-D differential at a whopping 0 after going 41-41 K-D. Let’s take a look at some projected map picks.
The first two ban maps for these two teams includes Overpass for G2 and Vertigo for ENCE. The first two map choices lately for these has been Dust2 for G2 around a 50% clip, with Train being the 43% pick for ENCE. In their most recent match, the two ban maps were as listed above, however, Mirage was the first choice for G2. Mirage also just so happen to be the only map ENCE won in that match, after losing their own map choice of Train in the first map played. In yesterday’s match with MRs, MRs banned Dust2 right off the bat, leaving G2 to go with Nuke instead of Vertigo, which is usually another typical map choice for them. The only issue I have with Dust2 for G2’s first map choice is the fact that ENCE took care of FaZe in yesterday’s match, who decided to choose Dust2 as their first map choice over their best map in Mirage. It is important to also note that ENCE is no slouch on Dust2, as they have a 67% win-rate on it over their last 12 attempts, compared to G2’s lowly 44% over their last 16 tries there. To say this raises my interest in seeing what map choice G2 decides to go with is pretty imminent, as I could literally see them throwing a curve ball and going with literally any of the top four maps in Nuke, Dust2, Inferno, or Mirage. Inferno is their least played, but best “edge” map with a win rate of 50% compared to ENCE’s 20%. Ideally, I believe they choose between Dust2 and Nuke. They may elect to take their chances on Dust2, even though it really hasn’t been that great of a map for them, however, it is one they have played the most lately and sometimes you have to go with what you know. Let’s just try not over-think this one and say we see Train and Dust2. Let’s see who has performed the best on these two maps lately. For ENCE on their projected map choice of Train (14 map sample) allu is the top dog here with a 1.32 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 83.1 ADR. Followed by three teammates here beginning with sergej at 1.15, suNny at 1.04 and what would be Jamppi, however Jamppi is still out. For Dust2 (12 map sample) allu also leads here with a 1.11 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 75.3 ADR. All other options also fit the bill here with SuNny sitting at 1.04, Aerial at 1.02, and sergej at 1.00. For G2 on their projected map of Dust2 (16 map sample) nexa is the guy here with a 1.10 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.04 IMP, and 74.5 ADR. All other teammates make the list here as well starting with huNter- at 1.05, AmaNEk at 1.05, JacKz at 1.04, and kennyS at 1.03. For Train (eight map sample) huNter- leads the team here with a 1.13 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 84.5 ADR. One other follows him here and that is kennyS at 1.05. I’ll just be brutally honest, I’m not just a huge fan of G2 here in this match after seeing ENCE dust FaZE on Dust2 yesterday and seeing G2 struggle against MRs on their own map choice yesterday puts a ton of question marks on this match. I think it either goes three maps, or ENCE gets a win here. I think the dog will bark once again for ENCE here. I could be totally wrong, but I feel they could easily win their own map choice of Train, and I think if G2 does end up going with Dust2, they will have a real legit shot at winning it as well. Let’s talk options.
ENCE:
ANCHOR: allu – (No need to really look at any other option for ENCE for captain today (don’t feel we see a back-to-back 20 frag performance from xseveN again) allu rates out on top of both maps and he typically excels on Train with is AWP, and Dust2 is also a good map for the AWP)
Top Stacking Options: allu, sergej, SuNny
G2:
ANCHOR: nexa – (nexa is always the third-wheel for this G2 and doesn’t get much respect, but the guys been good, real good actually)
Top Stacking Options: nexa, huNter-, kennyS
MATCH 3
FaZe (Ranked 4th in World) vs Movistar Riders (Ranked 33rd in World)
I’ll be a pretty happy camper when we get FaZe off the slates for a few days to be honest. They have just been brutally bad lately, losing four of their last five matches and all coming via the reverse sweep as well. I can’t exactly say much more here for the Riders either as they have dropped three of their last four, but at least they have been competitive and only have been swept once, to North however. As figured, FaZe is the largest favorite on the slate listed at -476 on the money line currently to win this match. These two teams played only one match in 2020, well only one match in recent past as well, in the ESL One: Road to Rio, where FaZe came out with the victory after playing a full three map match. Movistar Riders chose Overpass for their map choice and it granted them their only map win in this one but guaranteed them three maps as well. They did win it in a pretty convincing fashion holding FaZe to just nine round wins on that map. However, FaZe took care of business on both their map choice of Mirage (16-9) and on the decider map of Inferno (16-7). The top performers for this match for MRs were alex with the best stat-line of 58-48, 1.23 rating, 88.8 ADR, and also loWel with a 51-50 K-D and 1.02 rating. For FaZe, it was Harvard “rain” Nygaard leading the team in frags at 54, but it was broky who claimed the best stat-line after going 50-39 with a 1.20 rating. Let’s look at some projected map picks for this match.
The first two banned maps for these two teams include Vertigo for FaZe and Dust2 for MRs. FaZe continues to roll with Mirage as their typical first map choice roughly 40% of the time, and MRs have grown a bit of an affinity to Inferno lately picking it 40% of the time also. I am not ruling out Overpass here either, as it is a map they beat FaZe on in their last match, and it is their second most played map behind Inferno (18 attempts on Overpass – 26 on Inferno lately). I think that MRs do have a slight edge on both of these maps, one for the quantity of times played, and secondly for their success rates on both (54% on Inferno – FaZe 46%, and 39% on Overpass – FaZe 38%). I know splitting hairs a bit there on Overpass, and that might ultimately be the reasoning they have decided to move over to Inferno. With that said, I feel MRs will likely go with their strength, and that has been Inferno lately. Let’s see who is performing the best on Mirage and Inferno lately. For FaZe on their projected map choice of Mirage (13 map sample) no other than NiKo at the top with a 1.17 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 86.1 ADR. Next, three others follow starting with broky at 1.11, rain at 1.07, and coldzera rounds it out with a 1.06. For Inferno (13 map sample) broky tips the scales here with a 1.11 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.01 IMP, and 70.5 ADR. Three others meet the requirements here as well with NiKo at 1.09, coldzera at 1.05, and rain at 1.01. For Movistar Riders on their projected map choice of Inferno (26 map sample) alex leads the team here with a 1.15 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.12 IMP, and 76.8 ADR. Three teammates follow here beginning with mopoz at 1.12, loWel at 1.08, and EasTor at the threshold of 1.0. For Mirage (11 map sample) alex at the top once again with a 1.13 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.24 IMP, and 78.5 ADR. Only two others fit the bill here with mopoz sitting again in second with a 1.05 rating, and loWel again in third at 1.03. I think this match can go either way to be honest. If MRs ever can win the third map, they may be a pretty decent squad. It seems they can be highly competitive on their typical map choice, and even their opponents, and seem to faulter in that decider map. I really hate to side with FaZe again, but I feel they do have the better overall team, albeit as bad as they have been lately, and this could be the match they need to get back on track (considering they are a monster favorite here also). I hate to think that FaZe ends up major chalk here, but with them being such a big favorite, it could easily happen and boy that could turn into a disaster, but you kind of have to respect the books as well. Let’s talk options.
FAZE:
ANCHOR: NiKo – (NiKo continues to be the top fragger, but the best overall player lately has been broky, but I think NiKo ceiling is just a bit bigger)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, broky, rain
MOVISTAR RIDERS:
ANCHOR: alex – (Seems like the do-it-all for his team, generally the top fragger, and seems like the highest upside guy they have as well)
Top Stacking Options: alex, mopoz, loWel
MATCH 4
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 8th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 18th in World)
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again here – I don’t believe Gen.G is really that good. I hate to say I feel this is the easiest match of the day, but I do feel that EG will take care of business in this one. This is also pretty indicative by the books, as they are feeling pretty strongly as well about EG as they are the second largest favorite on the slate sitting at -315 to win this match. EG has been hot to say the least, they have been victors in four of their last four matches after dropping a 1-2 decision to MIBR. Two of the four have come via the sweep, and both of the 2-1 victories were over a very good FURIA team as well. Gen.G have been on a mini-win streak as well of their own as they have dealt both Cloud9 and Chaos a loss in their last two, sweeping Cloud9 as well. Hate to say that this win-streak likely ends today, as EG has holds a 10-game win record to Gen.G’s four game wins in their last four matches. HOWEVER, Gen.G has won two of the four matches played as well, with two of those being in the last three, so keep that in mind, good people. Since we do have some prior head-to-head data, let’s see who the top performers were for this sample. For EG (eight map sample) interestingly enough it is Elvis “Ethan” Presley who holds the best stat-line for this sample with a +31 K-D diff, 1.22 K-D, and 1.24 rating. Followed by Brehze with a +22 K-D diff, 1.17 K-D, and 1.11 rating, and Tarik with a +21 K-D diff, 1.14 K-D, and 1.15 rating (need to note that Gen.G is the only team he has a positive stat-line against over L3 months). For Gen.G (same eight map sample) autimatic is the only option sitting with a positive stat-line for this sample with a +6 K-D Diff, 1.04 K-D, and 1.08 rating. I’m somewhat puzzled at how Gen.G has been able to win the last two of three matches, yet not have over one player with a positive stat-line (WTF?). Shall we look at some projected maps?
The first two ban maps include Overpass for both as their first, but also EG is banning Mirage the second most in the event that Overpass is already banned due to Gen.G. Believe we can throw out both of these maps either way. Looks like the first choice for EG lately continues to be Nuke, and Train for Gen.G. Interestingly enough, looking at the three prior matches these two played so far in 2020, EG went with Inferno in two of those and Nuke once. Train was the constant for Gen.G so we can go ahead and pencil that one in, the question mark here will be does EG go Inferno again as they have in the past two, or do they go Nuke? After comparing success rates on both, it is apparent that EG has won seven-straight on Inferno lately, garnering a hefty 79% winning clip there as well, so I would feel pretty confident they go right back to it today in this one. Let’s see who has performed the best for these two squads on Train and Inferno. For EG on their projected map choice of Inferno (14 map sample) Ethan has been excellent here lately sitting at the top with a 1.25 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.44 IMP, and 82.1 ADR. All other options follow for Inferno beginning with Brehze at 1.17, CeRq at 1.14, Stanislaw and Tarik both round it out with a 1.07. For Train (eight map sample) Brehze leads here with a 1.10 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 76.5 ADR. CeRq follows at 1.09, Tarik and Ethan both close it out at 1.08. For Gen.G on their projected map choice of Train (11 map sample) the AWPer Autimatic leads Train with a 1.11 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.14 IMP, and 76.8 ADR. Only one other option follows here and that is BnTeT at 1.09. For Inferno (14 map sample) koosta is the lead here with a 1.14 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.19 IMP, and 80 ADR. Three others fit the bill here for Gen.G followed by BnTeT at 1.09, autimatic at 1.06, and s0m at 1.02. I’ll be honest, I’m still in quite the disarray trying to decipher how Gen.G has won two of the last three matches and feeling that I just have to play them in GPP. There is no two ways about it here. EG is literally going to be the mega-chalk today, no two ways about that either. If you want leverage, its Gen.G. Believe they are the most contrarian look on the slate, and EG doesn’t exactly scream as easy win as I mentioned in the first paragraph of this match write-up. I’m puzzled and perplexed to say the least that I am actually writing that, but as my good friend Wishbone once said “you gotta risk it for the biscuit, fam.” Ok, maybe he didn’t say that, but it still holds pretty true. Let’s talk options.
EVIL GENIUSES:
ANCHOR: Ethan – (While everyone floods with CeRq and Brehze, take a look at Ethan’s numbers against Gen.G, and his numbers on their projected map choice of Inferno, case closed)
Top Stacking Options: Ethan, Brehze, CeRq (tarik has best numbers against any team here as well for value)
GEN.G:
ANCHOR: autimatic – (Most consistent option they have, and the only one to have a positive stat-line against EG over L8 maps)
Top Stacking Options: autimatic, koosta, BnTeT
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: allu, XANTARES/tabseN/syrsoN, NiKo, nexa
Top Stacks: BIG, ENCE, EG, FaZe
Top Contrarian Stacks: Gen.G, Movistar Riders, Fnatic
Top Values: tabseN, Ethan, kennyS, loWel, autimatic, rain, k1to