Fresh off a day off where I got tied up, we are back yet again for another CS:GO slate for Wednesday, June 10th! Today we have another DreamHack Masters slate as near closer to the finals of this event. We have another 3-game slate on tap, so let’s get to it!
Match 1
Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World) vs MAD Lions (Ranked 13th in World)
We have a lower-bracket round three match-up today between Fnatic and MAD to see who will go on to the semi-finals of this bracket to face either Vitality or NiP on Thursday. The winner of that match will then go on to the final of the lower bracket. The current betting odds on this match are split right down the middle with both of these squads garnering a -115-money line to win the match. The Under 2.5 rounds is also a slight favorite as it is juiced up to -135. Both of these squads are fresh off victories in their prior matches, yet Fnatic took down a pretty good Complexity opponent, while MAD took care of business against Spirit as well. Spirit just looked out-played in their match with MAD, not taking anything away from MAD here, as they played pretty flawlessly in the 2-0 sweep. Fnatic needed three maps to secure their win over Complexity, and it if weren’t for the second map of Nuke going into OT, they likely would have swept them as well. Fnatic looked excellent in all maps considered, and really hit the throttle in the third and final map of Complexity (a map Complexity had won over 70% on as well) with a final result of 16-6. This should be a very competitive match today. Fnatic are likely very much in search of another major event title, as they have found themselves quite short in their last two. MAD will look to win yet another title as well after winning Flashpoint1. These two squads have only played once in 2020, that best of one coming from this DreamHack Masters tournament in the opening rounds. MAD prevailed on Mirage with a 16-10 final score in that best of one. With this being the only head-to-head data, we can resort to for analyzation, we will now go to the map data to see if it can present us with any edges.
The typical first two ban maps for these two squads includes Inferno for MAD, and Vertigo for Fnatic. The typical first two map choices for these two have been Mirage for MAD and Inferno for Fnatic. Since Inferno will likely be banned, we would likely see Fnatic go with Train, as it was their first map choice against Complexity, and it has been a middling-map for MAD with them only seeing a 56% success rate there in their last nine attempts, while Fnatic have won close to 80% of their last nine attempts there. I don’t believe Fnatic will mind Mirage, as it has been one of their most played maps lately, albeit the fact that they have not been that great on it (roughly 40% success over last 11). I do believe these will be the two maps we see however, so let’s take a gander at who has been performing well on these lately. For Fnatic on Mirage (14 map sample) KRIMZ leads the team with a 1.13 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 82 ADR. Three others follow with a rating above 1.0 for Mirage in Brollan with 1.07, Flusha with 1.02, and JW sitting at that threshold of 1.0. For their projected map choice of Train (nine map sample) Brollan towers quite nicely over the squad here with a 1.33 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.57 IMP, and 89 ADR. Next closest is KRIMZ at 1.22, flusha at 1.12, Golden at 1.09, and JW at 1.06. Good map for them usually. For MAD on their projected map choice of Mirage (10 map sample) no other than Bubz at the top with a 1.26 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 87.2 ADR. Followed up by acoR with 1.20, roeJ at 1.12, and sjuush at 1.05. For Train (eight map sample) the AWPer leads the way here in acoR at 1.20 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 68.5 ADR. Next is Bubz at 1.17, sjuush at 1.15, and AcilioN at 1.05. After analyzing these maps, I truly believe that this match is going to be so very close, as signified by the books currently. I do believe that this match could easily see three maps, making the stackability of this match quite good. Both of these squads have looked excellent on both projected maps, and I feel it will come down to the wire. If I had to choose, I would say that Fnatic totally destroyed Complexity on Mirage yesterday, and if they come with that type of energy against MAD on Mirage, they will likely win this match. I know within reason, Fnatic will likely garner some ownership on this slate, so if you are looking for contrarian, then MAD would be your option. Let’s talk options.
FNATIC:
ANCHOR: Brollan – (I could easily make a case for both Brollan and KRIMZ – both have looked amazing lately, KRIMZ will likely have the lower ownership of the duo)
Top Stacking Options: Brollan, Krimz, flusha
MAD LIONS:
ANCHOR: acoR – (Going with a bit of a value captain here in acoR, but his numbers for both projected maps are very solid, and his deaths per round are typically a bit smaller due to his AWP stealth skills)
Top Stacking Options: acoR, Bubzkji, roeJ
Match 2
Vitality (Ranked 10th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
We get our second match of the lower-bracket rounds here before seeing one of these teams advance to the finals to take on the winner of match one as stated above. NiP was victorious on Tuesday against Astralis, however they needed three maps and two OTs on the third map of Overpass to get the win. Vitality flexed its muscle a bit after also having to go the full distance of three maps in their most recent match against Heroic, winning that series 2-1 as well. With this match just getting the opponent of NiP, the current betting odds have not been listed as of yet for this match. However, these two teams are very familiar with each other, and this is a bit of a revenge spot for NiP, as Vitality has already claimed a 2-1 victory over NiP in this event just four short days ago. These two teams have played a total of five matches so far in 2020, with Vitality winning three of four, with one of those being a best of one for this event as well resulting in a 15-15 tie. These two played two matches as well in the ESL Pro League, splitting those two matches, with Vitality winning the most recent. Since we have quite a bit of head-to-head data here, I would like to list a few of the top performers for these two squads against each other in these prior matches. For Vitality, its no shocker the ZywOo has big numbers against NiP, and they have the most map data against them as well playing them on a total of 14 maps over the last three months. ZywOo sits with a +79 K-D Diff, 1.32 K-D, and 1.30 rating. Shox has the next best numbers and has often been labeled as the “NiP killer” sitting with a +33 K-D Diff, 1.13 K-D, and 1.11 rating. Those two being the only two for Vitality with positive K-D’s against NiP in that span. For NiP, nawwk has the best individual stats against VIT in that span, carrying a +30 K-D Diff, 1.11 K-D, and 1.11 Rating. REZ is the only other player with a positive K-D and he sits with a +18 K-D Diff, 1.07 K-D, and 1.12 rating. Let’s move on to the projected map picks for these two.
The two first bans for these two teams lately have been Train for Vitality and Dust2 for NiP, which Dust2 has been a typical first map selection for Vitality lately. The first typical choice for NiP has been Overpass. The next typical first choice for Vitality has been Nuke. A map that they own a slight advantage over NiP on lately as well. I do believe the two maps we could see here are both Overpass and Nuke. Let’s see who is performing well on these as of late. For Vitality on their projected choice of Nuke (15 map sample) no shock as ZywOo leads with a 1.27 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 85.5 ADR. Followed by only misutaaa at 1.01. For Overpass (six map sample) shox tips the scales with a 1.17 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 87.2 ADR. Followed by ZywOo at 1.11 and RpK at 1.02. For NiP on Nuke (nine map sample) nawwk leads the team with a 1.18 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.16 IMP, and 81.4 ADR. Next is Plopski at 1.08, and that rounds out the list. For Overpass (14 map sample) the AWP sits at the top in twist with a 1.28 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 79.8 ADR. Followed by REZ with 1.25, nawwk with 1.17, and Plopski with 1.13. I believe the NiP better practice a bit on Nuke before this match, as they looked putrid against Astralis in it on Tuesday, and I believe that history will likely repeat itself as three of their prior four best of three matches have gone all three maps. I could easily see this happening again here in this match. I believe the decider map could be Mirage, Inferno, or Vertigo. The only map that presents a big edge here would be Vertigo for Vitality, so likely see that one banned. I then believe Vitality will ban Mirage and we likely see Inferno as a decider, and this one is a middling map for these two teams and could go either way. Let’s talk some options.
VITALITY:
ANCOR: ZywOo – (No-brainer, dude is a freak of nature on the server)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, shox, misutaaa
NiP:
ANCHOR: nawwk – (Has the best overall individual numbers vs Vitality, and he has been good lately)
Top Stacking Options: nawwk, REZ, Plopski (twist has major value if NiP gets Overpass)
Match 3
G2 Ranked (Ranked 2nd in World) vs BIG (Ranked 24th in World)
G2 was able to fend off a pretty good resilience in NaVi in a two-map sweep, while BIG completely dominated a unprepared FaZe team in a 2-0 sweep. Both of these two squads will now face-off in the upper-bracket final to see who will advance to the grand finale for the Europe region. There is no betting line currently out yet as I am writing this, but I am sure this line will be pretty damn close to dead-even for both. This should be a very good match for this upper-bracket final match. BIG again, looked completely dominant on both Nuke and Dust2 yesterday, against FaZe who typically is very good on Dust2 also, but were dusted 16-5 on that map. G2 took care of business on both map pick of Mirage and Dust2. Mirage saw two OTs however before seeing G2 prevail 22-19, while Dust2 went a bit easier with a result of 16-12. These two teams have faced-off twice in recent memory, both being in 2019 however, and G2 won all three games in those two matches. The most recent being a best of one on Inferno, where G2 won 16-12. The other match was in the ESL Pro League Season 10 where G2 swept them 2-0. Not a great deal of head-to-head data here, so let’s see if we can narrow down some projected maps for any potential edges.
The first two bans for these teams include Train for BIG and Overpass for G2. The typical first map choices lately have been Dust2 for both. Depending on who gets first choice here, I could see G2 going with Vertigo in the event that they do not get Dust2. BIG have literally won at least 60% or more on every single map over the last few months to be quite frank. This doesn’t exactly bode well for G2. I would like to see this one being played on Dust2 and Vertigo honestly, and I think this could easily happen. Let’s see who is performing well on these two maps. For G2 on Dust2 (15 map sample) huNter- leads the list with a 1.10 rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.09 IMP, and 81 ADR. Nexa falls close as can be after with a 1.10 also, followed by all three others starting with KennyS at 1.09, JaCKz at 1.02, as well as AmaNEk at 1.02 also. For Vertigo (10 map sample) KennyS and his AWP love this map and sit with a hefty 1.30 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 83.5 ADR. Followed up by huNter- at 1.14, nexa at 1.10, AmaNEk at 1.07, and lastly JaCKz at 1.05. For BIG on Dust2 (20 map sample) syrsoN is at the top with a 1.21 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 76.2 ADR. Followed by all four other options starting with XANTARES at 1.20, tabseN at 1.17, K1to at 1.10, and tiziaN at 1.05. For Vertigo (10 map sample) tabseN has also been a beast here with a 1.40 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.37 IMP, and 100.1 ADR! Again, all other options follow starting with XANTARES again at 1.16, tiziaN at 1.14, syrsoN at 1.09 and lastly K1to at 1.08. After looking over the projected maps, I think that if BIG plays as good as they did against FaZe, they shouldn’t have much of an issue winning this match. As I have also watched FaZe plow over G2 in prior matches. It will rely solely on the play G2 here. If they faulter, it will be a bad day for them, as BIG didn’t seem to make really any mistakes against FaZe. Let’s talk options.
G2:
ANCHOR: huNter- (I believe the success of G2 will rely pretty heavily on two people – huNter- and KennyS. I believe huNter- is the lurker and although BIG typically covers their spaces well, he could find some holes if he’s clicking)
Top Stacking Options: huNter-, KennyS, nexa
BIG:
ANCHOR: tabseN – (I do believe we see Vertigo here, and his numbers are outstanding there over their last 10 tries there, if we get anything even close to his ceiling, it will be a large day)
Top Stacking Options: tabseN, syrsoN, XANTARES/K1to
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: ZywOo, tabseN, huNter-, Brollan/Krimz (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: BIG, Vitality, Fnatic, MAD, G2, NiP (ranked in order)
Top Values: REZ, acoR, shox, RoeJ, K1to, RpK (not ranked in order)