Welcome back for another DreamHack Masters slate on this fine hump day! Today we have three excellent matches on tap, so let’s jump right into the mix!
Game 1
NaVi (Ranked 2nd in World) vs Vitality (Ranked 10th in World)
First time we will get to see both of these squads as we open up group play for the D Group. Both teams were in the Road to Rio event, with Navi only winning two of their five total matches for the event and dropping their final to by a sweep by Hard Legion and Syman. Was not a very good look at all. Vitality made it all the way to the lower bracket finals match where they were bested by G2 in a 2-1 result ending their run at the Road to Rio as well. They did finish in 4th place for the event though, while also taking home a swift $10k prize as well. Interestingly enough, the betting odds currently are favoring NaVi as they are listed as a -190 favorite to win this match. These two squads have played two matches so far in 2020, with NaVi grabbing a 2-0 sweep in their last match, and Vitality getting their own 2-0 sweep in the match before the more recent. They also played twice in 2019, with them both splitting those as well, both going the full distance of three maps as well. Obviously, Vitality comes into this match in much better form, winning three of their last four in that route to 4th place in the RtR, and with NaVi looking pretty awful against a couple lower-tier teams and getting swept in those matches also. Have to go with the dog in this one at the time in Vitality, as their competition has been better lately, and they played very well in Road to Rio. Let's take a look at some projected maps.
The two bans choices for these two teams lately has been Train for Vitality and Vertigo for NaVi. Both banning these maps at 97 and 100%, so think its easy to say those will be tossed out. The first map choices have included Dust2 for NaVi, and Nuke for Vitality. I could see Vitality going with some map strategy here however with Inferno, as Nuke has not been great to them lately only winning 33% of their last 11 tries there, while NaVi has won close to 60% in the same number of tries. On Inferno though, Vitality has a small edge with those percentages flipped for each team and Vitality is winning close to 60% while NaVi only roughly 33% there. I do believe we will see Dust2 and Inferno for the map choices. Let's see who is performing well on these. For NaVi on Dust2 (10 map sample) S1mple leads all options at a hefty 1.42 rating, 0.92 KPR, 1.54 IMP, and 89.3 ADR. Next is electronic at 1.25, and flamie at 1.04. For Inferno (eight map sample) S1mple is again at the top with a 1.24 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.34 IMP, and 80.9 ADR. Boombl4 with a 1.02 is the last option above 1.0 rating for Inferno. Let's take a look at Vitality for Dust2 (11 map sample) zyw0o leads the way with a 1.23 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 82.4 ADR. Followed by shox at 1.15 and that rounds out the options above 1.0. For Inferno (eight map sample) zyw0o has been excellent here as well sitting with a 1.40 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.51 IMP, and 91.3 ADR. Two follow him with apEX at 1.08 and misutaaa at 1.07. I still believe I am staying with the dog here in Vitality to win. Let's talk player options.
NaVi:
ANCHOR: s1mple - (Top fragger for team and its not even close, big numbers on the projected map picks as well)
Top Stacking Options: s1mple, electronic, flamie
VITALITY:
ANCHOR: zyw0o - (Maybe a top five player in the server at the time, excellent with the AWP and typically is the top fragger on just about all maps for this team. Projected maps look well here for him also)
Top Stacking Options: zyw0o, shox, apEX
Game 2
Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World) vs FaZe (Ranked 7th in World)
Get two power-houses in the World rankings here for CS:GO in our second match of the day between Fnatic and FaZe. The books are literally split on this match, as they have FaZe just a very slight favorite sitting at -120, but you also have to lay -110 if you want to wager on Fnatic as well. Both the Over and Under 2.5 maps are juiced to -115, so no true lean there as it seems either. FaZe barely squeaked out a win yesterday against Spirit in a three-map thriller as mentioned above. These two teams have only played one match in 2020, and it was a fnatic 2-1 win in the ESL Pro League in April. They also played in the same tournament but the season prior in 2019, where FaZe won in a 2-1 result. Both matches did go the full distance and that could be a reoccurring theme today I believe. Flusha and JW were huge in fnatic’s win over them in their most recent match, as flusha held a 67/51 KD, while JW went for 57/48 KD. NiKo ad Broky were the top fraggers for FaZe both securing over 50 a piece with Niko leading at 59/47 KD, and Broky at 50/49 KD. Let’s take a look at some projected maps to see if there are any map edges.
The first bans for these two is Vertigo. So, we can throw that one out pretty confidently. The next most banned map by Fnatic is Nuke, but I think they will likely ban Dust2, as it is a map they have struggled on lately losing their last five tries there in a row, while FaZe has won close to 70% of their last 12 tries. The first map choices lately have been Mirage for FaZe, as they have won over 80% of their last 11 tries, and Inferno for Fnatic, which has easily been their best map and they do have a slight edge there as well winning 65% of their last 17, compared to only 50% of FaZe’s last 12 there. Obviously, I think both of these teams can win their respective map choice. So, I could easily see this match coming down to a decider map, and I feel that map could likely turn into Overpass which is a slight advantage for fnatic lately. Let’s see who is performing well on Inferno and Mirage. For fnatic on Inferno (15 map sample) its flusha at the top with a 1.13 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Followed by JW at 1.11, Brollan at 1.09, and KRIMZ at 1.07. For Mirage (12 map sample) KRIMZ tips the scale at an admirable 1.20 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 86.3 ADR. Next is flusha at 1.10, Brollan at 1.07, and JW at 1.04. For FaZe on Inferno (10 map sample) NiKo slightly edges the lead with a 1.13 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 82.3 ADR. Followed up closely by both coldzera and broky at 1.12, and lastly rain at 1.06. For Mirage (10 map sample) NiKo is at the top once again with a 1.23 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 89 ADR. Coldzera sits next with a 1.18, broky at 1.15, and rain at 1.11.
FNATIC:
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (It either him or flusha, and I feel like KRIMZ is getting his head back into the game lately)
Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, flusha, Brollan
FAZE:
ANCHOR: NiKo – (no explanation needed, he is a top player and he makes a lot of plays and always has a nice floor)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, coldzera, broky/rain
Game 3
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 9th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 15th in World)
EG was a loser in their opening match of DreamHack group play at the hands of Cloud9 with a 1-2 result. Cloud9 made some excellent run-backs in the first and third maps to secure the win, but EG didn’t look horrible. The teams having a little time off after the Road to Rio could be messing with their return to play just a smidge I think as we have seen some really good teams look really bad in their opening rounds. Per the betting odds for this match, the books are backing Evil Geniuses and have them listed as -145 favorites on the money line to win. The Under 2.5 maps is juiced up a bit to -135, while you can get the over 2.5 maps at +105 currently. These two teams have faced off three times dating back to 2019, and the EGs have won two of the three, both by the sweep, however, Gen.G won their most recent match at the Road to Rio by a 2-1 result. The two losses were when Cloud9 was the team name, before they made the switch to Gen.G. So, technically, Gen.G won their only match they have played as the new name was given. Let’s take a look at some projected maps.
Both squads are banning Overpass at or above 50% lately, so we can likely toss that one. Another map that is getting banned roughly 40% by EG is Vertigo, So I believe we will see that one gone as well. The first map picks for these have been Nuke for EG and Mirage for Gen.G. I believe that Mirage will be more of an advantage for Gen.G here as both are winning a smidge over 65% there, however, EG has only played on Mirage a total of three times lately, while Gen.G has played it nine times, so more recent experience usually helps on a map in my opinion. Nuke is a toss-up, but in the same aspect as Mirage for Gen.G was, Nuke has been the most played map for EG lately at a total of 11 tries there, while Gen.G has only played there six times. Both are winning roughly 50% of their prior games on Nuke, so recent experience likely holds for me here on EG. I do think both teams can win their respective map choices here. Let’s see who is performing on these maps. For EG on Mirage (three map sample) CeRq sits quietly at the top with a 1.15 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.31 IMP, and 82.8 ADR. Next, Brehze sits with a 1.06 and that is all for EG above a 1.0 rating. For Nuke (nine map sample) CeRq also leads this map as well with a 1.15 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Also followed by Brehze at 1.14 and Ethan at 1.02 to round out above average ratings. For Gen.G on Mirage (eight map sample) koosta tops this map with a 1.22 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 85.8 ADR. Followed up with s0m at 1.18, BnTeT at 1.15, and autimatic at 1.13. On Nuke (six map sample) auitmatic leads the way at 1.12 rating, 0.70 KPR, 1.11 IMP, and 74.4 ADR. Only one other option sits above the 1.0 rating threshold for Nuke, and that is daps at 1.05. Very interesting numbers here that I think dictates this match going into the third map, and I highly think it will if these two maps we projected are in fact the ones chosen. Let’s talk player options.
EVIL GENIUSES:
ANCHOR: CeRq - (Going with the hot-hand for the projected map picks, and I think he will be a value captain with everyone plugging Brehze likely)
Top Stacking Options: CeRq, Brehze, Ethan
GEN.G
ANCHOR: koosta – (Could have a potential monster game on Mirage, and his numbers are some of the better looking lately)
Top Stacking Options: koosta, Autimatic/BnTeT, s0m
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: zyw0o, s1mple, NiKo, Krimz, koosta, CeRq (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Gen.G, Fnatic, FaZe, EG, Vitality, NaVi (ranked in order)
Top Values: CeRq, shox, rain, JW, Ethan, s0m, electronic (not ranked in order)