The DreamHack Masters continue to roll on and we get a few more matches from the C Group today. Let’s just right into the mix!

 

Game 1

FaZe (Ranked 7th in World) vs Spirit (Ranked 17th in World)

Spirit came out yesterday and shocked the Fnatic world when they 2-0 swept them on yesterday’s first match of the slate. If you had read my playbook for yesterday, then you were likely with me on Spirit. Did we expect a 2-0 sweep? Not exactly, but I wasn’t exactly ruling it out either. Spirit is a decent team. They have some heavy hitters on their team and, well Fnatic really hasn’t played well lately dating back to the Road to Rio. Today’s match will likely be quite a tougher task as FaZe has been playing very well lately and almost won the Road to Rio, only losing two matches the entire tournament. Those two losses just happened to be in the semi-finals for the upper bracket and the consolidation finals as well. FaZe got back on track yesterday against GODSENT however, and I expect them to continue this trend going into today’s match. I do think this match could go three maps though. Per the betting odds, the books aren’t feeling too awful comfy with FaZe either, as they are only a slight favorite in this one listed at -150 on the money line currently. The Under 2.5 maps is a slight favorite as well and is juiced up a bit at -125, and I have a feeling after we look at the map data that there will also be some value on the Over 2.5 maps at around even money at the time. So, without further ado, let’s see what the maps say.

First banned maps for these two include Vertigo as both the number one ban for each team. FaZe has banned this map around 75% of the time lately, so we can easily toss this one out. The next bans for these are Train and Overpass. The first picks for these two have been Dust2 for Spirit around 37% of the time, and Mirage for FaZe at 40%. I am pretty confident that these two maps will be chosen. Only event that it doesn’t is if FaZe gets first ban and bans Vertigo, I could see Spirit playing strategy and ban Mirage as this has easily been FaZe’s best map. I am going to assume it doesn’t go this way however, and we stick to Mirage and Dust2. Only other map could be Nuke, as it is FaZe’s 2nd most picked map for the first choice. Let’s see who is doing well on these maps. For FaZe on Dust2 (nine map sample) NiKo at top as we know it, with a 1.38 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.39 IMP, and 92.1 ADR. Followed closely by coldzera at 1.18, rain at 1.14, and broky at 1.09. On Mirage (ten map sample) no shocker here, NiKo leads again with a 1.23 rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 89 ADR. Followed by Cold at 1.18, broky at 1.15 and rain at 1.11. For Spirit on Dust2 (20 map sample) mir sits at the top with a 1.22 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Next is chopper at 1.13, sdy at 1.07, iDISBALANCE at 1.04, and lastly magixx with 1.0. For Mirage (12 map sample) Mir is there again at the top with a 1.24 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.35 IMP, and 86.9 ADR (pretty good for a 20-map sample). Followed by sdy at 1.17, iDISBALANCE at 1.10, magixx at 1.08, and lastly chopper at 1.06. I think it is pretty clear that if Spirit brings the same intensity and tenacity that they brought yesterday against Fnatic, that they can easily win this match as well. I have no doubt in my mind that this match goes the full distance as well, and I believe the value will be on Spirit once again. Let’s talk player options.

FAZE:

ANCHOR: NiKo – (Don’t feel you need much explanation here, dude is rock solid and has massive upside, but price will always work against him)

Top Stacking Options: NiKo, Coldzera, rain/broky

 

SPIRIT:

ANCHOR: mir – (like NiKo I think his numbers do a lot of the talking, hes rating leader on projected maps and his KPR is quite good on both as well. He tore up Fnatic yesterday, so let’s see how he does here, I think he will be fine)

Top Stacking Options: mir, sdy, chopper/iDISBALANCE

 

Game 2

Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World) vs GODSENT (Ranked 18th in World)

Fnatic was torched 2-0 yesterday as mentioned above my Spirit, and GODSENT is in a dog fight trying to push their match with FaZe to the third map as we speak. This match up should be a good one as we have two teams that are pretty dang close at the moment as far as talent-level goes. Especially with the addition of Farlig to GODSENT. Fnatic has yet to find a win in their last three matches. Per the betting odds however, the books are backing Fnatic quite heavily at the moment as they sit with a -320 favorite on the money line. The Under 2.5 maps is also juiced up quite a bit being listed as -155 to be a 2-0 sweep. These two squads do not have any prior head-to-head history lately, so these will be fresh looks for both. Let’s take a look at some projected maps for this one and see if there are any advantages here.

The first maps to be banned for these two squads is Vertigo by Fnatic and Mirage for GOD. The first picks are including Overpass for GOD, and Inferno for Fnatic. Edge number one will go to Fnatic here as they have won close to 70% of their last 18 tries on Inferno, compared to GOD only winning a putrid 9% of their last 11 showings there. For Overpass, this is a map that is split down the middle, and actually favors Fnatic as they have played it a total of 12 times lately winning 57% of those tries, while GOD has played it seven times and also have won roughly 58% of their recent tries. The only other scenario I could see if GOD going with Nuke over Overpass, and it does favor them a bit more as they have played it 13 times lately and won it roughly 70% of those times, while we saw Spirit pick Nuke also yesterday where they beat Fnatic like 16-4. I do actually think it will go this way. I feel pretty confident that we see Inferno and Nuke. Let’s see who is performing on these two maps lately. For Fnatic on Inferno (15 map sample) flusha has the highest rating lately at 1.13 and a 0.71 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Followed by JW at 1.11, Brollan at 1.09, and KRIMZ at 1.07. On Nuke (eight map sample) Brollan sits at the top with a 1.10 rating, 0.73 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 77.7 ADR. Next is flusha at 1.08, and JW at 1.06 which concludes options above a 1.0 rating threshold. For GOD on Inferno (8 map sample) Farlig is atop the list with a 1.23 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.26 IMP, and 74.7 ADR, followed by Maden at 1.08 and that concludes that list. For Nuke (12 map sample) Farlig is at the top once again with a 1.23 rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.33 IMP, and 80.4 ADR. Followed by zehN at 1.12, STYKO at 1.08 and Maden at 1.03. After looking over the numbers, I believe I have to agree with the books here and this is likely a major bounce-back spot for Fnatic. Maybe, there is a chance we get them at lower ownership as we did with MAD Lions two days ago after they had dropped back-to-back matches, except Fnatic has just lost one is only difference, but I think it could definitely be in the cards here. Let’s talk player options.

FNATIC:

ANCHOR: KRIMZ - (Even though they lost yesterday, KRIMZ showed me what I wanted to see, he responded well after have a rough first map and dominated the second map, however it wasn’t enough of a team effort to push the match the full distance. Going back to him here in match I think he should dominate)

Top Stacking Options: KRIMZ, flusha, JW/Brollan

 

GODSENT:

ANCHOR: Farlig – (Tops the list by quite the large margins on both projected maps for individual stats, and he is pretty good, but I likely won’t be playing anymore than a one-off of just in a hedge lineup, as I will be on Fnatic in this one)

Top Stacking Options: Farlig, STYKO, zehN/Maden

 

Game 3

100 Thieves (Ranked 11th in World) vs Gen.G (Ranked 14th in World)

This should be another fun match to end the day for DreamHack Masters. Two squads here closely ranked in the world making their first appearances in the DreamHack Masters C Group play. The books have no clue who is going to win this match, and they aren’t afraid to show their hand as they have 100T listed as the possible fav at -125 on the money line, however, there is no dog money to be had on Gen.G either as they are listed at -105 on the money line. Once again, the Under 2.5 maps played is juiced up in this one as well as it sits at -140 to play that route, while the Over 2.5 maps gets you +110. It is pretty odd that the Thieves are the favorite here however, as they played once in the Road to Rio event with Gen.G taking home the checkered flag in a 2-0 sweep with scores of 16-10 for both maps of Dust2 and Mirage. 100T actually comes into this with worse form, as they have dropped their previous two matches before this match, and Gen.G comes in excellently winning their last three matches (all by a 2-1 result), as well as four of their last five. Are the books throwing us a curveball on both of those lines? It seems awful fishy. Let’s take a look at the maps for any possible edges.

The first banned maps for these two squads include Overpass at 100% for 100T and 60% for Gen.G, so we can go ahead and toss that one out. The next most banned is Train and Nuke. I could likely see Gen.G banning Nuke if not given the option of Overpass. The first choices have been Mirage for Gen.G, which they have won 67% of their last nine on while 100T has only won 17% of their last six there. The first choice for 100T has been Vertigo, a map they have won 71% of their last seven tries on. I likely think these could be our two maps, so let’s see who is performing on these. For 100T on Mirage (five map sample) leading the charge is jkaem with a 1.07 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.27 IMP, and 82.9 ADR. He is the ONLY player with a rating above a 1.0 on Mirage lately for 100T. For Vertigo (six map sample) jks leads the way with a hefty 1.28 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.21 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Followed closely by jkaem at 1.23 AZR at 1.16, and both gratisfaction and liazz both at 1.10. For Gen.G on Mirage (eight map sample) koosta tops the charts with 1.22 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 85.8 ADR. Next is s0m with a 1.18, BnTeT with 1.15, and autimatic with 1.13. For Vertigo (five map sample) BnTeT leads with a 1.19 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.25 IMP, and 85.1 ADR. After him a small way is koosta at 1.08 and that concludes the players over a 1.0 rating threshold. I’ll level here, I think that both of these teams can win their respective projected map choices. I think it will go to a third map decider where I could see us going on Dust2. It is the third most picked map by Gen.G as their first choice, and they have won close to 60% of their last seven tries, but so has 100T. I really just think this match is a total toss-up. Books have thrown up some fishy lines and it just really doesn’t seem that there are many advantages. I have to go with Gen.G, as history is on their side with their prior match being a sweep for them at RtR, however we get the revenge narrative for 100T there as well in that aspect. Let’s talk options.

100T:

ANCHOR: jks – (leads team quite nicely on their projected map pick, think he could have a big map there)

Top stacking Options: jks, jkaem, gratisfaction

 

GEN.G:

ANCHOR: BnTeT – (Value capt here and potentially could get a lower ownership, as most will gravitate to koosta. Like the value here)

Top Stacking Options: BnTeT, koosta, s0m/autimatic

 

***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***

Top Plays: NiKo, BnTeT mir, KRIMZ, Farlig, jks (ranked in order)

Top Stacks: Fnatic, Gen.G, FaZe, Spirit, 100T, GODSENT (ranked in order)

Top Values: chopper, JW, Jkaem, s0m, sdy, Bymas (ranked in order)