Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO June 2
Sean Mitchell brings you everything you need with his favorite plays, stacks, and values for Tuesday's BLAST CS:GO DFS slate!
Today’s article will be covering the 4-game later slate for the Blast Premier Spring 2020 series starting at 1:50 PM ET. Let’s jump in!
MAD Lions (Ranked 15th in World) vs Dignitas (Ranked 40th in World)
MAD Lions looked really, really good in a convincing win over fnatic yesterday in their best of one played on Mirage. The score when you first look at it, being 16-10, may insinuate that this was a closer match that what we saw on the actual server. MAD made all the right decisions in this one, and fnatic looked drained after getting down in the latter part of the map. That and the fact that Buzbkzji went completely nuclear on them with a 34/13 K-D, 199.5 ADR, and 1.93 Rating for the map. Pretty impressive stuff, and he was literally unstoppable, clearly the highest scoring player on the slate. Dignitas turned in their debut for the BLAST series but did not receive the same fate as MAD, as they were handed a loss by the hands of Mousesports by a final score of 16-10 on Train. I mentioned that in my article yesterday about the “rust” effect, and I really do believe this had a part to play in it. Dignitas has been on a decent lay-over since their prior match, and it takes a little bit of warming-up to get back to playing at such a high-level, especially against some of the better teams in the World. Today’s second best of one match for them will not be any easier, and if anything, much harder to be frank. MAD wiped away a few losses before 2-0 sweeping Mouse in the DreamHack series, and then drumming of fnatic yesterday, so their form has been excellent as of late. Dignitas will be looking to get back on the right track, as they have dropped three of their last five dating back to the Road to Rio. The current betting odds have the MAD Lions listed as -220 favorites on the money line to win match, and I think that is a pretty fair price to be honest after watching them against fnatic. These two squads have no prior head-to-head data, so let’s see if we can maybe hunt down a likely map pick for them to battle on.
The first two banned maps typically for these two teams has been Mirage and Inferno. The next two most banned have been Overpass and Vertigo. Leaves us with Dust2, Nuke, and Train. I could see MAD throwing out Train, as it is one of their least-played maps lately other than their typical first ban of Inferno. Dust2 has been a horrid map for Dignitas lately, losing five in a row there lately and five of their last 10 attempts. This leaving Nuke. Which just so happens to be the typical first map choices for both of these teams. So, why not see who is better there? I could easily see this play into both team’s strengths. It can also be noted that Dignitas has won four of their last four attempts on Nuke, but both teams bolster a win% there above 62% lately, with MAD winning almost 80% of their last nine tries. Interestingly, I hope this is the map selected. Let’s see if anyone has played well here lately to tip the scales. For MAD (eight map sample) Bubzkji of course is at the top here with a 1.25 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.32 IMP, and 89.1 ADR. I do believe he will be very chalky on this slate after his performance yesterday, so keep that in mind. Next after Bubz, sjuush sits with a 1.17, roeJ with 1.16, and acoR with 1.02. For Dignitas (nine map sample) hallzerk tops the list with a 1.24 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 80.0 ADR. Followed very closely by f0rest with 1.23, friberg with 1.12, and GeT_RiGhT rounding it out with a 1.08. I think that this match could turn out closer than we think here if this just happens to be the map picked. Both have good numbers on it, and it has been very good to Dignitas as of late. Just keep in mind this is only their SECOND major event map played in over two weeks. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Bubzkji – (Like we would go with anyone else, right? He will be uber chalk I would imagine, but MAD looking damn good lately)
Top Stacking Options: Bubz, roeJ, acoR
ANCHOR: hallzerk – (Was 2nd in frags yesterday to f0rest, but his numbers are pretty good here on Nuke. Feel like its pretty easy to pick either he or f0rest here at capt if going this route)
Top Stacking Options: hallzerk, f0rest, friberg
Triumph (Ranked 49th in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 16th in World)
We saw these two squads face off in the Road to Rio tournament, and it seems that Triumph has only played just two best of one matches since that tournament as well, so absolutely could see the “rust” effect here for Triumph. Cloud9 has a few of DreamHack matches under their belt already during the last week, while winning two of those three against some top talent in Gen.G and Evil Geniuses. The books are backing Cloud9 in this one pretty hard as they come in as a -275 favorite on the money line to win this match. As mentioned above, these two squads did face off in the RtR with C9 gaining a 2-1 result. Cloud9 comes into this one in pretty good form winning three of their last four matches against some top competition in Gen.G, EG, and also Team Liquid. Triumph did win their last two best of ones against RBG and Yeah (a couple of lower-tier teams), and have won three of their last four, but haven’t played tough competition lately. So, this could be a change of pace for them going back against a top-20 team like C9 here today. Only other advantage you could make a play here for Triumph is the fact that they have played C9 in the last month, so they somewhat know how they play in essence. The top players from their prior best of three in RtR were Grim for Triumph who lead the team with a 65/51 K-D, and both floppy and motm lead C9 with floppy getting a 69/57 K-D and motm with 60/51 K-D. However, this will just be one map, so keep that in mind. Let’s see if we can narrow down that map choice.
The first two maps to be banned for these two squads includes Mirage and Train. The next likely banned have been Nuke and Dust2. Leaving us with Overpass, Vertigo, and Inferno. Inferno has typically been the first map choice of C9 lately, but both squads have won this map over 60% lately. Overpass has also been good to both, both winning over 88% of their last attempts there. Vertigo is likely one to get banned as neither are scratching more than roughly 50% there lately. I think it comes down to Overpass and Inferno. I believe with Inferno being a more popular choice for them, as they have both played it a bit more lately, it will likely have the lesser chance of getting banned by either. Let’s see who has played well lately on Inferno. For Grim (16 map sample) Grim paves the way with 1.16 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.15 IMP, and 80.7 ADR. Followed by one teammate above a 1.0 rating in Curry sitting at 1.13. For Cloud9 (10 map sample) no shocker here in floppy leading the team with a 1.25 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 84.9 ADR. Followed up by oSee at 1.11, Sonic at 1.08, and motm at 1.08. I do believe this match favors C9, just feel that they are playing at a very high-level at the moment and don’t think Triumph will be on that same level. I think there is nice value in C9 for DFS. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Grim – (Easily their best player and can carry the team more often than not. He led them in their prior match against C9 in RtR, and am going with him mainly as a one-off play here today)
Top Stacking Options: Grim, Curry, Junior
ANCHOR: floppy – (the IGL for C9 and most of the time is the top dog for them carrying as well. His numbers are great, and he led team against this Triumph team last head-to-head match they played as well)
Top Stacking Options: floppy, oSee, motm/Sonic
FURIA (Ranked 8th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 14th in World)
Get one team off a loss yesterday in FURIA at the hands of MiBR, and we are awaiting the results of the Gen.G/Chaos best of one match as we speak as it has yet to kick off. Per the current betting odds, FURIA is listed as a -140 favorite on the money line to win this one. These two squads are pretty familiar with each other as they have played three matches already in 2020. The most recent being a 2-1 result in the favor of Gen.G during the Road to Rio event. Gen.G has actually won five of the last six games played in those three matches as well against FURIA, so head-to-head history is absolutely on their side here. FURIA will be looking to get back on track though, as they lost 16-13 to MiBR, which was a little bit of sweet revenge from MiBR returning the favor after FURIA swept them 2-0 in the opener for DreamHack Masters three matches ago. FURIA had been winners of three straight before the best of one loss against MiBR, taking down some highly notable teams other than MIBR included in Liquid and Chaos. Gen.G has lost two of their last three, losing to C9 in their most recent match prior to this best of one against Chaos, and also got swept by 100 Thieves three matches ago as well, however they were able to grab a win sandwiched between the losses in a 2-1 result of Evil Geniuses. Thought it was interesting to note that the average finish of maps lost for FURIA against Gen.G over their last three matches is 9.83 rounds won, meaning that they have averaged not even 10 round wins in their map losses. Pretty interesting stuff there. Let’s see if we can narrow down a map.
The first banned maps for these two squads have been Dust2 and Overpass. The second most banned maps have been Nuke and Train. Leaving us with Mirage, Inferno, and Vertigo. I could see FURIA strategy banning Train, as it is Gen.G’s typical first map chosen, and I could also see Gen.G banning Vertigo, as it is a map FURIA has won roughly 60% of their last 10 tries on. I think we could easily see this one land on Inferno, a middling map for both squads, and they have both played it over 10 times lately. Both are roughly winning Inferno around 55% of the time in those tries as well, so would make for a very interesting map selection if it were to fall this way. Let’s see who is performing the best on Inferno lately if it so happens to land on this map. For FURIA (12 map sample) KSCERATO leads the way with a 1.27 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. He is followed by HEN1 with 1.21, and yuurih with 1.13. For Gen.G (10 map sample) koosta tops the list with a 1.22 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 86.6 ADR. Followed by three other options above the 1.0 rating threshold with BnTeT at 1.15, autimatic at 1.07, and s0m at 1.03. When I first glanced at this match, I was blinded by the recent success of FURIA, and wasn’t being very open-minded to Gen.G, but the recent head-to-head history has me really believing that Gen.G can easily pull off this upset. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: KSCERATO – (Had a rough game against MiBR in which he ended up with a negative K-D, and only a 0.88 rating. I would expect a better performance in this match)
Top Stacking Options: KSCERATO, HEN1, yuurih
ANCHOR: koosta – (Can carry the team on any map, but there is nice value on this Gen.G team. Has nice upside and price is likely fair with FURIA being the favorite)
Top Stacking Options: koosta, BnTeT, Autimatic
MIBR (Ranked 18th in World) vs Chaos (Ranked 41st in World)
Again, wish we had the results of the Gen.G and Chaos match, but we must roll on. MIBR got the monkey off their back in their win over FURIA, and they really do have the tools to be a top team in the World. They have had a bit more time to get trk acclimated to the team structure and strategy, which will only help them going forward. MIBR comes in as a -205 favorite on the money line to win this match. Chaos have not been playing very high-caliber talent lately since their 1-2 loss to FURIA in their opener of DreamHack but have won four of their last four against the lower-tier teams in all best of ones. I think this match is very interesting. I want to see if leaf jumps right in, or slowly works his way into the team here. MiBR isn’t exactly the easiest first task, but they are beatable. These two squads actually met in the opening round of the DreamHack Masters, where MIBR shut them down with a 2-0 sweep, but this was pre-leaf addition. MIBR was led by a massive performance by fer in that match, fragging out 59 kills to only 29 deaths with a 92.4 ADR and 1.58 rating. Xeppaa led the way for Chaos in that one as well, with 44 frags compared to 40 deaths with a 1.09 rating. Let’s see if we can narrow down a map here.
The first two ban maps for these two includes Nuke and Vertigo. After that its Mirage and Train. Leaves us with Overpass, Dust2, and Inferno. Dust2 has been a good map to both, but Chaos have only played it three times lately compared to MIBR’s 13 attempts in that same span, I wouldn’t be shocked to see it banned. Inferno is the typical first choice for Chaos and a map that MIBR destroyed them on in their last match also, so I think we could potentially see this one land on Overpass. Let’s see who is playing well on Overpass. For MIBR (six map sample) fer tops the charts here with a massive 1.30 rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.40 IMP, and 91.9 ADR. Followed by kNgV- at 1.17, FalleN at 1.10, and TACO at 1.03. For Chaos (12 map sample) jonji could provide some massive cheap value as he sits at the top for Chaos with a 1.31 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.46 IMP, and 93.9 ADR. Followed by vanity at 1.20, leaf at 1.20, Xeppaa at 1.11, and steel at 1.02. I don’t want to try to call an upset here, as I think MiBR likely does win this match, but I do think it could be quite a bit closer than folks think. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: fer – (Has put up some monster lines already against Chaos, and he rates out at the top of quite a few map selections)
Top Stacking Options: fer, FalleN, kNgV-
ANCHOR: Xeppaa – (Best fragger, and most consistent player option they have had lately against tougher competition)
Top Stacking Options: Xeppaa, jonji, leaf
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: fer, Bubzjki, floppy, koosta, KSCERATO, Xeppaa (Not Ranked in Order)
Top Stacks: Cloud9, MiBR, MAD, Gen.G, FURIA, Chaos, Dignitas, Triumph (Ranked in Order)
Top Values (Under $7K): curry, motm, acoR, roeJ, Sonic, friberg, jonji (Not Ranked in Order)